A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Surface modification of bovine bone ash prepared by milling and acid washing process

Bovine bone ash is the main raw material for fabrication of bone china, a special kind of porcelain that has visual and mechanical advantages when compared to usual porcelains. The properties of bone china are highly dependent on the characteristics of the bone ash. However, despite a relatively common product, the science behind formulations and accepted fabrication procedures for bone china is not completely understood and deserves attention for future processing optimizations. In this paper, the influence of the preparation steps (firing, milling, and washing of the bones) on the physicochemical properties of bone ash particles was investigated. Bone powders heat-treated at temperatures varying from 700 to 1000 degrees C were washed and milled. The obtained materials were analyzed in terms of particle size distribution, chemical composition, density, specific surface area, FTIR spectroscopy, dynamic electrophoretic mobility, crystalline phases and scanning electron microscopy. The results indicated that bone ash does not significantly change in terms of chemistry and physical features at calcination temperatures above 700 degrees C. After washing in special conditions, one could only observe hydroxyapatite in the diffraction pattern. By FTIR it was observed that carbonate seems to be mainly concentrated on the surface of the powders. Since this compound can influence in the dispersion stability, and consequently in the quality of the final bone china product, and considering optimal washing parameters based on the dynamic electrophoretic mobility results, we describe a procedure for surface cleaning. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd and Techna Group S.r.l. All rights reserved.

OPTIMIZATION OF THE TREATMENT PROCESS FOR RESIDUAL WATER FROM A BEER INDUSTRY

The optimization of the treatment process for residual waters from a brewery operating under the modality of an anaerobic reactor and activated sludge combination was studied in two phases. In the first stage, lasting for six months, the characteristics and parameters of the plant operation were analyzed, wherein a diversion rate of more than 50% to aerobic treatment, the use of two aeration tanks and a high sludge production prevailed. The second stage comprised four months during which the system worked under the proposed operational model, with the aim of improving the treatment: reduction of the diversion rate to 30% and use of only one aeration tank At each stage, TSS, VSS and COD were measured at the entrance and exit of the anaerobic reactor mid the aeration tanks. The results were compared with the corresponding design specifications and the needed conditions were applied to reduce the diversion rate towards the aerobic process through monitoring the volume and concentration of the affluent, while applying the strategic changes in reactor parameters needed to increase its efficiency. A diversion reduction from 53 to 34% was achieved, reducing the sludge discharge generated in the aerobic system from 3670mg TSS/l. with two aeration tanks down to 2947mf TSS/l using one tank keeping the same relation VSS:TSS (0.55) and an efficiency of total removal of 98% in terms of COD.

Saxitoxins accumulation by freshwater tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) for human consumption

The accumulation of saxitoxins (STXs) in fish from freshwater aquaculture was investigated for the first time in the present study. Cyanotoxins have been monitored in liver and muscle samples of Oreochromis miloticus by chromatographic methods, both before and after the deputation process. The results show that tilapia can accumulate STXs. Our findings suggest that deputation with clean water is an alternative process to eliminate STXs from fish and, therefore, improve the safety of tilapia for consumers. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between decay fungi and subterranean termites in the wood biodeterioration process of Tipuana tipu (Benth.) O. Kuntze trees of Sao Paulo city, SP

In the present paper the process of wood biodeterioration of tipuana trees planted in 7 regions of the city of Sao Paulo, SP was evaluated. On the sidewalks, 1109 trees were analyzed taking into consideration the occurrence and association of the xylophagous organisms (decay fungi and subterranean termites), the wood deterioration and the BHD (breast height diameter). The percentage of wood internal deterioration (%) was obtained by non destructive analysis, using a penetrometer. The results had shown that 75% of the tipuana trees presented BHD superior to 50 cm, characterizing them as adult. Decay fungi in the roots and/or trunk had been observed in 338 trees (30.5%). Subterranean termites of Heterotermes sp. and Coptotermes gestroi species had occurred in 307 trees (27.7%), the latter in high infestation level. The association between the fungi and termites was observed, as well as its relation with the BHD, where a greater value of BHD meant higher wood biodeterioration intensity. For tipuana trees, the BHD was considered an indicative attribute of the internal deterioration intensity, caused by these xylophagous organisms.

Effects of soybean proteinase inhibitors on development of the soil mite Scheloribates praeincisus (Acari : Oribatida)

Proteinase inhibitors (PI) are present in plant tissues, especially in seeds, and act as a defense mechanism against herbivores and pathogens. Serine PI from soybean such as Bowman-Birk (BBPI) and Kunitz have been used to enhance resistance of sugarcane varieties to the sugarcane borer Diatraea saccharalis (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), the major pest of this crop. The use of these genetically-modified plants (GM) expressing PI requires knowledge of its sustainability and environmental safety, determining the stability of the introduced characteristic and its effects on non-target organisms. The objective of this study was to evaluate direct effects of ingestion of semi-purified and purified soybean PI and GM sugarcane plants on the soil-dwelling mite Scheloribates praeincisus (Berlese) (Acari: Oribatida). This mite is abundant in agricultural soils and participates in the process of organic matter decomposition; for this reason it will be exposed to PI by feeding on GM plant debris. Eggs of S. praeincisus were isolated and after larvae emerged, immatures were fed milled sugarcane leaves added to semi-purified or purified PI (Kunitz and BBPI) or immatures were fed GM sugarcane varieties expressing Kunitz and BBPI type PI or the untransformed near isogenic parental line variety as a control. Developmental time (larva-adult) and survival of S. praeincisus was evaluated. Neither Kunitz nor BBPI affected S. praeincisus survival. On the other hand, ingestion of semi-purified and purified Kunitz inhibitor diminished duration of S. praeincisus immature stages. Ingestion of GM senescent leaves did not have an effect on S. praeincisus immature developmental time and survival, compared to ingestion of leaves from the isogenic parental plants. These results indicate that cultivation of these transgenic sugarcane plants is safe for the non-target species S. praeincisus.

The potential for increasing rubber production by matching tapping intensity to leaf area index

Understanding resource capture can help design appropriate species combinations, planting designs and management. Leaf area index (LAI) and its longevity are the most important factors defining dry matter production and thus growth and productivity. The ecophysiological modifications and yield of rubber (Hevea spp.) in an agroforestry system (AFS) with beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) were studied. The experiment was established in Southeast-Brazil, with three rubber cultivars: IAN 3087, RRIM 600 and RRIM 527. The AFS comprised double rows of rubber trees along with beans sown in autumn and winter seasons in 1999. There was about 50% higher rubber yield per tree in the AFS than the rubber monoculture. Trees within the AFS responded to higher solar radiation availability with higher LAI and total foliage area, allowing its greater interception. All three cultivars had higher LAI in the AFS than monoculture, reaching maximum values in the AFS between April and May of 3.17 for RRIM 527; 2.83 for RRIM 600 and 2.28 for IAN 3087. The maximum LAI values for monocrop rubber trees were: 2.65, 2.62 and 1.99, respectively, for each cultivar. Rubber production and LAI were positively correlated in both the AFS and monoculture but leaf fall of rubber trees in the AFS was delayed and total phytomass was larger. It is suggested that trees in the AFS were under exploited and could yield more without compromising their life cycle if the tapping system was intensified. This shows how knowledge of LAI can be used to manage tapping intensity in the field, leading to higher rubber yield.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

Podzolization as a deferralitization process: dynamics and chemistry of ground and surface waters in an Acrisol-Podzol sequence of the upper Amazon Basin

Hydrochemical processes involved in the development of hydromorphic Podzols are a major concern for the upper Amazon Basin because of the extent of the areas affected by such processes and the large amounts of organic carbon and associated metals exported to the rivers. The dynamics and chemical composition of ground and surface waters were studied along an Acrisol-Podzol sequence lying in an open depression of a plateau. Water levels were monitored along the sequence over a period of 2 years by means of piezometers. Water was sampled in zero-tension lysimeters for groundwater and for surface water in the drainage network of the depression. The pH and concentrations of organic carbon and major elements (Si, Fe and Al) were determined. The contrasted changes reported for concentrations of Si, organic carbon and metals (Fe, Al) mainly reflect the dynamics of the groundwater and the weathering conditions that prevail in the soils. Iron is released by the reductive dissolution of Fe oxides, mostly in the Bg horizons of the upslope Acrisols. It moves laterally under the control of hydraulic gradients and migrates through the iron-depleted Podzols where it is exported to the river network. Aluminium is released from the dissolution of Al-bearing minerals (gibbsite and kaolinite) at the margin of the podzolic area but is immobilized as organo-Al complexes in spodic horizons. In downslope positions, the quick recharge of the groundwater and large release of organic compounds lead to acidification and a loss of metals (mainly Al), previously stored in the Podzols.

Body weight as an indicator of fat-free mass in active elderly women

Objective: Fat-free mass (FFM) reduction and the tendency for a reduction in surrounding fatty issue and increase in the middle are a natural consequence of growing old and should be studied in order to gain a better understanding of the aging process. This study set out to find the FFM differences between active elderly women in two age groups (60-69 and 70-80 years) and to determine which of the anthropometric measurements, body weight (BW), abdominal circumference (AC), or body mass index (BMI) are the best predictors of FFM variation within the group. Methods: Eighty-one (n = 81) active elderly women of the Third Age willingly signed up to participate in the research during the activities at the University of the Third Age (UTA) in Brazil. The research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Body weight (BW), height (H) and the BMI were measured according to the international standards. The AC was measured in centimetres at the H of the navel and body composition was ascertained using bioimpedance analysis. The SAS program was used to perform the statistical analysis of independent samples and parametric data. Results: The results showed FFM values with significant differences between the two groups, with the lowest values occurring among the women who were over 70 years of age. In the analysis, the Pearson`s Correlation Coefficient for each measured independent variable was ascertained, with the BW measurement showing the highest ratio (0.900). Conclusions: The BW measurement was regarded as reliable, low-cost and easy to use for monitoring FFM in elderly women who engage in physical activities. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leaf area index estimation with MODIS reflectance time series and model inversion during full rotations of Eucalyptus plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations is highly dynamic both seasonally and interannually, and is spatially variable depending on pedo-climatic conditions. LAI is very important in determining the carbon and water balance of a stand, but is difficult to measure during a complete stand rotation and at large scales. Remote-sensing methods allowing the retrieval of LAI time series with accuracy and precision are therefore necessary. Here, we tested two methods for LAI estimation from MODIS 250m resolution red and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance time series. The first method involved the inversion of a coupled model of leaf reflectance and transmittance (PROSPECT4), soil reflectance (SOILSPECT) and canopy radiative transfer (4SAIL2). Model parameters other than the LAI were either fixed to measured constant values, or allowed to vary seasonally and/or with stand age according to trends observed in field measurements. The LAI was assumed to vary throughout the rotation following a series of alternately increasing and decreasing sigmoid curves. The parameters of each sigmoid curve that allowed the best fit of simulated canopy reflectance to MODIS red and NIR reflectance data were obtained by minimization techniques. The second method was based on a linear relationship between the LAI and values of the GEneralized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (GESAVI), which was calibrated using destructive LAI measurements made at two seasons, on Eucalyptus stands of different ages and productivity levels. The ability of each approach to reproduce field-measured LAI values was assessed, and uncertainty on results and parameter sensitivities were examined. Both methods offered a good fit between measured and estimated LAI (R(2) = 0.80 and R(2) = 0.62 for model inversion and GESAVI-based methods, respectively), but the GESAVI-based method overestimated the LAI at young ages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumer purchase habits and views on food safety: A Brazilian study

This study aimed to evaluate the attitudes towards food safety among consumers in the city of So Paulo, the major consumer market in Brazil. Focus group sessions were conducted with 30 adults responsible for food choices and purchases. Results indicated a preference for supermarkets over street markets, for the variety of foods, convenience and confidence in the safety assurance. On the other hand, the ""naturalness"" of the products in the street markets was the main reason for purchases in those places. Participants showed concerns with respect to food additives, hormones and pesticides - technological rather than ""natural"" hazards. Minimally processed and ready-to-eat foods were considered convenient products meeting the need for time/labor-savings in the kitchen, although suspicion about wholesomeness and safety came up among consumers. Lack of awareness regarding potentially risky behaviors was observed, including handling and storage of foods in the domestic environment. In conclusion, this study suggests that Brazilian regulators should create more effective risk communication combining technical information with actual consumer perceptions of food risks. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EFFECT OF n-3 POLYUNSATURATED FATTY ACIDS ON OXIDATIVE STRESS IN RATS SUPPLEMENTED WITH DIFFERENT DOSES OF FISH OIL

The diet and plasma lipid patterns associated with lipid oxidation susceptibility in rats fed different doses of polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) from fish oil were evaluated. Wistar rats were assigned into three groups and received diets containing 8% soybean oil (SOY), 4% soybean oil + 4% fish oil (SOY-FISH) and 8% fish oil (FISH) for 21 days. Linoleic, oleic and alpha-linolenic acids in SOY diets were substituted by myristic, palmitic, palmitoleic, eicosapentaenoic (EPA) and docosahexaenoic (DHA) acids in SOY-FISH and FISH diets reducing the n-6/n-3 ratio and increasing the peroxidability index (PI). Increased dietary EPA and DHA were observed in SOY-FISH and FISH plasma at the expense of linoleic and arachidonic acid levels. Saturated fatty acids, which were significantly different between the three diets (P < 0.01), were found at the same concentration in the plasma (P = 0.23). No changes were observed in oxidative stress as measured by the concentration of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) expressed in brain homogenates. However, TBARS concentration in the plasma of the SOY-FISH group was higher than the other two groups (P = 0.02). The major differences between these three groups were the n-3 PUFA content (0.4, 1.8 and 3.2 g/100 g diet) and the saturates/polyunsaturates ratio (0.3, 0.5 and 0.8) for SOY, SOY-FISH, and FISH groups, respectively. Thus, n-3 PUFA intake from fish oil only when followed by a decrease in saturated/polyunsaturated fatty acids ratio increased oxidative susceptibility in rats measured by plasma TBARS concentration. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS Because fish oil intake is associated with risk reduction for cardiovascular disease, individuals are taking supplements containing a high dose of fish oil. However, there is no scientific consensus if the intake of a high dose of fish oil could increase the oxidative stress. Thus, more studies are necessary to assure the safety of this kind of supplementation.

Brazilian consumer views on food irradiation

This study investigated the consumer attitude to food irradiation in Sao Paulo, Brazil, through a qualitative research perspective. Three focus groups were conducted with 30 consumers, responsible for food choices and purchases. Both irradiated and nonirradiated food samples were served in the sessions to motivate the discussion and elicit the participants knowledge, opinions, feelings and concerns towards the irradiation process. Reactions were similar among the groups and differences between the irradiated and the nonirradiated samples were hardly perceived. When provided with positive information about irradiation and its benefits to foods and human health, many people still remained suspicious about the safety of the technology. Risk perception seemed to be related to unease and lack of knowledge about nuclear power and its non-defense use. Participants claimed for more transparency in communication about risks and benefits of irradiated foods to the human health, especially with respect to the continued consumption. Industrial relevance: Irradiation is an emerging food processing technology, which has been gaining interest by food technologists, producers and manufacturers all over the world in the last decades. Irradiation is suitable for disinfestation, microorganism load reduction or sterilization, assuring the safety, as well as having benefits in the shelf-life of foodstuffs. Food irradiation is approved in many countries and its use in food processing is endorsed by several reputed authorities, such as FAD and USDA. Despite the approval and recommendation, this technology still remains underutilized not only in Brazil, but also in other countries. The main reason appears to be the consumer concerns and doubts about the use of radiations in food processing. To develop communication strategies in promotion of irradiated foods it is necessary to investigate consumer attitudes, knowledge. opinions, as well as fears, with respect to the use of radiation in food processing. It is well-known that consumer views on technology may vary from a culture to another. So, findings from consumer research in a country may certainly not reflect the consumer views in other countries. In this sense, Brazilian studies focused on consumer views on food irradiation are necessary to gain understanding on how the local market accepts the technology. Brazil is one of the most important food producers in the world and an emerging consumer market with a population of about 184 million people. Food irradiation is regulated in Brazil since 1973, but to date only a few food ingredients are subjected to irradiation. The wide use of irradiation in food processing would favor Brazilian producers in the quality and safety assurance of food products, both for the local market and for exports. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased MMA concentration and body mass index are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women A pilot study

Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.