Evaluation of Viral Load Thresholds for Predicting New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: This study evaluated a wide range of viral load (VL) thresholds to identify a cut-point that best predicts new clinical events in children on stable highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods: Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the adjusted risk for World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 clinical events (WHO events) as a function of time-varying CD4, VL, and hemoglobin values in a cohort study of Latin American children on HAART >= 6 months. Models were fit using different VL cut-points between 400 and 50,000 copies per milliliter, with model fit evaluated on the basis of the minimum Akaike information criterion value, a standard model fit statistic. Results: Models were based on 67 subjects with WHO events out of 550 subjects on study. The VL cut-points of >2600 and >32,000 copies per milliliter corresponded to the lowest Akaike information criterion values and were associated with the highest hazard ratios (2.0, P = 0.015; and 2.1, P = 0.0058, respectively) for WHO events. Conclusions: In HIV-infected Latin American children on stable HAART, 2 distinct VL thresholds (>2600 and >32,000 copies/mL) were identified for predicting children at significantly increased risk for HIV-related clinical illness, after accounting for CD4 level, hemoglobin level, and other significant factors.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

Predicting the connectivity of primate cortical networks from topological and spatial node properties

Abstract Background The organization of the connectivity between mammalian cortical areas has become a major subject of study, because of its important role in scaffolding the macroscopic aspects of animal behavior and intelligence. In this study we present a computational reconstruction approach to the problem of network organization, by considering the topological and spatial features of each area in the primate cerebral cortex as subsidy for the reconstruction of the global cortical network connectivity. Starting with all areas being disconnected, pairs of areas with similar sets of features are linked together, in an attempt to recover the original network structure. Results Inferring primate cortical connectivity from the properties of the nodes, remarkably good reconstructions of the global network organization could be obtained, with the topological features allowing slightly superior accuracy to the spatial ones. Analogous reconstruction attempts for the C. elegans neuronal network resulted in substantially poorer recovery, indicating that cortical area interconnections are relatively stronger related to the considered topological and spatial properties than neuronal projections in the nematode. Conclusion The close relationship between area-based features and global connectivity may hint on developmental rules and constraints for cortical networks. Particularly, differences between the predictions from topological and spatial properties, together with the poorer recovery resulting from spatial properties, indicate that the organization of cortical networks is not entirely determined by spatial constraints.

MMP-7 and TIMP-1, news targets in predicting poor wound healing in apical periodontitis

Introduction: Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and the tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs) are strongly associated with tissue destruction because of inflammation. In this study, we investigated the expression of MMPs and TIMPs messenger RNA and protein levels in apical periodontitis lesions. Methods: Tissue samples from patients presenting clinical signs of chronic apical abscess (CAA) or asymptomatic apical periodontitis (AAP) were collected postoperatively and used for gene expression analysis of MMP-2, -3, -7, -9, -14, -16, and -25; TIMP-1; and TIMP-2 in real-time polymerase chain reaction. Immunohistochemistry was also performed to detect the expression of MMP-7 and TIMP-1 proteins. Lastly, U-937 cells were induced to terminal differentiation into macrophages, infected with purified Escherichia coli lipopolysaccharide, and assessed for the expression of MMP-7 and TIMP-1 using immunocytochemistry and confocal microscopy. Results: Significantly higher messenger RNA levels were found for all genes in AAP and CAA samples when compared with healthy control samples (P < .001). AAP cases exhibited significantly higher TIMP-1 when compared with CAA cases, whereas CAA cases showed higher MMP-2, MMP-7, and MMP-9 messenger RNA levels (P < .05). We also detected positive the expression of MMP-7 and TIMP-1 proteins in the tissue samples. The expression of both MMP-7 and TIMP-1 were increased in lipopolysaccharide-stimulated cells compared with nonstimulated cells and appear to colocalize in the Golgi apparatus. Conclusions: MMPs appear to have an influential role in CAA cases in which ongoing tissue destruction is observed. TIMPs are preferentially associated with AAP, perhaps as a subsequent defense mechanism against excessive destruction. Taken together, our findings implicate MMP and TIMP molecules in the dynamics of inflammatory periapical lesion development

Effectiveness of a multifactorial falls prevention program in community-dwelling older people when compared to usual care: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (Prevquedas Brazil)

Background Falling in older age is a major public health concern due to its costly and disabling consequences. However very few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have been conducted in developing countries, in which population ageing is expected to be particularly substantial in coming years. This article describes the design of an RCT to evaluate the effectiveness of a multifactorial falls prevention program in reducing the rate of falls in community-dwelling older people. Methods/design Multicentre parallel-group RCT involving 612 community-dwelling men and women aged 60 years and over, who have fallen at least once in the previous year. Participants will be recruited in multiple settings in Sao Paulo, Brazil and will be randomly allocated to a control group or an intervention group. The usual care control group will undergo a fall risk factor assessment and be referred to their clinicians with the risk assessment report so that individual modifiable risk factors can be managed without any specific guidance. The intervention group will receive a 12-week Multifactorial Falls Prevention Program consisting of: an individualised medical management of modifiable risk factors, a group-based, supervised balance training exercise program plus an unsupervised home-based exercise program, an educational/behavioral intervention. Both groups will receive a leaflet containing general information about fall prevention strategies. Primary outcome measures will be the rate of falls and the proportion of fallers recorded by monthly falls diaries and telephone calls over a 12 month period. Secondary outcomes measures will include risk of falling, fall-related self-efficacy score, measures of balance, mobility and strength, fall-related health services use and independence with daily tasks. Data will be analysed using the intention-to-treat principle.The incidence of falls in the intervention and control groups will be calculated and compared using negative binomial regression analysis. Discussion This study is the first trial to be conducted in Brazil to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention to prevent falls. If proven to reduce falls this study has the potential to benefit older adults and assist health care practitioners and policy makers to implement and promote effective falls prevention interventions. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01698580)

Validation of models for predicting milk urea nitrogen concentrations, estimating dry matter intake by the NRC (2001)

The objective of this study was to validate three different models for predicting milk urea nitrogen using field conditions, attempting to evaluate the nutritional adequacy diets for dairy cows and prediction of nitrogen excreted to the environment. Observations (4,749) from 855 cows were used. Milk yield, body weight (BW), days in milk and parity were recorded on the milk sampling days. Milk was sampled monthly, for analysis of milk urea nitrogen (MUN), fat, protein, lactose and total solids concentration and somatic cells count. Individual dry matter intake was estimated using the NRC (2001). The three models studied were derived from a first one to predict urinary nitrogen (UN). Model 1 was MUN = UN/12.54, model 2 was MUN = UN/17.6 and model 3 was MUN = UN/(0.0259 × BW), adjusted by body weight effect. To evaluate models, they were tested for accuracy, precision and robustness. Despite being more accurate (mean bias = 0.94 mg/dL), model 2 was less precise (residual error = 4.50 mg/dL) than model 3 (mean bias = 1.41 and residual error = 4.11 mg/dL), while model 1 was the least accurate (mean bias = 6.94 mg/dL) and the least precise (residual error = 5.40 mg/dL). They were not robust, because they were influenced by almost all the variables studied. The three models for predicting milk urea nitrogen were different with respect to accuracy, precision and robustness.

Factors predicting mortality after tips for refractory ascites: a single center experience

Introduction: Transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPS) is an accepted indication for treating refractory ascites. Different models have been proposed for the prediction of survival after TIPS; aim of present study was to evaluate the factors associated with mortality after TIPS for refractory ascites. Methods: Seventy-three consecutive patients undergoing a TIPS for refractory ascites in our centre between 2003 and 2008, were prospectively recorded in a database ad were the subject of the study. Mean follow-up was 17±2 months. Forty patients were awaiting liver transplantation (LT) and 12 (16.4%) underwent LT during follow-up. Results: Mean MELD at the moment of TIPS was 15.7±5.3. Overall mortality was 23.3% (n=17) with a mean survival after TIPS of 17±14 months. MELD score (B=0.161, p=0.042), AST (B= 0.020, p=0.090) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.016, p=0.093) were independent predictors of overall mortality. On multivariate analysis MELD (B=0.419, p=0.018) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.223, p=0.060) independently predicted 1 year survival. Patients were stratified into categories of death risk, using ROC curves for the variables MELD and HVPG. Patients with MELD<10 had a low probability of death after TIPS (n=6, 16% mortality); patients with HVPG <16 mmHg (n=6) had no mortality. Maximum risk of death was found in patients with MELD score 19 (n=16, 31% mortality) and in those with HVPG 25 mmHg (n=27, 26% mortality). Conclusions: TIPS increases overall survival in patients with refractory ascites. Liver function (assessed by MELD), necroinflammation (AST) and portal hypertension (HVPG) are independent predictors of survival; patients with MELD>19 and HVPG>25 mmHg are at highest risk of death after TIPS

Biomedical engineering for healthy ageing. Predictive tools for falls

Falls are common and burdensome accidents among the elderly. About one third of the population aged 65 years or more experience at least one fall each year. Fall risk assessment is believed to be beneficial for fall prevention. This thesis is about prognostic tools for falls for community-dwelling older adults. We provide an overview of the state of the art. We then take different approaches: we propose a theoretical probabilistic model to investigate some properties of prognostic tools for falls; we present a tool whose parameters were derived from data of the literature; we train and test a data-driven prognostic tool. Finally, we present some preliminary results on prediction of falls through features extracted from wearable inertial sensors. Heterogeneity in validation results are expected from theoretical considerations and are observed from empirical data. Differences in studies design hinder comparability and collaborative research. According to the multifactorial etiology of falls, assessment on multiple risk factors is needed in order to achieve good predictive accuracy.

Predicting CMS datasets popularity with machine learning

In CMS è stato lanciato un progetto di Data Analytics e, all’interno di esso, un’attività specifica pilota che mira a sfruttare tecniche di Machine Learning per predire la popolarità dei dataset di CMS. Si tratta di un’osservabile molto delicata, la cui eventuale predizione premetterebbe a CMS di costruire modelli di data placement più intelligenti, ampie ottimizzazioni nell’uso dello storage a tutti i livelli Tiers, e formerebbe la base per l’introduzione di un solito sistema di data management dinamico e adattivo. Questa tesi descrive il lavoro fatto sfruttando un nuovo prototipo pilota chiamato DCAFPilot, interamente scritto in python, per affrontare questa sfida.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Predicting and monitoring cancer treatment response with diffusion-weighted MRI

An imaging biomarker that would provide for an early quantitative metric of clinical treatment response in cancer patients would provide for a paradigm shift in cancer care. Currently, nonimage based clinical outcome metrics include morphology, clinical, and laboratory parameters, however, these are obtained relatively late following treatment. Diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) holds promise for use as a cancer treatment response biomarker as it is sensitive to macromolecular and microstructural changes which can occur at the cellular level earlier than anatomical changes during therapy. Studies have shown that successful treatment of many tumor types can be detected using DW-MRI as an early increase in the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values. Additionally, low pretreatment ADC values of various tumors are often predictive of better outcome. These capabilities, once validated, could provide for an important opportunity to individualize therapy thereby minimizing unnecessary systemic toxicity associated with ineffective therapies with the additional advantage of improving overall patient health care and associated costs. In this report, we provide a brief technical overview of DW-MRI acquisition protocols, quantitative image analysis approaches and review studies which have implemented DW-MRI for the purpose of early prediction of cancer treatment response.

Change over time in posttraumatic stress caused by myocardial infarction and predicting variables

The traumatic experience of a heart attack may evolve into symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, which can be diagnosed at the earliest 1 month after myocardial infarction (MI). While several predictors of posttraumatic stress in the first year after MI have been described, we particularly sought to identify longer-term predictors and predictors of change in posttraumatic stress over time.

Pressure-cornea-vascular index (PCVI) for predicting disease progression in normal tension glaucoma

It has been shown that the pressure-to-cornea index (PCI), which estimates the relative effects of intraocular pressure (IOP) and central corneal thickness (CCT), may differentiate between glaucoma and non-glaucoma states. The authors investigated the utility of the pressure-cornea-vascular index (PCVI) in predicting field-progression in patients with normal tension glaucoma (NTG).