Integrating pest population models with biophysical crop models to better represent the farming system

Farming systems frameworks such as the Agricultural Production Systems simulator (APSIM) represent fluxes through the soil, plant and atmosphere of the system well, but do not generally consider the biotic constraints that function within the system. We designed a method that allowed population models built in DYMEX to interact with APSIM. The simulator engine component of the DYMEX population-modelling platform was wrapped within an APSIM module allowing it to get and set variable values in other APSIM models running in the simulation. A rust model developed in DYMEX is used to demonstrate how the developing rust population reduces the crop's green leaf area. The success of the linking process is seen in the interaction of the two models and how changes in rust population on the crop's leaves feedback to the APSIM crop modifying the growth and development of the crop's leaf area. This linking of population models to simulate pest populations and biophysical models to simulate crop growth and development increases the complexity of the simulation, but provides a tool to investigate biotic constraints within farming systems and further moves APSIM towards being an agro-ecological framework.

Large-scale expansion of no-take closures within the Great Barrier Reef has not enhanced fishery production

A rare opportunity to test hypotheses about potential fishery benefits of large-scale closures was initiated in July 2004 when an additional 28.4% of the 348 000 km2 Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region of Queensland, Australia was closed to all fishing. Advice to the Australian and Queensland governments that supported this initiative predicted these additional closures would generate minimal (10%) initial reductions in both catch and landed value within the GBR area, with recovery of catches becoming apparent after three years. To test these predictions, commercial fisheries data from the GBR area and from the two adjacent (non-GBR) areas of Queensland were compared for the periods immediately before and after the closures were implemented. The observed means for total annual catch and value within the GBR declined from pre-closure (2000–2003) levels of 12 780 Mg and Australian $160 million, to initial post-closure (2005–2008) levels of 8143 Mg and $102 million; decreases of 35% and 36% respectively. Because the reference areas in the non-GBR had minimal changes in catch and value, the beyond-BACI (before, after, control, impact) analyses estimated initial net reductions within the GBR of 35% for both total catch and value. There was no evidence of recovery in total catch levels or any comparative improvement in catch rates within the GBR nine years after implementation. These results are not consistent with the advice to governments that the closures would have minimal initial impacts and rapidly generate benefits to fisheries in the GBR through increased juvenile recruitment and adult spillovers. Instead, the absence of evidence of recovery in catches to date currently supports an alternative hypothesis that where there is already effective fisheries management, the closing of areas to all fishing will generate reductions in overall catches similar to the percentage of the fished area that is closed.

Plantation crops

Plantation horticulture is an important part of the economic landscape of many tropical countries. Plantations were developed in association with colonial expansion and the original models were based on the production of monocrops which had a ready export market, using cheap or slave labour. Plantations in the twenty first Century are less likely environments for exploitation of human and environmental capital. They are however, linked to crop production on a large scale for produce to be sold, at profit, for export to distant markets rather than local sale. A range of crops can be broadly categorized into plantation crops. Plantations continue to be effective models for efficient agricultural production and will evolve in response to the continued demand for food, fruit, fibre, oil crops and timber from a growing population

The study of genetic diversity and population structure of the Korean fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, using newly developed microsatellite markers

The fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, is the family of Penaeidae and one of the most economically important marine culture species in Korea. However, its genetic characteristics have never been studied. In this study, a total of 240 wild F. chinensis individuals were collected from four locations as follows: Narodo (NRD, n = 60), Beopseongpo (BSP, n = 60), Chaesukpo (CSP, n = 60), and Cheonsuman (CSM, n = 60). Genetic variability and the relationships among four wild F. chinensis populations were analyzed using 13 newly developed microsatellite loci. Relatively high levels of genetic variability (mean allelic richness = 16.87; mean heterozygosity = 0.845) were found among localities. Among the 52 population loci, 13 showed significant deviation from the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Neighbor-joining, principal coordinate, and molecular variance analyses revealed the presence of three subpopulations (NRD, CSM, BSP and CSP), which was consistent with clustering based on genetic distance. The mean observed heterozygosity values of the NRD, CSM, BSP, and CSP populations were 0.724, 0.821, 0.814, and 0.785 over all loci, respectively. These genetic variability and differentiation results of the four wild populations can be applied for future genetic improvement using selective breeding and to design suitable management guidelines for Korean F. chinensis culture.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Ultrasonic velocities and thermal expansion coefficients of amorphous Se80Te20 and Se90Te10 alloys near glass transitions

Precise measurements of the ultrasonic velocities and thermal expansivities of amorphous Se80Te20 and Se90Te10 alloys are reported near the glass transition. The samples are produced by liquid quenching. The longitudinal and transverse velocities are measured at 10 MHz frequency using the McSkimin pulse superposition technique. The thermal expansivities,agr, are measured using a three-terminal capacitance bridge. Theagr-values show a sharp maximum near the glass transition temperature,T g. The ultrasonic velocities also show a large temperature derivative, dV/dT nearT g. The data are discussed in terms of existing theories of the glass transition. The continuous change inagr shows that the glass transition is not a first-order transition, as suggested by some theories. The samples are found to be deformed by small loads nearT g. The ultrasonic velocities and dV/dT have contributions arising from this deformation.

Sirex woodwasp range expansion in Australia: performance and parasitism on two commercial pine species

Sirex woodwasp was detected in Queensland in 2009 and rapidly established in softwood plantations (Pinus radiata and P. taeda) in southern border regions. Biocontrol inoculations of Deladenus siricidicola began soon after, and adults were monitored to assess the success of the programme. Wasp size, sex ratios, emergence phenology and nematode parasitism rates were recorded, along with the assessment of wild-caught females. Patterns varied within and among seasons, but overall, P. taeda appeared to be a less suitable host than P. radiata, producing smaller adults, lower fat body content and fewer females. Sirex emerging from P. taeda also showed lower levels of nematode parasitism, possibly due to interactions with the more abundant blue-stain fungus in this host. Sirex adults generally emerged between November and March, with distinct peaks in January and March, separated by a marked drop in emergence in early February. Temperature provided the best correlate of seasonal emergence, with fortnights with higher mean minimum temperatures having higher numbers of Sirex emerging. This has implications for the anticipated northward spread of Sirex into sub-tropical coastal plantation regions. Following four seasons of inundative release of nematodes in Queensland, parasitism rates remain low and have resulted in only partial sterilization of infected females.

The diet-related health of the Australian population and potential opportunities for the food retail sector

This report describes the diet-related health of the Australian population and identifies potential opportunities for the food retail sector.

Early post-operative mortality after major lower limb amputation: A systematic review of population and regional based studies

OBJECTIVE: Lower limb amputation is often associated with a high risk of early post-operative mortality. Mortality rates are also increasingly being put forward as a possible benchmark for surgical performance. The primary aim of this systematic review is to investigate early post-operative mortality following a major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies, and reported factors that might influence these mortality outcomes. METHODS: Embase, PubMed, Cinahl and Psycinfo were searched for publications in any language on 30 day or in hospital mortality after major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies. PRISMA guidelines were followed. A self developed checklist was used to assess quality and susceptibility to bias. Summary data were extracted for the percentage of the population who died; pooling of quantitative results was not possible because of methodological differences between studies. RESULTS: Of the 9,082 publications identified, results were included from 21. The percentage of the population undergoing amputation who died within 30 days ranged from 7% to 22%, the in hospital equivalent was 4-20%. Transfemoral amputation and older age were found to have a higher proportion of early post-operative mortality, compared with transtibial and younger age, respectively. Other patient factors or surgical treatment choices related to increased early post-operative mortality varied between studies. CONCLUSIONS: Early post-operative mortality rates vary from 4% to 22%. There are very limited data presented for patient related factors (age, comorbidities) that influence mortality. Even less is known about factors related to surgical treatment choices, being limited to amputation level. More information is needed to allow comparison across studies or for any benchmarking of acceptable mortality rates. Agreement is needed on key factors to be reported.

The Population Consequences of Sex and Conflict

Natural selection generally operates at the level of the individual, or more specifically at the level of the gene. As a result, individual selection does not always favour traits which benefit the population or species as a whole. The spread of an individual gene may even act to the detriment of the organism in which it finds. Thus selection at the level of the individual can affect processes at the level of the organism, group or even at the level of the species. As most behaviours ultimately affect births, deaths and the distribution of individuals, it seems inevitable that behavioural decisions will have an impact on population dynamics and population densities. Behavioural decisions can often involve costs through allocation of energy into behavioural strategies, such as the investment into armaments involved in fighting over resources or increased mortality due to injury or increased predation risk. Similarly, behaviour may act o to benefit the population, in terms of higher survival and increased fecundity. Examples include increased investment through parental care, choosing a mate based on the nuptial gifts they may supply and choosing territories in the face of competition. Investigating the impact of behaviour on population ecology may seem like a trivial task, but it is likely to have important consequences at different levels. For example, antagonistic behaviour may occasionally become so extreme that it increases the risk of extinction, and such extinction risk may have important implications for conservation. As a corollary, any such behaviour may also act as a macroevolutionary force, weeding out populations with traits which, whilst beneficial to the individuals in the short term, ultimately result in population extinction. In this thesis, I examine how behaviours, specifically conflict and competition over a resource and aspects of behaviour involved in sexual selection, can affect population densities, and what the implications are for the evolution and ecology of the populations in question. It is found that both behaviours related to individual conflict and mating strategies can have an effect at the level of the population, but that various factors, such as a feedback between selection and population densities or macroevolution caused by species extinctions, may act to limit the intensity of conflicts that we observe in nature.

Effects of environmental variation on ecological and evolutionary dynamics

Environmental variation is a fact of life for all the species on earth: for any population of any particular species, the local environmental conditions are liable to vary in both time and space. In today's world, anthropogenic activity is causing habitat loss and fragmentation for many species, which may profoundly alter the characteristics of environmental variation in remaining habitat. Previous research indicates that, as habitat is lost, the spatial configuration of remaining habitat will increasingly affect the dynamics by which populations are governed. Through the use of mathematical models, this thesis asks how environmental variation interacts with species properties to influence population dynamics, local adaptation, and dispersal evolution. More specifically, we couple continuous-time continuous-space stochastic population dynamic models to landscape models. We manipulate environmental variation via parameters such as mean patch size, patch density, and patch longevity. Among other findings, we show that a mixture of high and low quality habitat is commonly better for a population than uniformly mediocre habitat. This conclusion is justified by purely ecological arguments, yet the positive effects of landscape heterogeneity may be enhanced further by local adaptation, and by the evolution of short-ranged dispersal. The predicted evolutionary responses to environmental variation are complex, however, since they involve numerous conflicting factors. We discuss why the species that have high levels of local adaptation within their ranges may not be the same species that benefit from local adaptation during range expansion. We show how habitat loss can lead to either increased or decreased selection for dispersal depending on the type of habitat and the manner in which it is lost. To study the models, we develop a recent analytical method, Perturbation expansion, to enable the incorporation of environmental variation. Within this context, we use two methods to address evolutionary dynamics: Adaptive dynamics, which assumes mutations occur infrequently so that the ecological and evolutionary timescales can be separated, and via Genotype distributions, which assume mutations are more frequent. The two approaches generally lead to similar predictions yet, exceptionally, we show how the evolutionary response of dispersal behaviour to habitat turnover may qualitatively depend on the mutation rate.

Phylogeography and Population Genetics of the Moor frog (Rana arvalis Nilsson) in Northern Europe

The ongoing climate change along with increasing levels of pollutants, diseases, habitat loss and fragmentation constitute global threats to the persistence of many populations, species and ecosystems. However, for the long-term persistence of local populations, one of the biggest threats is the intrinsic loss of genetic variation. In order to adapt to changes in the environment, organisms must have a sufficient supply of heritable variation in traits important for their fitness. With a loss of genetic variation, the risk of extinction will increase. For conservational practices, one should therefore understand the processes that shape the genetic population structure and also the broader (historical) phylogenetic patterning of the species in focus. In this thesis, microsatellite markers were applied to study genetic diversity and population differentiation of the protected moor frog (Rana arvalis) in Fennoscandia from both historical (evolutionary) and applied (conservation) perspectives. The results demonstrate that R. arvalis populations are highly structured over rather short geographic distances. Moreover, the results suggest that R. arvalis recolonized Fennoscandia from two directions after the last ice age. This has had implications for the genetic structuring and population differentiation, especially in the northernmost parts where the two lineages have met. Compared to more southern populations, the genetic variation decreases and the interpopulation differentiation increases dramatically towards north. This could be an outcome of serial population bottlenecking along the recolonization route. Also, current isolation and small population sizes increase the effect of drift, thus reinforcing the observed pattern. The same pattern can also be seen in island populations. However, though R. arvalis on the island of Gotland has lost most of its neutral genetic variability, our results indicate that the levels of additive genetic variation have remained high. This conforms to the conjecture that though neutral markers are widely used in conservation purposes, they may be quite uninformative about the levels of genetic variation in ecologically important traits. Finally, the evolutionary impact of the typical amphibian mating behaviour on genetic diversity was investigated. Given the short time available for larval development, it is important that mating takes place as early as possible. The genetic data and earlier capture-recapture data suggest that R. arvalis gather at mating grounds they are familiar with. However, by forming leks in random to relatedness, and having multiple paternities in single clutches, the risk of inbreeding may be minimized in this otherwise highly philopatric species.