The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change.

A moving point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially-symmetrical ice sheets

Predicting the evolution of ice sheets requires numerical models able to accurately track the migration of ice sheet continental margins or grounding lines. We introduce a physically based moving point approach for the flow of ice sheets based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly and the waiting time behaviours to be modelled efficiently. A finite difference moving point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (continental radially-symmetrical shallow ice approximation). The scheme, which is inexpensive, is validated by comparing the results with moving-margin exact solutions and steady states. In both cases the scheme is able to track the position of the ice sheet margin with high precision.

"When I go to bed hungry and sleep, I'm not hungry": children and parents' experiences of food insecurity

Evidence demonstrates food insecurity has a detrimental impact on a range of outcomes for children, but little research has been conducted in the UK, and children have rarely been asked to describe their experiences directly. We examined the experiences of food insecure families living in South London. Our mixed-methods approach comprised a survey of parents (n = 72) and one-to-one semi-structured interviews with children aged 5-11 years (n = 19). The majority of parents (86%) described their food security during the preceding year as very low. Most reported they had often or sometimes had insufficient food, and almost all had worried about running out of food. Two thirds of parents had gone hungry. Most parents reported they had been unable to afford a nutritionally balanced diet for their children, and just under half reported that their children had gone hungry. Four themes emerged from the interviews with children: sources of food; security of food, nutritional quality of food, and experiences of hunger. Children's descriptions of insufficient food being available indicate that parents are not always able to shield them from the impact of food insecurity. The lack of school-meals and after-school clubs serving food made weekends particularly problematic for some children. A notable consequence of food insecurity appears to be reliance on low-cost takeaway food, likely to be nutritionally poor.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

Seasonal surface urban energy balance and wintertime stability simulated using three land-surface models in the high-latitude city Helsinki

The performance of three urban land surface models, run in offline mode, with their default external parameters, is evaluated for two distinctly different sites in Helsinki: Torni and Kumpula. The former is a dense city centre site with 22% vegetation, while the latter is a suburban site with over 50% vegetation. At both locations the models are compared against sensible and latent heat fluxes measured using the eddy covariance technique, along with snow depth observations. The cold climate experienced by the city causes strong seasonal variations that include snow cover and stable atmospheric conditions. Most of the time the three models are able to account for the differences between the study areas as well as the seasonal and diurnal variability of the energy balance components. However, the performances are not systematic across the modelled components, season and surface type. The net all-wave radiation is well simulated, with the greatest uncertainties related to snowmelt timing, when the fraction of snow cover has a key role, particularly in determining the surface albedo. For the turbulent fluxes, more variation between the models is seen which can partly be explained by the different methods in their calculation and partly by surface parameter values. For the sensible heat flux, simulation of wintertime values was the main problem, which also leads to issues in predicting near-surface stabilities particularly at the dense city centre site. All models have the most difficulties in simulating latent heat flux. This study particularly emphasizes that improvements are needed in the parameterization of anthropogenic heat flux and thermal parameters in winter, snow cover in spring and evapotranspiration in order to improve the surface energy balance modelling in cold climate cities.

A moving-point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially symmetrical ice sheets

Predicting the evolution of ice sheets requires numerical models able to accurately track the migration of ice sheet continental margins or grounding lines. We introduce a physically based moving-point approach for the flow of ice sheets based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly. Our approach is also well suited to capture waiting-time behaviour efficiently. A finite-difference moving-point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (continental radially symmetrical shallow ice approximation). The scheme, which is inexpensive, is verified by comparing the results with steady states obtained from an analytic solution and with exact moving-margin transient solutions. In both cases the scheme is able to track the position of the ice sheet margin with high accuracy.

Evaluation of simulated sea-ice concentrations from sea-ice/ocean models using satellite data and polynya classification methods

Sea-ice concentrations in the Laptev Sea simulated by the coupled North Atlantic-Arctic Ocean-Sea-Ice Model and Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model are evaluated using sea-ice concentrations from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System satellite data and a polynya classification method for winter 2007/08. While developed to simulate largescale sea-ice conditions, both models are analysed here in terms of polynya simulation. The main modification of both models in this study is the implementation of a landfast-ice mask. Simulated sea-ice fields from different model runs are compared with emphasis placed on the impact of this prescribed landfast-ice mask. We demonstrate that sea-ice models are not able to simulate flaw polynyas realistically when used without fast-ice description. Our investigations indicate that without landfast ice and with coarse horizontal resolution the models overestimate the fraction of open water in the polynya. This is not because a realistic polynya appears but due to a larger-scale reduction of ice concentrations and smoothed ice-concentration fields. After implementation of a landfast-ice mask, the polynya location is realistically simulated but the total open-water area is still overestimated in most cases. The study shows that the fast-ice parameterization is essential for model improvements. However, further improvements are necessary in order to progress from the simulation of large-scale features in the Arctic towards a more detailed simulation of smaller-scaled features (here polynyas) in an Arctic shelf sea.

Rapid selective separation of americium/curium from simulated nuclear forensic matrices using triazine ligands

In analysis of complex nuclear forensic samples containing lanthanides, actinides and matrix elements, rapid selective extraction of Am/Cm for quantification is challenging, in particular due the difficult separation of Am/Cm from lanthanides. Here we present a separation process for Am/Cm(III) which is achieved using a combination of AG1-X8 chromatography followed by Am/Cm extraction with a triazine ligand. The ligands tested in our process were CyMe4-BTPhen, CyMe4- BTBP, CA-BTP and CA-BTPhen. Our process allows for purification and quantification of Am and Cm (recoveries 80%–100%) and other major actinides in < 2d without the use of multiple columns or thiocyanate. The process is unaffected by high level Ca(II)/Fe(III)/Al(III) (10mg mL−1) and thus requires little pre-treatment of samples.

Disparity-defined objects moving in depth do not elicit three-dimensional shape constancy

Observers generally fail to recover three-dimensional shape accurately from binocular disparity. Typically, depth is overestimated at near distances and underestimated at far distances [Johnston, E. B. (1991). Systematic distortions of shape from stereopsis. Vision Research, 31, 1351–1360]. A simple prediction from this is that disparity-defined objects should appear to expand in depth when moving towards the observer, and compress in depth when moving away. However, additional information is provided when an object moves from which 3D Euclidean shape can be recovered, be this through the addition of structure from motion information [Richards, W. (1985). Structure from stereo and motion. Journal of the Optical Society of America A, 2, 343–349], or the use of non-generic strategies [Todd, J. T., & Norman, J. F. (2003). The visual perception of 3-D shape from multiple cues: Are observers capable of perceiving metric structure? Perception and Psychophysics, 65, 31–47]. Here, we investigated shape constancy for objects moving in depth. We found that to be perceived as constant in shape, objects needed to contract in depth when moving toward the observer, and expand in depth when moving away, countering the effects of incorrect distance scaling (Johnston, 1991). This is a striking example of the failure of shape con- stancy, but one that is predicted if observers neither accurately estimate object distance in order to recover Euclidean shape, nor are able to base their responses on a simpler processing strategy.

Moving on in Neolithic studies: understanding mobile lives

Mobility is a fundamental facet of being human and should be central to archaeology. Yet mobility itself and the role it plays in the production of social life, is rarely considered as a subject in its own right. This is particularly so with discussions of the Neolithic people where mobility is often framed as being somewhere between a sedentary existence and nomadic movements. This volume examines the importance and complexities of movement and mobility, whether on land or water, in the Neolithic period. It uses movement in its widest sense, ranging from everyday mobilities – the routines and rhythms of daily life – to proscribed mobility, such as movement in and around monuments, and occasional and large-scale movements and migrations around the continent and across seas. Papers are roughly grouped and focus on ‘mobility and the landscape’, ‘monuments and mobility’, ‘travelling by water’, and ‘materials and mobility’. Through these themes the volume considers the movement of people, ideas, animals, objects, and information, and uses a wide range of archaeological evidence from isotope analysis; artefact studies; lithic scatters and assemblage diversity.

The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on pre-harvest sprouting and subsequent seed longevity in contrasting rice cultivars

Unpredictable flooding is a major constraint to rice production. It can occur at any growth stage. The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on yield and subsequent seed quality of pot-grown rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants was investigated in glasshouses and controlled-environment growth cabinets. Submergence post-anthesis (9-40 DAA) for 3 or 5 days reduced seed weight of japonica rice cv. Gleva, with considerable pre-harvest sprouting (up to 53%). The latter was greater the later in seed development and maturation that flooding occurred. Sprouted seed had poor ability to survive desiccation or germinate normally upon rehydration, whereas the effects of flooding on the subsequent air-dry seed storage longevity (p50) of the non-sprouted seed fraction was negligible. The indica rice cvs IR64 and IR64Sub1 (introgression of submergence tolerance gene Submergence1A-1) were both far more tolerant to flooding post-anthesis than cv. Gleva: four days’ submergence of these two near-isogenic cultivars at 10-40 DAA resulted less than 1% sprouted seeds. The presence of the Sub1A-1 allele in cv. IR64Sub1 was verified by gel electrophoresis and DNA sequencing. It had no harmful effect on loss in seed viability during storage compared with IR64 in both control and flooded environments. Moreover, the germinability and changes in dormancy during seed development and maturation were very similar to IR64. The efficiency of using chemical spray to increase seed dormancy was investigated in the pre-harvest sprouting susceptible rice cv. Gleva. Foliar application of molybdenum at 100 mg L-1 reduced sprouted seeds by 15-21% following 4 days’ submergence at 20-30 DAA. Analyses confirmed that the treatment did result in molybdenum uptake by the plants, and also tended to increase seed abscisic acid concentration. The latter was reduced by submergence and declined exponentially during grain ripening. The selection of submergence-tolerant varieties was more successful than application of molybdenum in reducing pre-harvest sprouting.

A moving observer in a three-dimensional world

For many tasks, such as retrieving a previously viewed object, an observer must form a representation of the world at one location and use it at another. A world-based 3D reconstruction of the scene built up from visual information would fulfil this requirement, something computer vision now achieves with great speed and accuracy. However, I argue that it is neither easy nor necessary for the brain to do this. I discuss biologically plausible alternatives, including the possibility of avoiding 3D coordinate frames such as ego-centric and world-based representations. For example, the distance, slant and local shape of surfaces dictate the propensity of visual features to move in the image with respect to one another as the observer’s perspective changes (through movement or binocular viewing). Such propensities can be stored without the need for 3D reference frames. The problem of representing a stable scene in the face of continual head and eye movements is an appropriate starting place for understanding the goal of 3D vision, more so, I argue, than the case of a static binocular observer.

Rainfastness of poly(vinyl alcohol) deposits on Vicia faba leaf surfaces: from laboratory-scale washing to simulated rain

Rainfastness is the ability of agrochemical deposits to resist wash-off by rain and other related environmental phenomena. This work reports laboratory-scale and raintower studies of the rainfastness of fluorescently labeled poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) using fluorescent microscopy combined with image analysis. Samples of hydrolyzed PVA exhibit improved rainfastness over a threshold molecular weight, which correlates with PVA film dissolution, swelling, and crystalline properties. It was also established that the rainfastness of PVA scaled with the molecular weight over this threshold. These PVA samples were further characterized in order to determine the effect of the crystallinity on rainfastness. The quantification of rainfastness is of great interest to the field of agrochemical formulation development in order to improve the efficacy of pesticides and their adjuvants.

Effects of rain shelter or simulated rain during grain filling and maturation on subsequent wheat grain quality in the UK

The effects of simulated additional rain (ear wetting, 25 mm) or of rain shelter imposed at different periods after anthesis on grain quality at maturity and the dynamics of grain filling and desiccation were investigated in UK field-grown crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cvar Tybalt) in 2011 and in 2012 when June–August rainfall was 255.0 and 214.6 mm, respectively, and above the decadal mean (157.4 mm). Grain filling and desiccation were quantified well by broken-stick regressions and Gompertz curves, respectively. Rain shelter for 56 (2011) or 70 d (2012) after anthesis, and to a lesser extent during late maturation only, resulted in more rapid desiccation and hence progress to harvest maturity whereas ear wetting had negligible effects, even when applied four times. Grain-filling duration was also affected as above in 2011, but with no significant effect in 2012. In both years, there were strong positive associations between final grain dry weight and duration of filling. The treatments affected all grain quality traits in 2011: nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) concentrations, N:S ratio, sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) sedimentation volume, Hagberg Falling Number (HFN), and the incidence of blackpoint. Only N concentration and blackpoint were affected significantly by treatments in 2012. Rain shelter throughout grain filling reduced N concentration, whereas rain shelter reduced the incidence of blackpoint and ear wetting increased it. In 2011, rain shelter throughout reduced S concentration, increased N:S ratio and reduced SDS. Treatment effects on HFN were not consistent within or between years. Nevertheless, a comparison between the extreme treatment means in 2012 indicated damage from late rain combined with ear wetting resulted in a reduction of c. 0.7 s in HFN/mm August rainfall, whilst that between samples taken immediately after ear wetting at harvest maturity or 7 d later suggested recovery from damage to HFN upon re-drying in planta. Hence, the incidence of blackpoint was the only grain quality trait affected consistently by the diverse treatments. The remaining aspects of grain quality were comparatively resilient to rain incident upon developing and maturing ears of cvar Tybalt. No consistent temporal patterns of sensitivity to shelter or ear wetting were detected for any aspect of grain quality.

ENSO related variation of equatorial MRG and Rossby waves and forcing from higher latitudes

The contrasting behaviour of westward-moving mixed Rossby-gravity (WMRG) and the first Rossby (R1) waves in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) seasons is documented with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere winter. The eastward-moving variance in the upper troposphere is dominated by WMRG and R1 structures that appear to be Doppler-shifted by the flow and are referred to as WMRG-E and R1-E. In the East Pacific and Atlantic the years with stronger equatorial westerly winds have the stronger WMRG and WMRG- E. In the East Pacific, R1 is also a maximum in LN. However, R1-E exhibits an eastward-shift between LN and EN. The changes with ENSO phase provide a test-bed for the understanding of these waves. In the East Pacific and Atlantic, the stronger WMRG-E and WMRG with stronger westerlies are in accord with the dispersion relation with simple Doppler-shifting by the zonal flow. The possible existence of free waves can also explain stronger R1 in EN in the Eastern Hemisphere. 1-D free wave propagation theory based on wave activity conservation is also important for R1. However, this theory is unable to explain the amplitude maxima for other waves observed in the strong equatorial westerly regions in the Western Hemisphere, and certainly not their ENSO-related variation. The forcing of equatorial waves by higher latitude wave activity and its variation with ENSO phase is therefore examined. Propagation of extratropical eastward-moving Rossby wave activity through the westerly ducts into the equatorial region where it triggers WMRG-E is favoured in the stronger westerlies, in LN in the East Pacific and EN in the Atlantic. It is also found that WMRG is forced by Southern Hemisphere westward-moving wavetrains arching into the equatorial region where they are reflected. The most significant mechanism for both R1 and R1-E appear to be lateral forcing by subtropical wavetrains.