Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Quantum coherence and uncertainty in the anisotropic XY chain

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A note on model uncertainty in linear regression

We consider model selection uncertainty in linear regression. We study theoretically and by simulation the approach of Buckland and co-workers, who proposed estimating a parameter common to all models under study by taking a weighted average over the models, using weights obtained from information criteria or the bootstrap. This approach is compared with the usual approach in which the 'best' model is used, and with Bayesian model averaging. The weighted predictor behaves similarly to model averaging, with generally more realistic mean-squared errors than the usual model-selection-based estimator.

Push-out bond strength of calcium hydroxide and mineral trioxide aggregate based sealers

The adhesiveness of six root canal sealers: Acroseal, Endo CPM, Epiphany, White MTA, Sealapex and Sealer 26 to dentin, was evaluated in a push-out test design. Methods: Twenty eight roots of freshly extracted teeth were gauged with a size 5 Largo drill. With a cutting machine slices of 2 mm were prepared, rinsed with 5.25% NaOCl and a final rinse with 17% EDTA, dried and filled with one of the sealers. After setting their bond strength was measured in a mechanical testing machine. The data were statistically analyzed by using a One Way ANOVA and post hoc Tukey test. Results: The mean and standard deviation from values of bond strength was: Sealapex 2.2±0.4; Endo CPM 3.8±1.3; White MTA 6.0±1.4; Epiphany 10.9±2.6; Sealer 26 12.3±2.3; and Acroseal 12.2±1.4. Acroseal, Sealer 26 and Epiphany presented a significantly (P<0.01) greater bond strength compared with the other sealers. Also White MTA showed higher adhesiveness compared with Endo CPM and Sealapex (P<0.01). Conclusion: The bond strength between endodontic sealers and root dentin was maximal when Acroseal, Sealer 26 and Epiphany were used; Sealapex e Endo CPM, in turn, presented the lowest bond strength mean values.

Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Combined therapy with mineral trioxide aggregate, and guided tissue regeneration for a large radicular cyst: a 13-year follow-u

Biomaterials such as membrane barriers and/or bone grafts are often used to enhance periapical new bone formation. A combination of apical surgery and these biomaterials is one of the latest treatment options for avoiding tooth extraction. In case of periapical lesions, guided tissue regeneration (GTR) is attempted to improve the self-regenerative healing process by excluding undesired proliferation of the gingival connective tissue or migration of the oral epithelial cells into osseous defects. In many cases, GTR is necessary for achieving periodontal tissue healing. This report describes the healing process after surgery in a challenging case with a long-term followup. In this case report, endodontic surgery was followed by retrograde sealing with mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA) in the maxillary right central incisor and left lateral incisor. Apicectomy was performed in the maxillary left central incisor and a 1-mm filling was removed. The bone defect was filled with an anorganic bone graft and covered with a decalcified cortical osseous membrane. No intraoperative or postoperative complications were observed. After 13 years of follow-up, the patient showed no clinical signs or symptoms associated with the lesion and radiographic examination showed progressive resolution of radiolucency. In conclusion, the combination of apical surgery and regenerative techniques can successfully help the treatment of periapical lesions of endodontic origin and is suitable for the management of challenging cases

Root reconstructed with mineral trioxide aggregate and guided tissue regeneration in apical surgery: a 5-year follow-up

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.

Periapical Tissue Response After Use of Intermediate Restorative Material, Gutta-Percha, Reinforced Zinc Oxide Cement, and Mineral Trioxide Aggregate as Retrograde Root-End Filling Materials: A Histologic Study in Dogs

Purpose: To investigate the periapical tissue response of 4 different retrograde root-filling materials, ie, intermediate restorative material, thermoplasticized gutta-percha, reinforced zinc oxide cement (Super-EBA), and mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA), in conjunction with an ultrasonic root-end preparation technique in an animal model. Materials and Methods: Vital roots of the third and fourth right mandibular premolars in 6 healthy mongrel dogs were apicectomized and sealed with 1 of the materials using a standardized surgical procedure. After 120 days, the animals were sacrificed and the specimens were analyzed radiologically, histologically, and scanning electron microscopically. The Fisher exact test was performed on the 2 outcome values. Results: Twenty-three sections were analyzed histologically. Evaluation showed better re-establishment of the periapical tissues and generally lower inflammatory infiltration in the sections from teeth treated with the intermediate restorative material and the MTA. New root cement on the resected dentin surfaces was seen on all sections regardless of the used material. New hard tissue formation, directly on the surface of the material, was seen only in the MTA sections. There was no statistical difference in outcome among the tested materials. Conclusions: The results from this dog model favor the intermediate restorative material and MTA as retrograde fillings when evaluating the bone defect regeneration. MTA has the most favorable periapical tissue response when comparing the biocompatibility of the materials tested. (C) 2012 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Surg 70:2041-2047, 2012

Mapping an uncertainty zone between interpolated types of a categorical variable

Categorical data cannot be interpolated directly because they are outcomes of discrete random variables. Thus, types of categorical variables are transformed into indicator functions that can be handled by interpolation methods. Interpolated indicator values are then backtransformed to the original types of categorical variables. However, aspects such as variability and uncertainty of interpolated values of categorical data have never been considered. In this paper we show that the interpolation variance can be used to map an uncertainty zone around boundaries between types of categorical variables. Moreover, it is shown that the interpolation variance is a component of the total variance of the categorical variables, as measured by the coefficient of unalikeability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of Different Radiopacifying Agents on the Physicochemical Properties of White Portland Cement and White Mineral Trioxide Aggregate

Introduction: The aim of this study was to evaluate the pH, calcium ion release, setting time, and solubility of white mineral trioxide aggregate (WMTA) and white Portland cement (WPC) combined with the following radiopacifying agents: bismuth oxide (BO), calcium tungstate (CT), and zirconium oxide (ZO). Methods: Fifty acrylic teeth with root-end filling material were immersed in ultrapure water for measurement of pH and calcium release (atomic absorption spectrophotometry) at 3, 24, 72, and 168 hours. For evaluation of setting time, each material was analyzed according to the American Society for Testing and Materials guidelines 266/08. The solubility test was performed according to American National Standards Institute/American Dental Association specification no. 57/2000. Solubility, setting time, and pH values were compared by using analysis of variance and Tukey test, and the values of calcium release were compared by the Kruskal-Wallis and Miller tests. The significance level was set at 5%. Results: The pH and calcium release were higher at 3 and 24 hours. WPC was the material with the higher values for both properties. WMTA had the greatest solubility among all materials (P < .05). All radiopacifiers increased the setting time of WPC, and WMTA had the shortest setting time among all materials (P < .05). Conclusions: All materials released calcium ions. Except for WPC/CT at 168 hours, all materials promoted an alkaline pH. On the basis of the obtained results, ZO and CT can be considered as potential radiopacifying agents to be used in combination with Portland cement. (J Endod 2012;38:394-397)

Evaluation of the propylene glycol association on some physical and chemical properties of mineral trioxide aggregate

Duarte MAH, Alves de Aguiar K, Zeferino MA, Vivan RR, Ordinola-Zapata R, Tanomaru-Filho M, Weckwerth PH, Kuga MC. Evaluation of the propylene glycol association on some physical and chemical properties of mineral trioxide aggregate. International Endodontic Journal, 45, 565570, 2012. Abstract Aim To evaluate the influence of propylene glycol (PG) on the flowability, setting time, pH and calcium ion release of mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA). Methodology Mineral trioxide aggregate was mixed with different proportions of PG, as follows: group 1: MTA + 100% distilled water (DW); group 2: MTA + 80% DW and 20% PG; group 3: MTA + 50% DW and 50% PG; group 4: MTA + 20% DW and 80% PG; group 5: MTA + 100% PG. The ANSI/ADA No. 57 was followed for evaluating the flowability and the setting time was measured by using ASTM C266-08. For pH and calcium release analyses, 50 acrylic teeth with root-end cavities were filled with the materials (n = 10) and individually immersed in flasks containing 10 mL deionized water. After 3 h, 24 h, 72 h and 168 h, teeth were placed in new flasks and the water in which each specimen was immersed had its pH determined by a pH metre and the calcium release measured by an atomic absorption spectrophotometer with a calcium-specific hollow cathode lamp. Data were analysed by using one-way anova test for global comparison and by using Tukeys test for individual comparisons. Results The highest value of flowability was observed with MTA + 20% DW and 80% PG and the lowest values were found with MTA + 100% DW. They were significantly different compared to the other groups (P < 0.05). The presence of PG did not affect the pH and calcium release. The MTA + 100% PG favoured the highest (P < 0.05) pH and calcium release after 3 h. Increasing the PG proportion interfered (P < 0.05) with the setting time; when used at the volume of 100% setting did not occur. Conclusion The addition of PG to MTA-Angelus increased its setting time, improved flowability and increased the pH and calcium ion release during the initial post-mixing periods. The ratio of 80% DW 20% PG is recommended.

A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supervised classification of basaltic aggregate particles based on texture properties

The strength and durability of materials produced from aggregates (e.g., concrete bricks, concrete, and ballast) are critically affected by the weathering of the particles, which is closely related to their mineral composition. It is possible to infer the degree of weathering from visual features derived from the surface of the aggregates. By using sound pattern recognition methods, this study shows that the characterization of the visual texture of particles, performed by using texture-related features of gray scale images, allows the effective differentiation between weathered and nonweathered aggregates. The selection of the most discriminative features is also performed by taking into account a feature ranking method. The evaluation of the methodology in the presence of noise suggests that it can be used in stone quarries for automatic detection of weathered materials.