924 resultados para Prior Probability
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By 1900 the Jewish community of Tunisia witnessed the emergence of new competing identities: “assimilationist” of the Alliance Israelite Universelle, termed “Alliancist,” and Zionist. Strikingly, two members of the same family in Tunis, Raymond Valensi, President of the AIU Regional Committee, and Alfred Valensi, President of the Zionist Federation, led the struggle for their separate causes. In his discussion of identity in the modern world, Homi Bhabha asks, "How do strategies of representation or empowerment come to be formulated in the competing claims of communities…where, despite shared histories of …discrimination, the exchange of values, meanings and priorities…may be profoundly antagonistic…?" It is in this context that the claims of the Alliance and Zionism will be examined prior to World War I, based on the Archives of the AIU and on such secondary sources as the indispensable work of Paul Sebag. The tensions between the Alliancists and Zionists continued until the outbreak of World War II, as the French-speaking Jews of Tunisia sought to define their individual and collective identities.
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studio Thomae Willis
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Background. The association between a prior history of atopy or other autoimmune diseases and risk of alopecia areata is not well established. ^ Objective. Purpose of this study was to use the National Alopecia Areata Registry database to further investigate the association between history of atopy or other autoimmune diseases and risk of alopecia areata. ^ Methods. A total of 2,613 self-registered sporadic cases (n = 2,055) and controls (n = 558) were included in the present analysis. ^ Results. Possessing a history of any atopy (OR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.50-2.54) or autoimmune disease (OR = 1.73; 95% CI 1.10-2.72) was associated with an increased risk of alopecia areata. There was no trend for possessing a history of more than one atopy or autoimmune disease and increasing risk of alopecia areata. ^ Limitations. Recall, reporting, and recruiting bias are potential sources of limitations in this analysis. ^ Conclusion. This analysis revealed that a prior history of atopy and autoimmune disease was associated with an increased risk of alopecia areata and that the results were consistent for both the severe subtype of alopecia areata (i.e., alopecia totalis and alopecia universalis) and the localized subtype (i.e., alopecia areata persistent).^
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Objective. To conduct a systematic review of published literature on preconception care in pre-existing diabetic women looking at the effect of glycemic control and multivitamin usage on the frequency of spontaneous abortion and birth defects.^ Methods. Articles were retrieved from Medline (1950–Dec 2007), Cochrane Library (1800–Dec 2007), Academic Search Complete (Ebsco) (Jan 1800–Dec 2007) and Maternal and Child Health Library (1965–Dec 2007). Studies included women with pre-existing, non-gestational diabetes and a comparison group. Participants must have either received preconception care and/or consumed a multivitamin as part of the study.^ Results. Overall, seven studies met the study criteria and applicability to the study objectives. Four of these reported the frequency of spontaneous abortion. Only one found a statistically significant increased risk of spontaneous abortion among pregnant women who did not receive preconception care compared with those who did receive care, odds ratio 4.32; 95% CI 1.34 to 13.9. Of the seven studies, six reported the frequency of birth defects. Five of these six studies found a significantly increased rate of birth defects among pregnant women who did not receive preconception care compared with those who did receive care, with odds ratios ranging from 1.53 to 10.16. All seven studies based their preconception care intervention on glycemic control. One study also used multivitamins as part of the preconception care.^ Conclusion. Glycemic control was shown to be useful in reducing the prevalence of birth defects, but not as useful in reducing the prevalence of spontaneous abortion. Insulin regimen options vary widely for the diabetic woman. No author excluded or controlled for women who may have been taking a multivitamin on their own. Due to the small amount of literature available, it is still not known which preconception care option, glucose control and/or multivitamin usage, provides better protection from birth defects and spontaneous abortion for the diabetic woman. An area for future investigation would be glycemic control and the use of folic acid started before pregnancy and the effects on birth defects and spontaneous abortion.^
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Objectives. To examine the association between prior rifamycin exposure and later development of C. difficile infection (CDI) caused by a rifamycin-resistant strain of C. difficile , and to compare patient characteristics between rifamycin-resistant strains of C. difficile infection and rifamycin-susceptible strains of C. difficile infection. ^ Methods. A case-control study was performed in a large university-affiliated hospital in Houston, Texas. Study subjects were patients with C. difficile infection acquired at the hospital with culture-positive isolates of C. difficile with which in vitro rifaximin and rifampin susceptibility has been tested. Prior use of rifamycin, demographic and clinical characteristics was compared between case and control groups using univariate statistics. ^ Results. A total of 49 C. difficile strains met the study inclusion criteria for rifamycin-resistant case isolates, and a total of 98 rifamycin-susceptible C. difficile strains were matched to case isolates. Of 49 case isolates, 12 (4%) were resistant to rifampin alone, 12 (4%) were resistant to rifaximin alone, and 25 (9%) were resistant to both rifampin and rifaximin. There was no significant association between prior rifamycin use and rifamycin-resistant CDI. Cases and controls did not differ according to demographic characteristics, length of hospital stay, known risk factors of CDI, type of CDI-onset, and pre-infection medical co-morbidities. Our results on 37 rifaximin-resistant isolates (MIC ≥32 &mgr;g/ml) showed more than half of isolates had a rifaximin MIC ≥256 &mgr;g/ml, and out of these isolates, 19 isolates had MICs ≥1024 &mgr;g/ml. ^ Conclusions. Using a large series of rifamycin-non-susceptible isolates, no patient characteristics were independently associated with rifamycin-resistant CDI. This data suggests that factors beyond previous use of rifamycin antibiotics are primary risk factors for rifamycin-resistant C. difficile. ^
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Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^
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Producers utilizing a two year rotation of corn and soybean often apply fertilizer on a biannual basis, spreading recommended amounts of phosphorus and potassium for both crops prior to corn establishment. This approach minimizes application costs and is in accordance with university fertility recommendations that have found a low probability of fertilizer yield response when soils tested at the medium/optimum level or above. However, the field trials on which these state recommendations were developed are often several decades old. Increases in average corn and soybean yields and associated increases in crop nutrient removal rates have called into question the validity of these recommendations for current production environments. This study investigated the response of soil test levels and grain yield to annual and biannual fertilizer applications made at 1x and 2x rates of current university fertilizer recommendations.
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reduce costs and labor associated with predicting the genotypic mean (GM) of a synthetic variety (SV) of maize (Zea mays L.), breeders can develop SVs from L lines and s single crosses (SynL,SC) instead of L+2s lines (SynL). The objective of this work was to derive and study formulae for the inbreeding coefficient (IC) and GM of SynL,SC, SynL, and the SV derived from (L+2s)/2 single crosses (SynSC). All SVs were derived from the same L+2s unrelated lines whose IC is FL, and each parent of a SV was represented by m plants. An a priori probability equation for the IC was used. Important results were: 1) the largest and smallest GMs correspond to SynL and SynL,SC, respectively; 2) the GM predictors with the largest and intermediate precision are those for SynL and SynL,SC, respectively; 3) only when FL=1, or m is large, SynL and SynSC are the same population, but only with SynSC prediction costs and labor undergo the maximum decrease, although its prediction precision is the lowest. To determine the SV to be developed, breeders should also consider the availability of lines, single crosses, manpower and land area; besides budget, target farmers, target environments, etc.
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Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.
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The glacial-to-Holocene evolution of subarctic Pacific surface water stratification and silicic acid (Si) dynamics is investigated based on new combined diatom oxygen (d18Odiat) and silicon (d30Sidiat) isotope records, along with new biogenic opal, subsurface foraminiferal d18O, alkenone-based sea surface temperature, sea ice, diatom, and core logging data from the NE Pacific. Our results suggest that d18Odiat values are primarily influenced by changes in freshwater discharge from the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS), while corresponding d30Sidiat are primarily influenced by changes in Si supply to surface waters. Our data indicate enhanced glacial to mid Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) NE Pacific surface water stratification, generally limiting the Si supply to surface waters. However, we suggest that an increase in Si supply during early HS1, when surface waters were still stratified, is linked to increased North Pacific Intermediate Water formation. The coincidence between fresh surface waters during HS1 and enhanced ice-rafted debris sedimentation in the North Atlantic indicates a close link between CIS and Laurentide Ice Sheet dynamics and a dominant atmospheric control on CIS deglaciation. The Bølling/Allerød (B/A) is characterized by destratification in the subarctic Pacific and an increased supply of saline, Si-rich waters to surface waters. This change toward increased convection occurred prior to the Bølling warming and is likely triggered by a switch to sea ice-free conditions during late HS1. Our results furthermore indicate a decreased efficiency of the biological pump during late HS1 and the B/A (possibly also the Younger Dryas), suggesting that the subarctic Pacific has then been a source region of atmospheric CO2.