A hierarchical multiclass support vector machine incorporated with holistic triple learning units

This paper proposes a new hierarchical learning structure, namely the holistic triple learning (HTL), for extending the binary support vector machine (SVM) to multi-classification problems. For an N-class problem, a HTL constructs a decision tree up to a depth of A leaf node of the decision tree is allowed to be placed with a holistic triple learning unit whose generalisation abilities are assessed and approved. Meanwhile, the remaining nodes in the decision tree each accommodate a standard binary SVM classifier. The holistic triple classifier is a regression model trained on three classes, whose training algorithm is originated from a recently proposed implementation technique, namely the least-squares support vector machine (LS-SVM). A major novelty with the holistic triple classifier is the reduced number of support vectors in the solution. For the resultant HTL-SVM, an upper bound of the generalisation error can be obtained. The time complexity of training the HTL-SVM is analysed, and is shown to be comparable to that of training the one-versus-one (1-vs.-1) SVM, particularly on small-scale datasets. Empirical studies show that the proposed HTL-SVM achieves competitive classification accuracy with a reduced number of support vectors compared to the popular 1-vs-1 alternative.

Can physical activity modulate pancreatic cancer risk?:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Numerous epidemiological studies have examined the association between physical activity and pancreatic cancer; however, findings from individual cohorts have largely not corroborated a protective effect. Among other plausible mechanisms, physical activity may reduce abdominal fat depots inducing metabolic improvements in glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity, thereby potentially attenuating pancreatic cancer risk. We performed a systematic review to examine associations between physical activity and pancreatic cancer. Six electronic databases were searched from their inception through July 2009, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, seeking observational studies examining any physical activity measure with pancreatic cancer incidence/mortality as an outcome. A random effects model was used to pool individual effect estimates evaluating highest vs. lowest categories of activity. Twenty-eight studies were included. Pooled estimates indicated a reduction in pancreatic cancer risk with higher levels of total (five prospective studies, RR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.52-0.99) and occupational activity (four prospective studies, RR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.59-0.96). Nonsignificant inverse associations were seen between risks and recreational and transport physical activity. When examining exercise intensity, moderate activity appeared more protective (RR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.52-1.20) than vigorous activity (RR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.85-1.11), but results were not statistically significant and the former activity variable incorporated marked heterogeneity. Despite indications of an inverse relationship with higher levels of work and total activity, there was little evidence of such associations with recreational and other activity exposures.

Six ways to leave unemployment

This paper uses a unique Portuguese dataset to examine the effect of access to unemployment benefits (UBs) and their maximum potential duration on escape rates from unemployment. In examining the time profile of transitions out of unemployment, the principal contributions of the paper are twofold. First, it provides a detailed state space of potential outcomes: open-ended employment, fixed-term contracts, part-time work, government-provided jobs, self employment, and labour force withdrawal. Second, it is able to exploit major exogenous discontinuities in the maximum duration of unemployment benefits to identify disincentive effects. While confirming strong disincentive effects, it is shown that use of an aggregate hazard function regression model compounds very different and even contradictory effects of the determinants of unemployment.

Valuing the recreational benefits from the creation of nature reserves in Irish forests

Data from a large-scale contingent valuation study are used to investigate the effects of forest attributes on willingness to pay for forest recreation in Ireland. In particular, the presence of a nature reserve in the forest is found to significantly increase the visitors' willingness to pay. A random utility model is used to estimate the welfare change associated with the creation of nature reserves in all the Irish forests currently without one. The yearly impact on visitors' economic welfare of new nature reserves approaches half a million pounds per annum, exclusive of non-recreational values. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change-linked range expansion of Nathusius' pipistrelle bat, Pipistrellus nathusii (Keyserling & Blasius, 1839)

Aim To examine the effect of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of Pipistrellus nathusii (Nathusius' pipistrelle) in the United Kingdom (UK).Location We modelled habitat and climatic associations of P. nathusii in the UK and applied this model to the species' historical range in continental Europe.Methods A binomial logistic regression model was constructed relating the occurrence of P. nathusii to climate and habitat characteristics using historical species occurrence records (1940-2006) and CORINE land cover data. This model was applied to historical and projected climate data to examine changes in suitable range (1940-2080) of this species. We tested the predictive ability of the model with known records in the UK after 2006 and applied the model to the species' known range in Europe.Results The distribution of P. nathusii was related positively to the area of water bodies, woodland and small areas of urbanization, and negatively related to the area of peat/heathland. Species records were associated with higher minimum temperatures, low seasonal variation in temperature and intermediate rainfall. We found that suitable areas have existed in the UK since the 1940s and that these have expanded. The model had high predictive power when applied to new records after 2006, with a correct classification rate of 70%, estimated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Based on climate projections, our model suggests a potential twofold increase in the area suitable for P. nathusii in the UK by 2050. The single most influential climate variable contributing to range increase was the projected increase in minimum temperature. When applied to Europe, the model predictions had best predictive capability of known records in western areas of the species' range, where P. nathusii is present during the winter.Main conclusions We show that a mobile, migratory species has adapted its range in response to recent climate change on a continental scale. We believe this may be the first study to demonstrate a case of range change linked to contemporary climate change in a mammal species in Europe.

Impaired endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is a novel predictor of mortality in intensive care

Objective: Endothelial function may be impaired in critical illness. We hypothesized that impaired endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is a predictor of mortality in critically ill patients.
Design: Prospective observational cohort study.
Setting: Seventeen-bed adult intensive care unit in a tertiary referral university teaching hospital. Patients: Patients were recruited within 24 hrs of admission to the intensive care unit.
Interventions: The SphygmoCor Mx system was used to derive the aortic augmentation index from radial artery pulse pressure waveforms. Endothelium-dependent vasodilatation was calculated as the change in augmentation index in response to an endothelium-dependent vasodilator (salbutamol).
Measurements and Main Results: Demographics, severity of illness scores, and physiological parameters were collected. Statistically significant predictors of mortality identified using single regressor analysis were entered into a multiple logistic regression model. Receiver operator characteristic curves were generated. Ninety-four patients completed the study. There were 80 survivors and 14 nonsurvivors. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, leukocyte count, and endothelium-dependent vasodilatation conferred an increased risk of mortality. In logistic regression analysis, endothelium-dependent vasodilatation was the only predictor of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio of 26.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3-159.5). An endothelium-dependent vasodilatation value of 0.5% or less predicted intensive care unit mortality with a sensitivity of 79% (CI, 59-88%) and specificity of 98% (CI, 94-99%).
Conclusions: In vivo bedside assessment of endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is an independent predictor of mortality in the critically ill. We have shown it to be superior to other validated severity of illness scores with high sensitivity and specificity.

An efficient feature selection method for mobile devices with application to activity recognition

This paper presents a feature selection method for data classification, which combines a model-based variable selection technique and a fast two-stage subset selection algorithm. The relationship between a specified (and complete) set of candidate features and the class label is modelled using a non-linear full regression model which is linear-in-the-parameters. The performance of a sub-model measured by the sum of the squared-errors (SSE) is used to score the informativeness of the subset of features involved in the sub-model. The two-stage subset selection algorithm approaches a solution sub-model with the SSE being locally minimized. The features involved in the solution sub-model are selected as inputs to support vector machines (SVMs) for classification. The memory requirement of this algorithm is independent of the number of training patterns. This property makes this method suitable for applications executed in mobile devices where physical RAM memory is very limited. An application was developed for activity recognition, which implements the proposed feature selection algorithm and an SVM training procedure. Experiments are carried out with the application running on a PDA for human activity recognition using accelerometer data. A comparison with an information gain based feature selection method demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

School Neighborhood Disadvantage as a Predictor of Long-Term Sick Leave Among Teachers: Prospective Cohort Study

This ongoing prospective study examined characteristics of school neighborhood and neighborhood of residence as predictors of sick leave among school teachers. School neighborhood income data for 226 lower-level comprehensive schools in 10 towns in Finland were derived from Statistics Finland and were linked to register-based data on 3,063 teachers with no long-term sick leave at study entry. Outcome was medically certified (> 9 days) sick leave spells during a mean follow-up of 4.3 years from data collection in 2000-2001. A multilevel, cross-classified Poisson regression model, adjusted for age, type of teaching job, length and type of job contract, school size, baseline health status, and income level of the teacher's residential area, showed a rate ratio of 1.30 (95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.63) for sick leave among female teachers working in schools located in low-income neighborhoods compared with those working in high-income neighborhoods. A low income level of the teacher's residential area was also independently associated with sick leave among female teachers (rate ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.18, 1.91). Exposure to both low-income school neighborhoods and low-income residential neighborhoods was associated with the greatest risk of sick leave (rate ratio = 1.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.27, 2.30). This study indicates that working and living in a socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhood is associated with increased risk of sick leave among female teachers.

The effect of sperm DNA fragmentation on miscarriage rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis

STUDY QUESTION Is there an association between high levels of sperm DNA damage and miscarriage?SUMMARY ANSWERMiscarriage rates are positively correlated with sperm DNA damage levels.WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADYMost ejaculates contain a subpopulation of sperm with DNA damage, also referred to as DNA fragmentation, in the form of double or single-strand breaks which have been induced in the DNA prior to or following ejaculation. This DNA damage may be particularly elevated in some subfertile men, hence several studies have examined the link between sperm DNA damage levels and conception and miscarriage rates.STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATIONA systematic review and meta-analysis of studies which examined the effect of sperm DNA damage on miscarriage rates was performed. Searches were conducted on MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library without any language restrictions from database inception to January 2012.PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODSWe used the terms 'DNA damage' or 'DNA fragmentation' combined with 'miscarriage', 'abortion' or 'pregnancy' to generate a set of relevant citations. Data extraction was performed by two reviewers. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Meta-analysis of relative risks of miscarriage was performed with a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed by the type of DNA damage test, whether the sperm examined were prepared or from raw semen and for pregnancies resulting from IVF or ICSI treatment.MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCEWe identified 16 cohort studies (2969 couples), 14 of which were prospective. Eight studies used acridine orange-based assays, six the TUNEL assay and two the COMET assay. Meta-analysis showed a significant increase in miscarriage in patients with high DNA damage compared with those with low DNA damage [risk ratio (RR) = 2.16 (1.54, 3.03), P <0.00001)]. A subgroup analysis showed that the miscarriage association is strongest for the TUNEL assay (RR = 3.94 (2.45, 6.32), P <0.00001).LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTIONThere is some variation in study characteristics, including the use of different assays and different thresholds for DNA damage and the definition of pregnancy loss.WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGSThe use of methods which select sperm without DNA damage for use in assisted conception treatment may reduce the risk of miscarriage. This finding indicates that assays detecting DNA damage could be considered in those suffering from recurrent pregnancy loss. Further research is necessary to study the mechanisms of DNA damage and the potential therapeutic effects of antioxidant therapy.STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)None.

CoMFA and homology-based models of the glycine binding site of N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor

Homology modeling was used to build 3D models of the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor glycine binding site on the basis of an X-ray structure of the water-soluble AMPA-sensitive receptor. The docking of agonists and antagonists to these models was used to reveal binding modes of ligands and to explain known structure-activity relationships. Two types of quantitative models, 3D-QSAR/CoMFA and a regression model based on docking energies, were built for antagonists (derivatives of 4-hydroxy-2-quinolone, quinoxaline-2,3-dione, and related compounds). The CoMFA steric and electrostatic maps were superimposed on the homology-based model, and a close correspondence was marked. The derived computational models have permitted the evaluation of the structural features crucial for high glycine binding site affinity and are important for the design of new ligands.

Associations between maternal characteristics and pregnancy-related stress among low-risk mothers: An observational cross-sectional study

Background: Pregnancy is viewed as a major life event and, while the majority of healthy, low-risk women adapt well to pregnancy, there are those whose levels of stress are heightened by the experience.

Objectives: To determine the level of pregnancy-related stress experienced by a group of healthy, low-risk pregnant women and to relate the level of stress with a number of maternal characteristics.

Design: An observational cross-sectional study.

Setting: A large, urban maternity centre in Northern Ireland.

Participants: Of the 306 pregnant women who were invited to participate, 278 provided informed consent and were administered one self-complete questionnaire. Due to the withdrawal criteria, 15 questionnaires were removed from the analysis, resulting in a final sample of 263 healthy, low-risk pregnant women.

Methods: Levels of stress were measured using a self-report measure designed to assess specific worries and concerns relating to pregnancy. Maternal characteristics collected included age, marital status, social status, parity, obstetric history, perceived health status and 'wantedness' for the pregnancy. Regression analysis was undertaken using an ordinary linear regression model.

Results: The mean prenatal distress score in the sample was 15.1 (SD = 7.4; range 0-46). The regression model showed that women who had had previous pregnancies, with or without complications, had significantly lower mean prenatal distress scores than primiparous women (p < 0.01). Women reporting poorer physical health had higher mean prenatal distress scores than those who reported at least average health, while women aged 16-20 experienced a mean increase in the reported prenatal distress score (p < 0.05) in comparison to the reference group of 36 years and over.

Conclusions: This study brings to light the prevalence of pregnancy-related stress within a sample representative of healthy, low-risk women. Current antenatal care is ill-equipped to identify women suffering from high levels of stress; yet a growing body of research evidence links stress with adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study emphasises that healthy, low-risk women experience a range of pregnancy-related stress and identification of stress levels, either through the use of a simple stress measurement tool or through the associated factors identified within this research study, provides valuable data on maternal well-being. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary fat and breast cancer survival: a systematic review and meta-analysis

As the number of breast cancer survivors increases worldwide(1), there is growing interest in the potential effect of dietary and lifestyle behaviours on overall prognosis. This is especially important as a cancer diagnosis is often referred to as a ‘teachable moment’(2) as patients seek information about lifestyle behaviours and so provision of evidence-based guidelines is essential. A positive association between dietary fat and breast cancer risk has been previously reported(3) but its influence upon breast cancer survival is unclear. The aim of this review and meta-analysis is to critically appraise the literature published to date and to conduct meta-analyses to pool the results of studies to clarify the association between dietary fat and breast cancer survival.
Relevant articles published up to March 2011 that examined dietary fat and breast cancer recurrence and survival were identified from searches in MEDLINE and EMBASE. Meta-analyses were conducted in which we evaluated the risk of all-cause or breast cancer death in women in the highest compared with the lowest categories of total fat intake (g/d) and per 20 g increase in intake of dietary fat. Multivariable adjusted relative risks (RR) and 95% CI from individual studies were weighted and combined using a random-effects model to produce a pooled estimate.
Twelve prospective cohort studies that investigated total fat intake (g) and breast cancer survival, and/or provided information on fat intake from which a linear trend could be estimated, were included in the analyses. There was no evidence of a difference in risk of breast cancer death (RR=1.14; 95% CI 0.86, 1.52; P=0.34) or all cause death (RR=1.73; 95% CI 0.82, 3.6; P=0.15) between the highest and lowest categories of total fat intake. Similarly, no significant difference in risk of breast cancer death (RR=1.03; 95% CI 0.97, 1.10; P=0.261) or all-cause death (RR=1.06; 95% CI 0.88, 1.28; P=0.52) was found per linear (20 g) increase in total fat intake.
The results of this systematic review and meta-analysis do not support an association between total dietary fat and breast cancer survival. Further investigation into the effect of specific types of dietary fat and breast cancer survival is of interest.

Do hens have friends?

Recent interest in positive welfare has encouraged consideration of the formation of socio-positive relationships in farmed species which may provide a means by which to manage positive states. We investigated in detail the existence of dyadic preferential associations in small groups of domestic laying hens. Spatial and temporal associations were examined in two contexts (day activity and evening roosting), within 8 identical pens of 15 laying hens over 8 weeks. Little aggression was observed. Social network analysis was performed to investigate correlations in who associated with whom using weighted degree (number) and binary (presence or absence) data for shared resource areas and proximity to other individuals. No consistent evidence was found for hens actively preferring others in their choice of resource area, or in companion proximity. Perch-roosting positions chosen by the hens were compared with data generated from a random-choice model. Hens showed no position preferences. Most dyads were never observed roosting together and, although some apparently perched together frequently, the low number of nights perching and proportion of nights spent together indicates these findings should be interpreted with caution. Overall, we found no convincing evidence of dyadic preferential relationships expressed by close active and resting proximities. Further work is required to confirm whether these findings hold true in other experimental contexts, are affected by social experience and if they hold in common with the progenitor sub-species. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Interobserver Reliability of Radiologists' Interpretations of Mobile Chest Radiographs for Nursing Home-Acquired Pneumonia

Objectives: To determine the interobserver reliability of radiologists' interpretations of mobile chest radiographs for nursing home-acquired pneumonia. Design: A cross-sectional reliability study. Setting: Nursing homes and an acute care hospital. Participants: Four radiologists reviewed 40 mobile chest radiographs obtained from residents of nursing homes who met a clinical definition of lower respiratory tract infections. Measurements: Radiologists were asked to interpret radiographs with respect to the film quality; presence, pattern, and extent of an infiltrate; and the presence of a pleural effusion or adenopathy. Interrater reliability was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient derived from a 2-way random effects model. Results: On average the radiologists reported that 6 of the 40 films were of very good or excellent quality and 16 of the 40 were of fair or poor quality. When the finding of an infiltrate was dichotomized (0 = no; 1 = possible, probable, or definite) all 4 radiologists agreed on 21 of the 37 chest radiographs. The intraclass correlation coefficient for the presence or absence of infiltrates was 0.54 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.38 to 0.69). For the 14 radiographs where infiltrates were observed by all radiologists, intraclass correlation coefficients for the presence of pleural effusions was 0.08 (95% CI -0.10 to 0.41), hilar adenopathy 0.54 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.79), and mediastinal adenopathy 0.49 (95% CI 0.21 to 0.76). Conclusion: In conclusion, the interrater agreement among radiologists for mobile chest radiographs in establishing the presence or absence of an infiltrate can be judged to be "fair." Treatment decisions need to include clinical findings and should not be made based on radiographic findings alone. © 2006 American Medical Directors Association.

Retinal pigment epithelial atrophy in patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration undergoing anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy

PURPOSE:: To evaluate the occurrence of retinal pigment epithelial atrophy in patients with age-related macular degeneration undergoing anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy. METHODS:: The study is a retrospective review. Eligible were patients with age-related macular degeneration and choroidal neovascular membranes treated with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor between October 2007 and February 2011; they were followed for >3 months, with fundus photographs and fluorescein angiography at baseline and with autofluorescence and near-infrared autofluorescence images at baseline and follow-up. Demographics, visual acuity, the type of choroidal neovascular membranes, the number of treatments performed, and the length of follow-up were recorded. Autofluorescence and near-infrared autofluorescence images were evaluated for the presence or absence of areas of reduced signal. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to investigate the factors that may be associated with progression of atrophy at follow-up, which was the primary outcome of this study. RESULTS:: Sixty-three patients (72 eyes) were followed for a median of 16 months (range, 3-36 months). Atrophy at baseline was observed in 47% (34/72) of eyes; progression of atrophy occurred in 62% (45/72) of eyes at the last visit. The number of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor injections received was statistically significantly associated with the progression of atrophy at follow-up (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.73; P = 0.02). CONCLUSION:: Atrophy was frequently observed in patients with age-related macular degeneration and choroidal neovascular membranes undergoing anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy.