Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Determination of the effect of JO146, a CtHtrA inhibitor, on the chlamydial developmental cycle and persistence

The role of Chlamydia trachomatis HtrA (CtHtrA) for the growth and pathogenesis of this organism is presented. Inhibition of CtHtrA led to loss of infectious progeny in Chlamydia, particularly during heat stress or recovery from penicillin persistence. Isolation of CtHtrA inhibitor resistant mutants identified positive selection for mutants in fatty acid related pathways. Importantly, HtrA inhibition was effective against clinical isolates of C. trachomatis. Thus the findings combined indicate that CtHtrA is an important chlamydial growth factor that has the potential to be targeted for the development of anti-chlamydial drugs in the future.

targetTB: A target identification pipeline for Mycobacterium tuberculosis through an interactome, reactome and genome-scale structural analysis

Background: Tuberculosis still remains one of the largest killer infectious diseases, warranting the identification of newer targets and drugs. Identification and validation of appropriate targets for designing drugs are critical steps in drug discovery, which are at present major bottle-necks. A majority of drugs in current clinical use for many diseases have been designed without the knowledge of the targets, perhaps because standard methodologies to identify such targets in a high-throughput fashion do not really exist. With different kinds of 'omics' data that are now available, computational approaches can be powerful means of obtaining short-lists of possible targets for further experimental validation. Results: We report a comprehensive in silico target identification pipeline, targetTB, for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The pipeline incorporates a network analysis of the protein-protein interactome, a flux balance analysis of the reactome, experimentally derived phenotype essentiality data, sequence analyses and a structural assessment of targetability, using novel algorithms recently developed by us. Using flux balance analysis and network analysis, proteins critical for survival of M. tuberculosis are first identified, followed by comparative genomics with the host, finally incorporating a novel structural analysis of the binding sites to assess the feasibility of a protein as a target. Further analyses include correlation with expression data and non-similarity to gut flora proteins as well as 'anti-targets' in the host, leading to the identification of 451 high-confidence targets. Through phylogenetic profiling against 228 pathogen genomes, shortlisted targets have been further explored to identify broad-spectrum antibiotic targets, while also identifying those specific to tuberculosis. Targets that address mycobacterial persistence and drug resistance mechanisms are also analysed. Conclusion: The pipeline developed provides rational schema for drug target identification that are likely to have high rates of success, which is expected to save enormous amounts of money, resources and time in the drug discovery process. A thorough comparison with previously suggested targets in the literature demonstrates the usefulness of the integrated approach used in our study, highlighting the importance of systems-level analyses in particular. The method has the potential to be used as a general strategy for target identification and validation and hence significantly impact most drug discovery programmes.

Standardised antibacterial Manuka honey in the management of persistent post-operative corneal oedema: A case series

Background Corneal oedema is a common post-operative problem that delays or prevents visual recovery from ocular surgery. Honey is a supersaturated solution of sugars with an acidic pH, high osmolarity and low water content. These characteristics inhibit the growth of micro-organisms, reduce oedema and promote epithelialisation. This clinical case series describes the use of a regulatory approved Leptospermum species honey ophthalmic product, in the management of post-operative corneal oedema and bullous keratopathy. Methods A retrospective review of 18 consecutive cases (30 eyes) with corneal oedema persisting beyond one month after single or multiple ocular surgical procedures (phacoemulsification cataract surgery and additional procedures) treated with Optimel Antibacterial Manuka Eye Drops twice to three times daily as an adjunctive therapy to conventional topical management with corticosteroid, aqueous suppressants, hypertonic sodium chloride five per cent, eyelid hygiene and artificial tears. Visual acuity and central corneal thickness were measured before and at the conclusion of Optimel treatment. Results A temporary reduction in corneal epithelial oedema lasting up to several hours was observed after the initial Optimel instillation and was associated with a reduction in central corneal thickness, resolution of epithelial microcysts, collapse of epithelial bullae, improved corneal clarity, improved visualisation of the intraocular structures and improved visual acuity. Additionally, with chronic use, reduction in punctate epitheliopathy, reduction in central corneal thickness and improvement in visual acuity were achieved. Temporary stinging after Optimel instillation was experienced. No adverse infectious or inflammatory events occurred during treatment with Optimel. Conclusions Optimel was a safe and effective adjunctive therapeutic strategy in the management of persistent post-operative corneal oedema and warrants further investigation in clinical trials.

Cyclosporin-responsive enteropathy and protracted diarrhea

We describe a child bom to unrelated parents who developed severe protracted secretory type diarrhea associated with subtotal villus atrophy and intestinal inflammation at the age of 19 months. No infectious, metabolic, or anatomical basis for this condition was identified and the child required total parenteral nutrition for a period of 18 months despite trials of special enteral formulas, steroids, and anti-inflammatory agents. This refractory “enteropathy” responded dramatically to the introduction of cyclosporin, with cessation of the secretory diarrhea, recovery from the enteropathy, and cessation of parenteral nutrition. The symptoms relapsed when cyclosporin was briefly discontinued and improved following reintroduction of this drug. This experience suggests a role for immune factors in the pathogenesis of the enteropathy in this case and that a trial of cyclosporin is worthy of consideration in similar cases. © 1990 Raven Press, Ltd., New York.

Analysis of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 drug resistance in children receiving nucleoside analogue reverse-transcriptase inhibitors plus nevirapine, nelfinavir, or ritonavir (Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 377)

In Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 377, antiretroviral therapy-experienced children were randomized to 4 treatment arms that included different combinations of stavudine, lamivudine (3TC), nevirapine (Nvp), nelfinavir (Nfv), and ritonavir (Rtv). Previous treatment with zidovudine (Zdv), didanosine (ddI), or zalcitabine (ddC) was acceptable. Drug resistance ((R)) mutations were assessed before study treatment (baseline) and at virologic failure. Zdv(R), ddI(R), and ddC(R) mutations were detected frequently at baseline but were not associated with virologic failure. Children with drug resistance mutations at baseline had greater reductions in virus load over time than did children who did not. Nvp(R) and 3TC(R) mutations were detected frequently at virologic failure, and Nvp(R) mutations were more common among children receiving 3-drug versus 4-drug Nvp-containing regimens. Children who were maintained on their study regimen after virologic failure accumulated additional Nvp(R) and 3TC(R) mutations plus Rtv(R) and Nfv(R) mutations. However, Rtv(R) and Nfv(R) mutations were detected at unexpectedly low rates.

Disease mapping using Bayesian hierarchical models

description and analysis of geographically indexed health data with respect to demographic, environmental, behavioural, socioeconomic, genetic, and infectious risk factors (Elliott andWartenberg 2004). Disease maps can be useful for estimating relative risk; ecological analyses, incorporating area and/or individual-level covariates; or cluster analyses (Lawson 2009). As aggregated data are often more readily available, one common method of mapping disease is to aggregate the counts of disease at some geographical areal level, and present them as choropleth maps (Devesa et al. 1999; Population Health Division 2006). Therefore, this chapter will focus exclusively on methods appropriate for areal data...

Presence of Nicotinamide Adenine Dinucleotide–Independent Haemophilus paragallinarum in Mexico

Two isolates of Haemophilus paragallinarum were obtained from a layer chicken in Mexico. The isolates were confirmed as H. paragallinarum by polymerase chain reaction and conventional biochemical identification. The isolates were nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) independent—growing on blood agar without the need of a nurse colony as well as on a complex medium that lacked both NAD and chicken serum. Both isolates were pathogenic, causing the typical clinical signs of infectious coryza in susceptible chickens. One isolate was Page serovar B/Kume serovar B-1 and the other isolate was Page serovar C/Kume serovar C-2. The isolates were associated with a field outbreak that involved an egg drop of 20% over a 3 wk period and a doubling of weekly mortality (from 0.1% to 0.2%). This is the first report of NAD-independent H. paragallinarum outside South Africa and is the first time that NADindependent H. paragallinarum of serovar B has been reported. Abbreviations: NAD ¼ nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide; NAM ¼ nicotinamide; PCR ¼ polymerase chain reaction; TM ¼ complete growth medium without chicken serum or nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide; TM/SN ¼ complete growth medium that contains both chicken serum and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide

Virulence of the Nine Serovar Reference Strains of Haemophilus paragallinarum

The virulence of the reference strains of the nine currently recognized Kume serovars of Haemophilus paragallinarum was investigated. The capacity of the H. paragallinarum strains to cause the typical clinical signs of upper respiratory tract disease associated with infectious coryza in unvaccinated, nasal-challenged chickens was assessed. Differences in virulence were assessed by means of a standardized scoring system for clinical signs. All nine strains were pathogenic to chickens, producing typical clinical signs of infectious coryza. The highest clinical signs score was obtained for serovar C-1 (1.72), while the lowest clinical signs score was obtained for serovar C-4 (0.32). Our results indicate that virulence differences exist among the serovars of H. paragallinarum.

Cross-protection study of the nine serovars of Haemophilus paragallinarum in the Kume haemagglutinin scheme

The cross-protection and haemagglutination-inhibition antibodies present in chickens vaccinated with one of the nine currently recognized Kume haemagglutinin serovars of Haemophilus paragallinarum were investigated. The results confirmed the widely accepted dogma that serogroups A, B, and C represent three distinct immunovars. Within Kume serogroup A, there was generally good cross-protection among all four serovars. However, within Kume serogroup C, there was evidence of a reduced level of cross protection between some of the four serovars. The haemagglutination-inhibition antibody levels generally showed the same trend as with the cross-protection results. This study suggests that some apparent field failures of infectious coryza vaccines may be due to a lack of cross-protection between the vaccine strains and the field strains. Our results will help guide the selection of strains for inclusion in infectious coryza vaccines.

Australian Bat Lyssavirus Infection in a Captive Juvenile Black Flying Fox

The newly emerging Australian bat lyssavirus causes rabies like disease in bats and humans. A captive juvenile black flying fox exhibited progressive neurologic signs, including sudden aggression, vocalization, dysphagia, and paresis over 9 days and then died. At necropsy, lyssavirus infection was diagnosed by fluorescent antibody test, immunoperoxidase staining, polymerase chain reaction, and virus isolation. Eight human contacts received postexposure vaccination.

Potential Human Exposure to Australian Bat Lyssavirus, Queensland, 1996-1999

Two human deaths caused by Australian bat lyssavirus (ABL) infection have been reported since 1996. Information was obtained from 205 persons (mostly adults from south Brisbane and the South Coast of Queensland), who reported potential ABL exposure to the Brisbane Southside Public Health Unit from November 1,1996, to January 31, 1999. Volunteer animal handlers accounted for 39% of potential exposures, their family members for 12%, professional animal handlers for 14%, community members who intentionally handled bats for 31%, and community members with contacts initiated by bats for 4%. The prevalence of Lyssavirus detected by fluorescent antibody test in 366 sick, injured, or orphaned bats from the area was 6%. Sequelae of exposure, including the requirement for expensive postexposure prophylaxis, may be reduced by educating bat handlers and the public of the risks involved in handling Australian bats.

Questions to Artificial Nature: A Philosophical Study of Interdisciplinary Models and their Functions in Scientific Practice

This thesis presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how models and simulations function in the production of scientific knowledge. The work is informed by three scholarly traditions: studies on models and simulations in philosophy of science, so-called micro-sociological laboratory studies within science and technology studies, and cultural-historical activity theory. Methodologically, I adopt a naturalist epistemology and combine philosophical analysis with a qualitative, empirical case study of infectious-disease modelling. This study has a dual perspective throughout the analysis: it specifies the modelling practices and examines the models as objects of research. The research questions addressed in this study are: 1) How are models constructed and what functions do they have in the production of scientific knowledge? 2) What is interdisciplinarity in model construction? 3) How do models become a general research tool and why is this process problematic? The core argument is that the mediating models as investigative instruments (cf. Morgan and Morrison 1999) take questions as a starting point, and hence their construction is intentionally guided. This argument applies the interrogative model of inquiry (e.g., Sintonen 2005; Hintikka 1981), which conceives of all knowledge acquisition as process of seeking answers to questions. The first question addresses simulation models as Artificial Nature, which is manipulated in order to answer questions that initiated the model building. This account develops further the "epistemology of simulation" (cf. Winsberg 2003) by showing the interrelatedness of researchers and their objects in the process of modelling. The second question clarifies why interdisciplinary research collaboration is demanding and difficult to maintain. The nature of the impediments to disciplinary interaction are examined by introducing the idea of object-oriented interdisciplinarity, which provides an analytical framework to study the changes in the degree of interdisciplinarity, the tools and research practices developed to support the collaboration, and the mode of collaboration in relation to the historically mutable object of research. As my interest is in the models as interdisciplinary objects, the third research problem seeks to answer my question of how we might characterise these objects, what is typical for them, and what kind of changes happen in the process of modelling. Here I examine the tension between specified, question-oriented models and more general models, and suggest that the specified models form a group of their own. I call these Tailor-made models, in opposition to the process of building a simulation platform that aims at generalisability and utility for health-policy. This tension also underlines the challenge of applying research results (or methods and tools) to discuss and solve problems in decision-making processes.

Evolutionary relationships between bat coronaviruses and their hosts

Recent studies have suggested that bats are the natural reservoir of a range of coronaviruses (CoVs), and that rhinolophid bats harbor viruses closely related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) CoV, which caused an outbreak of respiratory illness in humans during 2002-2003. We examined the evolutionary relationships between bat CoVs and their hosts by using sequence data of the virus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene and the bat cytochrome b gene. Phylogenetic analyses showed multiple incongruent associations between the phylogenies of rhinolophid bats and their CoVs, which suggested that host shifts have occurred in the recent evolutionary history of this group. These shifts may be due to either virus biologic traits or host behavioral traits. This finding has implications for the emergence of SARS and for the potential future emergence of SARS-CoVs or related viruses.

Emerging Viruses: Coming in on a Wrinkled Wing and a Prayer

The role that bats have played in the emergence of several new infectious diseases has been under review. Bats have been identified as the reservoir hosts of newly emergent viruses such as Nipah virus, Hendra virus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome–like coronaviruses. This article expands on recent findings about bats and viruses and their relevance to human infections. It briefly reviews the history of chiropteran viruses and discusses their emergence in the context of geography, phylogeny, and ecology. The public health and trade impacts of several outbreaks are also discussed. Finally, we attempt to predict where, when, and why we may see the emergence of new chiropteran viruses.