824 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model


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Advertising standardisation versus adaptation has been discussed in some detail in the marketing literature. Despite previous attempts, there is still no widely-used decision-making model available that has been accepted by marketing practitioners and academics. This paper examines the development of this important area by reviewing six prominent models in the advertising standardisation/adaptation literature. It shows why there has been a lack of development in the current literature and why it is crucial to address this problem. Important areas for future research are suggested in order to find a solution

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Despite the substantial organisational benefits of integrated IT, the implementation of such systems – and particularly Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems – has tended to be problematic, stimulating an extensive body of research into ERP implementation. This research has remained largely separate from the main IT implementation literature. At the same time, studies of IT implementation have generally adopted either a factor or process approach; both have major limitations. To address these imitations, factor and process perspectives are combined here in a unique model of IT implementation. We argue that • the organisational factors which determine successful implementation differ for integrated and traditional, discrete IT • failure to manage these differences is a major source of integrated IT failure. The factor/process model is used as a framework for proposing differences between discrete and integrated IT.

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Making a decision is often a matter of listing and comparing positive and negative arguments. In such cases, the evaluation scale for decisions should be considered bipolar, that is, negative and positive values should be explicitly distinguished. That is what is done, for example, in Cumulative Prospect Theory. However, contrary to the latter framework that presupposes genuine numerical assessments, human agents often decide on the basis of an ordinal ranking of the pros and the cons, and by focusing on the most salient arguments. In other terms, the decision process is qualitative as well as bipolar. In this article, based on a bipolar extension of possibility theory, we define and axiomatically characterize several decision rules tailored for the joint handling of positive and negative arguments in an ordinal setting. The simplest rules can be viewed as extensions of the maximin and maximax criteria to the bipolar case, and consequently suffer from poor decisive power. More decisive rules that refine the former are also proposed. These refinements agree both with principles of efficiency and with the spirit of order-of-magnitude reasoning, that prevails in qualitative decision theory. The most refined decision rule uses leximin rankings of the pros and the cons, and the ideas of counting arguments of equal strength and cancelling pros by cons. It is shown to come down to a special case of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and to subsume the “Take the Best” heuristic studied by cognitive psychologists.

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Understanding the response of humid mid-latitude forests to changes in precipitation, temperature, nutrient cycling, and disturbance is critical to improving our predictive understanding of changes in the surface-subsurface energy balance due to climate change. Mechanistic understanding of the effects of long-term and transient moisture conditions are needed to quantify
linkages between changing redox conditions, microbial activity, and soil mineral and nutrient interactions on C cycling and greenhouse gas releases. To illuminate relationships between the soil chemistry, microbial communities and organic C we established transects across hydraulic and topographic gradients in a small watershed with transient moisture conditions. Valley bottoms tend to be more frequently saturated than ridge tops and side slopes which generally are only saturated when shallow storm flow zones are active. Fifty shallow (~36”) soil cores were collected during timeframes representative of low CO2, soil winter conditions and high CO2, soil summer conditions. Cores were subdivided into 240 samples based on pedology and analyses of the geochemical (moisture content, metals, pH, Fe species, N, C, CEC, AEC) and microbial (16S rRNA gene
amplification with Illumina MiSeq sequencing) characteristics were conducted and correlated to watershed terrain and hydrology. To associate microbial metabolic activity with greenhouse gas emissions we installed 17 soil gas probes, collected gas samples for 16 months and analyzed them for CO2 and other fixed and greenhouse gasses. Parallel to the experimental efforts our data is being used to support hydrobiogeochemical process modeling by coupling the Community Land Model (CLM) with a subsurface process model (PFLOTRAN) to simulate processes and interactions from the molecular to watershed scales. Including above ground processes (biogeophysics, hydrology, and vegetation dynamics), CLM provides mechanistic water, energy, and organic matter inputs to the surface/subsurface models, in which coupled biogeochemical reaction
networks are used to improve the representation of below-ground processes. Preliminary results suggest that inclusion of above ground processes from CLM greatly improves the prediction of moisture response and water cycle at the watershed scale.

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Three issues usually are associated with threat prevention intelligent surveillance systems. First, the fusion and interpretation of large scale incomplete heterogeneous information; second, the demand of effectively predicting suspects’ intention and ranking the potential threats posed by each suspect; third, strategies of allocating limited security resources (e.g., the dispatch of security team) to prevent a suspect’s further actions towards critical assets. However, in the literature, these three issues are seldomly considered together in a sensor network based intelligent surveillance framework. To address
this problem, in this paper, we propose a multi-level decision support framework for in-time reaction in intelligent surveillance. More specifically, based on a multi-criteria event modeling framework, we design a method to predict the most plausible intention of a suspect. Following this, a decision support model is proposed to rank each suspect based on their threat severity and to determine resource allocation strategies. Finally, formal properties are discussed to justify our framework.

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BACKGROUND: Despite vaccines and improved medical intensive care, clinicians must continue to be vigilant of possible Meningococcal Disease in children. The objective was to establish if the procalcitonin test was a cost-effective adjunct for prodromal Meningococcal Disease in children presenting at emergency department with fever without source.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data to evaluate procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and white cell count tests as indicators of Meningococcal Disease were collected from six independent studies identified through a systematic literature search, applying PRISMA guidelines. The data included 881 children with fever without source in developed countries.The optimal cut-off value for the procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and white cell count tests, each as an indicator of Meningococcal Disease, was determined. Summary Receiver Operator Curve analysis determined the overall diagnostic performance of each test with 95% confidence intervals. A decision analytic model was designed to reflect realistic clinical pathways for a child presenting with fever without source by comparing two diagnostic strategies: standard testing using combined C-reactive protein and white cell count tests compared to standard testing plus procalcitonin test. The costs of each of the four diagnosis groups (true positive, false negative, true negative and false positive) were assessed from a National Health Service payer perspective. The procalcitonin test was more accurate (sensitivity=0.89, 95%CI=0.76-0.96; specificity=0.74, 95%CI=0.4-0.92) for early Meningococcal Disease compared to standard testing alone (sensitivity=0.47, 95%CI=0.32-0.62; specificity=0.8, 95% CI=0.64-0.9). Decision analytic model outcomes indicated that the incremental cost effectiveness ratio for the base case was £-8,137.25 (US $ -13,371.94) per correctly treated patient.

CONCLUSIONS: Procalcitonin plus standard recommended tests, improved the discriminatory ability for fatal Meningococcal Disease and was more cost-effective; it was also a superior biomarker in infants. Further research is recommended for point-of-care procalcitonin testing and Markov modelling to incorporate cost per QALY with a life-time model.

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Improving European education and training system quality has been set as a key target in Europe’s strategy to become a smart, sustainable and inclusive economy by 2020 (European Commission, 2010). These objectives are more specifically defined in the so called Modernisation Agenda (European Commission, 2011). More specifically it sets a goal to improve the quality and relevance of higher education. In this process external evaluation and
Proceedings of the 11th International CDIO Conference, Chengdu University of Information Technology,
Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China, June 8-11, 2015.
self-assessment are seen in a key role! In the CDIO approach the 12 CDIO standards provide a framework for continuous improvement. Each institution/institutional department are encouraged to regularly do the self-evaluation using the CDIO Standards. Eight European universities identified a need for further enhancement of the self-evaluations and creation of processes with peers to reduce the inertia of heavy accreditations/evaluations in HEIs. In September 2014 these universities started an Erasmus+ project (QAEMarketPlace4HEI) aiming at
1. Developing a collaborative, comprehensive and accessible evaluation process model, methods and tools for HEIs to complement the accreditation systems.
2. Promoting, increasing and exploiting further the European collaboration in the evaluation processes and the exchange of best practices.
3. Disseminating the model, best practices and widen the cooperation to new HEIs in Europe through the partner networks.

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DESIGN We will address our research objectives by searching the published and unpublished literature and conducting an evidence synthesis of i) studies of the effectiveness of psychosocial interventions provided for children and adolescents who have suffered maltreatment, ii) economic evaluations of these interventions and iii) studies of their acceptability to children, adolescents and their carers. SEARCH STRATEGY: Evidence will be identified via electronic databases for health and allied health literature, social sciences and social welfare, education and other evidence based depositories, and economic databases. We will identify material generated by user-led,voluntary sector enquiry by searching the internet and browsing the websites of relevant UK government departments and charities. Additionally, studies will be identified via the bibliographies of retrieved articles/reviews; targeted author searches; forward citation searching. We will also use our extensive professional networks, and our planned consultations with key stakeholders and our study steering committee. Databases will be searched from inception to time of search. REVIEW STRATEGY Inclusion criteria: 1) Infants, children or adolescents who have experienced maltreatment between the ages of 0 17 years. 2) All psychosocial interventions available for maltreated children and adolescents, by any provider and in any setting, aiming to address the sequelae of any form of maltreatment, including fabricated illness. 3) For synthesis of evidence of effectiveness: all controlled studies in which psychosocial interventions are compared with no-treatment, treatment as usual, waitlist or other-treated controls. For a synthesis of evidence of acceptability we will include any design that asks participants for their views or provides data on non-participation. For decision-analytic modelling we may include uncontrolled studies. Primary and secondary outcomes will be confirmed in consultation with stakeholders. Provisional primary outcomes are psychological distress/mental health (particularly PTSD, depression and anxiety, self-harm); ii) behaviour; iii) social functioning; iv) cognitive / academic attainment, v) quality of life, and vi) costs. After studies that meet the inclusion criteria have been identified (independently by two reviewers), data will be extracted and risk of bias (RoB) assessed (independently by two reviewers) using the Cochrane Collaboration RoB Tool (effectiveness), quality hierarchies of data sources for economic analyses (cost-effectiveness) and the CASP tool for qualitative research (acceptability). Where interventions are similar and appropriate data are available (or can be obtained) evidence synthesis will be performed to pool the results. Where possible, we will explore the extent to which age, maltreatment history (including whether intra- or extra-familial), time since maltreatment, care setting (family / out-of-home care including foster care/residential), care history, and characteristics of intervention (type, setting, provider, duration) moderate the effects of psychosocial interventions. A synthesis of acceptability data will be undertaken, using a narrative approach to synthesis. A decision-analytic model will be constructed to compare the expected cost-effectiveness of the different types of intervention identified in the systematic review. We will also conduct a Value of information analysis if the data permit. EXPECTED OUTPUTS: A synthesis of the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for maltreated children (taking into account age, maltreatment profile and setting) and their acceptability to key stakeholders.

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O presente estudo investigou a temática da escrita colaborativa a distância, no Ensino Superior, em Inglês Língua Estrangeira. A escrita foi estudada de uma perspectiva processual, valorizando, portanto, o caminho que os alunos percorrem até ao produto final. O ambiente colaborativo reforçou este processo, na medida em que proporcionou, aos alunos, um espaço de discussão e melhoramento das diversas versões do texto. Por outro lado, a componente de ensino a distância de blended learning contribuiu, também, para um processo mais interactivo, mais colaborativo e, ao mesmo tempo, mais distanciado, o que beneficiaria o desenvolvimento da competência de escrita dos alunos e, simultaneamente, dos próprios alunos enquanto indivíduos. A investigação procurou averiguar diversos aspectos relacionados com o tipo de ensino já referido: aspectos evolutivos do processo de escrita na colaboração a distância – nomeadamente, as alterações efectuadas aos textos e seu impacto –; estratégias postas em prática pelos participantes em trabalho de escrita colaborativa a distância em Inglês Língua Estrangeira (ILE); formas de colaboração presentes no trabalho e a influência do ensino a distância no trabalho de escrita colaborativa. Para atingir as metas enumeradas, foi seleccionada uma turma de Língua e Cultura Inglesa II, 2º ano, da licenciatura em Ensino de Português/Inglês, da Universidade de Aveiro, que levou a cabo as diversas tarefas de escrita processual colaborativa, tarefas essas determinadas e realizadas através do webCT da Universidade de Aveiro (com uma página adaptada especialmente para a turma em questão). Todo o trabalho realizado pelos alunos foi ali registado para posterior análise. Tornou-se claro, ao longo da análise dos dados, que o ambiente a distância criou várias dificuldades aos alunos, implicando a criação de estratégias para as resolver. Por outro lado, a colaboração dentro dos grupos revelou-se um evidente benefício quer em termos de tarefas, quer em termos do desenvolvimento, motivação e envolvimento pessoais dos alunos. Também a abordagem processual à escrita trouxe resultados díspares: um dos grupos escrevia habitualmente segundo este modelo, não notando diferenças significativas, enquanto que o outro grupo valorizou o processo como um benefício para a escrita, sobretudo pelas fases de revisão que incluía. Pretendeu-se, com a análise referida e sumariada, conseguir não só investigar a escrita colaborativa a distância mas, também, identificar estratégias válidas para o ensino desta competência, estratégias essas que possam ajudar ao desenvolvimento de um ensino de escrita com mais sucesso e melhores resultados, sobretudo do ponto de vista dos alunos. É urgente um aprofundamento desta área ainda pouco desenvolvida, uma vez que as práticas de escrita se afastam cada vez mais da realidade actual, uma realidade construída em conjunto, por indivíduos que trabalham em ambientes virtuais e reais, sendo, portanto, relevante integrar os alunos nestes contextos, para melhor os preparar para o mundo de hoje. ABSTRACT: The study presented here has investigated collaborative writing at a distance in English as a Foreign Language (EFL), with University students. Students were encouraged to write according to a process model, which valued the stages of writing rather than the final product resulting from it. The collaborative environment strengthened the process, in the sense that it gave students room for discussion and improvement of the different versions of the text. On the other hand, distance learning contributed to a more collaborative and interactive process and, at the same time, more distanced, which benefited the development of the students’ writing skills and of the students as individuals. The investigation aimed to study several aspects of collaborative writing at a distance: the evolution of the writing process in distance collaboration, strategies used by the participants when writing collaboratively at a distance, initial writing competences of the participants and eventual advantages of distance learning for the collaborative revision phase of the writing process. In order to accomplish the proposed goals, we selected a class from those in the second year taking English Language and Culture II, of the English/ Portuguese Teaching “Licenciatura” degree at the University of Aveiro, and a web page was created for them. This page registered all the work done by the students along the project, establishing the data for future analysis. From this class, two groups were selected as case studies, in order to carry out a deeper and more comprehensive study of the process. We intended not only to investigate collaborative writing at a distance but also to identify valid strategies for the teaching of writing. Such strategies might aid the development of a more successful teaching of this competence, with better and more lasting results in students. Further research in this poorly developed area is urgent, as the practices of writing get further apart from the current reality. Nowadays, it is becoming growingly common to work both in real and virtual environments. It is thus relevant to integrate students in both, in order to prepare them for today’s world – our mission as teachers and educators.

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Este relatório apresenta o estudo de duas linhas de montagem de câmaras de vigilância da empresa Bosch Security Systems, S.A. de Ovar. Numa primeira fase procedeu-se à elaboração das listas de tarefas e respectivas precedências, seguindo-se a medição de trabalho, com o intuito de se actualizarem os tempos padrão existentes. Procedeu-se à comparação dos tempos obtidos com os que se encontravam em vigor de modo a perceber as diferenças e motivos das mesmas. Numa segunda fase, realizaram-se balanceamentos para as duas linhas tendo como cenários a manutenção das duas linhas e a possibilidade da sua junção numa linha única. Analisaram-se todos os resultados e efectuou-se um levantamento do investimento necessário associado a cada um dos cenários. Realizou-se deste modo uma análise de viabilidade com vista ao apoio à decisão. Por fim, realizou-se o workshop Lean Line Design que teve como resultado a configuração física da linha final. Este projecto permitiu chegar a resultados aliciantes, com ganhos a vários níveis. Constituiu mais uma acção de melhoria da empresa, levando-a a rectificar lacunas existentes e ao cumprimento de procedimentos ergonómicos que já se encontravam definidos.

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The Tourism activity, due to its own characteristics, causes high environmental impact and its development should be influenced by the environmental characteristics of each region. The Information Systems, mainly those which represent the geographical information, will permit the development of a design, allowing the Decision-Maker the consult, the management and the presentation of decision schemes based on the defined measures of the Tourism Planning of a region. As the information associated with this design should be real and update, the Internet should be used as a means of access to the information of the region. The design presents the schemes associated to each decision, offering competitive advantages to the Decision-Makers involved in the decision process, since it is possible to evaluate, foresee and control the future environmental impacts of Tourism.

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Tese de doutoramento, Estatística e Investigação Operacional (Análise de Sistemas), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014

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Projeto de Intervenção apresentado à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para a obtenção de grau de Mestre em Didática da Língua Portuguesa no 1º e 2º CEB

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Especialização em Edificações

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A norfloxacina e o trimetoprim são dois antibióticos antibacterianos usados para o tratamento de infeções urinárias, intestinais e respiratórias. A maioria dos fármacos exige uma dosagem que garanta os níveis de segurança e eficácia de atuação. A necessidade de dosear os medicamentos e os seus metabolitos é assim um controlo imperioso e em muitos casos regular no tratamento de um paciente. Neste trabalho desenvolveram-se dois sensores eletroquímicos para a deteção da norfloxacina (NFX) e do trimetoprim (TMP), usando como superfície de suporte o carbono vítreo. A busca de novos materiais que conferiram maior seletividade e sensibilidade aos sistemas de deteção e por outro lado apresentem menores riscos para o paciente quando usados em dispositivos que permitam uma análise point-of-care, é especialmente importante e pode ser uma parte crucial do processo de decisão clínica. Assim, os polímeros molecularmente impresos enquadram-se nesse perfil e o seu uso tem vindo a ser cada vez mais avaliado. A impressão molecular é uma tecnologia capaz de produzir polímeros que incorporam as moléculas do analito e que após remoção por solventes específicos, permitem dotá-los de locais específicos de reconhecimento estereoquímico. A seleção do pirrol como polímero molecularmente impresso (MIP) permitiu construir com sucesso os sensores para doseamento dos antibióticos. A fim de aumentar a sensibilidade do método incorporou-se grafeno na superfície do elétrodo. Este material tem vindo a ser largamente utilizado devido às suas propriedades: estrutura molecular, condutividade elétrica e aumento da superfície são algumas das características que mais despertam o interesse para a sua aplicação neste projeto. Os sensores desenvolvidos foram incorporados em sistemas eletroquímicos. Os métodos voltamétricos aplicados foram a voltametria cíclica, a voltametria de onda quadrada e ainda a impedância. As condições de análise foram otimizadas no que respeita à polimerização do pirrol (concentração do polímero, número de ciclos de eletropolimerização e respetivos potenciais aplicados, tempo de incubação, solvente de remoção do analito), ao pH da solução do fármaco, à gama de concentrações dos antibióticos e aos parâmetros voltamétricos dos métodos de análise. Para cada um dos antibióticos um elétrodo não-impresso foi também preparado, usando o procedimento de polimerização mas sem a presença da molécula do analito, e foi usado como controlo. O sensor desenvolvido para o trimetoprim foi usado no doseamento do fármaco em amostras de urina. As amostras foram analisadas sem qualquer diluição, apenas foram centrifugadas para remoção de proteínas e algum interferente. Os sensores construídos apresentaram comportamento linear na gama de concentrações entre 102 e 107 mol/L. Os resultados mostram boa precisão (desvios padrão inferiores a 11%) e os limites de deteção foram de 8,317 e 1,307 mol/L para a norfloxacina e o trimetoprim, respetivamente. Para validação do método foram ainda efetuados ensaios de recuperação tendo obtido valores superiores a 94%.