Forecasting daily volatility using high frequency financial data

Aiming at empirical findings, this work focuses on applying the HEAVY model for daily volatility with financial data from the Brazilian market. Quite similar to GARCH, this model seeks to harness high frequency data in order to achieve its objectives. Four variations of it were then implemented and their fit compared to GARCH equivalents, using metrics present in the literature. Results suggest that, in such a market, HEAVY does seem to specify daily volatility better, but not necessarily produces better predictions for it, what is, normally, the ultimate goal. The dataset used in this work consists of intraday trades of U.S. Dollar and Ibovespa future contracts from BM&FBovespa.

Tradução, adaptação cultural e análise das propriedades psicométricas do activities of daily living questionnaire - ADLQ - para avaliação funcional de pacientes com a doença de alzheimer

O Activities daily living questionnaire - ADLQ foi elaborado para avaliar atividades básicas e instrumentais em pacientes com a doença de Alzheimer. O objetivo principal deste estudo consistiu em realizar a tradução do ADLQ para a língua portuguesa, adaptação transcultural e análise das suas propriedades psicométricas. A amostra foi composta por 60 pacientes e os respectivos 60 cuidadores. O estudo iniciou-se com a tradução do instrumento pela técnica de retrotradução associada ao método bilíngüe. A versão traduzida foi respondida pelo cuidador e o Mini Exame do Estado Mental (MEEM) aplicado ao paciente. A análise psicométrica foi realizada através da validade das medidas do instrumento. Os resultados verificaram uma correlação inversamente significativa (r=-0,793;p<0,05) entre os instrumentos avaliados, com uma explicação da variância total de 62%. A coerência interna do instrumento foi realizada através da correlação com os resultados do MEEM sugerindo uma versão condensada do ADLQ. Avaliando-se através do teste t para amostras correlacionadas, as médias do ADLQ-versão traduzida e versão condensada não apresentaram diferenças significativas, demonstrado assim que a simplificação do instrumento não alterou os valores do nível de dependência funcional observados. A análise fatorial realizada através da rotação Varimax indicou seis dimensões. Atividades como; comer, vestir-se, banho, necessidades fisiológicas, tomar comprimidos, participação em grupos, administrar finanças, manusear dinheiro, locomover pela vizinhança, usar telefone, compreensão, dentre outras, são os mais importantes preditores da capacidade funcional, no grupo estudado. Atividades com desempenho pouco comum a ambos os sexos, e no desempenho de papéis sociais enquanto gênero na sociedade brasileira (afazeres domésticos, consertos e manutenção em casa), na amostra estudada, não demonstraram ter importância na determinação da capacidade funcional com o paciente com a Doença de Alzheimer. O presente estudo disponibiliza uma nova ferramenta de avaliação funcional, visando contribuir para a mensuração mais cuidadosa do estado funcional do paciente por todos os profissionais da área da saúde

O tratamento ortodôntico em uma perspectiva a longo prazo: avaliação da estabilidade oclusal e do grau de satisfação dos pacientes

This study aimed to evaluate factors associated to orthodontic treatment stability and patient satisfaction in the long-term. A total of 209 patients (88 class I and 121 class II) treated with straight wire fixed appliance were selected at least 5 years post treatment. Six hundred twenty seven dental casts were examined with the PAR Index at pretreatment (T1), end of treatment (T2), and at long-term follow up (T3, mean 8.5 years post treatment). At T3, a Dental Impact on Daily Living questionnaire was used to assess patient satisfaction with the dentition in the long-term. Friedman test and multiple regression analysis were used to evaluate changes among the time points and factors associated with stability and patient satisfaction. Predictive factors used to exam the occlusion were: PAR Index at T1 and T2, age at T1, the amount of time without retainer, length of Hawley retainer wear, length of follow-up, sex, extraction and third molar status. To assess patient satisfaction were considered: changes produced by the orthodontic treatment (PAR T2-T1), post treatment stability (PAR T3), age at the start of treatment (T1), length of treatment (T2-T1), gender, and extraction. Orthodontic treatment produced a significant improvement of 94.2% in the PAR Index (T2-T1), but this change was not associated with the level of satisfaction when the patient was questioned at T3. No significant change was observed between T2 and T3. However, when the sample was divided according to the level of finalization (PAR T2), it was observed that well-finished patients experienced some deterioration (P<.001), whereas the less well-finished ones showed some improvement (P<.05). Even with the deterioration, the well-finished patients still had a better PAR Index at T3 compared to the less well-finished ones (PAR T2- T3). Regression analysis showed that PAR Index at T1 and T2, age at T1, and length of retainer wear had a slight association with occlusal stability (R2 = 0.27). Patient satisfaction was significantly associated only with PAR Index at T3 (r2=0.125, P<.0001). We can conclude that, even thought orthodontic treatment is quite stable, not so well-finished treatments tend to show some improvement and well-finished ones deteriorate some in the long-term. Despite of that, well-finished patients still have better occlusal characteristics. Patient satisfaction is not related to the result of orthodontic treatment; nevertheless, there is a slight association with dentition in the long-term

Estimates of genetic parameters for visual scores and daily weight gain in Brangus animals

(Co) variance components were estimated for visual scores of conformation (CY), early finishing (PY) and muscling (MY) at 550 days of age (yearling), average daily gain from weaning to yearling (GWY), conformation (CW), early finishing (PW) and muscling (MW) scores at weaning, and average daily gain from birth to weaning (GBW) in animals forming the Brazilian Brangus breed born between 1986 and 2002 from the livestock files of GenSys Consultants Associados S/C Ltda. The data set contained 53 683; 45 136; 52 937; 56 471; 24 531; 21 166; 24 006 and 25 419 records for CW, PW, MW, GBW, CY, PY, MY and GWY, respectively. Data were analyzed by the restricted maximum likelihood method using single-and two-trait animal models. Direct heritability estimates obtained by single-trait analysis were 0.12, 0.14, 0.13 and 0.14 for CY, PY and MY scores and GWY, respectively. A positive association was observed between the same visual scores at weaning and yearling, with correlations ranging from 0.64 to 0.94. Estimated correlations between GBW and weaning and yearling scores ranged from 0.60 to 0.77. The genetic correlation between GBW and GWY was low (0.10), whereas correlations of 0.55, 0.37 and 0.47 were observed between GWY and CY, PY and MY, respectively. Moreover, GWY showed a weak correlation with CW (0.10), PW (-0.08) and MW (-0.03) scores. These results indicate that selection of the traits that was studied would result in a small response. In addition, selection based on average daily gain may have an indirect effect on visual scores as the correlations between GWY and visual scores were generally strong.

Prediction of intake and average daily gain by different feeding systems for goats

A main purpose of a mathematical nutrition model (a.k.a., feeding systems) is to provide a mathematical approach for determining the amount and composition of the diet necessary for a certain level of animal productive performance. Therefore, feeding systems should be able to predict voluntary feed intake and to partition nutrients into different productive functions and performances. In the last decades, several feeding systems for goats have been developed. The objective of this paper is to compare and evaluate the main goat feeding systems (AFRC, CSIRO, NRC, and SRNS), using data of individual growing goat kids from seven studies conducted in Brazil. The feeding systems were evaluated by regressing the residuals (observed minus predicted) on the predicted values centered on their means. The comparisons showed that these systems differ in their approach for estimating dry matter intake (DMI) and energy requirements for growing goats. The AFRC system was the most accurate for predicting DMI (mean bias = 91 g/d, P < 0.001; linear bias 0.874). The average ADG accounted for a large part of the bias in the prediction of DMI by CSIRO, NRC, and, mainly, AFRC systems. The CSIRO model gave the most accurate predictions of ADG when observed DMI was used as input in the models (mean bias 12 g/d, P < 0.001; linear bias -0.229). while the AFRC was the most accurate when predicted DMI was used (mean bias 8g/d. P > 0.1; linear bias -0.347). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic parameter estimates for live weight and daily live weight gain obtained for Nellore bulls in a test station using different models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Longitudinal study of daily variation of rats' behavior in the elevated plus-maze

We conducted a longitudinal study about daily variation of Wistar male rats' behavior in the elevated plus-maze (EPM) evaluated in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 12th, and 18th months of life. Animals were submitted to the plus-maze in 12 sessions at 2-h intervals (n=72, 6 per time point). Spontaneous rest-activity rhythm of four animals was assessed by observation of 24-h videotape records. Time series were analyzed by Cosinor method. Behavioral rates on the six occasions and in light and dark phases were compared by means of two-way ANOVA with repeated measures. Exploratory behavior in EPM was smaller in the light phase and in older animals. Higher values of open and closed arms exploration were observed in the first and third months of the dark phase, and in the first month of the light phase. Adjustment to the 24-h period was significant at all stages for rest-activity data, number of entries in closed arms, and time on center, and for three to five stages for open-arm exploration. In general, 24 h variability was more pronounced in younger animals compared with older ones. The present study showed that: (1) a significant amount of total variability of the behavioral indexes analyzed could be attributed to 24 h variation, (2) light/dark phases differences in EPM exploration were present at all developmental stages, (3) older Wistar rats explored less the EPM and were less active in their home cage compared with younger ones, and (4) behavioral indexes (EPM) decrease was phase related and partially related to a reorganization of rest-activity rhythm. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mucociliary clearance and its relation with the level of physical activity in daily life in healthy smokers and nonsmokers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Energy expenditure during daily activities as measured by two motion sensors in patients with COPD

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The effect of WC-17Co thermal spray coating by HVOF and hard chromium electroplating on the fatigue life and abrasive wear resistance of AISI 4340 high strength steel

One of the most interesting alternatives for replacement of hard chrome plating is tungsten carbide thermal spray coating applied by the high velocity oxy-fuel (HVOF) process which presents a safer, cleaner and less expensive alternative to chromium plating. The objective of this research is to compare the influence of the tungsten carbide-17cobalt (WC- 17Co) coating applied by high velocity oxy fuel (HVOF) process with that of hard-chromium electroplating on the fatigue strength and abrasive wear of AISI 4340 steel.

An investigation on sliding wear behavior of PVD coatings

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Wear resistance of nickel-titanium endodontic files after surface treatment

Objectives The purpose of this work was to submit the Nitinol files to plasma immersion ion implantation (PIII) and evaluate the effects of the surface treatment. Materials and Methods Wear resistance was determined in vitro by using an equipment for the application of horizontal movements on previously prepared notched plates made of resin. Vickers microhardness was measured in plates and files, before and after surface treatment and the surface chemical composition of the instruments was determined by X-rays photoelectron spectroscopy. Results The hardness values found for the treated Nitinol files were significantly lower than the hardness values measured before the implantation process. The comparison of commercially available instruments shows that the wear resistance of the stainless steel file is higher than the resistance of the Nitinol. Conclusions The results found led to the conclusion that the surface treatment significantly increased the Nitinol files wear resistance.

Wear resistance of experimental titanium alloys for dental applications

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Wear Particle Classifier System Based on an Artificial Neural Network

This paper describes a method of identifying morphological attributes that classify wear particles in relation to the wear process from which they originate and permit the automatic identification without human expertise. The method is based on the use of Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) for analysis of specific types of microscopic wear particles. The classification of the wear particles was performed according to their morphological attributes of size and aspect ratio, among others. (C) 2010 Journal of Mechanical Engineering. All rights reserved.

High volume peritoneal dialysis vs daily hemodialysis: A randomized, controlled trial in patients with acute kidney injury

There is no consensus in the literature on the best renal replacement therapy (RRT) in acute kidney injury (AKI), with both hemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) being used as AKI therapy. However, there are concerns about the inadequacy of PD as well as about the intermittency of HD complicated by hemodynamic instability. Recently, continuous replacement renal therapy (CRRT) have become the most commonly used dialysis method for AKI around the world. A prospective randomized controlled trial was performed to compare the effect of high volume peritoneal dialysis (HVPD) with daily hemodialysis (DHD) on AKI patient survival. A total of 120 patients with acute tubular necrosis (ATN) were assigned to HVPD or DHD in a tertiary-care university hospital. The primary end points were hospital survival rate and renal function recovery, with metabolic control as the secondary end point. Sixty patients were treated with HVPD and 60 with DHD. The HVPD and DHD groups were similar for age ( 64.2 +/- 19.8 and 62.5 +/- 21.2 years), gender ( male: 72 and 66%), sepsis ( 42 and 47%), hemodynamic instability ( 61 and 63%), severity of AKI ( Acute Tubular Necrosis-Index Specific Score (ATN-ISS): 0.68 +/- 0.2 and 0.66 +/- 0.2), Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation Score (APACHE II) (26.9 +/- 8.9 and 24.1 +/- 8.2), pre-dialysis BUN (116.4 +/- 33.6 and 112.6 +/- 36.8mg per 100 ml), and creatinine ( 5.8 +/- 1.9 and 5.9 +/- 1.4 mg per 100 ml). Weekly delivered Kt/V was 3.6 +/- 0.6 in HVPD and 4.7 +/- 0.6 in DHD ( P<0.01). Metabolic control, mortality rate ( 58 and 53%), and renal function recovery ( 28 and 26%) were similar in both groups, whereas HVPD was associated with a significantly shorter time to the recovery of renal function. In conclusion, HVPD and DHD can be considered as alternative forms of RRT in AKI.