System GMM estimation with a small sample

Properties of GMM estimators for panel data, which have become very popular in the empirical economic growth literature, are not well known when the number of individuals is small. This paper analyses through Monte Carlo simulations the properties of various GMM and other estimators when the number of individuals is the one typically available in country growth studies. It is found that, provided that some persistency is present in the series, the system GMM estimator has a lower bias and higher efficiency than all the other estimators analysed, including the standard first-differences GMM estimator.

Promotion de l'activité physique chez les aînés: enjeux et stratégies spécifiques. [Promotion of exercise in older people: issues and strategies].

Regular physical activity is among the most effective interventions to prevent or delay functional decline and disability, even in older persons. Despite relatively strong scientific evidence supporting these benefits, the majority of older persons remain mostly sedentary. For these persons, concerns about injury or fear of negative consequences on their chronic diseases are among the most powerful barriers to participation in regular physical activity. Promotion of physical activity among older persons has therefore become one of the five main themes of the health promotion project "Via", a project that aims at promoting good practice in prevention and health promotion directed toward older adults in Switzerland. This paper summarizes the main recommendations issued from this national project supported by the Swiss Health Promotion Foundation.

Balanç de carbó atmosfèric: raó entre les emissions de metà de les vaques i el segrest forestal de CO2

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és determinar la capacitat de segrest de CO2 d’un bosc dels Pirineus, per tal de reduir el seu efecte hivernacle, en relació a l’impacte climàtic que tindrien les emissions de metà de les vaques. La metodologia s’ha basat en estimar la producció de fusta a partir d’inventaris forestals d’un bosc del Pallars Sobirà, i calcular-ne el segrest de CO2. Per altra banda, s’ha estimat bibliogràficament les emissions de metà d’una vaca. A partir de factors de conversió s’ha estimat la superfície de bosc que compensaria l’efecte hivernacle de les emissions de metà d’una vaca durant un any. El valor obtingut és de 0,727 hectàrees de bosc per vaca i any. Amb aquest valor s’ha estimat la superfície de bosc necessària per compensar les emissions de metà de la població de vaques de Catalunya. Aquests resultats són aproximats, donades les diferències en el creixement dels boscos de Catalunya. Aquest estudi dóna una dada comprensible que posa de manifest el concepte de balanç de carboni i els diferents elements que el formen.

Household-based malaria control in a highly endemic area of Africa (Tanzania): determinants of transmission and disease and indicators for monitoring - Kilombero Malaria Project

The Kilombero Malaria Project (KMP) attemps to define opperationally useful indicators of levels of transmission and disease and health system relevant monitoring indicators to evaluate the impact of disease control at the community or health facility level. The KMP is longitudinal community based study (N = 1024) in rural Southern Tanzania, investigating risk factors for malarial morbidity and developing household based malaria control strategies. Biweekly morbidity and bimonthly serological, parasitological and drug consumption surveys are carried out in all study households. Mosquito densities are measured biweekly in 50 sentinel houses by timed light traps. Determinants of transmission and indicators of exposure were not strongly aggregated within households. Subjective morbidity (recalled fever), objective morbidity (elevated body temperature and high parasitaemia) and chloroquine consumption were strongly aggregated within a few households. Nested analysis of anti-NANP40 antibody suggest that only approximately 30% of the titer variance can explained by household clustering and that the largest proportion of antibody titer variability must be explained by non-measured behavioral determinants relating to an individual's level of exposure within a household. Indicators for evaluation and monitoring and outcome measures are described within the context of health service management to describe control measure output in terms of community effectiveness.

Anàlisi i tècniques de processat del senyal per a la generació de mapes eòlics

L’emplaçament del projecte es situa a un parc eòlic marítim, on es vol observar el vent a través del radar VAD, Velocity Azimuth Display, per poder controlar la velocitat de rotació dels aerogeneradors, i poder substituir els actuals anemòmetres. No ens centrarem en el control d’aquest, sinó que l’objectiu principal d’aquest projecte és analitzar el funcionament i processat de dades del VAD. Es proposaran, simularan i estudiaran noves tècniques d’estimació espectral per obtenir una millora important amb les mesures de velocitat, direcció i divergència del vent, per tal de construir un radar més robust a pertorbacions. A més a més, també il·lustrarem mapes eòlics obtinguts a partir de tot el processat.

Online estimation of respiratory mechanics in non-invasive pressure support ventilation: a bench model study.

An online algorithm for determining respiratory mechanics in patients using non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in pressure support mode was developed and embedded in a ventilator system. Based on multiple linear regression (MLR) of respiratory data, the algorithm was tested on a patient bench model under conditions with and without leak and simulating a variety of mechanics. Bland-Altman analysis indicates reliable measures of compliance across the clinical range of interest (± 11-18% limits of agreement). Resistance measures showed large quantitative errors (30-50%), however, it was still possible to qualitatively distinguish between normal and obstructive resistances. This outcome provides clinically significant information for ventilator titration and patient management.

Analysing the innovation process in the EU Integrated Programme, ISAFRUIT

ISAFRUIT is an integrated European Union Project focussed on increasing fruit consumption as a means to improve human health, through evaluating the fruit chain and addressing bottlenecks therein.The innovations which are being developed throughout the ISAFRUIT Project have been analysed to determine both the success factors and the obstacles in reaching the commercialisation stage. Only 9.58% of the deliverables planned within the Project were focussed on developing technological innovations.There is evidence, however, of successes in the development of new innovations arising from the ISAFRUIT Project, with several other potential innovations in the pipeline. Of the technologies identified, 67% are still at the “invention stage”; that is, the stage prior to bridging the so-called “valley of death”, the stage between an invention and an innovation. Those which are considered to have moved over the “valley of death” either had industry partners included in the Project, or had consulted with industry to ensure that the technology was relevant, or met a recognised industry need. Many of the technologies which made less progress did not have the same interactions with industry. A number of other issues were identified which prevented further progress towards innovation. The need for scientists to publish scientific papers, both for their career pathways and to increase their chances of future funding, was identified as one issue, although the filing of patents is now becoming more accepted and recognised. The patenting system is considered complex by many scientists and is not well-understood. Finally, agreements between partners on the sharing of intellectual property rights can cause a delay in the innovation process.

Gestió dels recursos hídrics del Monestir Budista Sakya Tashi Ling

Amb la finalitat de millorar l’autosuficiència hídrica del monestir budista del Garraf Sakya Tashi Ling, es fa una avaluació de l’estat dels recursos hídrics d’aquest sistema, així com els seus usos i punts de consum. L’avaluació s’ha realitzat mitjançant la integració i ús de paràmetres mediambientals, hídrics i arquitectònics. Amb l’estimació d’entrades i consums d’aigua, juntament amb els càlculs realitzats, s’ha diagnosticat l’estat actual del sistema. Mitjançant la realització d’un inventari dels diferents equipaments i dispositius instal·lats en els punts de consum d’aigua, s’han detectat mancances en la eficiència hídrica com l’escassa implementació de dispositius d’estalvi hídric o la inexistent captació de les aigües pluvials. El diagnòstic de les mancances ha orientat les propostes de millora aplicables al sistema. Aquestes incideixen principalment en la millora de l’estalvi d’aigua amb la instal·lació de dispositius estalviadors i en la captació d’aigües pluvials mitjançant una xarxa de recollida, emmagatzematge i distribució.

Auditoria ambiental de l'edifici de l'Àrea de Territori, Medi Ambient, Paisatge i Espai Urbà de l'Ajuntament de Sitges

Aquest projecte realitza una auditoria ambiental de l’edifici de l’Àrea de Territori, Medi Ambient, Paisatge i Espai Urbà de l’Ajuntament de Sitges, com a primer pas per a la implantació d’un sistema de gestió ambiental (SGA), en acord amb el Reglament (CE) nº 761/2001, i la posterior obtenció d’un certificat de gestió i auditories ambientals (EMAS). L’auditoria s’inicia amb la identificació dels aspectes ambientals de l’edifici, mitjançant la recopilació de dades sobre consums energètics i hídrics, la estimació de la generació de residus i enquestes de mobilitat als treballadors. Aquestes dades són utilitzades per determinar els aspectes ambientals significatius i posteriorment, exposar una sèrie de propostes de millora per tal de corregir-los o minimitzar-los, com ara sistemes d’estalvi d’aigua, d’enllumenat, de producció d’electricitat i l’educació ambiental dels treballadors. Per a la implantació d’un SGA en la situació actual de l’edifici, es necessària, entre altres coses, la implantació d’un sistema de registre que arxivi els consums d’aigua, energia i generació de residus, per tal de dur un control de les despeses de cadascun dels vectors. A més, caldrà implementar un Programa de bones pràctiques ambientals en l’oficina per tal de reduir el consum elèctric, d’aigua i generació de residus, i la seva classificació per part dels treballadors.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

On estimation and identifiability issues of sex-linked inheritance with a case study of pigmentation in Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba)

Genetic evaluation using animal models or pedigree-based models generally assume only autosomal inheritance. Bayesian animal models provide a flexible framework for genetic evaluation, and we show how the model readily can accommodate situations where the trait of interest is influenced by both autosomal and sex-linked inheritance. This allows for simultaneous calculation of autosomal and sex-chromosomal additive genetic effects. Inferences were performed using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA), a nonsampling-based Bayesian inference methodology. We provide a detailed description of how to calculate the inverse of the X- or Z-chromosomal additive genetic relationship matrix, needed for inference. The case study of eumelanic spot diameter in a Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba) population shows that this trait is substantially influenced by variation in genes on the Z-chromosome (sigma(2)(z) = 0.2719 and sigma(2)(a) = 0.4405). Further, a simulation study for this study system shows that the animal model accounting for both autosomal and sex-chromosome-linked inheritance is identifiable, that is, the two effects can be distinguished, and provides accurate inference on the variance components.

The value of selected in vitro and in silico methods to predict acute oral toxicity in a regulatory context: results from the European Project ACuteTox.

ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6 months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD50>2000 mg/kg b.w.).

Identification and analysis of functional elements in 1% of the human genome by the ENCODE pilot project.

We report the generation and analysis of functional data from multiple, diverse experiments performed on a targeted 1% of the human genome as part of the pilot phase of the ENCODE Project. These data have been further integrated and augmented by a number of evolutionary and computational analyses. Together, our results advance the collective knowledge about human genome function in several major areas. First, our studies provide convincing evidence that the genome is pervasively transcribed, such that the majority of its bases can be found in primary transcripts, including non-protein-coding transcripts, and those that extensively overlap one another. Second, systematic examination of transcriptional regulation has yielded new understanding about transcription start sites, including their relationship to specific regulatory sequences and features of chromatin accessibility and histone modification. Third, a more sophisticated view of chromatin structure has emerged, including its inter-relationship with DNA replication and transcriptional regulation. Finally, integration of these new sources of information, in particular with respect to mammalian evolution based on inter- and intra-species sequence comparisons, has yielded new mechanistic and evolutionary insights concerning the functional landscape of the human genome. Together, these studies are defining a path for pursuit of a more comprehensive characterization of human genome function.