Sovereign Credit Rating Announcements and Equity Market Response: Evidence from the European Markets

This thesis examines the equity market reactions on credit rating announcements. The study covers 12 European countries during the period of 2000-2012. By using an event study methodology and daily collected stock market returns, the impact of the sovereign credit rating announcements to national stock indices is examined. The thesis finds evidence for the rating downgrades having a statistically significant negative effect on the stock markets. This finding is in line with earlier literature (see Brooks, 2004). The paper also discusses whether the changes in the sovereign credit ratings are contagious, anticipated by the market, and persistent. There is some evidence found for the contagion effects in case of downgrades, but not for upgrades. Markets seem to anticipate rating upgrades, but not downgrades. In addition, market´s reaction towards rating announcements seems not to be persistent.

Determinants of credit risk in secured loans – Evidence from the auto loan industry

The purpose of this study is to examine attributes which have explanation power to the probability of default or serious overdue in secured auto loans. Another goal is to find out differences between defaulted loans and loans which have had payment difficulties but survived without defaulting. 19 independent variables used in this study reflect information available at the time of credit decision. These variables were tested with logistic regression and backward elimination procedure. The data includes 8931 auto loans from a Finnish finance company. 1118 of the contracts were taken by company customers and 7813 by private customers. 130 of the loans defaulted and 584 had serious payment problems but did not default. The maturities of those loans were from one month to 60 months and they have ended during year 2011. The LTV (loan-to-value) variable was ranked as the most significant explainer because of its strong positive relationship with probability of payment difficulties. Another important explainer in this study was the credit rating variable which got a negative relationship with payment problems. Also maturity and car age performed well having both a positive relationship with the probability of payment problems. When compared default and serious overdue situations, the most significant differences were found in the roles of LTV, Maturity and Gender variables.

Variations in weed population densities, rate of change and community diversity in RR-soybeans and RR-maize strip crops under two herbicide strategies

Concerns about the sustainability of large-scale, direct-drilled RR-soybeans (Glycine max), and RR-maize (Zea mays) under monoculture in central Argentina are growing steadily. An experiment was conducted during three consecutive years to determine the effects of crops and systems (monocultures and strips) and herbicide strategy on weed density, population rate of change (l), b community diversity (H´), crop yields and Land Equivalent Ratio (LER). Not only crops but also crop systems differentially influenced weed densities along their growth and development. For crop harvests, weed densities increased in both maize crop systems as compared to in the one for soybeans, but the lowest increase occurred in soybean strips. Differences were leveled by both herbicide strategies, which achieved 73% efficacy during the critical periods in both crops. l of annual monocotyledonous increased, thus shifting the weed community composition. Species richness and H´ were not affected by crop systems, but both herbicide strategies, particularly POST, either in soybeans in monoculture or in maize strips, significantly enhanced H´. Crop yields significantly increased in the maize-strip system with POST (Year 1) or PRE (Years 2 and 3) strategies, thus increasing LER above 1. Herbicide Environmental Load treatments fall within very low or low field use rating.

Developmental norms for eight instruments used in the neuropsychological assessment of children: studies in Brazil

Norms for a battery of instruments, including Denckla's and Garfield's tests of Motor Persistence, Benton's Right-Left Discrimination, two recall modalities (Immediate and Delayed) of the Bender Test, Wechsler's Digit Span, the Color Span Test and the Human Figure Drawing Test, were developed for the neuropsychological assessment of children in the greater Rio de Janeiro area. Additionally, the behavior of each child was assessed with the Composite Teacher Rating Scale (Brito GNO and Pinto RCA (1991) Journal of Clinical and Experimental Neuropsychology, 13: 417-418). A total of 398 children (199 boys and 199 girls balanced for age) with a mean age of 9.3 years (SD = 2.8), who were attending a public school in Niterói, were the subjects of this study. Gender and age had significant effects on performance which depended on the instrument. Nonachievers performed worse than achievers in most neuropsychological tests. Comparison of our data to the available counterparts in the United States revealed that American children outperformed Brazilian children on the Right-Left Discrimination, Forward Digit Span, Color Span and Human Figure Drawing Tests. Further analysis showed that the neurobehavioral data consist of different factorial dimensions, including Human Body Representation, Motor Persistence of the Legs, Orbito-Orobuccal Motor Persistence, Attention-Memory, Visuospatial Memory, Neuropsychomotor Speed, Hyperactivity-Inattention, and Anxiety-Negative Socialization. We conclude that gender and age should be taken into account when using the normative data for most of the instruments studied in the present report. Furthermore, we stress the need for major changes in the Brazilian public school system in order to foster the development of secondary cognitive abilities in our children

Differences between remaining ability and loss of capacity in maximum aerobic impairment

In the evaluation of exercise intolerance of patients with respiratory diseases the American Medical Association (AMA) and the American Thoracic Society (ATS) have proposed similar classifications for rating aerobic impairment using maximum oxygen uptake (VO2max) normalized for total body weight (ml min-1 kg-1). However, subjects with the same VO2max weight-corrected values may have considerably different losses of aerobic performance (VO2max expressed as % predicted). We have proposed a new, specific method for rating loss of aerobic capacity (VO2max, % predicted) and we have compared the two classifications in a prospective study involving 75 silicotic claimants. Logistic regression analysis showed that the disagreement between rating systems (higher dysfunction by the AMA/ATS classification) was associated with age >50 years (P<0.005) and overweight (P = 0.04). Interestingly, clinical (dyspnea score) and spirometric (FEV1) normality were only associated with the VO2max, % predicted, normal values (P<0.01); therefore, in older and obese subjects the AMA/ATS classification tended to overestimate the aerobic dysfunction. We conclude that in the evaluation of aerobic impairment in patients with respiratory diseases, the loss of aerobic capacity (VO2max, % predicted) should be used instead of the traditional method (remaining aerobic ability, VO2max, in ml min-1 kg-1).

Translation, adaptation and validation of the Roland-Morris questionnaire - Brazil Roland-Morris

The purpose of the present study was to translate the Roland-Morris (RM) questionnaire into Brazilian-Portuguese and adapt and validate it. First 3 English teachers independently translated the original questionnaire into Brazilian-Portuguese and a consensus version was generated. Later, 3 other translators, blind to the original questionnaire, performed a back translation. This version was then compared with the original English questionnaire. Discrepancies were discussed and solved by a panel of 3 rheumatologists and the final Brazilian version was established (Brazil-RM). This version was then pretested on 30 chronic low back pain patients consecutively selected from the spine disorders outpatient clinic. In addition to the traditional clinical outcome measures, the Brazil-RM, a 6-point pain scale (from no pain to unbearable pain), and its numerical pain rating scale (PS) (0 to 5) and a visual analog scale (VAS) (0 to 10) were administered twice by one interviewer (1 week apart) and once by one independent interviewer. Spearman's correlation coefficient (SCC) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were computed to assess test-retest and interobserver reliability. Cross-sectional construct validity was evaluated using the SCC. In the pretesting session, all questions were well understood by the patients. The mean time of questionnaire administration was 4 min and 53 s. The SCC and ICC were 0.88 (P<0.01) and 0.94, respectively, for the test-retest reliability and 0.86 (P<0.01) and 0.95, respectively, for interobserver reliability. The correlation coefficient was 0.80 (P<0.01) between the PS and Brazil-RM score and 0.79 (P<0.01) between the VAS and Brazil-RM score. We conclude that the Brazil-RM was successfully translated and adapted for application to Brazilian patients, with satisfactory reliability and cross-sectional construct validity.

Reliability and validity of the interactive observation scale for psychiatric inpatients applied by nursing aides in daily ward practice

The main characteristic of the nursing Interactive Observation Scale for Psychiatric Inpatients (IOSPI) is the necessity of interaction between raters and patients during assessment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the scale in the "real" world of daily ward practice and to determine whether the IOSPI can increase the interaction time between raters and patients and influence the raters' opinion about mental illness. All inpatients of a general university hospital psychiatric ward were assessed daily over a period of two months by 9 nursing aides during the morning and afternoon shifts, with 273 pairs of daily observations. Once a week the patients were interviewed by a psychiatrist who filled in the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). The IOSPI total score was found to show significant test-retest reliability (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.83) and significant correlation with the BPRS total score (r = 0.69), meeting the criteria of concurrent validity. The instrument can also discriminate between patients in need of further inpatient treatment from those about to be discharged (negative predictive value for discharge = 0.91). Using this scale, the interaction time between nursing aides and patients increased significantly (t = 2.93, P<0.05) and their opinion about the mental illness changed. The "social restrictiveness" factor of the opinion scale about mental illness showed a significant reduction (t = 4.27, P<0.01) and the "interpersonal etiology" factor tended to increase (t = 1.98, P = 0.08). The IOSPI was confirmed as a reliable and valid scale and as an efficient tool to stimulate the therapeutic attitudes of the nursing staff.

The cognitive subscale of the "Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale" in a Brazilian sample

The cognitive subscale of the "Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale" (ADAS-Cog) is widely used for the evaluation of dementia and is very popular in dementia drug trials because of the characteristics of the scale. The objective of the present study was to adapt the ADAS-Cog for use for the Brazilian population. A major problem is that education is variable, a fact that may influence performance in cognitive evaluation. This study was conducted on a control group (CG) of 96 subjects (25 males and 71 females aged 68 ± 8.6 years) and on 44 Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients (19 males and 25 females aged 72 ± 6.4 years) with mild dementia (Clinical Dementia Rating score 1). For statistical analysis groups were divided into three educational levels: I, 0-4 years of schooling (65 CG/20 AD); II, 5-11 years of schooling (19 CG/7 AD), and III, 12 or more years of schooling (12 CG/17 AD). The battery was applied according to original instructions. Total mean score for CG and AD was 10.9 and 22.9 for level I, 7.8 and 22.4 for level II, and 6.2 and 15.4 for level III, respectively. These results indicate that our version of the ADAS-Cog is useful to identify mild dementia, though there may be an overlapping when comparing high education demented with low education non-demented subjects.

Diagnostic profile of inpatients as a determinant of length of stay in a general hospital psychiatric unit

The aim of this study was to determine if the diagnostic profile of inpatients of a psychiatric unit in a general hospital influences the length of stay. The results of a retrospective survey comprising the first 16 years of operation of the Psychiatric Unit of the Ribeirão Preto General Hospital (PURP) showed that the progressive increase observed in the length of stay correlated with the increase in percentage of schizophrenia diagnosis, after the 8th year of hospital operation, and of affective disorders, after the 12th year. The length of hospitalization kept increasing until the 16th year, even though there was no change in the diagnostic profile of the patients admitted to the unit. In a prospective study encompassing the next six months, 61 inpatients were evaluated with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-III-R and the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). The results showed that 82% of the inpatients fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for the schizophrenic or affective disorder spectrum at admission, with a discharge rate slower than for other diagnoses, although the length of hospitalization did not significantly differ among diagnostic categories. The results further demonstrated that in every diagnostic category more than 50% of the patients stayed in hospital for more than one week after reaching a BPRS score equal to 6, indicative of discharge. Overall, these data suggest that the increase in length of hospitalization may be due to a higher percentage of patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia and affective disorder admitted to the PURP. In addition, patients with low symptomatic levels remained in hospital longer than they should have.

The size and prevalence of the cavum septum pellucidum are normal in subjects with panic disorder

Panic disorder is thought to involve dysfunction in the septohippocampal system, and the presence of a cavum septum pellucidum might indicate the aberrant development of this system. We compared the prevalence and size of cavum septum pellucidum in 21 patients with panic disorder and in 21 healthy controls by magnetic resonance imaging. The length of the cavum septum pellucidum was measured by counting the number of consecutive 1-mm coronal slices in which it appeared. A cavum septum pellucidum of >6 mm in length was rated as large. There was no significant difference in the proportion of patients (16 of 21 or 76.2%) and controls (18 of 21 or 85.7%) with a cavum septum pellucidum (P = 0.35, Fisher's exact test, one-tailed), and no members of either group had a large cavum septum pellucidum. The mean cavum septum pellucidum rating in the patient and control groups was 1.81 (SD = 1.50) and 2.09 (SD = 1.51), respectively. There were also no significant differences between groups when we analyzed cavum septum pellucidum ratings as a continuous variable (U = 196.5; P = 0.54). Across all subjects there was a trend towards a higher prevalence of cavum septum pellucidum in males (100%, 10 of 10) than females (75%, 24 of 32; P = 0.09, Fisher's exact test, one-tailed). Thus, we conclude that, while panic disorder may involve septo-hippocampal dysfunction, it is not associated with an increased prevalence or size of the cavum septum pellucidum.

Neuropsychological rehabilitation of memory deficits and activities of daily living in patients with Alzheimer's disease: a pilot study

Patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) gradually lose their cognitive competence, particularly memory, and the ability to perform daily life tasks. Neuropsychological rehabilitation is used to improve cognitive functions by facilitating memory performance through the use of external aids and internal strategies. The effect of neuropsychological rehabilitation through memory training - motor movements, verbal association, and categorization - and activities of daily living (ADL) training was tested in a sample of 5 elderly out-patients (mean age: 77.4 ± 2.88 years), with mild AD (Mini-Mental State Examination score: 22.20 ± 2.17) and their caregivers. All patients had been taking rivastigmine (6-12 mg/day) for at least 3 months before being assigned to the rehabilitation sessions, and they continued to take the medication during the whole program. Just before and after the 14-week neuropsychological rehabilitation program all patients were assessed by interviewers that did not participate in the cognitive training, using the Mini-Mental State Examination, Montgomery-Alsberg Depression Rating Scale, Hamilton Anxiety Scale, Interview to Determine Deterioration in Functioning in Dementia, Functional Test, Memory Questionnaire of Daily Living for patient and caregiver, Quality of Life Questionnaire for patient and caregiver, and a neuropsychological battery. The results showed a statistically significant improvement in ADL measured by Functional Test (P = 0.04), and only a small improvement in memory and psychiatric symptoms. Our results support the view that weekly stimulation of memory and training of ADL is believed to be of great value in AD treatment, not only delaying the progress of the disease, but also improving some cognitive functions and ADL, even though AD is a progressively degenerative disease.

A double-blind comparison of the effect of the antipsychotics haloperidol and olanzapine on sleep in mania

The effects of haloperidol and olanzapine on polysomnographic measures made in bipolar patients during manic episodes were compared. Twelve DSM-IV mania patients were randomly assigned to receive either haloperidol (mean ± SD final dosage: 5.8 ± 3.8 mg) or olanzapine (mean ± SD final dosage: 13.6 ± 6.9 mg) in a 6-week, double-blind, randomized, controlled clinical trial. One-night polysomnographic evaluation was performed before and after the haloperidol or olanzapine treatment. Psychopathology and illness severity were rated respectively with the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) and the Clinical Global Impressions - Bipolar version (CGI-BP). There was a significant improvement in the YMRS and CGI-BP scores at the end of the study for both groups. Mixed ANOVA used to compare the polysomnographic measures of both drugs demonstrated significant improvement in sleep measures with olanzapine. In the olanzapine group, statistically significant time-drug interaction effects on sleep continuity measures were observed: sleep efficiency (mean ± SEM pre-treatment value: 6.7 ± 20.3%; after-treatment: 85.7 ± 10.9%), total wake time (pre-treatment: 140.0 ± 92.5 min; after-treatment: 55.2 ± 44.2 min), and wake time after sleep onset (pre-treatment: 109.7 ± 70.8 min; after-treatment: 32.2 ± 20.7 min). Conversely, improvement of polysomnographic measures was not observed for the haloperidol group (P > 0.05). These results suggest that olanzapine is more effective than haloperidol in terms of sleep-promoting effects, although olanzapine is comparatively as effective as haloperidol in treating mania. Polysomnography records should provide useful information on how manic states can be affected by psychopharmacological agents.

Anxiety and depression in parents of a Brazilian non-clinical sample of attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) students

Higher prevalence rates of anxiety and depression have been reported in parents of children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The interaction between the burden of ADHD in offspring, a higher prevalence rate of this highly inherited disorder in parents, and comorbidities may explain this finding. Our objective was to investigate levels of ADHD, anxious and depressive symptomatology, and their relationship in parents of ADHD children from a non-clinical sample using a dimensional approach. The sample included 396 students enrolled in all eight grades of a public school who were screened for ADHD using the SNAP IV rating scale. Positive cases were confirmed through a semi-structured interview. Parents of all 26 ADHD students and 31 paired controls were enrolled. A sample of 36 parents of ADHD children (21 mothers, 15 fathers) and 30 parents of control children (18 mothers, 12 fathers) completed the Adult Self Report Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, and Beck Depression Inventory in order to investigate anxious and depressive symptomatology. Probands' mothers presented a higher level of ADHD symptomatology (with only inattention being a significant cluster). Again, mothers of ADHD children presented higher depressive and anxiety levels; however, these did not correlate with their own ADHD symptomatology. Only trait-anxiety levels were higher in ADHD mothers. Our findings suggest that: 1) anxious and depressive symptoms might be more prevalent in mothers of ADHD students; 2) anxious and depressive symptomatology might be independent of impairment associated with ADHD symptoms; 3) anxious and depressive symptoms are independent of the presence of ADHD.

Fatigue in a cohort of geriatric patients with and without Parkinson's disease

We evaluated the frequency of fatigue in geriatric patients with and without Parkinson's disease (PD) and correlated it with depression and excessive daytime sleepiness. We evaluated 100 patients from Hospital São Paulo, 50 with PD from the Neurologic Outpatient Clinic and 50 with non-neurologic diseases or oncologic diseases from the Geriatric Outpatient Clinic (controls). All patients who scored 28 or more on the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) were considered to have fatigue. Also, all patients were submitted to a structured interview to diagnose depression by the criteria of the American Psychiatric Association (DSM-IV, 4th version) and were evaluated by the Modified Impact of Fatigue Scale and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESE) to detect excessive daytime sleepiness. Demographic and disease details of all PD patients were recorded and the patients were examined and rated by the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Sale (UPDRS) and Hoehn-Yahr staging. Frequency of fatigue (FSS ≥28) was 70% for PD and 22% for controls. Twenty of 35 PD patients with fatigue had concomitant depression. Compared to controls, PD patients were found more frequently to have depression by DSM-IV criteria (44 vs 8%, respectively) and excessive daytime sleepiness by the ESE (44 vs 16%), although only depression was associated with fatigue. Fatigue was more frequent among depressed PD and control patients and was not correlated with PD duration or with UPDRS motor scores. ESE scores did not differ between patients with or without fatigue.

Effect of aerobic training on EEG alpha asymmetry and depressive symptoms in the elderly: a 1-year follow-up study

The effect of physical exercise on the treatment of depressive elderly adults has not been investigated thus far in terms of changes in cortical hemispheric activity. The objective of the present study was to identify changes in depressive symptoms, quality of life, and cortical asymmetry produced by aerobic activity. Elderly subjects with a diagnosis of major depressive disorder (DSM-IV) were included. Twenty patients (70% females, 71 ± 3 years) were divided into an exercise group (pharmacological treatment plus aerobic training) and a control group (undergoing pharmacological treatment) in a quasi-experimental design. Pharmacological treatment was maintained stable throughout the study (antidepressants and anxiolytics). Subjects were evaluated by depression scales (Beck Depression Inventory, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale) and the Short Form Health Survey-36, and electroencephalographic measurements (frontal and parietal alpha asymmetry) before and after 1 year of treatment. After 1 year, the control group showed a decrease in cortical activity on the right hemisphere (increase of alpha power), which was not observed in the exercise group. The exercise group showed a significant decrease of depressive symptoms, which was not observed in the control group. This result was also accompanied by improved treatment response and remission rate after 1 year of aerobic exercise associated with treatment. This study provides support for the effect of aerobic training on alpha activity and on depressive symptoms in elderly patients. Exercise facilitates the treatment of depressive elderly adults, leading to clinical and physical improvement and protecting against a decrease in cortical activity.