853 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model


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Collaboration in the public sector is imperative to achieve e-government objectives such as improved efficiency and effectiveness of public administration and improved quality of public services. Collaboration across organizational and institutional boundaries requires public organizations to share e-government systems and services through for instance, interoperable information technology and processes. Demands on public organizations to become more open also require that public organizations adopt new collaborative approaches for inviting and engaging citizens in governmental activities. E-government related collaboration in the public sector is challenging, however, and collaboration initiatives often fail. Public organizations need to learn how to collaborate since forms of e-government collaboration and expected outcomes are mostly unknown. How public organizations can collaborate and the expected outcomes are thus investigated in this thesis by studying multiple collaboration cases on the acquisition and implementation of a particular e-government investment (digital archive). This thesis also investigates how e-government collaboration can be facilitated through artifacts. It is done through a case study, where objects that cross boundaries between collaborating communities in the public sector are studied, and by designing a configurable process model integrating several processes for social services. By using design science, this thesis also investigates how an m-government solution that facilitates collaboration between citizens and public organizations can be designed. The thesis contributes to literature through describing five different modes of interorganizational collaboration in the public sector and the expected benefits from each mode. It also contributes with an instantiation of a configurable process model supporting three open social e-services and with evidence of how it can facilitate collaboration. This thesis further describes how boundary objects facilitate collaboration between different communities in an open government design initiative. It contributes with a designed mobile government solution, thereby providing proof of concept and initial design implications for enabling collaboration with citizens through citizen sourcing (outsourcing a governmental activity to citizens through an open call). This thesis also identifies research streams within e-government collaboration research through a literature review and the thesis contributions are related to the identified research streams. This thesis gives directions for future research by suggesting that future research should focus further on understanding e-government collaboration and how information and communication technology can facilitate collaboration in the public sector. It is suggested that further research should investigate m-government solutions to form design theories. Future research should also examine how value can be co-created in e-government collaboration.

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This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source

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Continuous delivery (CD) is a software engineering approach where the focus lays on creating a short delivery cycle by automating parts of the deployment pipeline which includes build, deploy-, test and release process. CD is based on that during development should be possible to always automatically generate a release based on the source code in its current state. One of CD's many advantages is that through continuous releases it allows you to get a quick feedback loop leading to faster and more efficient implementation of new functions, at the same time fixing errors. Although CD has many advantages, there are also several challenges a maintenance management project must manage in the transition to CD. These challenges may differ depending on the maturity level for a maintenance management project and what strengths and weaknesses the project has. Our research question was: "What challenges can a maintenance management project face in transition to Continuous delivery?" The purpose of this study is to describe Continuous delivery and the challenges a maintenance management project may face during a transition to Continuous delivery. A descriptive case study has been carried out with the data collection methods of interviews and documents. A situation analysis was created based on the collected data in a shape of a process model that represent the maintenance management projects release process. The processmodel was used as the basis of SWOT analysis and analysis by Rehn et al's Maturity Model. From these analyzes we found challenges of a maintenance management project may face in the transition to CD. The challenges are about customers and the management's attitude towards a transition to CD. But the biggest challenge is about automation of the deployment pipeline steps.

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This work supported drafting project management guidance for the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT). The goal is to incorporate a greater focus on project management in their project development process. A technical advisory committee (TAC) was assembled to accomplish this effort. The TAC took into consideration the current status of project management with the Iowa DOT, their experience during the demonstration workshop held in Iowa as part of the implementation assistance they received, the project management peer exchange hosted by the Iowa DOT, and additional examples of project management that were presented. With this basis, the TAC participated in a number of discussions to develop draft guidance for the foundation of a Project Management Office (PMO) within the Iowa DOT. The final report describes the process that was used in establishing this guidance. The report details the decisions and decision process that the TAC employed in this endeavor and provides additional thoughts and insight into the draft guidance. Appendix A includes the draft guidance in the form of PMO function details and detailed lists of project management roles and responsibilities. Appendix B includes a starter list of project management resources for the PMO.

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The challenge of detecting a change in the distribution of data is a sequential decision problem that is relevant to many engineering solutions, including quality control and machine and process monitoring. This dissertation develops techniques for exact solution of change-detection problems with discrete time and discrete observations. Change-detection problems are classified as Bayes or minimax based on the availability of information on the change-time distribution. A Bayes optimal solution uses prior information about the distribution of the change time to minimize the expected cost, whereas a minimax optimal solution minimizes the cost under the worst-case change-time distribution. Both types of problems are addressed. The most important result of the dissertation is the development of a polynomial-time algorithm for the solution of important classes of Markov Bayes change-detection problems. Existing techniques for epsilon-exact solution of partially observable Markov decision processes have complexity exponential in the number of observation symbols. A new algorithm, called constellation induction, exploits the concavity and Lipschitz continuity of the value function, and has complexity polynomial in the number of observation symbols. It is shown that change-detection problems with a geometric change-time distribution and identically- and independently-distributed observations before and after the change are solvable in polynomial time. Also, change-detection problems on hidden Markov models with a fixed number of recurrent states are solvable in polynomial time. A detailed implementation and analysis of the constellation-induction algorithm are provided. Exact solution methods are also established for several types of minimax change-detection problems. Finite-horizon problems with arbitrary observation distributions are modeled as extensive-form games and solved using linear programs. Infinite-horizon problems with linear penalty for detection delay and identically- and independently-distributed observations can be solved in polynomial time via epsilon-optimal parameterization of a cumulative-sum procedure. Finally, the properties of policies for change-detection problems are described and analyzed. Simple classes of formal languages are shown to be sufficient for epsilon-exact solution of change-detection problems, and methods for finding minimally sized policy representations are described.

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Supply chains have become an important focus for competitive advantage. The performance of a company increasingly depends on its ability to maintain effective and efficient relationships with its suppliers and customers. The extended enterprise (i.e. composed of several partners) needs to be dynamically formed in order to be agile and adaptable. According to the Digital Manufacturing paradigm, companies have to be able to quickly share and disseminate information regarding planning, designing and manufacturing of products. Additionally, they must be responsive to all technical and business determinants, as well as be assessed and certified for guaranteed performance. The current research intends to present a solution for the dynamic composition of the extended enterprise, formed to take advantage of market opportunities quickly and efficiently. A construction model was developed. This construction model consists of: information model, protocol model and process model. The information model has been defined based on the concepts of Supply Chain Operations Reference model (SCOR®). In this model is defined information for negotiating the participation of candidate companies in the dynamic establishment of a network for responding to a given demand for developing and manufacturing products, in seven steps as follows: request for information; request for qualification; alignment of strategy; request for proposal; request for quotation; compatibility of process; and compatibility of system. The protocol model has been elaborated and inspired in the OSI, this model provides a framework for linking customers and suppliers, indicates a sequence to be followed, in order to selecte companies to become suppliers. The process model has been implemented by means of process modeling according to the BPMN standard and, in turn, implemented as a web-based application that runs the process through its several steps, which uses forms to gather data. An application example in the context of the oil and gas industry is used for demonstrating the solution concept.

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The aim of this study was to model the process of development for an Online Learning Resource (OLR) by Health Care Professionals (HCPs) to meet lymphoedema-related educational needs, within an asset-based management context. Previous research has shown that HCPs have unmet educational needs in relation to lymphoedema but details on their specific nature or context were lacking. Against this background, the study was conducted in two distinct but complementary phases. In Phase 1, a national survey was conducted of HCPs predominantly in community, oncology and palliative care services, followed by focus group discussions with a sample of respondents. In Phase 2, lymphoedema specialists (LSs) used an action research approach to design and implement an OLR to meet the needs identified in Phase 1. Study findings were analysed using descriptive statistics (Phase 1), and framework, thematic and dialectic analysis to explore their potential to inform future service development and education theory. Unmet educational need was found to be specific to health care setting and professional group. These resulted in HCPs feeling poorly-equipped to diagnose and manage lymphoedema. Of concern, when identified, lymphoedema was sometimes buried for fear of overwhelming stretched services. An OLR was identified as a means of addressing the unmet educational needs. This was successfully developed and implemented with minimal additional resources. The process model created has the potential to inform contemporary leadership theory in asset-based management contexts. This doctoral research makes a timely contribution to leadership theory since the resource constraints underpinning much of the contribution has salience to current public services. The process model created has the potential to inform contemporary leadership theory in asset-based management contexts. Further study of a leadership style which incorporates cognisance of Cognitive Load Theory and Self-Determination Theory is suggested. In addition, the detailed reporting of process and how this facilitated learning for participants contributes to workplace education theory

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O presente projeto de Mestrado assenta no estudo dos principais fatores motivacionais na compra de livros de ficção, aprofundando a dicotomia uso próprio versus oferta, englobando duas perspetivas complementares: a sustentação bibliográfica e uma pesquisa quantitativa que foi concretizada através da distribuição de um inquérito por questionário, em formato digital, que permitiu obter 487 respostas válidas e completas. Os dados obtidos foram tratados no SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences), utilizando análises descritivas, que foram complementadas com técnicas de inferência estatística. Os resultados permitiram concluir que, apesar de homens e mulheres oferecerem um número idêntico de livros, as mulheres compram e leem mais. Além disso, cerca de um terço dos livros comprados destina-se a oferta. Ficou ainda provado que a interação com os autores nas redes sociais apresenta uma associação positiva com a importância atribuida a esse fator na hora de comprar o(s) livro(s). As mulheres são mais sensíveis às “Políticas de Marketing” (Atendimento Personalizado; Facilidade de Pagamento; Local com Cartão de Fidelização; Preços e Descontos; Elevada quantidade de livros), enquanto critérios de seleção do local de compra. Importa referir que a compra é concretizada de forma menos impulsiva quando o livro é para oferta. Os atributos da capa mais relevantes no processo de decisão de compra são o “Título” e a “Sinopse”. Contudo, os diferentes fatores da capa estudados não apresentam diferenças significativas na compra para uso próprio comparativamente à oferta, no que respeita à sua importância. “Autores com prémios literários” e “Nobel” e “Ser uma novidade” (livro) são outros fatores (não da capa) que apresentam diferenças significativas favoráveis à compra para oferta. Por outro lado, “Recomendação de Amigos e Familiares” e “Presença/Ligação/Interação com o Autor nas redes sociais” são mais favoráveis à compra para uso próprio. As conclusões são relevantes para enquadrar as preferências dos consumidores, possibilitando aos profissionais do marketing algumas referências para definir estratégias que respondam às suas necessidades e ambições. Além disso, ao explorar a dimensão dos submercados (Uso próprio versus Oferta), será possível ir ao encontro das exigências dos compradores, tornando a subjetividade da aquisição/utilização numa ferramenta eficaz da própria idealização e personalização dos livros, permitindo conceber e implementar ideias empreendedoras que visem estimular a compra e, consequentemente, melhorar os hábitos de leitura de todos os portugueses.

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The Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Basin is isolated from the atmosphere by the overlaying surface layer, yet observations have revealed that the velocities in this layer exhibit significant variations. Here analysis of a global ocean/sea ice model hindcast, complemented by experiments performed with an idealized process model, is used to investigate what controls the variability of AW circulation, with a focus on the role of wind forcing. The AW circulation carries the imprint of wind variations, both remotely over the Nordic and Barents Seas where they force the AW inflow variability, and locally over the Arctic Basin through the forcing of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre, which modulates and transfers the wind variability to the AW layer. The strong interplay between the circulation within the surface and AW layers suggests that both layers must be considered to understand variability in either.

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The incredible rapid development to huge volumes of air travel, mainly because of jet airliners that appeared to the sky in the 1950s, created the need for systematic research for aviation safety and collecting data about air traffic. The structured data can be analysed easily using queries from databases and running theseresults through graphic tools. However, in analysing narratives that often give more accurate information about the case, mining tools are needed. The analysis of textual data with computers has not been possible until data mining tools have been developed. Their use, at least among aviation, is still at a moderate level. The research aims at discovering lethal trends in the flight safety reports. The narratives of 1,200 flight safety reports from years 1994 – 1996 in Finnish were processed with three text mining tools. One of them was totally language independent, the other had a specific configuration for Finnish and the third originally created for English, but encouraging results had been achieved with Spanish and that is why a Finnish test was undertaken, too. The global rate of accidents is stabilising and the situation can now be regarded as satisfactory, but because of the growth in air traffic, the absolute number of fatal accidents per year might increase, if the flight safety will not be improved. The collection of data and reporting systems have reached their top level. The focal point in increasing the flight safety is analysis. The air traffic has generally been forecasted to grow 5 – 6 per cent annually over the next two decades. During this period, the global air travel will probably double also with relatively conservative expectations of economic growth. This development makes the airline management confront growing pressure due to increasing competition, signify cant rise in fuel prices and the need to reduce the incident rate due to expected growth in air traffic volumes. All this emphasises the urgent need for new tools and methods. All systems provided encouraging results, as well as proved challenges still to be won. Flight safety can be improved through the development and utilisation of sophisticated analysis tools and methods, like data mining, using its results supporting the decision process of the executives.

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This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source

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Em plena quarta revolução industrial, todas as industrias se estão a transformar para se ajustar aos novos paradigmas de relação com os clientes, altamente influenciados pelos pioneiros digitais como a Uber, Netflix ou Amazon, porém no setor financeiro há desafios acrescidos, pois os clientes esperam juntar essas expectativas digitais com a manutenção da iteração humana, enquanto, do lados bancos, em simultâneo, necessitam de recuperar da crise da dívida soberana que impôs necessidades de ajustamento dos balanços. O momento de desenvolvimento tecnológico potenciado pelo forte crescimento do acesso à internet em mobilidade traz novos hábitos e expectativas na relação com as entidades, com dispositivos cada vez mais potentes a cada vez menor custo, o que criou a oportunidade perfeita para o surgimento de startups tecnológicas dispostas a transformar os modelos de negócio de intermediação clássica, dando origem, no setor financeiro, às fintechs – empresas de base tecnológica dedicadas à prestação de serviços financeiros - impondo uma disrupção na industria financeira, com destaque para mercados como os EUA e Reino Unido. Olhando aos últimos cinco anos do setor financeiro, será muito difícil antecipar como estará o setor financeiro dentro de cinco anos, mas sabemos que estará seguramente muito diferente do que conhecemos hoje, por esse fato este trabalho é assente essencialmente em referências bibliográficas dos últimos 5 anos, tendo sido feito utilizados estudos de investigação de empresas e documentos académicos para a caracterização do setor neste contexto de inovação permanente e em que medida este processo de “digitalização” do setor financeiro influencia a propensão dos clientes na contratação de mais produtos e serviços, sendo esse um fator central para os bancos em Portugal recuperarem economicamente. É também analisada a dimensão seguida pelas instituições de regulação e supervisão do setor financeiro com vista a potenciar a concorrência e inovação do setor financeiro, enquanto mantém a garantia de segurança, confiança e controlo de risco sistémico. É bastante escassa a literatura disponível para caracterizar a banca em Portugal numa ótica de inovação e transformação, porém este trabalho procura caracterizar o sistema financeiro português face à forma como está a responder aos desafios de transformação tecnológica e digital. Procurou-se estabelecer uma metodologia de investigação que permita caracterizar a perceção de valor acrescentado para os clientes da utilização de serviços digitais e em que medida estes se podem substituir aos balcões e à intervenção humana dos profissionais dos bancos, tendo-se concluído que estes dois elementos são ainda fatores centrais para os clientes.

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Part 7: Cyber-Physical Systems

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Parenting is a robust predictor of developmental outcomes among children with ADHD. Early parenting predicts the persistence and course of ADHD and comorbid problems above and beyond risk associated with shared genetic effects. Yet, on average, mothers of children with ADHD are less positive and more negative in their parent-child interactions compared to mothers of non-disordered children. Little is known about psychobiological markers which may be associated with individual variations in maternal parenting in families of children with ADHD. Neurobiological models of parenting suggest that maternal cortisol levels following a stressor may be positively associated with hostile and intrusive parenting; however, to date no studies have examined maternal cortisol reactivity and parenting in school-age, or clinical samples of, children. Mothers’ regulation of physiological stress responses may be particularly important for families of children with ADHD, as parenting a child with chronically challenging behaviors represents a persistent environmental stressor. The current study sought to extend the existing literature by providing an empirical examination of the relationship between maternal cortisol reactivity following two laboratory stressors and parenting among mothers of children with and without ADHD. It was hypothesized that child ADHD group would moderate the relationship between cortisol reactivity and self-reported and observed parenting. Greater total cortisol output and greater increase in cortisol during the TSST were associated with decreased positive parenting and increased negative and directive parenting, with the exception of parental involvement, which was associated with increased cortisol output during the TSST. Conversely, cortisol output during the PCI was associated with increased positive parenting, increased parental involvement, and decreased negative parenting. In contrast to the TSST, a greater decrease in cortisol during the PCI indicated more positive parenting and parental involvement. These associations were specific to mothers of children with ADHD, with the exception of maternal directiveness, which was specific to comparison mothers. Findings add to our understanding of physiological processes associated with maternal parenting and contribute to an integrative biological, psychological, and cognitive process model of parenting in families of children with ADHD.

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Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão Empresarial, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015