833 resultados para Probabilistic methodology


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In this paper an efficient algorithm for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly-meshed distribution systems is presented. This algorithm uses the technique of Two-Point Estimate Method for calculating the probabilistic behavior of the system random variables. Additionally, the deterministic analysis of the state variables is performed by means of a Compensation-Based Radial Load Flow (CBRLF). Such load flow efficiently exploits the topological characteristics of the network. To deal with distributed generation, a strategy to incorporate a simplified model of a generator in the CBRLF is proposed. Thus, depending on the type of control and generator operation conditions, the node with distributed generation can be modeled either as a PV or PQ node. To validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the IEEE 37 bus test system is used. The probabilistic results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method.

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide information on lubricant contamination by biodiesel using vibration and neural network.Design/methodology/approach - The possible contamination of lubricants is verified by analyzing the vibration and neural network of a bench test under determinated conditions.Findings - Results have shown that classical signal analysis methods could not reveal any correlation between the signal and the presence of contamination, or contamination grade. on other hand, the use of probabilistic neural network (PNN) was very successful in the identification and classification of contamination and its grade.Research limitations/implications - This study was done for some specific kinds of biodiesel. Other types of biodiesel could be analyzed.Practical implications Contamination information is presented in the vibration signal, even if it is not evident by classical vibration analysis. In addition, the use of PNN gives a relatively simple and easy-to-use detection tool with good confidence. The training process is fast, and allows implementation of an adaptive training algorithm.Originality/value - This research could be extended to an internal combustion engine in order to verify a possible contamination by biodiesel.

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This thesis presents ⇡SOD-M (Policy-based Service Oriented Development Methodology), a methodology for modeling reliable service-based applications using policies. It proposes a model driven method with: (i) a set of meta-models for representing non-functional constraints associated to service-based applications, starting from an use case model until a service composition model; (ii) a platform providing guidelines for expressing the composition and the policies; (iii) model-to-model and model-to-text transformation rules for semi-automatizing the implementation of reliable service-based applications; and (iv) an environment that implements these meta-models and rules, and enables the application of ⇡SOD-M. This thesis also presents a classification and nomenclature for non-functional requirements for developing service-oriented applications. Our approach is intended to add value to the development of service-oriented applications that have quality requirements needs. This work uses concepts from the service-oriented development, non-functional requirements design and model-driven delevopment areas to propose a solution that minimizes the problem of reliable service modeling. Some examples are developed as proof of concepts

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Objectives To report methodology and overall clinical, laboratory and radiographic characteristics for Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP), childhood polyarteritis nodosa (c-PAN), c-Wegener granulomatosis (c-WG) and c-Takayasu arteritis (c-TA) classification criteria.Methods The preliminary Vienna 2005 consensus conference, which proposed preliminary criteria for paediatric vasculitides, was followed by a EULAR/PRINTO/PRES-supported validation project divided into three main steps. Step 1: retrospective/prospective web-data collection for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA, with age at diagnosis <= 18 years. Step 2: blinded classification by consensus panel of a subgroup of 280 cases (128 difficult cases, 152 randomly selected) enabling expert diagnostic verification. Step 3: Ankara 2008 Consensus Conference and statistical evaluation (sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, kappa-agreement) using as 'gold standard' the final consensus classification or original treating physician diagnosis.Results A total of 1183/1398 (85%) samples collected were available for analysis: 827 HSP, 150 c-PAN, 60 c-WG, 87 c-TA and 59 c-other. Prevalence, signs/symptoms, laboratory, biopsy and imaging reports were consistent with the clinical picture of the four c-vasculitides. A representative subgroup of 280 patients was blinded to the treating physician diagnosis and classified by a consensus panel, with kappa-agreement of 0.96 for HSP (95% CI 0.84 to 1), 0.88 for c-WG (95% CI 0.76 to 0.99), 0.84 for c-TA (95% CI 0.73 to 0.96) and 0.73 for c-PAN (95% CI 0.62 to 0.84), with an overall. of 0.79 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.84).Conclusion EULAR/PRINTO/PRES propose validated classification criteria for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA, with substantial/almost perfect agreement with the final consensus classification or original treating physician diagnosis.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Cyclodextrin glucanotransferase production from Bacillus clausii E16, a new bacteria isolated from Brazilian soil samples was optimized in shake-flask cultures. A 2 4 full-factorial central composite design was performed to optimize the culture conditions, using a response surface methodology the combined effect among the soluble starch concentration, the peptone concentration, the yeast extract concentration, and the initial pH value of the culture medium was investigated. The optimum concentrations of the components, determined by a 2(4) full-factorial central composite design, were 13.4 g/L soluble starch, 4.9 g/L peptone, 5.9 g/L yeast extract, and initial pH 10.1. Under these optimized conditions, the maximum cyclodextrin glucanotransferase activity was 5.9 U/mL after a 48-h fermentation. This yield was 68% higher than that obtained when the microorganism was cultivated in basal culture medium.

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The genus Paratrechina is a cosmopolitan group, with some species invading residences and hospitals. In Brazil, the most important species are: Paratrechina fulva and Paratrechina longicornis. In spite of the importance of these species as urban pests, there is a lack of information on their biology, since studies on urban ants are rather recent in our country and also due to the difficulty of keeping colonies of P. longicornis in the laboratory. Therefore, the present study was aimed at developing two methodologies: one suitable for collecting and another for keeping colonies of P. longicornis in the laboratory. Concerning the collections, four methodologies were analyzed, while for keeping colonies in the laboratory, the types of containers where the colonies would be stored as well as the food items that would comprise their diet were evaluated. The most adequate methodology for collecting was the one performed using an entomological aspirator. Regarding the maintenance of colonies, the most adequate container was the test tube with cotton steeped in water, while in the tests on food attractiveness, the workers showed preference for sugary liquids and dead insects, mainly termites. Moreover, two infestations of mites from the families Acaridae, Macrochelidae (genus Macrocheles) and Uropodidae in the colonies of P. longicornis have occurred, which caused a significant mortality of the colonies, due to an unbalance in the social behavior of the ants.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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In this work, a 3(3) factorial design was performed with the aim of optimizing the culture conditions for xylanase production by an alkalophilic thermophilic strain of Bacillus circulans, using response surface methodology. The variables involved in this study were xylan concentration (X-1), pH (X-2) and cultivation time (X-3). The optimal response region was approached without using paths of steepest ascent. Statistical analysis of results showed that, in the range studied, only pH did not have a significant effect on xylanase production. A second-order model was proposed to represent the enzymic activity as a function of xylan concentration (X-1) and cultivation time (X-3). The optimum xylan concentration and cultivation time were 5 g/l and 48 h, respectively. Under these conditions, the model predicted a xylanase activity of 19.1 U/ml. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The molar single ion activity coefficient (y(F)) of fluoride ions was determined at 25 degrees C and ionic strengths between 0.100 and 3.00 mol L(-1) NaClO(4) using an ion-selective electrode. The activity coefficient dependency on ionic strength was determined to be Phi(F) = log y(F) = 0.2315I-0.041I(2). The function Phi(F)(I), combined with functions obtained in previous work for copper (Phi(Cu)) and hydrogen (Phi(H)), allowed us to make the estimation of the stoichiometric and thermodynamic protonation constants of some halides and pseudo-halides as well as the formation constants of some pseudo-halides and fluoride 1:1 bivalent cation complexes. The calculation procedure proposed in this paper is consistent with critically-selected experimental data. It was demonstrated that it is possible to use Phi(F)(I) for predicting the thermodynamic equilibrium parameters independently of Pearson's hardness of acids and bases.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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A Sigatoka-negra (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) ameaça os bananais comerciais em todas as áreas produtoras do mundo e provoca danos quantitativos e qualitativos na produção, acarretando sérios prejuízos financeiros. Faz-se necessário o estudo da vulnerabilidade das plantas em diversos estádios de desenvolvimento e das condições climáticas favoráveis à ocorrência da doença. Objetivou-se com este trabalho desenvolver um modelo probabilístico baseado em funções polinomiais que represente o risco de ocorrência da Sigatokanegra em função da vulnerabilidade decorrente de fatores intrínsecos à planta e ao ambiente. Realizou-se um estudo de caso, em bananal comercial localizado em Jacupiranga, Vale do Ribeira, SP, considerando o monitoramento semanal do estado da evolução da doença, séries temporais de dados meteorológicos e dados de sensoriamento remoto. Foram gerados mapas georreferenciados do risco da Sigatoka-negra em diferentes épocas do ano. Um modelo para estimar a evolução da doença a partir de imagens de satélite foi obtido com coeficiente de determinação R² igual a 0,9. A metodologia foi desenvolvida para a detecção de épocas e locais que reúnem condições favoráveis à ocorrência da Sigatoka-negra e pode ser aplicada, com os devidos ajustes, em diferentes localidades, para avaliar o risco da ocorrência da doença em polos produtores de banana.

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This work describes the synthesis of a first-generation iron porphyrin catalyst entrapped in a silica matrix by the sol-gel route, leading to spherical particles. The catalyst was synthesized by the method of Stober, through hydrolysis and condensation of the alkoxysilane TEOS in a mixture of alcohol, water and ammonia, in the presence of the iron porphyrin Fe(TPP)Cl. The relation between particle morphology and catalytic activity of the different Fe(TPP)-SiO2, obtained using different H2O/silane molar ratios and ammonia concentrations in the xerogel syntheses, was studied.The obtained catalysts were characterized by UV-vis spectroscopy, NMR Si-29. thermogravimetric analysis and transmission electron microscopy. Their ability to catalyze (Z)-cyclooctene epoxidation and cyclohexane oxidation was tested using iodosylbenzene as oxygen donor; the oxidation products were analyzed by gas chromatography and the catalysts obtained in a form of particles spherical and monodispersed showed to be a promising catalytic system for selective oxidation. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Optimal conditions for the extraction of casearins from Casearia sylvestris were determined using response surface methodology. The maceration and sonication extraction techniques were performed using a 3 x 3 x 3 full factorial design including three acidity conditions, three solvents of different polarities and three extraction times. The yields and selectivities of the extraction of casearins were significantly influenced by acidity conditions. Taking into account all variables tested, the optimal conditions for maceration extraction were estimated to involve treatment with dichloromethane saturated with ammonium hydroxide for 26 h. Similar yields and selectivities for casearins were determined for sonication extraction using the same solvent but for the much shorter time of I h. The best results for stabilisation of the fresh plant material were obtained using leaves that had been oven dried at 40 degrees C for 48 h. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.