Nanostructures for sensors, electronics, energy and environment

Nanoscale science is growing evermore important on a global scale and is widely seen as playing an integral part in the growth of future world economies. The daunting energy crisis we are facing could be solved not only by new and improved ways of getting energy directly from the sun, but also by saving power thanks to advancements in electronics and sensors. New, cheap dye-sensitized and polymer solar cells hold the promise of environmentally friendly and simple production methods, along with mechanical flexibility and low weight, matching the conditions for a widespread deployment of this technology. Cheap sensors based on nanomaterials can make a fundamental contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, allowing the creation of large sensor networks to monitor countries and cities, improving our quality of life. Nanowires and nano-platelets of metal oxides are at the forefront of the research to improve sensitivity and reduce the power consumption in gas sensors. Nanoelectronics is the next step in the electronic roadmap, with many devices currently in production already containing components smaller than 100 nm. Molecules and conducting polymers are at the forefront of this research with the goal of reducing component size through the use of cheap and environmentally friendly production methods. This, and the coming steps that will eventually bring the individual circuit element close to the ultimate limit of the atomic level, are expected to deliver better devices with reduced power consumption.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Project 2.7 Leveraging R&D Investment for the Australian built environment : Phase 2 Case Study Reports Part 1 - Overview of Findings

This report provides an overview of findings of qualitative research comprising three case studies undertaken as a part of the retrospective analysis component of Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre (SBEnrc) Project 2.7 Leveraging R&D investment for the Australian Built Environment. These case studies (see Parts 2, 3 and 4 of this suite of reports) were undertaken to illustrate the nature of past R&D investments in Australia. This was done to complement: (i) the audit and analysis of past R&D investment undertaken by Thomas Barlow (2011); and (ii) the Construction 2030 roadmap being developed by Swinburne University of Technology and Professor Göran Roos from VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. These documents will be the basis for the final phase of the present project - developing policy guidelines for future R&D investment in the Australian built environment. Refer also Parts 1, 2 and 3 for detail findings.

A review of models and model usage scenarios for an airport complex system

Airports represent the epitome of complex systems with multiple stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions and complex interactions between many actors. The large number of existing models that capture different aspects of the airport are a testament to this. However, these existing models do not consider in a systematic sense modelling requirements nor how stakeholders such as airport operators or airlines would make use of these models. This can detrimentally impact on the verification and validation of models and makes the development of extensible and reusable modelling tools difficult. This paper develops from the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) framework a methodology to help structure the review and development of modelling capabilities and usage scenarios. The method is applied to the review of existing airport terminal passenger models. It is found that existing models can be broadly categorised according to four usage scenarios: capacity planning, operational planning and design, security policy and planning, and airport performance review. The models, the performance metrics that they evaluate and their usage scenarios are discussed. It is found that capacity and operational planning models predominantly focus on performance metrics such as waiting time, service time and congestion whereas performance review models attempt to link those to passenger satisfaction outcomes. Security policy models on the other hand focus on probabilistic risk assessment. However, there is an emerging focus on the need to be able to capture trade-offs between multiple criteria such as security and processing time. Based on the CONOPS framework and literature findings, guidance is provided for the development of future airport terminal models.

Tests and Models of Non-compositional Concepts

The question of under what conditions conceptual representation is compositional remains debatable within cognitive science. This paper proposes a well developed mathematical apparatus for a probabilistic representation of concepts, drawing upon methods developed in quantum theory to propose a formal test that can determine whether a specific conceptual combination is compositional, or not. This test examines a joint probability distribution modeling the combination, asking whether or not it is factorizable. Empirical studies indicate that some combinations should be considered non-compositionally.

Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.

PLDA based speaker recognition on short utterances

This paper investigates the effects of limited speech data in the context of speaker verification using a probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) approach. Being able to reduce the length of required speech data is important to the development of automatic speaker verification system in real world applications. When sufficient speech is available, previous research has shown that heavy-tailed PLDA (HTPLDA) modeling of speakers in the i-vector space provides state-of-the-art performance, however, the robustness of HTPLDA to the limited speech resources in development, enrolment and verification is an important issue that has not yet been investigated. In this paper, we analyze the speaker verification performance with regards to the duration of utterances used for both speaker evaluation (enrolment and verification) and score normalization and PLDA modeling during development. Two different approaches to total-variability representation are analyzed within the PLDA approach to show improved performance in short-utterance mismatched evaluation conditions and conditions for which insufficient speech resources are available for adequate system development. The results presented within this paper using the NIST 2008 Speaker Recognition Evaluation dataset suggest that the HTPLDA system can continue to achieve better performance than Gaussian PLDA (GPLDA) as evaluation utterance lengths are decreased. We also highlight the importance of matching durations for score normalization and PLDA modeling to the expected evaluation conditions. Finally, we found that a pooled total-variability approach to PLDA modeling can achieve better performance than the traditional concatenated total-variability approach for short utterances in mismatched evaluation conditions and conditions for which insufficient speech resources are available for adequate system development.

PLDA based speaker verification with weighted LDA techniques

This paper investigates the use of the dimensionality-reduction techniques weighted linear discriminant analysis (WLDA), and weighted median fisher discriminant analysis (WMFD), before probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) modeling for the purpose of improving speaker verification performance in the presence of high inter-session variability. Recently it was shown that WLDA techniques can provide improvement over traditional linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for channel compensation in i-vector based speaker verification systems. We show in this paper that the speaker discriminative information that is available in the distance between pair of speakers clustered in the development i-vector space can also be exploited in heavy-tailed PLDA modeling by using the weighted discriminant approaches prior to PLDA modeling. Based upon the results presented within this paper using the NIST 2008 Speaker Recognition Evaluation dataset, we believe that WLDA and WMFD projections before PLDA modeling can provide an improved approach when compared to uncompensated PLDA modeling for i-vector based speaker verification systems.

A review of system safety failure probability objectives for Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are one of a number of emerging aviation sectors. Such new aviation concepts present a significant challenge to National Aviation Authorities (NAAs) charged with ensuring the safety of their operation within the existing airspace system. There is significant heritage in the existing body of aviation safety regulations for Conventionally Piloted Aircraft (CPA). It can be argued that the promulgation of these regulations has delivered a level of safety tolerable to society, thus justifying the “default position” of applying these same standards, regulations and regulatory structures to emerging aviation concepts such as UAS. An example of this is the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS, which is based on the 1309 regulation for CPA. However, the absence of a pilot on-board an unmanned aircraft creates a fundamentally different risk paradigm to that of CPA. An appreciation of these differences is essential to the justification of the “default position” and in turn, to ensure the development of effective safety standards and regulations for UAS. This paper explores the suitability of the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS. A detailed review of the proposed regulation is provided and a number of key assumptions are identified and discussed. A high-level model characterising the expected number of third party fatalities on the ground is then used to determine the impact of these assumptions. The results clearly show that the “one size fits all” approach to the definition of 1309 regulations for UAS, which mandates equipment design and installation requirements independent of where the UAS is to be operated, will not lead to an effective management of the risks.

Visual route recognition with a handful of bits

In this paper we use a sequence-based visual localization algorithm to reveal surprising answers to the question, how much visual information is actually needed to conduct effective navigation? The algorithm actively searches for the best local image matches within a sliding window of short route segments or 'sub-routes', and matches sub-routes by searching for coherent sequences of local image matches. In contract to many existing techniques, the technique requires no pre-training or camera parameter calibration. We compare the algorithm's performance to the state-of-the-art FAB-MAP 2.0 algorithm on a 70 km benchmark dataset. Performance matches or exceeds the state of the art feature-based localization technique using images as small as 4 pixels, fields of view reduced by a factor of 250, and pixel bit depths reduced to 2 bits. We present further results demonstrating the system localizing in an office environment with near 100% precision using two 7 bit Lego light sensors, as well as using 16 and 32 pixel images from a motorbike race and a mountain rally car stage. By demonstrating how little image information is required to achieve localization along a route, we hope to stimulate future 'low fidelity' approaches to visual navigation that complement probabilistic feature-based techniques.

Tracheobronchial and alveolar dose of submicrometer particles for different population age groups in Italy

Exposure to ultrafine particles (diameter less than 100 nm) is an important topic in epidemiological and toxicological studies. This study used the average particle number size distribution data obtained from our measurement survey in major micro-environments, together with the people activity pattern data obtained from the Italian Human Activity Pattern Survey to estimate the tracheobronchial and alveolar dose of submicrometer particles for different population age groups in Italy. We developed a numerical methodology based on Monte Carlo method, in order to estimate the best combination from a probabilistic point of view. More than 106 different cases were analyzed according to a purpose built sub-routine and our results showed that the daily alveolar particle number and surface area deposited for all of the age groups considered was equal to 1.5 x 1011 particles and 2.5 x 1015 m2, respectively, varying slightly for males and females living in Northern or Southern Italy. In terms of tracheobronchial deposition, the corresponding values for daily particle number and surface area for all age groups was equal to 6.5 x 1010 particles and 9.9 x 1014 m2, respectively. Overall, the highest contributions were found to come from indoor cooking (female), working time (male) and transportation (i.e. traffic derived particles) (children).

Is the unigram relevance model term independent? Classifying term dependencies in query expansion

This paper develops a framework for classifying term dependencies in query expansion with respect to the role terms play in structural linguistic associations. The framework is used to classify and compare the query expansion terms produced by the unigram and positional relevance models. As the unigram relevance model does not explicitly model term dependencies in its estimation process it is often thought to ignore dependencies that exist between words in natural language. The framework presented in this paper is underpinned by two types of linguistic association, namely syntagmatic and paradigmatic associations. It was found that syntagmatic associations were a more prevalent form of linguistic association used in query expansion. Paradoxically, it was the unigram model that exhibited this association more than the positional relevance model. This surprising finding has two potential implications for information retrieval models: (1) if linguistic associations underpin query expansion, then a probabilistic term dependence assumption based on position is inadequate for capturing them; (2) the unigram relevance model captures more term dependency information than its underlying theoretical model suggests, so its normative position as a baseline that ignores term dependencies should perhaps be reviewed.

The development of ground impact models for the analysis of the risks associated with Unmanned Aircraft Operations over inhabited areas

With the emergence of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) there is a growing need for safety standards and regulatory frameworks to manage the risks associated with their operations. The primary driver for airworthiness regulations (i.e., those governing the design, manufacture, maintenance and operation of UAS) are the risks presented to people in the regions overflown by the aircraft. Models characterising the nature of these risks are needed to inform the development of airworthiness regulations. The output from these models should include measures of the collective, individual and societal risk. A brief review of these measures is provided. Based on the review, it was determined that the model of the operation of an UAS over inhabited areas must be capable of describing the distribution of possible impact locations, given a failure at a particular point in the flight plan. Existing models either do not take the impact distribution into consideration, or propose complex and computationally expensive methods for its calculation. A computationally efficient approach for estimating the boundary (and in turn area) of the impact distribution for fixed wing unmanned aircraft is proposed. A series of geometric templates that approximate the impact distributions are derived using an empirical analysis of the results obtained from a 6-Degree of Freedom (6DoF) simulation. The impact distributions can be aggregated to provide impact footprint distributions for a range of generic phases of flight and missions. The maximum impact footprint areas obtained from the geometric template are shown to have a relative error of typically less than 1% compared to the areas calculated using the computationally more expensive 6DoF simulation. Computation times for the geometric models are on the order of one second or less, using a standard desktop computer. Future work includes characterising the distribution of impact locations within the footprint boundaries.

A review of current statistical methodologies for in storage sampling and surveillance in the grains industry

Effective, statistically robust sampling and surveillance strategies form an integral component of large agricultural industries such as the grains industry. Intensive in-storage sampling is essential for pest detection, Integrated Pest Management (IPM), to determine grain quality and to satisfy importing nation’s biosecurity concerns, while surveillance over broad geographic regions ensures that biosecurity risks can be excluded, monitored, eradicated or contained within an area. In the grains industry, a number of qualitative and quantitative methodologies for surveillance and in-storage sampling have been considered. Primarily, research has focussed on developing statistical methodologies for in storage sampling strategies concentrating on detection of pest insects within a grain bulk, however, the need for effective and statistically defensible surveillance strategies has also been recognised. Interestingly, although surveillance and in storage sampling have typically been considered independently, many techniques and concepts are common between the two fields of research. This review aims to consider the development of statistically based in storage sampling and surveillance strategies and to identify methods that may be useful for both surveillance and in storage sampling. We discuss the utility of new quantitative and qualitative approaches, such as Bayesian statistics, fault trees and more traditional probabilistic methods and show how these methods may be used in both surveillance and in storage sampling systems.

Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.