Bright Subcycle Extreme Ultraviolet Bursts from a Single Dense Relativistic Electron Sheet

Double-foil targets separated by a low density plasma and irradiated by a petawatt-class laser are shown to be a copious source of coherent broadband radiation. Simulations show that a dense sheet of relativistic electrons is formed during the interaction of the laser with the tenuous plasma between the two foils. The coherent motion of the electron sheet as it transits the second foil results in strong broadband emission in the extreme ultraviolet, consistent with our experimental observations.

A tree augmented classifier based on Extreme Imprecise Dirichlet Model

We present TANC, a TAN classifier (tree-augmented naive) based on imprecise probabilities. TANC models prior near-ignorance via the Extreme Imprecise Dirichlet Model (EDM). A first contribution of this paper is the experimental comparison between EDM and the global Imprecise Dirichlet Model using the naive credal classifier (NCC), with the aim of showing that EDM is a sensible approximation of the global IDM. TANC is able to deal with missing data in a conservative manner by considering all possible completions (without assuming them to be missing-at-random), but avoiding an exponential increase of the computational time. By experiments on real data sets, we show that TANC is more reliable than the Bayesian TAN and that it provides better performance compared to previous TANs based on imprecise probabilities. Yet, TANC is sometimes outperformed by NCC because the learned TAN structures are too complex; this calls for novel algorithms for learning the TAN structures, better suited for an imprecise probability classifier.

A Tree Augmented Classifier Based on Extreme Imprecise Dirichlet Model

In this paper we present TANC, i.e., a tree-augmented naive credal classifier based on imprecise probabilities; it models prior near-ignorance via the Extreme Imprecise Dirichlet Model (EDM) (Cano et al., 2007) and deals conservatively with missing data in the training set, without assuming them to be missing-at-random. The EDM is an approximation of the global Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM), which considerably simplifies the computation of upper and lower probabilities; yet, having been only recently introduced, the quality of the provided approximation needs still to be verified. As first contribution, we extensively compare the output of the naive credal classifier (one of the few cases in which the global IDM can be exactly implemented) when learned with the EDM and the global IDM; the output of the classifier appears to be identical in the vast majority of cases, thus supporting the adoption of the EDM in real classification problems. Then, by experiments we show that TANC is more reliable than the precise TAN (learned with uniform prior), and also that it provides better performance compared to a previous (Zaffalon, 2003) TAN model based on imprecise probabilities. TANC treats missing data by considering all possible completions of the training set, but avoiding an exponential increase of the computational times; eventually, we present some preliminary results with missing data.

Amplitude modulation of quantum-ion-acoustic wavepackets in electron-positron-ion plasmas: Modulational instability, envelope modes, extreme waves

A semirelativistic fluid model is employed to describe the nonlinear amplitude modulation of low-frequency (ionic scale) electrostatic waves in an unmagnetized electron-positron-ion plasma. Electrons and positrons are assumed to be degenerated and inertialess, whereas ions are warm and classical. A multiscale perturbation method is used to derive a nonlinear Schrödinger equation for the envelope amplitude, based on which the occurrence of modulational instability is investigated in detail. Various types of localized ion acoustic excitations are shown to exist, in the form of either bright type envelope solitons (envelope pulses) or dark-type envelope solitons (voids, holes). The plasma configurational parameters (namely, the relativistic degeneracy parameter, the positron concentration, and the ionic temperature) are shown to affect the conditions for modulational instability significantly, in fact modifying the associated threshold as well as the instability growth rate. In particular, the relativistic degeneracy parameter leads to an enhancement of the modulational instability mechanism. Furthermore, the effect of different relevant plasma parameters on the characteristics (amplitude, width) of these envelope solitary structures is also presented in detail. Finally, the occurrence of extreme amplitude excitation (rogue waves) is also discussed briefly. Our results aim at elucidating the formation and dynamics of nonlinear electrostatic excitations in superdense astrophysical regimes.

Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease:a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) onboard the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study anti control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.

Extreme learning machines for virtual metrology and etch rate prediction

Virtual metrology (VM) aims to predict metrology values using sensor data from production equipment and physical metrology values of preceding samples. VM is a promising technology for the semiconductor manufacturing industry as it can reduce the frequency of in-line metrology operations and provide supportive information for other operations such as fault detection, predictive maintenance and run-to-run control. Methods with minimal user intervention are required to perform VM in a real-time industrial process. In this paper we propose extreme learning machines (ELM) as a competitive alternative to popular methods like lasso and ridge regression for developing VM models. In addition, we propose a new way to choose the hidden layer weights of ELMs that leads to an improvement in its prediction performance.

Synchronous Islanding Control in the Presence of Hydro-electric Generation

This paper introduces a novel load sharing algorithm to enable island synchronization. The system model used for development is based on an actual system for which historical measurement and fault data is available and is used to refine and test the algorithms performance and validity. The electrical system modelled is selected due to its high-level of hydroelectric generation and its history of islanding events. The process of developing the load sharing algorithm includes a number of steps. Firstly, the development of a simulation model to represent the case study accurately - this is validated by way of matching system behavior based on data from historical island events. Next, a generic island simulation is used to develop the load sharing algorithm. The algorithm is then tested against the validated simulation model representing the case study area selected. Finally, a laboratory setup is described which is used as validation method for the novel load sharing algorithm.

Symposium - Organisational transformation in policing: Leadership and change in extreme contexts

Nearly 4000 people died in Northern Ireland’s long running conflict, 314 of them police officers (Brewer and Magee 1991, Brewer 1996, Hennessey 1999, Guelke and Milton-Edwards 2000). The republican and loyalist ceasefires of 1994 were the first significant signal that NI society was moving beyond the ‘troubles’ and towards a normalised political environment. The Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement of 1998 cemented that movement (Hennessey 1999). Policing was a key and seemingly unresolvable element of the conflict, seen as unrepresentative and partisan. Its reform or ‘recasting’ in a new dispensation was an integral part of the conflict transformation endeavour(Ellison 2010). As one of the most controversial elements of the conflicted past, it had remained outside the Agreement and was subject to a specific commission of interest (1999), generally known as the Patten Commission. The Commission’s far reaching proposals included a change of name, badge and uniform, the introduction of 50/50 recruitment (50% Roman Catholic and 50% other), a new focus on human rights, a new district command and headquarter structure, a review of ‘Special Branch’ and covert techniques, a concern for ‘policing with the community’ and a significant voluntary severance process to make room for new recruits, unconnected with the past history of the organisation(Murphy 2013).

This paper reflects upon the first data collection phase of a long term processual study of organisational change within the Royal Ulster Constabulary / Police Service of Northern Ireland. This phase (1996-2002) covers early organisational change initiation (including the pre-change period) and implementation including the instigation of symbolic changes (name, badge, and crest) and structural changes (new HQ structure and District Command structure). It utilises internal documentation including messages from the organisations leaders, interviews with forty key informants (identified through a combination of snow-balling from referrals by initial contacts, and key interviews with significant individuals), as well as external documentation and commentary on public perceptions of the change. Using a processual lens (Langley, Smallman et al. 2013) it seeks to understand this initial change phase and its relative success in a highly politicised environment.

By engaging key individuals internally and externally, setting up a dedicated change team, adopting a non normative, non urgent, calming approach to dissent, communicating in orthodox and unorthodox ways with members, acknowledging the huge emotional strain of letting go of the organisation’s name and all it embodied, and re-emphasising the role of officers as ‘police first’, rather than ‘RUC first’, the organisations leadership remained in control of a volatile and unhappy organisational body and succeeded in moving it on through this initial phase, even while much of the political establishment lambasted them externally. Three years into this change process the organisation had a new name, a new crest, new structures, procedures and was deeply engaged in embedding the joint principles of human rights and community policing within its re-woven fabric. While significant problems remained, the new Police Service of Northern Ireland had successfully begun a long journey to full community acceptance in a post conflict context.

This case illustrates the significant challenges of leading change under political pressure, with external oversight and no space for failure(Hannah, Uhl-Bien et al. 2009). It empirically reflects the reality of change implementation as messy, disruptive and unpredictable and highlights the significance of political skill and contextual understanding to success in the early stages(Buchanan and Boddy 1992). The implications of this for change theory and the practice of change implementation are explored (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007) and some conclusions drawn about what such an extreme case tells us about change generally and change implementation under pressure.

Extreme Loads on an Oscillating Wave Surge Converter

A major difficulty in the design of full scale Wave Energy Converters is the need to design for two conflicting design criteria. In one instance devices must be designed to couple heavily to the incident wave force resulting in the efficient extraction of energy in small sea states, however devices must also be capable of withstanding the harsh conditions encountered during extreme seas. This paper presents an initial investigation of the extreme wave loading of a generic, surface-piercing, pitching flap-type device deployed in near shore wave conditions. Slamming of the flap is selected as the extreme load event for further investigation and the experimental methodologies employed are described. Preliminary results showing both local and global loading under such events are presented for the case of a flap tested in a 3-dimensional environment. Results are presented which show flap slamming effects on the pressures experienced on the front face of the flap.

The common vaginal commensal bacterium Ureaplasma parvum is associated with chorioamnionitis in extreme preterm labour

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of vaginal commensal and low grade pathogenic bacteria including Ureaplasma parvum, Ureaplasma urealyticum, Mycoplasma hominis, Mycoplasma genitalium, Group B Streptococcus (GBS), and Gardnerella vaginalis, in women who delivered preterm at less than 37 weeks gestation in the presence or absence of inflammation of the chorioamnionitic membranes.

METHODS: A case control study involving women who delivered before 37 weeks gestation with and without inflammation of chorioamnionitic membranes. A total of 57 placental samples were histologically examined for polymorphonuclear leukocyte infiltration of placental tissue for evidence of chorioamnionitis, and by type-specific nucleic acid amplification for evidence of infection with one or more of the target bacteria. Demographic data was collected for each mother.

RESULTS: Amongst the 57 placental samples, 42.1% had chorioamnionitis and 24.6% delivered in the second trimester of pregnancy; U. parvum, U. urealyticum, G. vaginalis and GBS were all detected in the study with respective prevalence of 19.3%, 3.5%, 17.5% and 15.8%; M.genitalium and M. hominis were not detected. U. parvum was significantly associated with chorioamnionitis (p value = 0.02; OR 5.0; (95% CI 1.2-21.5) and was more common in women who delivered in the second (35.7%) compared to the third trimester of pregnancy (13.9%). None of the other bacteria were associated with chorioamnionitis or earlier delivery and all G.vaginalis positive women delivered in the third trimester of pregnancy (p value 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS: The detection of U. parvum in placental tissue was significantly associated with acute chorioamnionitis in women presenting in extreme preterm labour.

Materials in extreme environments for energy, accelerators and space applications at ELI-NP.

As a leading facility in laser-driven nuclear physics, ELI-NP will develop innovative research in the fields of materials behavior in extreme environments and radiobiology, with applications in the development of accelerator components, new materials for next generation fusion and fission reactors, shielding solutions for equipment and human crew in long term space missions and new biomedical technologies. The specific properties of the laser-driven radiation produced with two lasers of 1 PW at a pulse repetition rate of 1 Hz each are an ultra-short time scale, a relatively broadband spectrum and the possibility to provide simultaneously several types of radiation. Complex, cosmic-like radiation will be produced in a ground-based laboratory allowing comprehensive investigations of their effects on materials and biological systems. The expected maximum energy and intensity of the radiation beams are 19 MeV with 10^9 photon/pulse for photon radiation, 2 GeV with 108 electron/pulse for electron beams, 60 MeV with 10^12 proton/pulse for proton and ion beams and 60 MeV with 107 neutron/pulse for a neutron source. Research efforts will be directed also towards measurements for radioprotection of the prompt and activated dose, as a function of laser and target characteristics and to the development and testing of various dosimetric methods and equipment.

The Evolution of Extreme Cooperation via Shared Dysphoric Experiences

Willingness to lay down one’s life for a group of non-kin, well documented in the
historical and ethnographic records, represents an evolutionary puzzle. Here we
present a novel explanation for the willingness to fight and die for a group, combining evolutionary theorizing with empirical evidence from real-world human groups. Building on research in social psychology, we develop a mathematical model showing how conditioning cooperation on previous shared experience can allow extreme (i.e., life-threatening) pro-social behavior to evolve. The model generates a series of predictions that we then test empirically in a range of special sample populations (including military veterans, college fraternity/sorority members, football fans, martial arts practitioners, and twins). Our results show that sharing painful experiences produces “identity fusion” – a visceral sense of oneness – more so even than bonds of kinship, in turn motivating extreme pro-group behavior, including willingness to fight and die for the group. These findings have theoretical and practical relevance. Theoretically, our results speak to the origins of human cooperation, as we offer an explanation of extremely costly actions left unexplained by existing models.
Practically, our account of how shared dysphoric experiences produce identity fusion, which produces a willingness to fight and die for a non-kin group, helps us better understand such pressing social issues as suicide terrorism, holy wars, sectarian violence, gang-related violence, and other forms of intergroup conflict.

Exploring the links between urban stucture and air quality

A poluição atmosférica constitui actualmente um grave problema ambiental cujos efeitos se fazem sentir a diversas escalas, desde os efeitos imediatos e de longo termo na saúde humana e nos materiais, até fenómenos regionais, como a acificação, e fenómenos globais que durante este século poderão alterar as condições de vida no globo. Apesar da redução das emissões de poluentes atmosféricos, conseguida através do uso de combustíveis mais limpos e tecnologias mais eficientes, as áreas urbanas continuam a evidenciar sinais de degradação ambiental. Para ser bem sucedida a cidade deve enfrentar as três dimensões da sustentabilidade: social, económica e ambiental. O modo de utilização do solo numa zona urbana é uma característica fundamental da cidade, com influência directa no seu desempenho ambiental e na qualidade de vida que proporciona à população. O presente trabalho explora a ligação entre a estrutura urbana e a qualidade do ar, um dos muitos aspectos do desenvolvimento urbano sustentável. A perspectiva histórica sobre o desenvolvimento urbano, a poluição atmosférica e a sua interligação é abordada, bem como o trabalho de investigação que tem vindo a ser conduzido na área. A aplicação de um sistema de modelação atmosférico a um caso de estudo idealizado demonstra a importância da estrutura espacial da cidade na sustentabilidade urbana, mostrando que cidades compactas com usos do solo misturados promovem uma melhor qualidade do ar quando comparadas com cidades dispersas, com baixa densidade populacional. De modo a explorar a relação entre a estrutura urbana e a qualidade do ar numa zona urbana real, a região urbana do Porto é identificada como um caso de estudo adequado, e o processo de crescimento urbano nas últimas décadas é analisado, assim como os níveis de qualidade do ar da região. De modo a definir a configuração do sistema de modelação mais adequada para a região de estudo, são efectuados diversos testes de sensibilidade com o modelo meteorológico. Relativamente ao modelo de qualidade do ar, é descrito e implementado um conjunto de acções de modo a melhorar o desempenho do modelo para a simulação das concentrações de poluentes na atmosfera urbana, no contexto de alterações do uso do solo. Finalmente, são desenvolvidos e testados, através da aplicação do sistema de modelação, dois cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento urbano para a área de estudo. Estes cenários alternativos implicam diferentes emissões de poluentes e diferentes distribuições espaciais dessas emissões, e como consequência, diferentes níveis de qualidade do ar. O estudo permite concluir que alterações nos padrões de uso do solo em áreas urbanas conduzem a alterações na meteorologia, emissões e qualidade do ar. As áreas urbanas dispersas, quando comparadas com estruturas urbanas compactas são responsáveis por temperaturas mais elevadas, emissões de poluentes para a atmosfera mais elevadas e maiores concentrações de poluentes.