Statistical analysis of extreme forest fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper extreme wildland fires are analysed using a point process model for extremes. The model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach is adapted with maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Deforestation and the spatio-temporal distribution of savannah and forest members of the Simulium damnosum complex in southern Ghana and south-western Togo

Spatio-temporal data on cytotaxonomic identifications of larvae of different members of the Simulium damnosum complex collected from rivers in southern Ghana and south-western Togo from 1975 until 1997 were analysed. When the data were combined, the percentages of savannah blackflies (S. damnosum sensu stricto and S. sirbanum) in the samples were shown to have been progressively increasing since 1975. The increases were statistically significant (P < 0·001), but the rates of increase were not linear. Further analyses were conducted according to the collection seasons and locations of the samples, to account for possible biases such as savannah flies occurring further south in the dry season or a preponderance of later samples from northern rivers having more savannah flies. These analyses showed that the increasing trend was statistically significant (P< 0·0001) only during the periods April to June and October to December. The presence of adult savannah flies carrying infective larvae (L3) indistinguishable from those of Onchocerca volvulus in the study zone was confirmed by examinations of captured flies. The percentages of savannah flies amongst the human-biting populations and the percentages with L3s in the head were higher during dry seasons than wet seasons and the savannah species were found furthest south (5 °25′N) in the dry season. Comparisons of satellite images taken in 1973 and 1990 over a study area in south-western Ghana encompassing stretches of the Tano and Bia rivers demonstrated that there have been substantial increases in urban and savannah areas, at the expense of forest. This was so not only for the whole images but also for subsamples of the images taken at 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 km distant from sites alongside the River Tano. At every distance from the river, the percentages of pixels classified as urban or savannah have increased in 1990 compared with 1973, while those classified as degraded or dense forest have decreased. The possibility that the proportionate increases in savannah forms of the vectors of onchocerciasis, and hence in the likelihood of the transmission of savannah strains of the disease in formerly forested areas, were related to the decreases in forest cover is discussed.

Towards the sustainable use of Europe’s forests: a centre for European forest science! – Some missing catalytic elements?

The Symposium, “Towards the sustainable use of Europe’s forests”, with sub-title “Forest ecosystem and landscape research: scientific challenges and opportunities” lists three fundamental substantive areas of research that are involved: Forest management and practices, Ecosystem processes and functional ecology, and Environmental economics and sociology. This paper argues that there are essential catalytic elements missing! Without these elements there is great danger that the aimed-for world leadership in the forest sciences will not materialize. What are the missing elements? All the sciences, and in particular biology, environmental sciences, sociology, economics, and forestry have evolved so that they include good scientific methodology. Good methodology is imperative in both the design and analysis of research studies, the management of research data, and in the interpretation of research finding. The methodological disciplines of Statistics, Modelling and Informatics (“SMI”) are crucial elements in a proposed Centre of European Forest Science, and the full involvement of professionals in these methodological disciplines is needed if the research of the Centre is to be world-class. Distributed Virtual Institute (DVI) for Statistics, Modelling and Informatics in Forestry and the Environment (SMIFE) is a consortium with the aim of providing world-class methodological support and collaboration to European research in the areas of Forestry and the Environment. It is suggested that DVI: SMIFE should be a formal partner in the proposed Centre for European Forest Science.

A new parameterization of Johnson's SB distribution with application to fitting forest tree diameter data

The SB distributional model of Johnson's 1949 paper was introduced by a transformation to normality, that is, z ~ N(0, 1), consisting of a linear scaling to the range (0, 1), a logit transformation, and an affine transformation, z = γ + δu. The model, in its original parameterization, has often been used in forest diameter distribution modelling. In this paper, we define the SB distribution in terms of the inverse transformation from normality, including an initial linear scaling transformation, u = γ′ + δ′z (δ′ = 1/δ and γ′ = �γ/δ). The SB model in terms of the new parameterization is derived, and maximum likelihood estimation schema are presented for both model parameterizations. The statistical properties of the two alternative parameterizations are compared empirically on 20 data sets of diameter distributions of Changbai larch (Larix olgensis Henry). The new parameterization is shown to be statistically better than Johnson's original parameterization for the data sets considered here.

Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Nematode diversity in different microhabitats in a mangrove region

Mangroves are highly productive environments that play important ecological and socioeconomic roles; however, they have been impacted to different degrees in most countries worldwide. The knowledge of which organisms inhabit this environment and their ecological interactions is the first step towards its conservation. The natural variability of environmental factors in mangroves provides numerous niches available to different species. Meiofauna have patchy patterns of distribution that are related to the availability of resources. Hence, meiofauna are expected to present a high diversity of different taxa occupying the different microhabitats offered by mangroves. This work aims to test the hypothesis that the assemblage structure of Nematoda varies significantly among mangrove microhabitats and to contribute knowledge on the meiofauna diversity in mangrove environments. This work was carried out in a mangrove region at Pernambuco state, Northeastern Brazil. Qualitative samples were collected in nine microhabitats which show different characteristics mainly in terms of presence of vegetation or another organism and sediment grain size. Univariate and multivariate analysis were applied to Nematoda genera abundance data. Our results demonstrate the existence of significant differences among microhabitats regarding nematode assemblage structure corroborating the hypothesis. Different Nematoda assemblages are present in at least seven microhabitats. These assemblages are composed of nematode genera with different trophic and morphological features, demonstrating a strong relationship between morphological diversity and ecological plasticity. Furthermore, this study also demonstrates the importance of the conservation of this ecosystem and its attributes.

Macrofauna along the Sudanese Red Sea coast: potential effect of mangrove clearance on community and trophic structure

Mangroves along the Sudanese Red Sea coast are under constant anthropogenic pressure. To better understand the influence of mangrove clearance on the intertidal benthic community, we investigated the composition, biodiversity and standing stock of the macrofauna communities at high-, mid- and low-water levels in three contrasting habitats: a bare sand flat, a cleared mangrove and an intact mangrove. In addition, a community-wide metric approach based on taxon-specific carbon and nitrogen isotope values was used to compare the trophic structure between the three habitats. The habitats differed significantly in terms of macrofaunal standing stock, community composition and trophic structure. The high- and mid-water levels of the intact mangroves showed a distinct macrofaunal community characterized by elevated densities and biomass, largely governed by higher decapod and gastropod abundances. Diversity was similar for cleared and intact mangroves, but much lower for the bare sand flat. Community-wide metrics indicated highest trophic diversity and community niche breadth in the intact mangroves. Differences between the cleared and intact mangroves can be partly attributed to differences in sediment characteristics resulting from mangrove clearance. These results suggest a significant impact of mangrove clearance on the macrofaunal community and trophic structure. This study calls for further investigations and management actions to protect and restore these habitats, and ensure the survival of this ecologically valuable coastal ecosystem.

Replacing rubber plantations by rain forest in Southwest China - Who would gain and how much?

The cultivation of rubber trees in Xishuangbanna Prefecture in China’s Yunnan Province has triggered an unprecedented economic development but it is also associated with severe environmental problems. Rubber plantations are encroaching the indigenous rainforests at a large scale and a high speed in Xishuangbanna. Many rare plant and animal species are endangered by this development, the natural water management is disturbed and even the microclimate in this region has changed over the past years. The present study aims at an assessment of the environmental benefits accruing from a reforestation project partly reversing the deforestation that has taken place over the past years. To this end a Contingent Valuation survey has been conducted in Xishuangbanna to elicit local residents’ willingness to pay for this reforestation program that converts existing rubber plantations back into forest. It is shown that local people's awareness of the environmental problems caused by increasing rubber plantation is quite high and that in spite of the economic advantages of rubber plantation there is a positive willingness among the local population to contribute financially to a reduction of existing rubber plantations for the sake of a partial restoration of the local rainforest. These results could be used for the practical implementation of a PES (Payments for Eco-System Services) system for reforestation in Xishuangbanna.

The Juniper formations in the Djurdjura (Algerie): an interpretation of the importance of their ecology, dynamics and syntoxonomy in the Kabylian cedar forest as a whole

The authors propose a new phyiosociologic interpretation of Juniperas comniunis subsp. hemisphaerica and Juniperus sabina shrublands in the Djurdjura. They make up two new associations: the Cynosuro balansae-Juniperetun, hemisphaericae and the Daphno oleoidis-Juniperetum sabinae, belonging to the new alliance Lonicero kabylicae-Juniperion hemisphaericae included in the order Querco Cedretalia atlanticae. The ecologic and biogeograpbic value of these communities is analized in a Westem-mediterrancan context as well as their dynamic importance. On this mountain, they correspond to ihe preforested level of cedar forests. For this reason, an attempt to inlerprel Kabylian cedar forests as a whole was made they belong to the new association Senecio perralderlani-Cedretum atlanticae. A diachronic evaluation of changes in native plant communities over a 30 year period is made, in particular as related to the creation of several local structures to protect natural resources.