961 resultados para Markov chain modelling


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In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and methods for checking them are described. It is shown on a simple example how different modelling assumptions act on the model equations and their effect on the differential index of the resulted model is also indicated.

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H-1 NMR spectra of the thyroid hormone thyroxine recorded at low temperature and high field show splitting into two peaks of the resonance due to the H2,6 protons of the inner (tyrosyl) ring. A single resonance is observed in 600 MHz spectra at temperatures above 185 K. An analysis of the line shape as a function of temperature shows that the coalescence phenomenon is due to an exchange process with a barrier of 37 kJ mol(-1). This is identical to the barrier for coalescence of the H2',6' protons of the outer (phenolic) ring reported previously for the thyroid hormones and their analogues. It is proposed that the separate peaks at low temperature are due to resonances for H2,6 in cisoid and transoid conformers which are populated in approximately equal populations. These two peaks are averaged resonances for the individual H2 and H6 protons. Conversion of cisoid to transoid forms can occur via rotation of either the alanyl side chain or the outer ring, from one face of the inner ring to the other. It is proposed that the latter process is the one responsible for the observed coalescence phenomenon. The barrier to rotation of the alanyl side chain is greater than or equal to 37 kJ mol(-1), which is significantly larger than has previously been reported for Csp(2)-Csp(3) bonds in other Ph-CH2-X systems. The recent crystal structure of a hormone agonist bound to the ligand-binding domain of the rat thyroid hormone receptor (Wagner et al. Nature 1995, 378, 690-697) shows the transoid form to be the bound conformation. The significant energy barrier to cisoid/transoid interconversion determined in the current study combined with the tight fit of the hormone to its receptor suggests that interconversion between the forms cannot occur at the receptor site but that selection for the preferred bound form occurs from the 50% population of the transoid form in solution.

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Background Recently, there has been an increase in the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), which represents an important health problem. This increase may be related to the epidemiologic expansion of the infective agent and the increase in tourism in tropical areas. The difficulty in clinical diagnosis, mainly in areas in which CL is not the first consideration of local physicians, has intensified efforts to describe diagnostic tests, which should be specific, sensitive, and practical. Amongst the new tests described are those including nucleic acid amplification (polymerase chain reaction, PCR) and immunohistochemistry (IHC). Methods In this study, we evaluated the sensitivity of a PCR based on small subunit (SSU) ribosomal DNA, in comparison with IHC using Leishmania spp. antibodies, in biopsies embedded in paraffin. Result The results indicated a total sensitivity of 96% (90.9% with PCR and 68.8% with IHC), showing the possibility of using paraffin-embedded biopsies to diagnose CL. Conclusion We propose the use of the two tests together as a routine protocol for diagnosis. This would require the provision of local medical services to perform molecular biology techniques and adequate Leishmania antibodies.

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BACKGROUND: Chagas` disease reactivation (CDR) after heart transplantation is characterized by relapse of the infectious disease, with direct detection of Trypanosoma cruzi parasites in blood, cerebrospinal fluid, or tissues. CDR affecting the myocardium induces lymphocytic myocarditis and should be distinguished from acute cellular rejection in endomyocardial biopsy (EMB) specimens. METHODS: We performed retrospectively qualitative polymerase chain reaction for T cruzi DNA using 2 sets of primers targeting nuclear DNA (nDNA) or kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) in 61 EMB specimens of 11 chagasic heart transplant recipients who presented with CDR. Thirty-five EMB specimens were obtained up to 6 months before (pre-CDR group) and 26 up to 2 years after the diagnosis of CDR. The control group consisted of 6 chagasic heart transplant recipients with 18 EMB specimens who never experienced CDR. RESULTS: Amplification of kDNA occurred in 8 of 35 (22.9%) EMB specimens of the pre-CDR group, in 5 of 18(27.8%) of the control group, and in 17 of 26(65.4%) EMB specimens obtained after the successful treatment of CDR. Amplification of nDNA occurred in 3 of 35 (8.6%) EMB specimens of the pre-CDR group, 0 of 18 (0%) of the control group, and 6 of 26 (23.1%) EMB specimens obtained after the successful treatment of CDR. CONCLUSIONS: Amplification of kDNA in EMB specimens is not specific for the diagnosis of CDR, occurring also in patients with no evidence of CDR (control group). However, amplification of nDNA occurred in a few EMB specimens obtained before CDR, but in none of the control group specimens. Qualitative PCR for T cruzi DNA in EMB specimens should not be used as a criterion for cure of CDR because it can persist positive despite favorable clinical evolution of the patients. J Heart Lung Transplant 2011;30:799-804 (C) 2011 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

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The successful elimination of vectorial and transfusional transmission of Chagas` disease from some countries is a result of the reduction of domestic density of the primary vector Triatoma infestans, of almost 100% of coverage in blood serological selection and to the fact that the basic reproductive number of Chagas` disease is very close to one (1.25). Therefore, congenital transmission is currently the only way of acquiring Chagas` Disease in such regions. In this paper we propose a model of congenital transmission of Chagas` disease. Its aim is to provide an estimation of the time period it will take to eliminate this form of transmission in regions where vetorial transmission was reduced to close to zero, like in Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The use of improved microbiological procedures associated with molecular techniques has increased the identification of Candida bloodstream infections, even if the isolation of more than one species by culture methods remains uncommon. We report the cases of two children presenting with severe gastrointestinal disorders and other risk factors that contribute to Candida infections. In the first patient, C. albicans DNA was initially detected by a nested-amplification and C. tropicalis was found later during hospitalization, while blood cultures were persistently negative. In the second child, there was amplification of C. albicans and C. glabrata DNA in the same samples, but blood cultures yielded only C. albicans. Both patients received antifungal therapy but had unfavorable outcomes. These two cases illustrate that PCR was more successful than culture methods in detecting Candida in the bloodstream of high risk children, and was also able to detect the presence of more than one species in the same patient that might impact therapy when the fungi are resistant to azole compounds.

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Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.