Statistical analysis of spectral data: A methodology for designing an intelligent monitoring system for the diabetic foot

Early detection of (pre-)signs of ulceration on a diabetic foot is valuable for clinical practice. Hyperspectral imaging is a promising technique for detection and classification of such (pre-)signs. However, the number of the spectral bands should be limited to avoid overfitting, which is critical for pixel classification with hyperspectral image data. The goal was to design a detector/classifier based on spectral imaging (SI) with a small number of optical bandpass filters. The performance and stability of the design were also investigated. The selection of the bandpass filters boils down to a feature selection problem. A dataset was built, containing reflectance spectra of 227 skin spots from 64 patients, measured with a spectrometer. Each skin spot was annotated manually by clinicians as "healthy" or a specific (pre-)sign of ulceration. Statistical analysis on the data set showed the number of required filters is between 3 and 7, depending on additional constraints on the filter set. The stability analysis revealed that shot noise was the most critical factor affecting the classification performance. It indicated that this impact could be avoided in future SI systems with a camera sensor whose saturation level is higher than 106, or by postimage processing.

Second-order statistical structure of geomagnetic field reversals

From the autocorrelation function of geomagnetic polarity intervals, it is shown that the field reversal intervals are not independent but form a process akin to the Markov process, where the random input to the model is itself a moving average process. The input to the moving average model is, however, an independent Gaussian random sequence. All the parameters in this model of the geomagnetic field reversal have been estimated. In physical terms this model implies that the mechanism of reversal possesses a memory.

The envelope-based cyclic periodogram

Cyclostationary analysis has proven effective in identifying signal components for diagnostic purposes. A key descriptor in this framework is the cyclic power spectrum, traditionally estimated by the averaged cyclic periodogram and the smoothed cyclic periodogram. A lengthy debate about the best estimator finally found a solution in a cornerstone work by Antoni, who proposed a unified form for the two families, thus allowing a detailed statistical study of their properties. Since then, the focus of cyclostationary research has shifted towards algorithms, in terms of computational efficiency and simplicity of implementation. Traditional algorithms have proven computationally inefficient and the sophisticated "cyclostationary" definition of these estimators slowed their spread in the industry. The only attempt to increase the computational efficiency of cyclostationary estimators is represented by the cyclic modulation spectrum. This indicator exploits the relationship between cyclostationarity and envelope analysis. The link with envelope analysis allows a leap in computational efficiency and provides a "way in" for the understanding by industrial engineers. However, the new estimator lies outside the unified form described above and an unbiased version of the indicator has not been proposed. This paper will therefore extend the analysis of envelope-based estimators of the cyclic spectrum, proposing a new approach to include them in the unified form of cyclostationary estimators. This will enable the definition of a new envelope-based algorithm and the detailed analysis of the properties of the cyclic modulation spectrum. The computational efficiency of envelope-based algorithms will be also discussed quantitatively for the first time in comparison with the averaged cyclic periodogram. Finally, the algorithms will be validated with numerical and experimental examples.

Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

W physics at the ILC with polarized beams as a probe of the Littlest Higgs model

We study the possibility of using W pair production and leptonic decay of one of the W's at the ILC with polarized beams as a probe of the Littlest Higgs Model. We consider cross-sections, polarization fractions of the W's, leptonic decay energy and angular distributions, and left-right polarization asymmetry as probes of the model. With parameter values allowed by present experimental constraints detectable effects on these observables at typical ILC energies of 500 GeV and 800 GeV will be present. Beam polarization is further found to enhance the sensitivity.

A lower bound to the survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution for Markovian and non-Markovian dynamics in phase space

We derive a very general expression of the survival probability and the first passage time distribution for a particle executing Brownian motion in full phase space with an absorbing boundary condition at a point in the position space, which is valid irrespective of the statistical nature of the dynamics. The expression, together with the Jensen's inequality, naturally leads to a lower bound to the actual survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution. These are expressed in terms of the position-position, velocity-velocity, and position-velocity variances. Knowledge of these variances enables one to compute a lower bound to the survival probability and consequently the first passage distribution function. As examples, we compute these for a Gaussian Markovian process and, in the case of non-Markovian process, with an exponentially decaying friction kernel and also with a power law friction kernel. Our analysis shows that the survival probability decays exponentially at the long time irrespective of the nature of the dynamics with an exponent equal to the transition state rate constant.

Special issue on Current Trends in Physics

In 1974, the Russian physicist Vitaly Ginzburg wrote a book entitled `Key Problems of Physics and Astrophysics' in which he presented a selection of important and challenging problems along with speculations on what the future holds. The selection had a broad range, was highly personalized, and was aimed at the general scientist, for whom it made very interesting reading

Critical lattice size limit for synchronized chaotic state in one- and two-dimensional diffusively coupled map lattices

We consider diffusively coupled map lattices with P neighbors (where P is arbitrary) and study the stability of the synchronized state. We show that there exists a critical lattice size beyond which the synchronized state is unstable. This generalizes earlier results for nearest neighbor coupling. We confirm the analytical results by performing numerical simulations on coupled map lattices with logistic map at each node. The above analysis is also extended to two-dimensional P-neighbor diffusively coupled map lattices.

Quality certification and company performance: The newly developed country experience

This study investigates the impacts of ISO 9001:2008 certification on companies in Malaysia. Data were collected from CEOs and Managers through a questionnaire survey. A multivariate analysis and SPSS macro were used as statistical techniques to assess the effects of ISO 9001 certification. Results of the study indicate that ISO 9001 certified companies were having significantly greater benefits and financial performance compared to non-certified companies. However, no significant direct relationship between ISO 9001 certification and company's financial performance was found. A further investigation revealed that financial performance is actually directly related to quality and local and international business performance, which are significantly influenced by ISO 9001 certification. Therefore quality and business performances are involved in the mediational process between the financial performance of companies and ISO 9001 certification. The novelty of this research lies in the establishment of, for the first time, high level statistical relationship between ISO 9001 certification, its mediating factors and financial performance of companies.

Relationship between quality certification and financial and non-financial performance of organizations

At present, many countries have either embraced ISO9001 or used it as the basis of their national quality certification systems. However, few studies have been conducted to examine the benefits companies’ gain from achieving and implementing ISO9001 standards (Chikuku et al. 2012; Psomas et al. 2013; Sampaio et al. 2011a,b). Analysis has brought much more confused and uneven results across the countries. Turning to the experience of Malaysia, this country has witnessed a spectacular growth at an average rate of 9.89% per annum of ISO certificates issued to companies operating within its borders (ISO Survey 2012). While many companies rush to be ISO 9001 certified whether this brings about better benefits (both the financial and the non-financial) is still an open question. In this study, the research problems were first formulated from the literature and then a questionnaire survey was conducted to test the hypotheses. A survey was administered to chief executives officers and managers across manufacturing and service organizations in Malaysia. Multivariate analysis and SPSS macro developed by Preacher and Hayes were used as statistical techniques to the financial and non-financial benefits of ISO9001 certification. The survey instrument was a two-page questionnaire comprising three sections. The first section of the questionnaire covered the company’s profile. The second section consisted of 25 items on internal benefits and third section consisted of 7 items on external benefits measured on 1–5 Likert scale to assess the benefits of ISO9001 certification. Total 201 valid responses were received. Results of the study indicate that there was no significant direct relationship between ISO9001 certification and organizational financial performance, while strong statistical evidence was found to support the direct relationship between ISO9001 certification and non-financial performance. The findings of the study discovered that financial performance is actually directly related to two non-financial measures, namely quality performance and local and international business performance, which are directly and significantly influenced by ISO9001 certification. Therefore non-financial performance measures are involved in the mediational process. The findings will assist practitioners in taking right courses of action that make the implementation of this standard more effective. For example, the study findings study suggests that companies should put emphasize on nonfinancial factors to improve their financial performance.

A dynamic renormalization group study of active nematics

We carry out a systematic construction of the coarse-grained dynamical equation of motion for the orientational order parameter for a two-dimensional active nematic, that is a nonequilibrium steady state with uniaxial, apolar orientational order. Using the dynamical renormalization group, we show that the leading nonlinearities in this equation are marginally irrelevant. We discover a special limit of parameters in which the equation of motion for the angle field bears a close relation to the 2d stochastic Burgers equation. We find nevertheless that, unlike for the Burgers problem, the nonlinearity is marginally irrelevant even in this special limit, as a result of a hidden fluctuation-dissipation relation. 2d active nematics therefore have quasi-long-range order, just like their equilibrium counterparts.

Generalized survival in step fluctuations

The properties of the generalized survival probability, that is, the probability of not crossing an arbitrary location R during relaxation, have been investigated experimentally (via scanning tunneling microscope observations) and numerically. The results confirm that the generalized survival probability decays exponentially with a time constant tau(s)(R). The distance dependence of the time constant is shown to be tau(s)(R)=tau(s0)exp[-R/w(T)], where w(2)(T) is the material-dependent mean-squared width of the step fluctuations. The result reveals the dependence on the physical parameters of the system inherent in the prior prediction of the time constant scaling with R/L-alpha, with L the system size and alpha the roughness exponent. The survival behavior is also analyzed using a contrasting concept, the generalized inside survival S-in(t,R), which involves fluctuations to an arbitrary location R further from the average. Numerical simulations of the inside survival probability also show an exponential time dependence, and the extracted time constant empirically shows (R/w)(lambda) behavior, with lambda varying over 0.6 to 0.8 as the sampling conditions are changed. The experimental data show similar behavior, and can be well fit with lambda=1.0 for T=300 K, and 0.5

Turbulence-induced melting of a nonequilibrium vortex crystal in a forced thin fluid film

To gain a better understanding of recent experiments on the turbulence-induced melting of a periodic array of vortices in a thin fluid film, we perform a direct numerical simulation of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations forced such that, at low Reynolds numbers, the steady state of the film is a square lattice of vortices. We find that as we increase the Reynolds number, this lattice undergoes a series of nonequilibrium phase transitions, first to a crystal with a different reciprocal lattice and then to a sequence of crystals that oscillate in time. Initially, the temporal oscillations are periodic; this periodic behaviour becoming more and more complicated with increasing Reynolds number until the film enters a spatially disordered nonequilibrium statistical steady state that is turbulent. We study this sequence of transitions using fluid-dynamics measures, such as the Okubo-Weiss parameter that distinguishes between vortical and extensional regions in the flow, ideas from nonlinear dynamics, e.g. Poincare maps, and theoretical methods that have been developed to study the melting of an equilibrium crystal or the freezing of a liquid and that lead to a natural set of order parameters for the crystalline phases and spatial autocorrelation functions that characterize short- and long-range order in the turbulent and crystalline phases, respectively.

Hidden order in crackling noise during peeling of an adhesive tape

We address the longstanding problem of recovering dynamical information from noisy acoustic emission signals arising from peeling of an adhesive tape subject to constant traction velocity. Using the phase space reconstruction procedure we demonstrate the deterministic chaotic dynamics by establishing the existence of correlation dimension as also a positive Lyapunov exponent in a midrange of traction velocities. The results are explained on the basis of the model that also emphasizes the deterministic origin of acoustic emission by clarifying its connection to stick-slip dynamics.