Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

Optimization of a dynamic district heating power plant

The purpose of this Thesis is to find the most optimal heat recovery solution for Wärtsilä’s dynamic district heating power plant considering Germany energy markets as in Germany government pays subsidies for CHP plants in order to increase its share of domestic power production to 25 % by 2020. Different heat recovery connections have been simulated dozens to be able to determine the most efficient heat recovery connections. The purpose is also to study feasibility of different heat recovery connections in the dynamic district heating power plant in the Germany markets thus taking into consideration the day ahead electricity prices, district heating network temperatures and CHP subsidies accordingly. The auxiliary cooling, dynamical operation and cost efficiency of the power plant is also investigated.

Russian and Eastern European Dynamic Conditional Correlations in light of the Russian crisis of 2014-2015

This thesis studies the impact of the latest Russian crisis on global markets, and especially Central and Eastern Europe. The results are compared to other shocks and crises over the last twenty years to see how significant they have been. The cointegration process of Central and Eastern European financial markets is also reviewed and updated. Using three separate conditional correlation GARCH models, the latest crisis is not found to have initiated similar surges in conditional correlations to previous crises over the last two decades. Market cointegration for Central and Eastern Europe is found to have stalled somewhat after initial correlation increases post EU accession.

Conceptualizing and counteracting the bullying dynamic: Classroom and school contexts matter

Guided by the social-ecological conceptualization of bullying, this thesis examines the implications of classroom and school contexts—that is, students’ shared microsystems—for peer-to-peer bullying and antibullying practices. Included are four original publications, three of which are empirical studies utilizing data from a large Finnish sample of students in the upper grade levels of elementary school. Both self- and peer reports of bullying and victimization are utilized, and the hierarchical nature of the data collected from students nested within school ecologies is accounted for by multilevel modeling techniques. The first objective of the thesis is to simultaneously examine risk factors for victimization at individual, classroom, and school levels (Study I). The second objective is to uncover the individual- and classroom-level working mechanisms of the KiVa antibullying program which has been shown to be effective in reducing bullying problems in Finnish schools (Study II). Thirdly, an overview of the extant literature on classroom- and school-level contributions to bullying and victimization is provided (Study III). Finally, attention is paid to the assessment of victimization and, more specifically, to how the classroom context influences the concordance between self- and peer reports of victimization (Study IV). Findings demonstrate the multiple ways in which contextual factors, and importantly students’ perceptions thereof, contribute to the bullying dynamic and efforts to counteract it. Whereas certain popular beliefs regarding the implications of classroom and school contexts do not receive support, the role of peer contextual factors and the significance of students’ perceptions of teachers’ attitudes toward bullying are highlighted. Directions for future research and school-based antibullying practices are suggested.

Gross proteinuria is a strong risk predictor for cardiovascular mortality in Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients

Increased proteinuria is recognized as a risk predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in diabetic patients; however, no study has evaluated these relationships in Brazilian patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of gross proteinuria for all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and for cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort study of 471 type 2 diabetic individuals followed for up to 7 years. Several clinical, laboratory and electrocardiographic variables were obtained at baseline. The relative risks for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and for cardiovascular and cardiac events associated with the presence of overt proteinuria (>0.5 g/24 h) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and by multivariate Cox regression model. During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 121 patients (25.7%) died, 44 from cardiovascular and 30 from cardiac causes, and 106 fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Gross proteinuria was an independent risk predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and of cardiovascular morbidity with adjusted relative risks ranging from 1.96 to 4.38 for the different endpoints. This increased risk remained significant after exclusion of patients with prior cardiovascular disease at baseline from the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, gross proteinuria was a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and also of cardiovascular morbidity in a Brazilian cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. Intervention studies are necessary to determine whether the reduction of proteinuria can decrease morbidity and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.

Systematic head and neck physical examination as a predictor of obstructive sleep apnea in class III obese patients

Our aim was to determine if anatomical abnormalities of the upper airway (UA) and facial skeleton of class III severely obese patients are related to the presence and severity of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). Forty-five patients (69% females, mean age 46.5 ± 10.8 years) with a body mass index (BMI) over 40 kg/m² underwent UA and facial skeletal examinations as well as polysomnography. Mean BMI was 49 ± 7 kg/m² and mean neck circumference was 43.4 ± 5.1 cm. Polysomnographic findings showed that 22% had a normal apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and 78% had an AHI over 5. The presence of OSAS was associated with younger age (P = 0.02), larger neck circumference (P = 0.004), presence of a voluminous lateral wall (P = 0.0002), posteriorized soft palate (P = 0.0053), thick soft palate (P = 0.0014), long uvula (P = 0.04), thick uvula (P = 0.0052), and inferior turbinate hypertrophy (P = 0.04). A larger neck circumference (P = 0.02), presence of a voluminous lateral wall (P = 0.04), posteriorized soft palate (P = 0.03), and thick soft palate (P = 0.04) were all associated with OSAS severity. The prevalence of OSAS in this group was high. A larger neck circumference and soft tissue abnormalities of the UA were markers for both the presence and severity of OSAS. Conversely, no abnormalities in the facial skeleton were associated with OSAS in patients with morbid obesity.

Glomerular damage as a predictor of renal allograft loss

Interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IF/TA) are the most common cause of renal graft failure. Chronic transplant glomerulopathy (CTG) is present in approximately 1.5-3.0% of all renal grafts. We retrospectively studied the contribution of CTG and recurrent post-transplant glomerulopathies (RGN) to graft loss. We analyzed 123 patients with chronic renal allograft dysfunction and divided them into three groups: CTG (N = 37), RGN (N = 21), and IF/TA (N = 65). Demographic data were analyzed and the variables related to graft function identified by statistical methods. CTG had a significantly lower allograft survival than IF/TA. In a multivariate analysis, protective factors for allograft outcomes were: use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.12, P = 0.001), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF; HR = 0.17, P = 0.026), hepatitis C virus (HR = 7.29, P = 0.003), delayed graft function (HR = 5.32, P = 0.016), serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dL at the 1st year post-transplant (HR = 0.20, P = 0.011), and proteinuria ≥0.5 g/24 h at the 1st year post-transplant (HR = 0.14, P = 0.004). The presence of glomerular damage is a risk factor for allograft loss (HR = 4.55, P = 0.015). The presence of some degree of chronic glomerular damage in addition to the diagnosis of IF/TA was the most important risk factor associated with allograft loss since it could indicate chronic active antibody-mediated rejection. ACEI and MMF were associated with better outcomes, indicating that they might improve graft survival.

Plasma von Willebrand factor as a predictor of survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension associated with congenital heart disease

Biomarkers have been identified for pulmonary arterial hypertension, but are less well defined for specific etiologies such as congenital heart disease-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension (CHDPAH). We measured plasma levels of eight microvascular dysfunction markers in CHDPAH, and tested for associations with survival. A cohort of 46 inoperable CHDPAH patients (age 15.0 to 60.2 years, median 33.5 years, female:male 29:17) was prospectively followed for 0.7 to 4.0 years (median 3.6 years). Plasma levels of von Willebrand factor antigen (VWF:Ag), tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) and its inhibitor (PAI-1), P-selectin, reactive C-protein, tumor necrosis factor alpha, and interleukin-6 and -10 were measured at baseline, and at 30, 90, and 180 days in all subjects. Levels of six of the eight proteins were significantly increased in patients versus controls (13 to 106% increase, P < 0.003). Interleukin-10 level was 2.06 times normal (P = 0.0003; Th2 cytokine response). Increased levels of four proteins (t-PA, PAI-1, P-selectin, and interleukin-6) correlated with disease severity indices (P < 0.05). Seven patients died during follow-up. An average VWF:Ag (mean of four determinations) above the level corresponding to the 95th percentile of controls (139 U/dL) was independently associated with a high risk of death (hazard ratio = 6.56, 95%CI = 1.46 to 29.4, P = 0.014). Thus, in CHDPAH, microvascular dysfunction appears to involve Th2 inflammatory response. Of the biomarkers studied, plasma vWF:Ag was independently associated with survival.

Percent body fat is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk factors than body mass index

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the predictive values of percent body fat (PBF) and body mass index (BMI) for cardiovascular risk factors, especially when PBF and BMI are conflicting. BMI was calculated by the standard formula and PBF was determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis. A total of 3859 ambulatory adult Han Chinese subjects (2173 males and 1686 females, age range: 18-85 years) without a history of cardiovascular diseases were recruited from February to September 2009. Based on BMI and PBF, they were classified into group 1 (normal BMI and PBF, N = 1961), group 2 (normal BMI, but abnormal PBF, N = 381), group 3 (abnormal BMI, but normal PBF, N = 681), and group 4 (abnormal BMI and PBF, N = 836). When age, gender, lifestyle, and family history of obesity were adjusted, PBF, but not BMI, was correlated with blood glucose and lipid levels. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for cardiovascular risk factors in groups 2 and 4 were 1.88 (1.45-2.45) and 2.06 (1.26-3.35) times those in group 1, respectively, but remained unchanged in group 3 (OR = 1.32, 95%CI = 0.92-1.89). Logistic regression models also demonstrated that PBF, rather than BMI, was independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors. In conclusion, PBF, and not BMI, is independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors, indicating that PBF is a better predictor.

Hemodynamic mechanisms of the attenuated blood pressure response to mental stress after a single bout of maximal dynamic exercise in healthy subjects

To determine the hemodynamic mechanisms responsible for the attenuated blood pressure response to mental stress after exercise, 26 healthy sedentary individuals (age 29 ± 8 years) underwent the Stroop color-word test before and 60 min after a bout of maximal dynamic exercise on a treadmill. A subgroup (N = 11) underwent a time-control experiment without exercise. Blood pressure was continuously and noninvasively recorded by infrared finger photoplethysmography. Stroke volume was derived from pressure signals, and cardiac output and peripheral vascular resistance were calculated. Perceived mental stress scores were comparable between mental stress tests both in the exercise (P = 0.96) and control (P = 0.24) experiments. After exercise, the blood pressure response to mental stress was attenuated (pre: 10 ± 13 vs post: 6 ± 7 mmHg; P < 0.01) along with lower values of systolic blood pressure (pre: 129 ± 3 vs post: 125 ± 3 mmHg; P < 0.05), stroke volume (pre: 89.4 ± 3.5 vs post: 76.8 ± 3.8 mL; P < 0.05), and cardiac output (pre: 7.00 ± 0.30 vs post: 6.51 ± 0.36 L/min; P < 0.05). Except for heart rate, the hemodynamic responses and the mean values during the two mental stress tests in the control experiment were similar (P > 0.05). In conclusion, a single bout of maximal dynamic exercise attenuates the blood pressure response to mental stress in healthy subjects, along with lower stroke volume and cardiac output, denoting an acute modulatory action of exercise on the central hemodynamic response to mental stress.

Dynamic expression of desmin, α-SMA and TGF-β1 during hepatic fibrogenesis induced by selective bile duct ligation in young rats

We previously described a selective bile duct ligation model to elucidate the process of hepatic fibrogenesis in children with biliary atresia or intrahepatic biliary stenosis. Using this model, we identified changes in the expression of alpha smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) both in the obstructed parenchyma and in the hepatic parenchyma adjacent to the obstruction. However, the expression profiles of desmin and TGF-β1, molecules known to be involved in hepatic fibrogenesis, were unchanged when analyzed by semiquantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Thus, the molecular mechanisms involved in the modulation of liver fibrosis in this experimental model are not fully understood. This study aimed to evaluate the molecular changes in an experimental model of selective bile duct ligation and to compare the gene expression changes observed in RT-PCR and in real-time quantitative PCR (qRT‐PCR). Twenty-eight Wistar rats of both sexes and weaning age (21-23 days old) were used. The rats were separated into groups that were assessed 7 or 60 days after selective biliary duct ligation. The expression of desmin, α-SMA and TGF-β1 was examined in tissue from hepatic parenchyma with biliary obstruction (BO) and in hepatic parenchyma without biliary obstruction (WBO), using RT-PCR and qRT‐PCR. The results obtained in this study using these two methods were significantly different. The BO parenchyma had a more severe fibrogenic reaction, with increased α-SMA and TGF-β1 expression after 7 days. The WBO parenchyma presented a later, fibrotic response, with increased desmin expression 7 days after surgery and increased α-SMA 60 days after surgery. The qRT‐PCR technique was more sensitive to expression changes than the semiquantitative method.