An Analysis of the Telecommunications Business in China by Linear Regression

In this paper, we study the influence of the National Telecom Business Volume by the data in 2008 that have been published in China Statistical Yearbook of Statistics. We illustrate the procedure of modeling “National Telecom Business Volume” on the following eight variables, GDP, Consumption Levels, Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods Total Renovation Investment, the Local Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Phone End Users, and the Local Telephone End Users. The testing of heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity for model evaluation is included. We also consider AIC and BIC criterion to select independent variables, and conclude the result of the factors which are the optimal regression model for the amount of telecommunications business and the relation between independent variables and dependent variable. Based on the final results, we propose several recommendations about how to improve telecommunication services and promote the economic development.

On Aspects of Mathematical Reasoning : Affect and Gender

This thesis explores two aspects of mathematical reasoning: affect and gender. I started by looking at the reasoning of upper secondary students when solving tasks. This work revealed that when not guided by an interviewer, algorithmic reasoning, based on memorising algorithms which may or may not be appropriate for the task, was predominant in the students reasoning. Given this lack of mathematical grounding in students reasoning I looked in a second study at what grounds they had for different strategy choices and conclusions. This qualitative study suggested that beliefs about safety, expectation and motivation were important in the central decisions made during task solving.  But are reasoning and beliefs gendered? The third study explored upper secondary school teachers conceptions about gender and students mathematical reasoning. In this study I found that upper secondary school teachers attributed gender symbols including insecurity, use of standard methods and imitative reasoning to girls and symbols such as multiple strategies especially on the calculator, guessing and chance-taking were assigned to boys. In the fourth and final study I found that students, both male and female, shared their teachers view of rather traditional feminities and masculinities. Remarkably however, this result did not repeat itself when students were asked to reflect on their own behaviour: there were some discrepancies between the traits the students ascribed as gender different and the traits they ascribed to themselves. Taken together the thesis suggests that, contrary to conceptions, girls and boys share many of the same core beliefs about mathematics, but much work is still needed if we should create learning environments that provide better opportunities for students to develop beliefs that guide them towards well-grounded mathematical reasoning. 

Teachers' conceptions about students' mathematical reasoning : Gendered or not?

This study looks at how upper secondary school teachers gender stereotype aspects of students' mathematical reasoning. Girls were attributed gender symbols including insecurity, use of standard methods and imitative reasoning. Boys were assigned the symbols such as multiple strategies especially on the calculator, guessing and chance-taking. 

A Note on Proxy Variables and Instrument Variable Regression

This is a note about proxy variables and instruments for identification of structural parameters in regression models. We have experienced that in the econometric textbooks these two issues are treated separately, although in practice these two concepts are very often combined. Usually, proxy variables are inserted in instrument variable regressions with the motivation they are exogenous. Implicitly meaning they are exogenous in a reduced form model and not in a structural model. Actually if these variables are exogenous they should be redundant in the structural model, e.g. IQ as a proxy for ability. Valid proxies reduce unexplained variation and increases the efficiency of the estimator of the structural parameter of interest. This is especially important in situations when the instrument is weak. With a simple example we demonstrate what is required of a proxy and an instrument when they are combined. It turns out that when a researcher has a valid instrument the requirements on the proxy variable is weaker than if no such instrument exists

On the EA-style integrated processing of self-contained mathematical texts

A sound and complete first-order goal-oriented sequent-type calculus is developed with ``large-block'' inference rules. In particular, the calculus contains formal analogues of such natural proof-search techniques as handling definitions and applying auxiliary propositions.

Evidence Algorithm and Processing Formalized Mathematical Texts

The goal of a research programme Evidence Algorithm is a development of an open system of automated proving that is able to accumulate mathematical knowledge and to prove theorems in a context of a self-contained mathematical text. By now, the first version of such a system called a System for Automated Deduction, SAD, is implemented in software. The system SAD possesses the following main features: mathematical texts are formalized using a specific formal language that is close to a natural language of mathematical publications; a proof search is based on special sequent-type calculi formalizing natural reasoning style, such as application of definitions and auxiliary propositions. These calculi also admit a separation of equality handling from deduction that gives an opportunity to integrate logical reasoning with symbolic calculation.

Electoral rules, political competition and fiscal spending: regression discontinuity evidence from brazilian municipalities

We exploit a discontinuity in Brazilian municipal election rules to investigate whether political competition has a causal impact on policy choices. In municipalities with less than 200,000 voters mayors are elected with a plurality of the vote. In municipalities with more than 200,000 voters a run-off election takes place among the top two candidates if neither achieves a majority of the votes. At a first stage, we show that the possibility of runoff increases political competition. At a second stage, we use the discontinuity as a source of exogenous variation to infer causality from political competition to fiscal policy. Our second stage results suggest that political competition induces more investment and less current spending, particularly personnel expenses. Furthermore, the impact of political competition is larger when incumbents can run for reelection, suggesting incentives matter insofar as incumbents can themselves remain in office.

Probabilidade de financiamento por cartões de crédito híbridos

Esta pesquisa tem o objetivo de identificar as variáveis e sua influência na propensão à aquisição de crédito pessoal, propondo um modelo estatístico de propensão ao financiamento por cartões de crédito híbridos para maximização de contratação de crédito e otimização dos esforços de marketing. O estudo descritivo pode gerar insights para a compreensão da expansão do crédito ao consumo, sobretudo num contexto de escassez de opções de financiamento e limitação no canal de distribuição. Foram usados dados de uma base de clientes de uma instituição financeira com variáveis sócio demográficas e transacionai, e o modelo matemático foi seguido da validação de sua capacidade preditiva.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

Improved combinations of parametric and nonparametric Regression estimators

This paper provides a systematic and unified treatment of the developments in the area of kernel estimation in econometrics and statistics. Both the estimation and hypothesis testing issues are discussed for the nonparametric and semiparametric regression models. A discussion on the choice of windowwidth is also presented.