Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

The dynamics of research networks in Brite-Euram

Network formation within the BRITE--EURAM program is investigated.Wedescribe the role of the hub of the network, which is defined as the setofmain contractors that account for most of the participations. We studytheeffects that the conflict of objectives within European research fundingbetween pre-competitive research vs. European cohesion has on theformationof networks and on the relationship between different partnersof the network. \\A panel data set is constructed including the second and third frameworkof theBrite--Euram program. A model of joint production of research results isusedto test for changes in the behavior of partners within the twoframeworks. \\The main findings are that participations are very concentrated, that isasmall group of institutions account for most of the participations, butgoingfrom the second to the third framework the presence of subcontractorsand singleparticipants increases substantially. This result is reinforced by the factthat main contractors receive smaller spill-ins within networks, butspill-insincrease from the second to the third framework.

Competitive location and pricing on networks

In this paper we consider a location and pricing model for a retail firm that wants to enter a spatial market where a competitor firm is already operating as a monopoly with several outlets. The entering firms seeks to determine the optimal uniform mill price and its servers' locations that maximizes profits given the reaction in price of the competitor firm to its entrance. A tabu search procedure is presentedto solve the model together with computational experience.

Median problems in networks

The P-median problem is a classical location model par excellence . In this paper we, firstexamine the early origins of the problem, formulated independently by Louis Hakimi andCharles ReVelle, two of the fathers of the burgeoning multidisciplinary field of researchknown today as Facility Location Theory and Modelling. We then examine some of thetraditional heuristic and exact methods developed to solve the problem. In the third sectionwe analyze the impact of the model in the field. We end the paper by proposing new lines ofresearch related to such a classical problem.

Morphometric shape analysis using learning vector quantization neural networks - an example distinguishing two microtine vole species

Closely related species may be very difficult to distinguish morphologically, yet sometimes morphology is the only reasonable possibility for taxonomic classification. Here we present learning-vector-quantization artificial neural networks as a powerful tool to classify specimens on the basis of geometric morphometric shape measurements. As an example, we trained a neural network to distinguish between field and root voles from Procrustes transformed landmark coordinates on the dorsal side of the skull, which is so similar in these two species that the human eye cannot make this distinction. Properly trained neural networks misclassified only 3% of specimens. Therefore, we conclude that the capacity of learning vector quantization neural networks to analyse spatial coordinates is a powerful tool among the range of pattern recognition procedures that is available to employ the information content of geometric morphometrics.

On circuit functionality in boolean networks.

It has been proved, for several classes of continuous and discrete dynamical systems, that the presence of a positive (resp. negative) circuit in the interaction graph of a system is a necessary condition for the presence of multiple stable states (resp. a cyclic attractor). A positive (resp. negative) circuit is said to be functional when it "generates" several stable states (resp. a cyclic attractor). However, there are no definite mathematical frameworks translating the underlying meaning of "generates." Focusing on Boolean networks, we recall and propose some definitions concerning the notion of functionality along with associated mathematical results.

The international development of the RGHQoL: a quality of life measure for recurrent genital herpes.

This paper describes the international development and psychometric testing of the Recurrent Genital Herpes Quality of Life Questionnaire (RGHQoL), a condition-specific quality of life (QoL) instrument. The theoretical foundation for the measure is the needs-based model of QoL and the content of the instrument was derived from in-depth qualitative interviews with relevant patients in the UK. Versions of the RGHQoL were required for the UK, USA, Italy, Germany, France and Denmark for use in international clinical trials. The results indicate that the final 20 item measure has good reliability, internal consistency and validity for all language versions. A small responsiveness study in Denmark suggested that the measure is sensitive to changes in QoL associated with the initiation of suppression treatment for recurrent genital herpes (RGH). It is concluded that the RGHQoL is a valuable instrument for inclusion in clinical trials. The psychometric properties of the instrument are such that it may also be used to monitor the progress of individual patients.

Attentional networks efficiency in preterm children.

Recent studies have reported specific executive and attentional deficits in preterm children. However, the majority of this research has used multidetermined tasks to assess these abilities, and the interpretation of the results lacks an explicit theoretical backdrop to better understand the origin of the difficulties observed. In the present study, we used the Child Attention Network Task (Child ANT; Rueda et al. 2004) to assess the efficiency of the alerting, orienting and executive control networks. We compared the performance of 25 preterm children (gestational age < or = 32 weeks) to 25 full-term children, all between 5(1/2) and 6(1/2) years of age. Results showed that, as compared to full-term children, preterm children were slower on all conditions of the Child ANT and had a specific deficit in executive control abilities. We also observed a significantly higher correlation between the orienting and executive control networks in the preterm group, suggesting less differentiation of these two networks in this population.

Phase II study of imatinib in patients with recurrent gliomas of various histologies: a European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Brain Tumor Group Study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the safety and the efficacy of imatinib in recurrent malignant gliomas. PATIENTS: AND METHODS: This was a single-arm, phase II study. Eligible patients had recurrent glioma after prior radiotherapy with an enhancing lesion on magnetic resonance imaging. Three different histologic groups were studied: glioblastomas (GBM), pure/mixed (anaplastic) oligodendrogliomas (OD), and low-grade or anaplastic astrocytomas (A). Imatinib was started at a dose of 600 mg/d with dose escalation to 800 mg in case of no toxicity; during the trial this dose was increased to 800 mg/d with escalation to 1,000 mg/d. Trial design was one-stage Fleming; both an objective response and 6 months of progression-free survival (PFS) were considered a successful outcome to treatment. RESULTS: A total of 112 patients (51 patients with GBM, 25 patients with A, and 36 patients with OD) were enrolled. Imatinib was in general well tolerated. The median number of cycles was 2.0 (range, 1 to 43 cycles). Five patients had an objective partial response, including three patients with GBM; all had 6 months of PFS. The 6-month PFS rate was 16% (95% CI, 8.0% to 34.0%) in GBM, 4.0% (95% CI, 0.3% to 15.0%) in OD, and 9% (95% CI, 2.0% to 25.0%) in A. The exposure to imatinib was significantly lower in patients using enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs. The presence of ABCG2 point mutations were not correlated with pharmacokinetic findings. No somatic activating mutations of KIT or platelet-derived growth factor receptor-A or -B were found. CONCLUSION: In the dose range of 600 to 1,000 mg/d, single-agent imatinib is well tolerated but has limited antitumor activity in patients with recurrent gliomas.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Genome-wide association study of major recurrent depression in the U.K. population.

OBJECTIVE: Studies of major depression in twins and families have shown moderate to high heritability, but extensive molecular studies have failed to identify susceptibility genes convincingly. To detect genetic variants contributing to major depression, the authors performed a genome-wide association study using 1,636 cases of depression ascertained in the U.K. and 1,594 comparison subjects screened negative for psychiatric disorders. METHOD: Cases were collected from 1) a case-control study of recurrent depression (the Depression Case Control [DeCC] study; N=1346), 2) an affected sibling pair linkage study of recurrent depression (probands from the Depression Network [DeNT] study; N=332), and 3) a pharmacogenetic study (the Genome-Based Therapeutic Drugs for Depression [GENDEP] study; N=88). Depression cases and comparison subjects were genotyped at Centre National de Génotypage on the Illumina Human610-Quad BeadChip. After applying stringent quality control criteria for missing genotypes, departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and low minor allele frequency, the authors tested for association to depression using logistic regression, correcting for population ancestry. RESULTS: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in BICC1 achieved suggestive evidence for association, which strengthened after imputation of ungenotyped markers, and in analysis of female depression cases. A meta-analysis of U.K. data with previously published results from studies in Munich and Lausanne showed some evidence for association near neuroligin 1 (NLGN1) on chromosome 3, but did not support findings at BICC1. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies several signals for association worthy of further investigation but, as in previous genome-wide studies, suggests that individual gene contributions to depression are likely to have only minor effects, and very large pooled analyses will be required to identify them.