Benefits on quality of life concomitant to metabolic improvement in intervention program for prevention of diabetes mellitus

To evaluate whether an interdisciplinary intervention program on lifestyle results in better quality of life (QoL) and lower frequencies of depression and binge eating disorder (BED) in individuals at risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus. A total of 177 individuals (32.2% men, age 55.4 +/- A 12.5 years) at risk for diabetes were allocated to a 9-month traditional (TI) or intensive interdisciplinary intervention (II) on dietary habits and physical activity including psychoeducative groups. They were submitted to questionnaires and clinical and laboratory examinations. Predictors of non-adherence were analyzed by logistic regression. Only individuals submitted to II had blood pressure and plasma glucose levels reduced. Frequencies of depression reduced in both interventions but of BED only in II (28.0-4.0%, P < 0.001). Increments in the scores of SF-36 domains (physical functioning: 11.1 +/- A 14.0 vs. 5.3 +/- A 13.0, role-emotional: 20.4 +/- A 40.2 vs. 6.2 +/- A 43.8, P = 0.05) were greater in the II than in TI, respectively. Changes in SF-36 correlated with decreases in anthropometry, blood pressure and glucose levels, depression and BED scores. Male gender was independently associated with non-adherence to the II. In addition to metabolic benefits, an interdisciplinary approach may induce desirable extrametabolic effects, favoring the control of psychiatric disorders and improving the QoL of individuals at risk for diabetes.

Independent predictors and a prognostic model for surgical outcome in refractory frontal lobe epilepsy

Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of alcohol and other drugs among Brazilian college students: effects of gender and age

Objective: To assess the frequency of drug use among Brazilian college students and its relationship to gender and age. Methods: A nationwide sample of 12,721 college students completed a questionnaire concerning the use of drugs and other behaviors. The Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST-WHO) criteria were used to assess were used to assess hazardous drug use. A multivariate logistic regression model tested the associations of ASSIST-WHO scores with gender and age. The same analyses were carried out to measure drug use in the last 30 days. Results: After controlling for other sociodemographic, academic and administrative variables, men were found to be more likely to use and engage in the hazardous use of anabolic androgenic steroids than women across all age ranges. Conversely, women older than 34 years of age were more likely to use and engage in the hazardous use of amphetamines. Conclusions: These findings are consistent with results that have been reported for the general Brazilian population. Therefore, these findings should be taken into consideration when developing strategies at the prevention of drug use and the early identification of drug abuse among college students.

On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for inadequate prenatal care use in the metropolitan area of Aracaju, Northeast Brazil

Abstract Background The aim of prenatal care is to promote good maternal and foetal health and to identify risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in an attempt to promptly manage and solve them. Although high prenatal care attendance is reported in most areas in Brazil, perinatal and neonatal mortalities are disproportionally high, raising doubts about the quality and performance of the care provided. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the adequacy of prenatal care use and the risk factors involved in inadequate prenatal care utilization in the metropolitan area of Aracaju, Northeast Brazil. Methods A survey was carried out with puerperal women who delivered singleton liveborns in all four maternity hospitals of Aracaju. A total of 4552 singleton liveborns were studied. The Adequacy of Prenatal Care Utilization Index, modified according to the guidelines of the Prenatal Care and Birth Humanization Programme, was applied. Socioeconomic, demographic, biological, life style and health service factors were evaluated by multiple logistic regression. Results: Prenatal care coverage in Aracaju was high (98.3%), with a mean number of 6.24 visits. Prenatal care was considered to be adequate or intensive in 66.1% of cases, while 33.9% were considered to have inadequate usage. Age < 18 to 34 years at delivery, low maternal schooling, low family income, two or more previous deliveries, maternal smoking during pregnancy, having no partner and prenatal care obtained outside Aracaju were associated with inadequate prenatal care use. In contrast, private service attendance protected from inadequate prenatal care use. Conclusion Prenatal care coverage was high. However, a significant number of women still had inadequate prenatal care use. Socioeconomic inequalities, demographic factors and behavioural risk factors are still important factors associated with inadequate prenatal care use.

Hepatitis B virus infection in Haemodialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil. Predictive risk factors for infection and molecular epidemiology

Abstract Background Patients under haemodialysis are considered at high risk to acquire hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Since few data are reported from Brazil, our aim was to assess the frequency and risk factors for HBV infection in haemodialysis patients from 22 Dialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, south of Brazil. Methods This study includes 813 patients, 149 haemodialysis workers and 772 healthy controls matched by sex and age. Serum samples were assayed for HBV markers and viraemia was detected by nested PCR. HBV was genotyped by partial S gene sequencing. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses with stepwise logistic regression analysis were carried out to analyse the relationship between HBV infection and the characteristics of patients and their Dialysis Units. Results Frequency of HBV infection was 10.0%, 2.7% and 2.7% among patients, haemodialysis workers and controls, respectively. Amidst patients, the most frequent HBV genotypes were A (30.6%), D (57.1%) and F (12.2%). Univariate analysis showed association between HBV infection and total time in haemodialysis, type of dialysis equipment, hygiene and sterilization of equipment, number of times reusing the dialysis lines and filters, number of patients per care-worker and current HCV infection. The logistic regression model showed that total time in haemodialysis, number of times of reusing the dialysis lines and filters, and number of patients per worker were significantly related to HBV infection. Conclusions Frequency of HBV infection among haemodialysis patients at Santa Catarina state is very high. The most frequent HBV genotypes were A, D and F. The risk for a patient to become HBV positive increase 1.47 times each month of haemodialysis; 1.96 times if the dialysis unit reuses the lines and filters ≥ 10 times compared with haemodialysis units which reuse < 10 times; 3.42 times if the number of patients per worker is more than five. Sequence similarity among the HBV S gene from isolates of different patients pointed out to nosocomial transmission.

Crowding: risk factor or protective factor for lower respiratory disease in young children?

Abstract Background To study the effects of household crowding upon the respiratory health of young children living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods Case-control study with children aged from 2 to 59 months living within the boundaries of the city of São Paulo. Cases were children recruited from 5 public hospitals in central São Paulo with an acute episode of lower respiratory disease. Children were classified into the following diagnostic categories: acute bronchitis, acute bronchiolitis, pneumonia, asthma, post-bronchiolitis wheezing and wheezing of uncertain aetiology. One control, crudely matched to each case with regard to age (<2, 2 years old or more), was selected among healthy children living in the neighborhood of the case. All buildings were surveyed for the presence of environmental contaminants, type of construction and building material. Plans of all homes, including measurements of floor area, height of walls, windows and solar orientation, was performed. Data were analysed using conditional logistic regression. Results A total of 313 pairs of children were studied. Over 70% of the cases had a primary or an associated diagnosis of a wheezing illness. Compared with controls, cases tended to live in smaller houses with less adequate sewage disposal. Cases and controls were similar with respect to the number of people and the number of children under five living in the household, as well the number of people sharing the child's bedroom. After controlling for potential confounders, no evidence of an association between number of persons sharing the child's bedroom and lower respiratory disease was identified when all cases were compared with their controls. However, when two categories of cases were distinguished (infections, asthma) and each category compared separately with their controls, crowding appeared to be associated with a 60% reduction in the incidence of asthma but with 2 1/2-fold increase in the incidence of lower respiratory tract infections (p = 0.001). Conclusion Our findings suggest that household crowding places young children at risk of acute lower respiratory infection but may protect against asthma. This result is consistent with the hygiene hypothesis.

Prevalence and correlates of dizziness in community-dwelling older people: a cross sectional population based study

Abstract Background Dizziness is a common complaint among older adults and has been linked to a wide range of health conditions, psychological and social characteristics in this population. However a profile of dizziness is still uncertain which hampers clinical decision-making. We therefore sought to explore the relationship between dizziness and a comprehensive range of demographic data, diseases, health and geriatric conditions, and geriatric syndromes in a representative sample of community-dwelling older people. Methods This is a cross-sectional, population-based study derived from FIBRA (Network for the Study of Frailty in Brazilian Elderly Adults), with 391 elderly adults, both men and women, aged 65 years and older. Elderly participants living at home in an urban area were enrolled through a process of random cluster sampling of census regions. The outcome variable was the self-report of dizziness in the last year. Several feelings of dizziness were investigated including vertigo, spinning, light or heavy headedness, floating, fuzziness, giddiness and instability. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to estimate the adjusted odds ratios and build the probability model for dizziness. Results The complaint of dizziness was reported by 45% of elderly adults, from which 71.6% were women (p=0.004). The multivariate regression analysis revealed that dizziness is associated with depressive symptoms (OR = 2.08; 95% CI 1.29–3.35), perceived fatigue (OR = 1.93; 95% CI 1.21-3.10), recurring falls (OR = 2.01; 95% CI 1.11-3.62) and excessive drowsiness (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.11–3.29). The discrimination of the final model was AUC = 0.673 (95% CI 0.619-0.727) (p< 0.001). Conclusions The prevalence of dizziness in community-dwelling elderly adults is substantial. It is associated with other common geriatric conditions usually neglected in elderly adults, such as fatigue and drowsiness, supporting its possible multifactorial manifestation. Our findings demonstrate the need to expand the design in future studies, aiming to estimate risk and identify possible causal relations.

The double task of preventing malnutrition and overweight: a quasi-experimental community-based trial

Background: The Maternal-Child Pastoral is a volunteer-based community organization of the Dominican Republic that works with families to improve child survival and development. A program that promotes key practices of maternal and child care through meetings with pregnant women and home visits to promote child growth and development was designed and implemented. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the program on nutritional status indicators of children in the first two years of age. Methods: A quasi-experimental design was used, with groups paired according to a socioeconomic index, comparing eight geographical areas of intervention with eight control areas. The intervention was carried out by lay health volunteers. Mothers in the intervention areas received home visits each month and participated in a group activity held biweekly during pregnancy and monthly after birth. The primary outcomes were length and body mass index for age. Statistical analyses were based on linear and logistic regression models. Results: 196 children in the intervention group and 263 in the control group were evaluated. The intervention did not show statistically significant effects on length, but point estimates found were in the desired direction: mean difference 0.21 (95%CI −0.02; 0.44) for length-for-age Z-score and OR 0.50 (95%CI 0.22; 1.10) for stunting. Significant reductions of BMI-for-age Z-score (−0.31, 95%CI −0.49; -0.12) and of BMI-for-age > 85th percentile (0.43, 95%CI 0.23; 0.77) were observed. The intervention showed positive effects in some indicators of intermediary factors such as growth monitoring, health promotion activities, micronutrient supplementation, exclusive breastfeeding and complementary feeding. Conclusions: Despite finding effect measures pointing to effects in the desired direction related to malnutrition, we could only detect a reduction in the risk of overweight attributable to the intervention. The findings related to obesity prevention may be of interest in the context of the nutritional transition. Given the size of this study, the results are encouraging and we believe a larger study is warranted.

Physical activity counseling in primary health care in Brazil: a national study on prevalence and associated factors

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and correlates of physical activity counseling among physicians and nurses working in primary health care in Brazil. Methods A phone survey was carried out in 2011 with professionals working in primary health care in Brazil. The target sample consisted of 1,600 randomly selected primary care units covering all regions of the country. We successfully interviewed 529 professionals within the sampled units; 182 physicians and 347 nurses. The overall response rate was 49.6%. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate correlates of counseling in the whole sample and separately for physicians and nurses. Results The prevalence of regular physical activity counseling for at least six months was 68.9% (95% CI 64.9; 72.8) and was significantly higher among physicians compared to nurses (p < 0.05). Most professionals (93.2%) interviewed were unfamiliar with current physical activity recommendations for health. In the adjusted analysis, physical activity counseling was more frequent among those who report assessing patient’s physical activity (OR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.41; 3.29), those reporting that lack of time was not a barrier for counseling (OR = 0.62 95% CI 0.42-0.93), those who felt prepared to provide physical activity counseling (OR = 2.34; 95% CI 1.50-3.66), and those working at primary care units offering physical activity programs for patients (OR = 2.06; 95% CI 1.33-3.20). In the stratified analysis, only assessing patient’s physical activity was a significant correlate among physicians whereas assessing patient’s physical activity, feeling prepared to provide counseling and working in units with physical activity interventions were significant correlates among nurses. Conclusions Physicians and nurses deemed physical activity counseling of great importance in primary health care in Brazil. However, in order to increase the quality of counseling and the number of professionals engaging in this activity, these health teams require greater knowledge about physical activity (global recommendations for health) as well as training on the application of instruments for assessing physical activity. Moreover, sufficient time must be allowed during consultations for the counseling process, and physical activity promotion programs should be implemented within the primary health care units.

Low sclerostin levels: a predictive marker of persistent inflammation in ankylosing spondylitis during anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy?

Abstract Introduction Sclerostin levels have been reported to be low in ankylosing spondylitis (AS), but there is no data regarding the possible role of this Wnt inhibitor during anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy. The present study longitudinally evaluated sclerostin levels, inflammatory markers and bone mineral density (BMD) in AS patients under anti-TNF therapy. Methods Thirty active AS patients were assessed at baseline, 6 and 12 months after anti-TNF therapy regarding clinical parameters, inflammatory markers, BMD and baseline radiographic damage (mSASSS). Thirty age- and sex-matched healthy individuals comprised the control group. Patients' sclerostin levels, sclerostin binding low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 6 (LRP6) and BMD were evaluated at the same time points and compared to controls. Results At baseline, AS patients had lower sclerostin levels (60.5 ± 32.7 vs. 96.7 ± 52.9 pmol/L, P = 0.002) and comparable sclerostin binding to LRP6 (P = 0.387) than controls. Improvement of Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Metrology Index (BASMI), Ankylosing Spondylitis quality of life (ASQoL) was observed at baseline vs. 6 vs. 12 months (P < 0.01). Concomitantly, a gradual increase in spine BMD (P < 0.001) and a positive correlation between baseline mSASSS and spine BMD was found (r = 0.468, P < 0.01). Inflammatory parameters reduction was observed comparing baseline vs. 6 vs. 12 months (P <0.01). Sclerostin levels progressively increased [baseline (60.5 ± 32.7) vs. 6 months (67.1 ± 31.9) vs. 12 months (72.7 ± 32.3) pmol/L, P <0.001]. At 12 months, the sclerostin levels remained significantly lower in patients compared to controls (72.7 ± 32.3 vs. 96.70 ± 52.85 pmol/L, P = 0.038). Moreover, sclerostin serum levels at 12 months were lower in the 10 patients with high C reactive protein (CRP) (≥ 5 mg/l) compared to the other 20 patients with normal CRP (P = 0.004). Of note, these 10 patients with persistent inflammation also had lower sclerostin serum levels at baseline compared to the other patients (P = 0.023). Univariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that AS patients with lower sclerostin serum levels had an increased risk to have high CRP at 12 months (odds ratio = 7.43, 95% CI 1.23 to 45.01, P = 0.020) than those with higher sclerostin values. Conclusions Persistent low sclerostin levels may underlie continuous inflammation in AS patients under anti-TNF therapy.

MTP -493G/T gene polymorphism is associated with steatosis in hepatitis C-infected patients

The reduction of hepatic microsomal transfer protein (MTP) activity results in fatty liver, worsening hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The G allele of the MTP gene promoter, -493G/T, has been associated with lower transcriptional activity than the T allele. We investigated this association with metabolic and histological variables in patients with CHC. A total of 174 untreated patients with CHC were genotyped for MTP -493G/T by direct sequencing using PCR. All patients were negative for markers of Wilson’s disease, hemochromatosis and autoimmune diseases and had current and past daily alcohol intake lower than 100 g/week. The sample distribution was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Among subjects with genotype 1, 56.8% of the patients with fibrosis grade 3+4 presented at least one G allele versus 34.3% of the patients with fibrosis grade 1+2 (OR = 1.8; 95%CI = 1.3-2.3). Logistic regression analysis with steatosis as the dependent variable identified genotypes GG+GT as independent protective factors against steatosis (OR = 0.4, 95%CI = 0.2-0.8; P = 0.01). The results suggest that the presence of the G allele of MTP -493G/T associated with lower hepatic MTP expression protects against steatosis in our CHC patients.

Un’analisi statistico – economica dell’impatto delle norme WHO su nutrizione e salute

I comportamenti nutrizionali stanno assumendo sempre maggiore rilievo all’interno delle politiche comunitarie e questo sottolinea che la dieta sta avendo, negli ultimi anni, una maggiore importanza come fattore di causa e allo stesso tempo prevenzione nella diffusione di malattie croniche come il cancro, malattie cardiovascolari, diabete, osteoporosi e disturbi dentali. Numerosi studi mostrano infatti che i tassi di obesità sono triplicati nelle ultime due decadi e si è stimato che, se i livelli di obesità continueranno a crescere allo stesso tasso del 1990, nel 2010 il numero di persone obese raggiungerà i 150 milioni tra gli adulti e i 15 milioni tra bambini e adolescenti. I governi nazionali stanno quindi cercando di risolvere questo problema, a cui sono inoltre legati alti costi nazionali, tramite l’implementazione di politiche nutrizionali. Analisi di tipo cross-section sono già state evidenziate da studiosi come Schmidhuber e Traill (2006), i quali hanno effettuato un’analisi di convergenza a livello europeo per esaminare la distanza tra le calorie immesse da 426 prodotti diversi. In quest’analisi hanno così dimostrato la presenza di una similarità distinta e crescente tra i paesi europei per quanto riguarda la composizione della dieta. Srinivasan et al. invece hanno osservato la relazione esistente tra ogni singolo prodotto alimentare consumato e le norme nutrizionali dell’ Organizzazione Mondiale della Sanità (World Health Organization, WHO) Lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di evidenziare il problema a livello di aggregati nutritivi e di specifiche componenti nutrizionali come zucchero, frutta e verdura e non relativamente ad ogni singolo prodotto consumato. A questo proposito ci si è basati sulla costruzione di un indicatore (Recommendation Compliance Index) in modo da poter misurare le distanze tra la dieta media e le raccomandazioni del WHO. Lo scopo è quindi quello di riuscire a quantificare il fenomeno del peggioramento della dieta in diverse aree del mondo negli ultimi quattro decenni, tramite un’analisi panel, basandosi sui dati sui nutrienti consumati, provenienti dal database della FAO (e precisamente dal dataset Food Balance Sheets – FBS). Nella prima fase si introduce il problema dell’obesità e delle malattie croniche correlate, evidenziando dati statistici in diversi paesi europei e mondiali. Si sottolineano inoltre le diverse azioni dei governi e del WHO, tramite l’attuazione di campagne contro l’obesità e in favore di una vita più salutare e di una maggiore attività fisica. Nella seconda fase si è costruito un indicatore aggregato (Recommendation Compliance Index) in modo da analizzare le caratteristiche nella dieta dei diversi Paesi a livello mondiale rispetto alle norme del WHO. L’indicatore si basa sui dati ottenuti da FAOSTAT ed è calcolato per 149 paesi del database dell’FBS per il periodo 1961-2002. Nell’analisi si sono utilizzati i dati sulle percentuali di energia prodotta dalle varie componenti nutritive, quali grassi, grassi saturi e transaturi, zuccheri, carboidrati, proteine e le quantità di frutta e verdura consumate. Inoltre si è applicato un test statistico per testare se il valore del RCI è significativamente cambiato nel tempo, prendendo in considerazione gruppi di Paesi (Paesi OECD, Paesi in via di sviluppo e sottosviluppati). Si è voluto poi valutare la presenza o meno di un processo di convergenza, applicando l’analisi di σ-convergenza per osservare ad esempio se la variabilità è diminuita nel tempo in modo significativo. Infine si è applicato l’indicatore ad un livello micro, utilizzando il database del National Diet and Nutrition Survey, che raccoglie dati di macrocomponenti nutritive e misure antropometriche della popolazione inglese dai 16 ai 64 anni per il periodo 2000-2001. Si sono quindi effettuate analisi descrittive nonché analisi di correlazione, regressione lineare e ordinale per osservare le relazioni tra l’indicatore, i macronutrienti, il reddito e le misure antropometriche dell’ Indice di Massa Corporea (Body Mass Index, BMI) e del rapporto vita-fianchi (Waist-hip ratio, WHR).

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Relazione tra parassitismo intestinale e colica nel paziente equino

Obiettivo: capire la relazione che intercorre tra le coliche del cavallo e le parassitosi intestinali, quindi capire l’effettiva rilevanza clinica delle infezioni parassitarie. Tipo di studio: studio clinico-chirurgico e parassitologico. Metodi: in questo studio sono stati presi in esame 92 cavalli afferiti presso il servizio SARGA del Dipartimento di Scienze Mediche Veterinarie durante gli anni 2009-2011. 27 di questi soggetti sono stati sottoposti a laparotomia esplorativa per colica, 22 avevano una colica che si è risolta con terapia medica, sono stati 43 i cavalli afferiti presso il servizio per patologie diverse dall’addome acuto. I cavalli da cui è stato possibile prelevare un’adeguato quantitativo di feci (# 86) sono stati sottoposti ad esami coprologici, qualitativi e quantitativi. I dati ottenuti sono stati sottoposti ad analisi statistica descrittiva, al test del Chi quadrato e al test di Kuskall-Wallis rispettivamente per le prevalenze e i dati quantitativi, oltre ad una regressione logistica per evidenziare i fattori di rischio. Dai cavalli sottoposti a celiotomia è stato prelevato il contenuto intestinale per la raccolta dei parassiti adulti. Risultati: la prevalenza e l’abbondanza degli strongili è risultata significativamente minore nei cavalli sottoposti a chirurgia addominale rispetto al totale della popolazione presa in esame. Differenze significative di prevalenza sono state evidenziate anche tra i cavalli in colica medica e chirurgica. L’unico fattore di rischio evidenziato dall’analisi di regressione logistica è rappresentato dall’età per le sole coliche trattate chirurgicamente. Né strongili né ascaridi sembrano aumentare il rischio di colica. La probabilità di decesso aumenta significativamente in caso di colica chirurgica ma non è influenzata in alcun modo dalle infezioni parassitarie.