Routine use of point-of-care tests: usefulness and application in clinical microbiology.

Point-of-care (POC) tests offer potentially substantial benefits for the management of infectious diseases, mainly by shortening the time to result and by making the test available at the bedside or at remote care centres. Commercial POC tests are already widely available for the diagnosis of bacterial and viral infections and for parasitic diseases, including malaria. Infectious diseases specialists and clinical microbiologists should be aware of the indications and limitations of each rapid test, so that they can use them appropriately and correctly interpret their results. The clinical applications and performance of the most relevant and commonly used POC tests are reviewed. Some of these tests exhibit insufficient sensitivity, and should therefore be coupled to confirmatory tests when the results are negative (e.g. Streptococcus pyogenes rapid antigen detection test), whereas the results of others need to be confirmed when positive (e.g. malaria). New molecular-based tests exhibit better sensitivity and specificity than former immunochromatographic assays (e.g. Streptococcus agalactiae detection). In the coming years, further evolution of POC tests may lead to new diagnostic approaches, such as panel testing, targeting not just a single pathogen, but all possible agents suspected in a specific clinical setting. To reach this goal, the development of serology-based and/or molecular-based microarrays/multiplexed tests will be needed. The availability of modern technology and new microfluidic devices will provide clinical microbiologists with the opportunity to be back at the bedside, proposing a large variety of POC tests that will allow quicker diagnosis and improved patient care.

The long run relationship between stock prices and goods prices: new evidence from panel cointegration

We examine the long run relationship between stock prices and goods prices to gauge whether stock market investment can hedge against inflation. Data from sixteen OECD countries over the period 1970-2006 are used. We account for different inflation regimes with the use of sub-sample regressions, whilst maintaining the power of tests in small sample sizes by combining time-series data across our sample countries in a panel unit root and panel cointegration econometric framework. The evidence supports a positive long-run relationship between goods prices and stock prices with the estimated goods price coefficient being in line with the generalized Fisher hypothesis.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion

We offer a detailed empirical investigation of the European sovereign debt crisis based on the theoretical model by Arghyrou and Tsoukalas (2010). We find evidence of a marked shift in market pricing behaviour from a ‘convergence-trade’ model before August 2007 to one driven by macro-fundamentals and international risk thereafter. The majority of EMU countries have experienced contagion from Greece. There is no evidence of significant speculation effects originating from CDS markets. Finally, the escalation of the Greek debt crisis since November 2009 is confirmed as the result of an unfavourable shift in countryspecific market expectations. Our findings highlight the necessity of structural, competitiveness-inducing reforms in periphery EMU countries and institutional reforms at the EMU level enhancing intra-EMU economic monitoring and policy co-ordination.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Cohort effects within firms, and their implications for labour market outcomes and the business cycle

The project aims to achieve two objectives. First, we are analysing the labour market implications of the assumption that firms cannot pay similarly qualified employees differently according to when they joined the firm. For example, if the general situation for workers improves, a firm that seeks to hire new workers may feel it has to pay more to new hires. However, if the firm must pay the same wage to new hires and incumbents due to equal treatment, it would either have to raise the wage of the incumbents, or offer new workers a lower wage than the firm would do otherwise. This is very different from the standard assumption in economic analysis that firms are free to treat newly hired workers independently of existing hires. Second, we will use detailed data on individual wages to try to gauge whether (and to what extent) equity is a feature of actual labour markets. To investigate this, we are using two matched employer-employee panel datasets, one from Portugal and the other from Brazil. These unique datasets provide objective records on millions of workers and their firms over a long period of time, so that we can identify which firms employ which workers at each time. The datasets also include a large number of firm and worker variables.

Fact And Fiction In FX Arbitrage Processes

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The “quant” workforce in the hedge fund featured in The Fear Index novel by Robert Harris would have little or no reason for their existence in an EMH world. The four currency combinatorial analysis of arbitrage sequences contained in Cross, Kozyakin, O’Callaghan, Pokrovskii and Pokrovskiy (2012) is then considered. Their results suggest that arbitrage processes, rather than being self-extinguishing, tend to be periodic in nature. This helps explain the fact that arbitrage dealing tends to be endemic in FX markets.

The use of the likelihood ratio for evaluative and investigative purposes in comparative forensic handwriting examination

This paper extends previous research and discussion on the use of multivariate continuous data, which are about to become more prevalent in forensic science. As an illustrative example, attention is drawn here on the area of comparative handwriting examinations. Multivariate continuous data can be obtained in this field by analysing the contour shape of loop characters through Fourier analysis. This methodology, based on existing research in this area, allows one describe in detail the morphology of character contours throughout a set of variables. This paper uses data collected from female and male writers to conduct a comparative analysis of likelihood ratio based evidence assessment procedures in both, evaluative and investigative proceedings. While the use of likelihood ratios in the former situation is now rather well established (typically, in order to discriminate between propositions of authorship of a given individual versus another, unknown individual), focus on the investigative setting still remains rather beyond considerations in practice. This paper seeks to highlight that investigative settings, too, can represent an area of application for which the likelihood ratio can offer a logical support. As an example, the inference of gender of the writer of an incriminated handwritten text is forwarded, analysed and discussed in this paper. The more general viewpoint according to which likelihood ratio analyses can be helpful for investigative proceedings is supported here through various simulations. These offer a characterisation of the robustness of the proposed likelihood ratio methodology.

Fact And Fiction In FX Arbitrage Processes

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The “quant” workforce in the hedge fund featured in The Fear Index novel by Robert Harris would have little or no reason for their existence in an EMH world. The four currency combinatorial analysis of arbitrage sequences contained in Cross, Kozyakin, O’Callaghan, Pokrovskii and Pokrovskiy (2012) is then considered. Their results suggest that arbitrage processes, rather than being self-extinguishing, tend to be periodic in nature. This helps explain the fact that arbitrage dealing tends to be endemic in FX markets.

On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

Fact And Fictions In FX Arbitrage Processes

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The “quant” workforce in the hedge fund featured in The Fear Index novel by Robert Harris would have little or no reason for their existence in an EMH world. The four currency combinatorial analysis of arbitrage sequences contained in Cross, Kozyakin, O’Callaghan, Pokrovskii and Pokrovskiy (2012) is then considered. Their results suggest that arbitrage processes, rather than being self-extinguishing, tend to be periodic in nature. This helps explain the fact that arbitrage dealing tends to be endemic in FX markets.

Private Governance of Financial Markets: the US Regulatory Regime on Hedge Funds

The article investigates the private governance of financial markets by looking at the evolution of the regulatory debate on hedge funds in the US market. It starts from the premise that the privatization of regulation is always the result of a political decision and analyzes how this decision came about and was implemented in the case of hedge funds. The starting point is the failure of two initiatives on hedge funds that US regulators launched between 1999 an 2004, which the analysis explains by elaborating the concept of self-capture. Facing a trade off between the need to tackle publicly demonized issues and the difficulty of monitoring increasingly sophisticated and powerful private markets, regulators purposefully designed initiatives that were not meant to succeed, that is, they “self-captured” their own activity. By formulating initiatives that were inherently flawed, regulators saved their public role and at the same time paved the way for the privatization of hedge fund regulation. This explanation identifies a link between the failure of public initiatives and the success of private ones. It illustrates a specific case of formation of private authority in financial markets that points to a more general practice emerging in the regulation of finance.

Emotional intelligence: On definitions, neuroscience, and marshmallows

In his timely article, Cherniss offers his vision for the future of "Emotional Intelligence" (EI). However, his goal of clarifying the concept by distinguishing definitions from models and his support for "Emotional and Social Competence" (ESC) models will, in our opinion, not make the field advance. To be upfront, we agree that emotions are important for effective decision-making, leadership, performance and the like; however, at this time, EI and ESC have not yet demonstrated incremental validity over and above IQ and personality tests in meta-analyses (Harms & Credé, 2009; Van Rooy & Viswesvaran, 2004). If there is a future for EI, we see it in the ability model of Mayer, Salovey and associates (e.g, Mayer, Caruso, & Salovey, 2000), which detractors and supporters agree holds the most promise (Antonakis, Ashkanasy, & Dasborough, 2009; Zeidner, Roberts, & Matthews, 2008). With their use of quasi-objective scoring measures, the ability model grounds EI in existing frameworks of intelligence, thus differentiating itself from ESC models and their self-rated trait inventories. In fact, we do not see the value of ESC models: They overlap too much with current personality models to offer anything new for science and practice (Zeidner, et al., 2008). In this commentary we raise three concerns we have with Cherniss's suggestions for ESC models: (1) there are important conceptual problems in both the definition of ESC and the distinction of ESC from EI; (2) Cherniss's interpretation of neuroscience findings as supporting the constructs of EI and ESC is outdated, and (3) his interpretation of the famous marshmallow experiment as indicating the existence of ESCs is flawed. Building on the promise of ability models, we conclude by providing suggestions to improve research in EI.

Validation of the German version of the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale and its relation to orientations to happiness and work stress

Career adapt-ability has recently gained momentum as a psychosocial construct that not only has much to offer the field of career development, but also contributes to positive coping, adjustment and self-regulation through the four dimensions of concern, control, curiosity and confidence. The positive psychology movement, with concepts such as the orientations to happiness, explores the factors that contribute to human flourishing and optimum functioning. This research has two main contributions; 1) to validate a German version of the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale (CAAS), and 2) to extend the contribution of adapt-abilities to the field of work stress and explore its mediating capacity in the relation between orientations to happiness and work stress. We used a representative sample of the German-speaking Swiss working population including 1204 participants (49.8% women), aged between 26 and 56 (Mage = 42.04). Results indicated that the German version of the CAAS is valid, with overall high levels of model fit suggesting that the conceptual structure of career adapt-ability replicates well in this cultural context. Adapt-abilities showed a negative relationship to work stress, and a positive one with orientations to happiness. The engagement and pleasure scales of orientations to happiness also correlated negatively with work stress. Moreover, career adapt-ability mediates the relationship between orientations to happiness and work stress. In depth analysis of the mediating effect revealed that control is the only significant mediator. Thus control may be acting as a mechanism through which individuals attain their desired life at work subsequently contributing to reduced stress levels.

Loss of ability to work and ability to live independently in Parkinson's disease.

OBJECTIVE: Ability to work and live independently is of particular concern for patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). We studied a series of PD patients able to work or live independently at baseline, and evaluated potential risk factors for two separate outcomes: loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. METHODS: The series comprised 495 PD patients followed prospectively. Ability to work and ability to live independently were based on clinical interview and examination. Cox regression models adjusted for age and disease duration were used to evaluate associations of baseline characteristics with loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. RESULTS: Higher UPDRS dyskinesia score, UPDRS instability score, UPDRS total score, Hoehn and Yahr stage, and presence of intellectual impairment at baseline were all associated with increased risk of future loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently (P ≤ 0.0033). Five years after initial visit, for patients ≤70 years of age with a disease duration ≤4 years at initial visit, 88% were still able to work and 90% to live independently. These estimates worsened as age and disease duration at initial visit increased; for patients >70 years of age with a disease duration >4 years, estimates at 5 years were 43% able to work and 57% able to live independently. CONCLUSIONS: The information provided in this study can offer useful information for PD patients in preparing for future ability to perform activities of daily living.