Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling Cued-Target Recall using Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation

This article presents and evaluates Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation using Cued-Target Recall Memory Modelling over multiple sources of Free Association data. Two components were evaluated: Whether Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation would provide a better framework than their classical psychological counterparts and how robust these models are across the different sources of Free Association data. In previous work, a formal model of cued-target recall did not exist and as such Target Activation was unable to be assessed directly. Further to that, the data source used was suspected of suffering from temporal and geographical bias. As a consequence, Target Activation was measured against cued-target recall data as an approximation of performance. Since then, a formal model of cued-target recall (PIER3) has been developed [10] with alternative sources of data also becoming available. This allowed us to directly model target activation in cued-target recall with human cued-target recall pairs and use multiply sources of Free Association Data. Featural Characteristics known to be important to Target Activation were measured for each of the data sources to identify any major differences that may explain variations in performance for each of the models. Each of the activation models were used in the PIER3 memory model for each of the data sources and was benchmarked against cued-target recall pairs provided by the University of South Florida (USF). Two methods where used to evaluate performance. The first involved measuring the divergence between the sets of results using the Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence with the second utilizing a previous statistical analysis of the errors [9]. Of the three sources of data, two were sourced from human subjects being the USF Free Association Norms and the University of Leuven (UL) Free Association Networks. The third was sourced from a new method put forward by Galea and Bruza, 2015 in which pseudo Free Association Networks (Corpus Based Association Networks - CANs) are built using co-occurrence statistics on large text corpus. It was found that the Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation not only outperformed the classical psychological model but was more robust across a variety of data sources.

Appendiceal sonography in children: A retrospective analysis as a platform for potential implementation of diagnostic categories

- Background Sonography is an important diagnostic tool in children with suspected appendicitis. Reported accuracy and appendiceal visualisation rates vary significantly, as does the management of equivocal ultrasound findings. The aim of this study was to audit appendiceal sonography at a tertiary children's hospital, and provide baseline data for a future prospective study. - Summary of work Records of children who underwent ultrasound studies for possible appendicitis between January 2008 and December 2010 were reviewed. Variables included patient demographics, sonographic appendix characteristics, and secondary signs. Descriptive statistics and analysis using ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U test, and ROC curves were performed. Mater Human Research Ethic Committee approval was granted. - Summary of results There were 457 eligible children. Using a dichotomous diagnostic model (including equivocal results), sensitivity was 89.6%, specificity 91.6%, and diagnostic yield of 40.7%. ROC curve analysis of a 6mm diameter cut-off was 0.88 AUC (95% CI 0.80 to 0.95). - Discussion and conclusions Sonography is an accurate test for acute appendicitis in children, with a high sensitivity and negative predictive value. A diameter of 6mm as an absolute cut-off in a binary model can lead to false findings. Results were compared with available literature. Recent publications propose categorising diameter1 and integrating secondary signs2 to improve accuracy and provide more meaningful results to clinicians. This study will be a benchmark for future studies with multiple diagnostic categorisation.

Safety of Repair, Maintenance, Minor Alteration, and Addition (RMAA) Works: A New Focus of Construction Safety

"Safety of RMAA works is an almost uncharted topic of rising importance internationally. Small construction contractors are particularly dependant on RMAA work, especially during times of recession, and they undertake more risks on these jobs than large companies do. This book is based on unique international research and consultancy projects which detail, investigate, and suggest solutions to the specific challenges of safety in RMAA works, based on case studies. Starting with an overview of safety in the wider construction industries of developed countries, the first half of this book also provides a comprehensive summary of relevant rules, regulations, and the resulting safety performances. The systems in the UK, US and Hong Kong are described and contrasted, giving the reader an understanding of how different regulatory approaches have yielded a variety of results. From this solid introduction, specific problems observed in RMAA work are examined through case studies, with reference to the underlying cultural and demographic factors, and a variety of practical engineering and management solutions are explored. This important and practical international work is essential reading for postgraduate students of health and safety in construction, construction project management, or construction in developing countries, as well as policy-makers and construction project managers."--Publisher website

Bending, vibration and buckling of simply supported thick orthotropic rectangular plates and laminates

This paper presents a unified exact analysis for the statics and dynamics of a class of thick laminates. A three-dimensional, linear, small deformation theory of elasticity solution is developed for the bending, vibration and buckling of simply supported thick orthotropic rectangular plates and laminates. All the nine elastic constants of orthotropy are taken into account. The solution is formally exact and leads to simple infinite series for stresses and displacements in flexure, forced vibration and "beam-column" type problems and to closed form characteristic equations for free vibration and buckling problems. For free vibration of plates, the present analysis yields a triply infinite spectrum of frequencies instead of only one doubly infinite spectrum by thin plate theory or three doubly infinite spectra by Reissner-Mindlin type analyses. Some numerical results are presented for plates and laminates. Comparison of results from thin plate, Reissner and Mindlin analyses with these yield some important conclusions regarding the validity and effects of the assumptions made in the approximate theories.

Reliability Analysis of Earth Dams

In the present study, results of reliability analyses of four selected rehabilitated earth dam sections, i.e., Chang, Tapar, Rudramata, and Kaswati, under pseudostatic loading conditions, are presented. Using the response surface methodology, in combination with first order reliability method and numerical analysis, the reliability index (beta) values are obtained and results are interpreted in conjunction with conventional factor of safety values. The influence of considering variability in the input soil shear strength parameters, horizontal seismic coefficient (alpha(h)), and location of reservoir full level on the stability assessment of the earth dam sections is discussed in the probabilistic framework. A comparison of results with those obtained from other method of reliability analysis, viz., Monte Carlo simulations combined with limit equilibrium approach, provided a basis for discussing the stability of earth dams in probabilistic terms, and the results of the analysis suggest that the considered earth dam sections are reliable and are expected to perform satisfactorily.

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

A rationalisation of fatigue thresholds in pearlitic steels using a theoretical model

From a detailed re-examination of results in the literature, the effects of microstructure sizes, namely interlamellar spacing, pearlitic colony size and the prior austentitic grain size on the thresholds for fatigue crack growth (ΔKth) and crack closure (Kcl, th) have been illustrated. It is shown that while interlamellar spacing explicitly controls yield strength, a similar effect on ΔKth cannot be expected. On the other hand, the pearlitic colony size is shown to strongly influence ΔKth and Kcl, th through the deflection and retardation of cracks at colony boundaries. Consequently, an increase in ΔKth and Kcl, th with colony size has been found. The development of a theoretical model to illustrate the effects of colony size, shear flow stress in the slip band and macroscopic yield strength on Kcl, th and ΔKth is presented. the model assumes colony boundaries as potential sites for slip band pile-up formation and subsequent crack deflection finally leading to zig-zag crack growth. Using the concepts of roughness induced crack closure, the magnitude of Kcl, th is quantified as a function of colony size. In deriving the model, the flow stress in the slip band has been considered to represent the work hardened state in pearlite. Comparison of the theoretically predicted trend with the experimental data demonstrates very good agreement. Further, the intrinsic or closure free component of the fatigue threshold, ΔKeff, th is found to be insensitive to colony size and interlamellar spacing. Using a criterion for intrinsic fatigue threshold which considers the attainment of a critical fracture stress over a characteristic distance corresponding to interlamellar spacing, ΔKth values at high R values can be estimated with reasonable accuracy. The magnitude of ΔKth as a function of colony size is then obtained by summing up the average value of experimentally obtained ΔKeff, th values and the predicted Kcl, th values as a function of colony size. Again, very good agreement of the theoretically predicted ΔKth values with those experimentally obtained has been demonstrated.

News Media, Crime and Fear of Violence

Finland witnessed a surge in crime news reporting during the 1990s. At the same time, there was a significant rise in the levels of fear of crime reported by surveys. This research examines whether and how the two phenomena: news media and fear of violence were associated with each other. The dissertation consists of five sub-studies and a summary article. The first sub-study is a review of crime reporting trends in Finland, in which I have reviewed prior research and used existing Finnish datasets on media contents and crime news media exposure. The second study examines the association between crime media consumption and fear of crime when personal and vicarious victimization experiences have been held constant. Apart from analyzing the impact of crime news consumption on fear, media effects on general social trust are analyzed in the third sub-study. In the fourth sub-study I have analyzed the contents of the Finnish Poliisi-TV programme and compared the consistency of the picture of violent crime between official data sources and the programme. In the fifth and final sub-study, the victim narratives of Poliisi-TV s violence news contents have been analyzed. The research provides a series of results which are unprecedented in Finland. First, it observes that as in many other countries, the quantity of crime news supply has increased quite markedly in Finland. Second, it verifies that exposure to crime news is related to being worried about violent victimization and avoidance behaviour. Third, it documents that exposure to TV crime reality-programming is associated with reduced social trust among Finnish adolescents. Fourth, the analysis of Poliisi-TV shows that it transmits a distorted view of crime when contrasted with primary data sources on crime, but that this distortion is not as big as could be expected from international research findings and epochal theories of sociology. Fifth, the portrayals of violence victims in Poliisi-TV do not fit the traditional ideal types of victims that are usually seen to dominate crime media. The fact that the victims of violence in Poliisi-TV are ordinary people represents a wider development of the changing significance of the crime victim in Finland. The research concludes that although the media most likely did have an effect on the rising public fears in the 1990s, the mechanism was not as straight forward as has often been claimed. It is likely that there are other factors in the fear-media equation that are affecting both fear levels and crime reporting and that these factors are interactive in nature. Finally, the research calls for a re-orientation of media criminology and suggests more emphasis on the positive implications of crime in the media. Keywords: crime, media, fear of crime, violence, victimization, news

Effect of stacking fault energy on the dynamic recrystallization during hot working of FCC metals: A study using processing maps

The influence of stacking fault energy (SFE) on the mechanism of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) during hot deformation of FCC metals is examined in the light of results from the power dissipation maps. The DRX domain for high SFE metals like Al and Ni occurred at homologous temperature below 0·7 and strain rates of 0·001 s−1 while for low SFE metals like Cu and Pb the corresponding values are higher than 0·8 and 100 s−1. The peak efficiencies of power dissipation are 50% and below 40% respectively. A simple model which considers the rate of interface formation (nucleation) involving dislocation generation and simultaneous recovery and the rate of interface migration (growth) occurring with the reduction in interface energy as the driving force, has been proposed to account for the effect of SFE on DRX. The calculations reveal that in high SFE metals, interface migration controls DRX while the interface formation is the controlling factor in low SFE metals. In the latter case, the occurrence of flow softening and oscillations could be accounted for by this model.

Chemoenzymatic Synthesis of Chiral Organosulfur Compounds

This thesis is primarily concerned with the enzyme- catalysed synthesis of sulfoxides using reductase and dioxygenase enzymes. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the topic of redox chemistry with particular emphasis on the application of reductase and dioxygenase enzymes in organosulfur chemistry. Earlier literature methods for the production of enantiopure sulfoxides are reviewed. A brief discussion of the methods used for the determination of enantiomeric excess and absolute configuration is provided. Chapter 2 contains results obtained using a range of whole-cell bacteria each using a dimethyl sulfoxide reductase enzyme. The synthesis of a series of racemic sulfoxides and the development of appropriate CSPHPLC analytical methods is discussed. Kinetic resolutions of a series of sulfoxides have been achieved. Chapter 3 contains a presentation of results using dioxygenase enzymes as biocatalysts for the asymmetric sulfoxidation of dialkyl sulfoxides including thioacetal sulfoxides. A new range of monosulfoxides, cis-dihydrodiols and cis- dihydrodiol sulfoxides have been isolated in enantiopure form. Chapter 4 is focussed on the application of chiral sulfoxides in synthesis. A new chemoenzymatic route to diol sulfoxide enantiomers and the derived enantiopure phenols and catechols is discussed. The application of chemically synthesised sulfoxide enantiomers in the production of hydroxy sulfoxides is reported. Chapter 5 provides a full experimental section where the synthesis of sulfides and racemic sulfoxides is included. The methods used in the isolation and characterisation of bioproducts from the biotransformation are discussed and full experimental details given.

Microbiological characterisation of soils : Evaluation of some critical steps in data collection and experimental design

The study of soil microbiota and their activities is central to the understanding of many ecosystem processes such as decomposition and nutrient cycling. The collection of microbiological data from soils generally involves several sequential steps of sampling, pretreatment and laboratory measurements. The reliability of results is dependent on reliable methods in every step. The aim of this thesis was to critically evaluate some central methods and procedures used in soil microbiological studies in order to increase our understanding of the factors that affect the measurement results and to provide guidance and new approaches for the design of experiments. The thesis focuses on four major themes: 1) soil microbiological heterogeneity and sampling, 2) storage of soil samples, 3) DNA extraction from soil, and 4) quantification of specific microbial groups by the most-probable-number (MPN) procedure. Soil heterogeneity and sampling are discussed as a single theme because knowledge on spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal variation is crucial when designing sampling procedures. Comparison of adjacent forest, meadow and cropped field plots showed that land use has a strong impact on the degree of horizontal variation of soil enzyme activities and bacterial community structure. However, regardless of the land use, the variation of microbiological characteristics appeared not to have predictable spatial structure at 0.5-10 m. Temporal and soil depth-related patterns were studied in relation to plant growth in cropped soil. The results showed that most enzyme activities and microbial biomass have a clear decreasing trend in the top 40 cm soil profile and a temporal pattern during the growing season. A new procedure for sampling of soil microbiological characteristics based on stratified sampling and pre-characterisation of samples was developed. A practical example demonstrated the potential of the new procedure to reduce the analysis efforts involved in laborious microbiological measurements without loss of precision. The investigation of storage of soil samples revealed that freezing (-20 °C) of small sample aliquots retains the activity of hydrolytic enzymes and the structure of the bacterial community in different soil matrices relatively well whereas air-drying cannot be recommended as a storage method for soil microbiological properties due to large reductions in activity. Freezing below -70 °C was the preferred method of storage for samples with high organic matter content. Comparison of different direct DNA extraction methods showed that the cell lysis treatment has a strong impact on the molecular size of DNA obtained and on the bacterial community structure detected. An improved MPN method for the enumeration of soil naphthalene degraders was introduced as an alternative to more complex MPN protocols or the DNA-based quantification approach. The main advantage of the new method is the simple protocol and the possibility to analyse a large number of samples and replicates simultaneously.

Modelling vacuum arcs : from plasma initiation to surface interactions

A better understanding of vacuum arcs is desirable in many of today's 'big science' projects including linear colliders, fusion devices, and satellite systems. For the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) design, radio-frequency (RF) breakdowns occurring in accelerating cavities influence efficiency optimisation and cost reduction issues. Studying vacuum arcs both theoretically as well as experimentally under well-defined and reproducible direct-current (DC) conditions is the first step towards exploring RF breakdowns. In this thesis, we have studied Cu DC vacuum arcs with a combination of experiments, a particle-in-cell (PIC) model of the arc plasma, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the subsequent surface damaging mechanism. We have also developed the 2D Arc-PIC code and the physics model incorporated in it, especially for the purpose of modelling the plasma initiation in vacuum arcs. Assuming the presence of a field emitter at the cathode initially, we have identified the conditions for plasma formation and have studied the transitions from field emission stage to a fully developed arc. The 'footing' of the plasma is the cathode spot that supplies the arc continuously with particles; the high-density core of the plasma is located above this cathode spot. Our results have shown that once an arc plasma is initiated, and as long as energy is available, the arc is self-maintaining due to the plasma sheath that ensures enhanced field emission and sputtering. The plasma model can already give an estimate on how the time-to-breakdown changes with the neutral evaporation rate, which is yet to be determined by atomistic simulations. Due to the non-linearity of the problem, we have also performed a code-to-code comparison. The reproducibility of plasma behaviour and time-to-breakdown with independent codes increased confidence in the results presented here. Our MD simulations identified high-flux, high-energy ion bombardment as a possible mechanism forming the early-stage surface damage in vacuum arcs. In this mechanism, sputtering occurs mostly in clusters, as a consequence of overlapping heat spikes. Different-sized experimental and simulated craters were found to be self-similar with a crater depth-to-width ratio of about 0.23 (sim) - 0.26 (exp). Experiments, which we carried out to investigate the energy dependence of DC breakdown properties, point at an intrinsic connection between DC and RF scaling laws and suggest the possibility of accumulative effects influencing the field enhancement factor.

Prediction of reaeration rates in square, stirred tanks

Experiments were conducted on the oxygen transfer coefficient, k(L)a(20), through surface aeration in geometrically similar square tanks, with a rotor of diameter D fitted with six flat blades. An optimal geometric similarity of various linear dimensions, which produced maximum k(L)a(20) for any rotational speed of rotor N by an earlier study, was maintained. A simulation equation uniquely correlating k = k(L)a(20)(nu/g(2))(1/3) (nu and g are kinematic viscosity of water and gravitational constant, respectively), and a parameter governing the theoretical power per unit volume, X = (ND2)-D-3/(g(4/3)nu(1/3)), is developed. Such a simulation equation can be used to predict maximum k for any N in any size of such geometrically similar square tanks. An example illustrating the application of results is presented. Also, it has been established that neither the Reynolds criterion nor the Froude criterion is singularly valid to simulate either k or K = k(L)a(20)/N, simultaneously in all the sizes of tanks, even through they are geometrically similar. Occurrence of "scale effects" due to the Reynolds and the Froude laws of similitude on both k and K are also evaluated.

A finite element assessment of flexural strength of prestressed concrete beams with fiber reinforcement

This paper presents an assessment of the flexural behavior of 15 fully/partially prestressed high strength concrete beams containing steel fibers investigated using three-dimensional nonlinear finite elemental analysis. The experimental results consisted of eight fully and seven partially prestressed beams, which were designed to be flexure dominant in the absence of fibers. The main parameters varied in the tests were: the levels of prestressing force (i.e, in partially prestressed beams 50% of the prestress was reduced with the introduction of two high strength deformed bars instead), fiber volume fractions (0%, 0.5%, 1.0% and 1.5%), fiber location (full depth and partial depth over full length and half the depth over the shear span only). A three-dimensional nonlinear finite element analysis was conducted using ANSYS 5.5 [Theory Reference Manual. In: Kohnke P, editor. Elements Reference Manual. 8th ed. September 1998] general purpose finite element software to study the flexural behavior of both fully and partially prestressed fiber reinforced concrete beams. Influence of fibers on the concrete failure surface and stress-strain response of high strength concrete and the nonlinear stress-strain curves of prestressing wire and deformed bar were considered in the present analysis. In the finite element model. tension stiffening and bond slip between concrete and reinforcement (fibers., prestressing wire, and conventional reinforcing steel bar) have also been considered explicitly. The fraction of the entire volume of the fiber present along the longitudinal axis of the prestressed beams alone has been modeled explicitly as it is expected that these fibers would contribute to the mobilization of forces required to sustain the applied loads across the crack interfaces through their bridging action. A comparison of results from both tests and analysis on all 15 specimens confirm that, inclusion of fibers over a partial depth in the tensile side of the prestressed flexural structural members was economical and led to considerable cost saving without sacrificing on the desired performance. However. beams having fibers over half the depth in only the shear span, did not show any increase in the ultimate load or deformational characteristics when compared to plain concrete beams. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.