Temporal and spatial dynamics of benthic invertebrate communities in an alpine glacier-fed alluvial system

Summary The present thesis work focused on the ecology of benthic invertebrates in the proglacial floodplain of the Rhone in the Swiss Alps. The main glacial Rhone River and a smaller glacial tributary, the Mutt River, joined and entered a braiding multi-thread area. A first part concentrated on the disruption of the longitudinal patterns of environmental conditions and benthic invertebrate fauna in the Rhone by its tributary the Mutt. The Mutt had less harsh environmental conditions, higher taxonomic richness and more abundant zoobenthos compared to the Rhone upstream of the confluence. Although the habitat conditions in the main stream were little modified by the tributary, the fauna was richer and more diverse below the confluence. Colonisation from the Mutt induced the occurrence of faunal elements uncommon of glacial streams in the upper Rhone, where water temperature remains below 4°C. Although the glacial Rhone dominated the system with regard to hydrology and certain environmental conditions, the Mutt tributary has to be seen as the faunal driver of the system. The second part of the study concerned the spatio-temporal differentiation of the habitats and the benthic communities along and across the flood plain. No longitudinal differentiation was found. The spatial transversal differentiation of three habitat types with different environmental characteristics was successfully reflected in the spatial variability of benthic assemblages. This typology separated marginal sites of the flood plain, left bank sites under the influence of the Mutt, and the right bank sites under the influence of the Rh6ne. Faunistic spatial differences were emphasized by the quantitative structure of the fauna, richness, abundances and Simpson index of diversity. Seasonal environmental variability was positively related with Simpson index of diversity and the total richness per site. Low flow conditions were the most favourable season for the fauna and November was characterized by low spatial environmental heterogeneity, high spatial heterogeneity of faunal assemblage, maximum taxonomic richness, a particular taxonomic composition, highest abundances, as well as the highest primary food resources. The third part studied the egg development of three species of Ephemeroptera in the laboratory at 1.5 to 7°C and the ecological implications in the field. Species revealed very contrasting development strategies. Baetis alpinus has a synchronous and efficient egg development, which is faster in warmer habitats, enabling it to exploit short periods of favourable conditions in the floodplain. Ecdyonurus picteti has a very long development time slightly decreasing in warmer conditions. The high degree of individual variation suggests a genetic determination of the degree-days demand. Combined with the glacial local conditions, this strategy leads to an extreme delay of hatching and allows it to develop in very unpredictable habitats. Rhithrogena nivata is the second cold adapted species in Ephemeroptera. The incubation duration is long and success largely depends on the timing of hatching and the discharge conditions. This species is able to exploit extremely unstable and cold habitats where other species are limited by low water temperatures. The fourth part dealt with larval development in different habitats of the floodplain. Addition of data on egg development allowed the description of the life histories of the species from oviposition until emergence. Rhithrogena nivata and loyolaea generally have a two-year development, with the first winter passed as eggs and the second one as larvae. Development of Ecdyonurus picteti is difficult to document but appears to be efficient in a harsh and unpredictable environment. Baetis alpinus was studied separately in four habitats of the floodplain system with contrasting thermal regimes. Differences in success and duration of larval development and in growth rates are emphasised. Subvention mechanisms between habitats by migration of young or grown larvae were demonstrated. Development success and persistence of the populations in the system were thus increased. Emergence was synchronised to the detriment of the optimisation of the adult's size and fecundity. These very different development strategies induce a spatial and temporal distribution in the use of food resources and ecological niches. The last part of this work aimed at the synthesis of the characteristics and the ecological features of three distinct compartments of the system that are the upper Rhone, the Mutt and the floodplain. Their particular role as well as their inter-dependence concerning the structure and the dynamics of the benthic communities was emphasised. Résumé Ce travail de thèse est consacré à l'écologie des invertébrés benthiques dans la zone alluviale proglaciaire du Rhône dans les Alpes suisses. Le Rhône, torrent glaciaire principal, reçoit les eaux de la Mutt, affluent glaciaire secondaire, puis pénètre dans une zone de tressage formée de plusieurs bras. La première partie de l'étude se concentre sur la disruption par la Mutt des processus longitudinaux, tant environnementaux que faunistiques, existants dans le Rhône. Les conditions environnementales régnant dans la Mutt sont moins rudes, la richesse taxonomique plus élevée et le zoobenthos plus abondant que dans le Rhône en amont de la confluence. Bien que les conditions environnementales dans le torrent principal soient peu modifiées par l'affluent, la faune s'avère être plus riche et plus diversifiée en aval de la confluence. La colonisation depuis la Mutt permet l'occurrence de taxons inhabituels dans le Rhône en amont de la confluence, où la température de l'eau se maintient en dessous de 4°C. Bien que le Rhône, torrent glaciaire principal, domine le système du point de vu de l'hydrologie et de certains paramètres environnementaux, l'affluent Mutt doit être considéré comme l'élément structurant la faune dans le système. La deuxième partie concerne la différentiation spatiale et temporelle des habitats et des communautés benthiques à travers la plaine alluviale. Aucune différentiation longitudinale n'a été mise en évidence. La différentiation transversale de trois types d'habitats sur la base des caractéristiques environnementales a été confirmée par la variabilité spatiale de la faune. Cette typologie sépare les sites marginaux de la plaine alluviale, ceux sous l'influence de la Mutt (en rive gauche) et ceux sous l'influence du Rhône amont (en rive droite). Les différences spatiales de la faune sont mises en évidence par la structure quantitative de la faune, la richesse, les abondances et l'indice de diversité de Simpson. La variabilité saisonnière du milieu est positivement liée avec l'indice de diversité de Simpson et la richesse totale par site. L'étiage correspond à la période la plus favorable pour la faune et novembre réunit des conditions de faible hétérogénéité spatiale du milieu, de forte hétérogénéité spatiale de la faune, une richesse taxonomique maximale, une composition faunistique particulière, les abondances ainsi que les ressources primaires les plus élevées. La troisième partie est consacrée à l'étude du développement des oeufs de trois espèces d'Ephémères au laboratoire à des températures de 1.5 à 7°C, ainsi qu'aux implications écologiques sur le terrain. Ces espèces présentent des stratégies de développement très contrastées. Baetis alpinus a un développement synchrone et efficace, plus rapide en milieu plus chaud et lui permettant d'exploiter les courtes périodes de conditions favorables. Ecdyonurus picteti présente une durée de développement très longue, diminuant légèrement dans des conditions plus chaudes. L'importante variation interindividuelle suggère un déterminisme génétique de la durée de développement. Cette stratégie, associée aux conditions locales, conduit à un décalage extrême des éclosions et permet à l'espèce de se développer dans des habitats imprévisibles. Rhithrogena nivata est la seconde espèce d'Ephémères présentant une adaptation au froid. L'incubation des oeufs est longue et son succès dépend de la période des éclosions et des conditions hydrologiques. Cette espèce est capable d'exploiter des habitats extrêmement instables et froids, où la température est facteur limitant pour d'autres espèces. La quatrième partie traite du développement larvaire dans différents habitats de la plaine alluviale. Le développement complet est décrit pour les espèces étudiées de la ponte jusqu'à l'émergence. Rhithrogena nivata et loyolaea atteignent généralement le stade adulte en deux ans, le premier hiver étant passé sous forme d'oeuf et le second sous forme de larve. Le développement de Ecdyonurus picteti est difficile à documenter, mais s'avère cependant efficace dans un environnement rude et imprévisible. Baetis alpinus a été étudié séparément dans quatre habitats de la plaine ayant des régimes thermiques contrastés. La réussite et la durée du développement embryonnaire ainsi que les taux de croissance y sont variables. Des mécanismes de subvention entre habitats sont possibles par la migration de larves juvéniles ou plus développées, augmentant ainsi la réussite du développement et le maintien des populations dans le système. L'émergence devient synchrone, au détriment de l'optimisation de la taille et de la fécondité des adultes. Ces stratégies très différentes induisent une distribution spatiale et temporelle dans l'usage des ressources et des niches écologiques. La dernière partie synthétise les caractéristiques écologiques des trois compartiments du système que sont le Rhône amont, la Mutt et la zone alluviale. Leurs rôles particuliers et leurs interdépendances du point de vue de la structure et de la dynamique des communautés benthiques sont mis en avant.

To select or to weigh: a comparative study of linear combination schemes for superparent-one-dependence estimators

We conduct a large-scale comparative study on linearly combining superparent-one-dependence estimators (SPODEs), a popular family of seminaive Bayesian classifiers. Altogether, 16 model selection and weighing schemes, 58 benchmark data sets, and various statistical tests are employed. This paper's main contributions are threefold. First, it formally presents each scheme's definition, rationale, and time complexity and hence can serve as a comprehensive reference for researchers interested in ensemble learning. Second, it offers bias-variance analysis for each scheme's classification error performance. Third, it identifies effective schemes that meet various needs in practice. This leads to accurate and fast classification algorithms which have an immediate and significant impact on real-world applications. Another important feature of our study is using a variety of statistical tests to evaluate multiple learning methods across multiple data sets.

Analysis of linear networks with inconsistent initial conditions

This paper presents a new method to analyze timeinvariant linear networks allowing the existence of inconsistent initial conditions. This method is based on the use of distributions and state equations. Any time-invariant linear network can be analyzed. The network can involve any kind of pure or controlled sources. Also, the transferences of energy that occur at t=O are determined, and the concept of connection energy is introduced. The algorithms are easily implemented in a computer program.

Non-constant discounting in finite horizon: The free terminal time case

This paper derives the HJB (Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman) equation for sophisticated agents in a finite horizon dynamic optimization problem with non-constant discounting in a continuous setting, by using a dynamic programming approach. A simple example is used in order to illustrate the applicability of this HJB equation, by suggesting a method for constructing the subgame perfect equilibrium solution to the problem.Conditions for the observational equivalence with an associated problem with constantdiscounting are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the case of free terminal time. Strotz¿s model (an eating cake problem of a nonrenewable resource with non-constant discounting) is revisited.

Heterogeneous discounting in consumption-investment problems. Time consistent solutions

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza un model estocàstic en temps continu en el que l'agent decisor descompta les utilitats instantànies i la funció final amb taxes de preferència temporal constants però diferents. En aquest context es poden modelitzar problemes en els quals, quan el temps s'acosta al moment final, la valoració de la funció final incrementa en comparació amb les utilitats instantànies. Aquest tipus d'asimetria no es pot descriure ni amb un descompte estàndard ni amb un variable. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es deriva l'equació de programació dinàmica estocàstica, les solucions de la qual són equilibris Markovians. Per a aquest tipus de preferències temporals, s'estudia el model clàssic de consum i inversió (Merton, 1971) per a les funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA, comparant els equilibris Markovians amb les solucions inconsistents temporalment. Finalment es discuteix la introducció del temps final aleatori.

How the visual brain encodes and keeps track of time.

Time is embedded in any sensory experience: the movements of a dance, the rhythm of a piece of music, the words of a speaker are all examples of temporally structured sensory events. In humans, if and how visual cortices perform temporal processing remains unclear. Here we show that both primary visual cortex (V1) and extrastriate area V5/MT are causally involved in encoding and keeping time in memory and that this involvement is independent from low-level visual processing. Most importantly we demonstrate that V1 and V5/MT come into play simultaneously and seem to be functionally linked during interval encoding, whereas they operate serially (V1 followed by V5/MT) and seem to be independent while maintaining temporal information in working memory. These data help to refine our knowledge of the functional properties of human visual cortex, highlighting the contribution and the temporal dynamics of V1 and V5/MT in the processing of the temporal aspects of visual information.

Social and temporal organization in an ant colony

Ant colonies are known for their complex and efficient social organization that com-pletely lacks hierarchical structure. However, due to methodological difficulties in follow¬ing all ants of a colony, it was until now impossible to investigate the social and temporal organization of colonies. We developed a tracking system that allows tracking the posi¬tions and orientations of several hundred individually labeled ants continuously, providing for the first time quantitative long term data on all individuals of a colony. These data permit reconstructing trajectories, activity patterns and social networks of all ants in a colony and enable us to investigate ant behavior quantitatively in previously unpreceded ways. By analyzing the spatial positions and social interactions of all ants in six colonies for 41 days we show that ant colonies are organized in groups of nurses, nest patrollers and foragers. Workers of each group were highly interconnected and occupied similar spa¬tial locations in the nest. Groups strongly segregated spatially, and were characterized by unique behavioral signatures. Nurses spent most of their time on the brood. Nest patrollers frequently visited the rubbish pile, and foragers frequently visited the forag¬ing arena. In addition nurses were on average younger than nest patrollers who were, in turn, younger than foragers. We further show that workers had a preferred behav¬ioral trajectory and moved from nursing to nest patrolling, and from nest patrolling to foraging. By analyzing the activity patterns of all ants we show that only a third of all workers in a colony exhibit circadian rhythms and that these rhythms shortened by on av¬erage 42 minutes in constant darkness, thereby demonstrating the presence of a functional endogenous clock. Most rhythmic workers were foragers suggesting that rhythmicity is tightly associated with task. Nurses and nest patrollers were arrhythmic which most likely reflects plasticity of the circadian clock, as isolated workers in many species exhibit circadian rhythmicity. Altogether our results emphasize that ant colonies, despite their chaotic appearance, repose on a strong underlying social and temporal organization. - Les colonies de fourmis sont connues pour leur organisation sociale complexe et effi-cace, charactérisée par un manque absolu de structure hiérarchique. Cependant, puisqu'il est techniquement très difficile de suivre toutes les fourmis d'une colonie, il a été jusqu'à maintenant impossible d'étudier l'organisation sociale et temporelle des colonies de four-mis. Nous avons développé un système qui permet d'extraire en temps réel à partir d'images vidéo les positions et orientations de plusieurs centaines de fourmis marquées individuellement. Nous avons pu ainsi générer pour la première fois des données quanti-tatives et longitudinales relatives à des fourmis appartenant à une colonie. Ces données nous ont permis de reconstruire la trajectoire et l'activité de chaque fourmi ainsi que ses réseaux sociaux. Ceci nous a permis d'étudier de manière exhaustive et objective le com-portement de tous les individus d'une colonie. En analysant les données spatiales et les interactions sociales de toutes les fourmis de six colonies qui ont été filmées pendant 41 jours, nous montrons que les fourmis d'une même colonie se répartissent en trois groupes: nourrices, patrouilleuses et approvisionneuses. Les fourmis d'un même groupe interagis-sent fréquemment et occupent le même espace à l'intérieur du nid. L'espace propre à un groupe se recoupe très peu avec celui des autres. Chaque groupe est caractérisé par un comportement typique. Les nourrices s'affairent surtout autour du couvain. Les pa-trouilleuses font de fréquents déplacements vers le tas d'ordures, et les approvisionneuses sortent souvent du nid. Les nourrices sont en moyenne plus jeunes que les patrouilleuses qui, à leur tour, sont plus jeunes que les approvisionneuses. De plus, nous montrons que les ouvrières changent de tâche au cours de leur vie, passant de nourrice à patrouilleuse puis à approvisionneuse. En analysant l'activité de chaque fourmi, nous montrons que seulement un tiers des ouvrières d'une colonie présente des rythmes circadiens et que ces rythmes diminuent en moyenne de 42 minutes lorsqu'il y a obscurité constante, ce qui démontre ainsi la présence d'une horloge endogène. De plus, la plupart des approvi¬sionneuses ont une activité rythmique alors que les nourrices et patrouilleuses présentent une activité arythmique, ce qui suggère que la rythmicité est étroitement associée à la tâche. L'arythmie des nourrices et patrouilleuses repose probablement sur une plasticité de l'horloge endogène car des ouvrières de nombreuses espèces font preuve d'une ryth¬micité circadienne lorsqu'elles sont isolées de la colonie. Dans l'ensemble nos résultats révèlent qu'une colonie de fourmis se fonde sur une solide organisation sociale et tem¬porelle malgré son apparence chaotique.

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

How single-trial electrical neuroimaging contributes to multisensory research.

This study details a method to statistically determine, on a millisecond scale and for individual subjects, those brain areas whose activity differs between experimental conditions, using single-trial scalp-recorded EEG data. To do this, we non-invasively estimated local field potentials (LFPs) using the ELECTRA distributed inverse solution and applied non-parametric statistical tests at each brain voxel and for each time point. This yields a spatio-temporal activation pattern of differential brain responses. The method is illustrated here in the analysis of auditory-somatosensory (AS) multisensory interactions in four subjects. Differential multisensory responses were temporally and spatially consistent across individuals, with onset at approximately 50 ms and superposition within areas of the posterior superior temporal cortex that have traditionally been considered auditory in their function. The close agreement of these results with previous investigations of AS multisensory interactions suggests that the present approach constitutes a reliable method for studying multisensory processing with the temporal and spatial resolution required to elucidate several existing questions in this field. In particular, the present analyses permit a more direct comparison between human and animal studies of multisensory interactions and can be extended to examine correlation between electrophysiological phenomena and behavior.

Spatio-temporal transcript profiling of rice roots and shoots in response to phosphate starvation and recovery.

Using rice (Oryza sativa) as a model crop species, we performed an in-depth temporal transcriptome analysis, covering the early and late stages of Pi deprivation as well as Pi recovery in roots and shoots, using next-generation sequencing. Analyses of 126 paired-end RNA sequencing libraries, spanning nine time points, provided a comprehensive overview of the dynamic responses of rice to Pi stress. Differentially expressed genes were grouped into eight sets based on their responses to Pi starvation and recovery, enabling the complex signaling pathways involved in Pi homeostasis to be untangled. A reference annotation-based transcript assembly was also generated, identifying 438 unannotated loci that were differentially expressed under Pi starvation. Several genes also showed induction of unannotated splice isoforms under Pi starvation. Among these, PHOSPHATE2 (PHO2), a key regulator of Pi homeostasis, displayed a Pi starvation-induced isoform, which was associated with increased translation activity. In addition, microRNA (miRNA) expression profiles after long-term Pi starvation in roots and shoots were assessed, identifying 20 miRNA families that were not previously associated with Pi starvation, such as miR6250. In this article, we present a comprehensive spatio-temporal transcriptome analysis of plant responses to Pi stress, revealing a large number of potential key regulators of Pi homeostasis in plants.

Temporal changes in mosquito abundance (Culex pipiens), avian malaria prevalence and lineage composition

Background: Knowledge on the temporal dynamics of host/vector/parasite interactions is a pre-requisite to further address relevant questions in the fields of epidemiology and evolutionary ecology of infectious diseases. In studies of avian malaria, the natural history of Plasmodium parasites with their natural mosquito vectors, however, is mostly unknown. Methods: Using artificial water containers placed in the field, we monitored the relative abundance of parous females of Culex pipiens mosquitoes during two years (2010-2011), in a population in western Switzerland. Additionally, we used molecular tools to examine changes in avian malaria prevalence and Plasmodium lineage composition in female C. pipiens caught throughout one field season (April-August) in 2011. Results: C. pipiens relative abundance varied both between years and months, and was associated with temperature fluctuations. Total Plasmodium prevalence was high and increased from spring to summer months (13.1-20.3%). The Plasmodium community was composed of seven different lineages including P. relictum (SGS1, GRW11 and PADOM02 lineages), P. vaughani (lineage SYAT05) and other Plasmodium spp. (AFTRU5, PADOM1, COLL1). The most prevalent lineages, P. vaughani (lineage SYAT05) and P. relictum (lineage SGS1), were consistently found between years, although they had antagonistic dominance patterns during the season survey. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the time window of analysis is critical in evaluating changes in the community of avian malaria lineages infecting mosquitoes. The potential determinants of the observed changes as well as their implications for future prospects on avian malaria are discussed.

La politique régionale : entre compétitivité et respect de l'environnement

Aujourd'hui plus que jamais, le développement économique ne peut se faire au détriment de notre environnement naturel. Dès lors se pose la question de savoir comment parvenir à maintenir la compétitivité d'une économie, tout en tenant compte de l'impact qu'elle a sur révolution du cadre naturel. La présente recherche propose d'investiguer sur la question en se penchant sur les politiques publiques de promotion économique, et plus spécifiquement sur la politique régionale. Faut-il maintenir la confiance dans les courants néoclassiques, comme le laisse supposer la situation actuelle, renforcer la position d'une économie s'inscrivant au sein d'un cadre socio-environnemental ou encore repenser notre mode de fonctionnement économique quant à son développement ? Dans le cas présent, la politique régionale suisse est évaluée à la lumière de trois stratégies de développement économique. D'une part, il y a l'économie fondée sur la connaissance. Cette dernière est à la base de la philosophie actuelle en matière de politique régionale. Ensuite, il y a l'écologie industrielle, qui pour sa part fait la promesse d'un développement économique éco-compatible. Enfin, la troisième stratégie est celle de l'économie de fonctionnalité, qui propose de maximiser l'efficience d'une unité de matière première en limitant notamment la notion de propriété. Au travers d'une grille d'analyse construite sur le modèle des géographies de la grandeur, les trois stratégies sont confrontées aux objectifs de la nouvelle politique régionale suisse (NPR) ainsi qu'à ses modalités de mise en oeuvre. Il en ressort qu'en l'état actuel, la stratégie misant sur l'économie de la connaissance est la plus à même de relever le défi d'un développement économique durable. Toutefois, moyennant adaptations, les autres stratégies pourraient également se révéler être pertinentes. On constate notamment que les éléments clés sont ici l'innovation, ainsi que les dimensions spatiale et temporelle des stratégies. Nous recommandons dès lors d'adopter une approche territorialisée du développement économique, selon une logique de projet au sens de Boltanski & Chiapello. A notre sens, seules les propositions à même de fédérer les acteurs et disposant d'une vision intégrée du développement ont une chance de permettre un développement économique en harmonie avec notre cadre environnemental. - Today more than ever, economic development can't go ahead without consideration for our natural environment. This lays us with the question of how to maintain the competitiveness of an economy, and at the same time to manage the impact of it on the natural frame. This research aims to investigate this question through public policies fostering economy, more specifically through the regional policy. Must one trust the neo-classical way, as the actual situation let's think about it, reinforce the position of an economy within a socio- environmental frame or moreover reinvent our economical modus regarding development? In this case, an assessment of the Swiss regional policy is lead through three strategies of economic development. First, there is the knowledge economy. It is the core concept of the actual philosophy regarding regional policy. Second, there is the industrial ecology which aims to promote an eco-compatible economic development. Last, there is the functional economy, which proposes to maximize the efficiency of every used unit of natural resources by limiting in particular the notion of propriety. Through an analytic frame built on the model of geographies of greatness (géographies de la grandeuή, the three strategies are confronted to the objectives of the Swiss new regional policy (NRP) as well as its implementation. It turns out that actually, the strategy laying on the knowledge economy happens to be the best solution in order to promote a sustainable economic development. Nevertheless, with few adaptations, the other strategies could be pregnant as well. What we can see is that key- elements are here the innovation, as well as the spatial and temporal dimensions of these strategies. We recommend therefore to adopt a territorialised approach of economic development, with a project-based logic as meant by Boltanski & Chiapello. We are convinced that only propositions which are able to unit actors, and with an integrated point of view, have a chance to promote economic development in harmony with our environmental frame.

La articulación de ámbitos sociales a partir de la base temporal

Uno de los objetivos de la investigación ha consistido, en un primer nivel de análisis, en conseguir una tipología general de la forma de vinculación entre los ámbitos de TP (trabajo productivo), TR (trabajo reproductivo) y TL (disponibilidad de tiempo libre) a partir de datos e indicaciones cuantitativas. Después de diversos ensayos, los resultados y el procedimiento más simple y eficaz se han conseguido a partir de dimensiones indicativas del empleo del tiempo para cada uno de los ámbitos. Por tanto, una vez construidas las tipologías de cada uno de los ámbitos, se toma el tiempo, en este artículo, como referente o sustrato para la constitución de modos de vida cotidiana. Los tipos de modos de vida cotidiana serán a su vez la base de la intervención por entrevistas en la segunda y tercera parte de la investigación. El artículo muestra cómo el tiempo, en tanto que instrumento y soporte para la construcción de los modos de vida, pasa a ser un descritor y clasificador de grupos sin necesidad de recurrir directamente a las variables categoriales: sexo, categorías sociales, edad, etc. Este artículo es parte de una investigación cuyos resultados aparecen en este mismo número de PAPERS. El artículo tiene autonomía y entidad por sí mismo pero la lectura del resto de los artículos de este número facilitará su contextualización.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.