805 resultados para GRANGER CAUSALITY


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[EN]Our study concentrates on the epistemic adverbs used in conveying author stance in academic English. The Contrastive Interlanguage Analysis (Granger, 1996) was run to three sets of corpora comprising doctoral dissertations written by native and non-native academic authors of English. Epistemic adverbs occurring in the dissertations were identified through a computer programme and their frequencies were separately computed for each corpus. Lastly, a log-likelihood test was administered to see whether there is a statistically significant difference across the groups in concern concerning the use of these adverbs.

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This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

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In the collective imaginaries a robot is a human like machine as any androids in science fiction. However the type of robots that you will encounter most frequently are machinery that do work that is too dangerous, boring or onerous. Most of the robots in the world are of this type. They can be found in auto, medical, manufacturing and space industries. Therefore a robot is a system that contains sensors, control systems, manipulators, power supplies and software all working together to perform a task. The development and use of such a system is an active area of research and one of the main problems is the development of interaction skills with the surrounding environment, which include the ability to grasp objects. To perform this task the robot needs to sense the environment and acquire the object informations, physical attributes that may influence a grasp. Humans can solve this grasping problem easily due to their past experiences, that is why many researchers are approaching it from a machine learning perspective finding grasp of an object using information of already known objects. But humans can select the best grasp amongst a vast repertoire not only considering the physical attributes of the object to grasp but even to obtain a certain effect. This is why in our case the study in the area of robot manipulation is focused on grasping and integrating symbolic tasks with data gained through sensors. The learning model is based on Bayesian Network to encode the statistical dependencies between the data collected by the sensors and the symbolic task. This data representation has several advantages. It allows to take into account the uncertainty of the real world, allowing to deal with sensor noise, encodes notion of causality and provides an unified network for learning. Since the network is actually implemented and based on the human expert knowledge, it is very interesting to implement an automated method to learn the structure as in the future more tasks and object features can be introduced and a complex network design based only on human expert knowledge can become unreliable. Since structure learning algorithms presents some weaknesses, the goal of this thesis is to analyze real data used in the network modeled by the human expert, implement a feasible structure learning approach and compare the results with the network designed by the expert in order to possibly enhance it.

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The aim of this work is to carry out an applicative, comparative and exhaustive study between several entropy based indicators of independence and correlation. We considered some indicators characterized by a wide and consolidate literature, like mutual information, joint entropy, relative entropy or Kullback Leibler distance, and others, more recently introduced, like Granger, Maasoumi and racine entropy, also called Sρ, or utilized in more restricted domains, like Pincus approximate entropy or ApEn. We studied the behaviour of such indicators applying them to binary series. The series was designed to simulate a wide range of situations in order to characterize indicators limit and capability and to identify, case by case, the more useful and trustworthy ones. Our target was not only to study if such indicators were able to discriminate between dependence and independence because, especially for mutual information and Granger, Maasoumi and Racine, that was already demonstrated and reported in literature, but also to verify if and how they were able to provide information about structure, complexity and disorder of the series they were applied to. Special attention was paid on Pincus approximate entropy, that is said by the author to be able to provide information regarding the level of randomness, regularity and complexity of a series. By means of a focused and extensive research, we furthermore tried to clear the meaning of ApEn applied to a couple of different series. In such situation the indicator is named in literature as cross-ApEn. The cross-ApEn meaning and the interpretation of its results is often not simple nor univocal and the matter is scarcely delved into by literature, thereby users can easily leaded up to a misleading conclusion, especially if the indicator is employed, as often unfortunately it happens, in uncritical manner. In order to plug some cross-ApEn gaps and limits clearly brought out during the experimentation, we developed and applied to the already considered cases a further indicator we called “correspondence index”. The correspondence index is perfectly integrated into the cross-ApEn computational algorithm and it is able to provide, at least for binary data, accurate information about the intensity and the direction of an eventual correlation, even not linear, existing between two different series allowing, in the meanwhile, to detect an eventual condition of independence between the series themselves.

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Die wichtigsten Bestandteile des Cytoskeletts in pflanzlichen Zellen sind die Actinfilamente und die Mikrotubuli. Die Mikrotubuli spielen in der Organisation und der Morphogenese von pflanzlichen Zellen eine wichtige Rolle. Sie sind zusammen mit den Cellulosefibrillen an der Formgebung der Pflanzenzelle beteiligt. Sie bilden das Präprophaseband, das die Zellteilungsebene bestimmt und die Mitosespindel, die für die Trennung der Chromosomen sorgt, sowie den Phragmoplasten, der die Zellwand zwischen den Tochterzellen bildet. Weiterhin geben die Mikrotubuli durch Interaktion mit den Cellulose-Synthase-Komplexen die Richtung der Zellexpansion vor (GRANGER und CYR, 2001; LLOYD und CHAN, 2002; BASKIN, 2002). Die Mikrotubuli sind auch an der Stabilisierung der Zellform und an Transportprozessen beteiligt. Als Bestandteil der Mikrotubuli-organisierenden Zentren (MTOCs) wurde das γ-Tubulin identifiziert, das sehr wahrscheinlich an der Nukleation der Mikrotubuli beteiligt ist, indem es die Assemblierung der αβ-Tubulindimere zu Mikrotubuli einleitet. In tierischen Zellen ist durch intensive Forschung inzwischen relativ viel über die Funktion von γ-Tubulin, vor allem im Verlauf der Zellteilung bekannt, wie z. B. die Lokalisation in Centrosomen mit ihren paarweise angeordneten Centriolen, die die MTOCs darstellen. In pflanzlichen Zellen sind bisher nur wenige Funktionen des Proteins hinreichend geklärt. Die höheren Pflanzen besitzen keine Centriolen und keine Centrosomen. Über die Zellteilung hinaus gibt es kaum Anhaltspunkte über das Vorhandensein oder eventuelle Aufgaben von γ-Tubulin in expandierenden und voll expandierten Zellkulturen und Pflanzengeweben. In dieser Arbeit wurde die Expression über PCR und die Messung des Proteingehalts von cytoskelett-relevanten Proteinen in den Entwicklungsstadien der Zellsuspensionskultur (BY-2) und von Blattstadien der Tabakpflanze (SR1) von Nicotiana tabacum gemessen. Primäres Ziel war es eine Aussage zu erhalten, in welchem Ausmaß γ-Tubulin in expandierenden und voll expandierten Zellen noch exprimiert wird und ob bzw. wie eine Regulation (transkriptionell oder posttranskriptionell) des γ-Tubulins in der Pflanze stattfindet. Für den Nachweis des γ-Tubulins auf der Proteinebene wurde ein pflanzenspezifischer γ-Tubulin Antikörper zu entwickelt. Bei diesem Antikörper handelte es sich um einen polyklonalen Antikörper, der spezifisch gegen eine Sequenz in pflanzlichem γ-Tubulin gerichtet ist. Dabei zeigte der in der Arbeit entwickelte Antikörper gegen die pflanzliche JOSHI-Domäne spezifische Signale. Der erfolgte Nachweis von γ-Tubulin auf der Proteinebene und der Transkripte zeigte bis in die ältesten untersuchten Stadien der Zellsuspensionskultur (BY-2) und in Geweben der Blattstadien der Tabakpflanze (SR1) deutliche Signale für γ-Tubulin. Es war somit nicht nur in meristematisch aktiven Zellen und Geweben von Nicotiana tabacum, sondern auch in nichtmitotischen Zellen und Geweben vorhanden. Hierbei war über die Phasen der Zellteilung und der Zellformgebung hinweg auf beiden Ebenen eine parallele Entwicklung mit relativ konstanten starken Signalen zu beobachten. Nach dem Einstellen der Teilungsaktivität fiel der Gehalt an mRNA deutlich ab. Dabei nahm die Konzentration des Proteins im Vergleich zur mRNA zeitlich verzögert ab. Diese Ergebnisse bei der Zellsuspensionskultur (BY-2) und Tabakpflanze (SR1) gehen mit der möglichen Nukleationstätigkeit des Proteins konform. Es waren geringere aber doch deutlichen Signale bei Absterbenden Zellen der Zellkultur, bzw. bei expandierenden und voll expandierten und seneszenten Blättern der Tabakpflanze (SR1) nachzuweisen. Dies lässt die Folgerung zu, dass die nachgewiesene mRNA von γ-Tubulin nicht posttranskriptionell reguliert wird, sondern dass das γ-Tubulin auch eine wichtige Rolle außerhalb der Zellteilung in den postmitotischen Stadien, z. B. als organisierender Faktor bei der Umgestaltung oder Stabilisierung des Mikrotubuli-Cytoskeletts, spielt. Der γ-Tubulin-Gehalt in den Geweben der SR1-Pflanze zeigte über die Zellkultur hinaus, dass die Expression von α-Tubulin nach Einstellen der Teilungsaktivität kontinuierlich abnimmt. Dieses Ergebnis legt die Vermutung nahe, dass γ-Tubulin in älteren Blattgeweben zusätzliche Aufgaben übernehmen könnte, die nicht auf eine gleichzeitige Expression von α-Tubulin angewiesen sind. So kann beispielsweise eine Beteiligung von γ-Tubulin an der Stabilisierung der Mikrotubuli, und damit einhergehend eine Abnahme der dynamischen Instabilität dieser Filamente, eine denkbare Funktion des Proteins in expandierendem und voll expandiertem Gewebe sein. Die Aufgaben von γ-Tubulin in sehr altem Gewebe mit deutlichen Anzeichen der Seneszenz können allerdings nach dem derzeitigen Stand der Forschung nicht eindeutig beantwortet werden und bedürfen weitergehenden Untersuchungen, da dadurch ein die Komplexität und die Dynamik des pflanzlichen Cytoskeletts geklärt werden kann.

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In Sub-Saharan Africa, non-democratic events, like civil wars and coup d'etat, destroy economic development. This study investigates both domestic and spatial effects on the likelihood of civil wars and coup d'etat. To civil wars, an increase of income growth is one of common research conclusions to stop wars. This study adds a concern on ethnic fractionalization. IV-2SLS is applied to overcome causality problem. The findings document that income growth is significant to reduce number and degree of violence in high ethnic fractionalized countries, otherwise they are trade-off. Income growth reduces amount of wars, but increases its violent level, in the countries with few large ethnic groups. Promoting growth should consider ethnic composition. This study also investigates the clustering and contagion of civil wars using spatial panel data models. Onset, incidence and end of civil conflicts spread across the network of neighboring countries while peace, the end of conflicts, diffuse only with the nearest neighbor. There is an evidence of indirect links from neighboring income growth, without too much inequality, to reduce the likelihood of civil wars. To coup d'etat, this study revisits its diffusion for both all types of coups and only successful ones. The results find an existence of both domestic and spatial determinants in different periods. Domestic income growth plays major role to reduce the likelihood of coup before cold war ends, while spatial effects do negative afterward. Results on probability to succeed coup are similar. After cold war ends, international organisations seriously promote democracy with pressure against coup d'etat, and it seems to be effective. In sum, this study indicates the role of domestic ethnic fractionalization and the spread of neighboring effects to the likelihood of non-democratic events in a country. Policy implementation should concern these factors.

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White-nose syndrome (WNS) has caused recent catastrophic declines among multiple species of bats in eastern North America1, 2. The disease’s name derives from a visually apparent white growth of the newly discovered fungus Geomyces destructans on the skin (including the muzzle) of hibernating bats1, 3. Colonization of skin by this fungus is associated with characteristic cutaneous lesions that are the only consistent pathological finding related to WNS4. However, the role of G. destructans in WNS remains controversial because evidence to implicate the fungus as the primary cause of this disease is lacking. The debate is fuelled, in part, by the assumption that fungal infections in mammals are most commonly associated with immune system dysfunction5, 6, 7. Additionally, the recent discovery that G. destructans commonly colonizes the skin of bats of Europe, where no unusual bat mortality events have been reported8, 9, 10, has generated further speculation that the fungus is an opportunistic pathogen and that other unidentified factors are the primary cause of WNS11, 12. Here we demonstrate that exposure of healthy little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) to pure cultures of G. destructans causes WNS. Live G. destructans was subsequently cultured from diseased bats, successfully fulfilling established criteria for the determination ofG. destructans as a primary pathogen13. We also confirmed that WNS can be transmitted from infected bats to healthy bats through direct contact. Our results provide the first direct evidence that G. destructans is the causal agent of WNS and that the recent emergence of WNS in North America may represent translocation of the fungus to a region with a naive population of animals8. Demonstration of causality is an instrumental step in elucidating the pathogenesis14 and epidemiology15 of WNS and in guiding management actions to preserve bat populations against the novel threat posed by this devastating infectious disease.

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As the number of solutions to the Einstein equations with realistic matter sources that admit closed time-like curves (CTC's) has grown drastically, it has provoked some authors [10] to call for a physical interpretation of these seemingly exotic curves that could possibly allow for causality violations. A first step in drafting a physical interpretation would be to understand how CTC's are created because the recent work of [16] has suggested that, to follow a CTC, observers must counter-rotate with the rotating matter, contrary to the currently accepted explanation that it is due to inertial frame dragging that CTC's are created. The exact link between inertialframe dragging and CTC's is investigated by simulating particle geodesics and the precession of gyroscopes along CTC's and backward in time oriented circular orbits in the van Stockum metric, known to have CTC's that could be traversal, so the van Stockum cylinder could be exploited as a time machine. This study of gyroscopeprecession, in the van Stockum metric, supports the theory that CTC's are produced by inertial frame dragging due to rotating spacetime metrics.

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Dronedarone restores sinus rhythm and reduces hospitalization or death in intermittent atrial fibrillation. It also lowers heart rate and blood pressure and has antiadrenergic and potential ventricular antiarrhythmic effects. We hypothesized that dronedarone would reduce major vascular events in high-risk permanent atrial fibrillation.

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Cognitive functioning is based on binding processes, by which different features and elements of neurocognition are integrated and coordinated. Binding is an essential ingredient of, for instance, Gestalt perception. We have implemented a paradigm of causality perception based on the work of Albert Michotte, in which 2 identical discs move from opposite sides of a monitor, steadily toward, and then past one another. Their coincidence generates an ambiguous percept of either "streaming" or "bouncing," which the subjects (34 schizophrenia spectrum patients and 34 controls with mean age 27.9 y) were instructed to report. The latter perception is a marker of the binding processes underlying perceived causality (type I binding). In addition to this visual task, acoustic stimuli were presented at different times during the task (150 ms before and after visual coincidence), which can modulate perceived causality. This modulation by intersensory and temporally delayed stimuli is viewed as a different type of binding (type II). We show here, using a mixed-effects hierarchical analysis, that type II binding distinguishes schizophrenia spectrum patients from healthy controls, whereas type I binding does not. Type I binding may even be excessive in some patients, especially those with positive symptoms; Type II binding, however, was generally attenuated in patients. The present findings point to ways in which the disconnection (or Gestalt) hypothesis of schizophrenia can be refined, suggesting more specific markers of neurocognitive functioning and potential targets of treatment.

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The identification of associations between interleukin-28B (IL-28B) variants and the spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) raises the issues of causality and the net contribution of host genetics to the trait. To estimate more precisely the net effect of IL-28B genetic variation on HCV clearance, we optimized genotyping and compared the host contributions in multiple- and single-source cohorts to control for viral and demographic effects. The analysis included individuals with chronic or spontaneously cleared HCV infections from a multiple-source cohort (n = 389) and a single-source cohort (n = 71). We performed detailed genotyping in the coding region of IL-28B and searched for copy number variations to identify the genetic variant or haplotype carrying the strongest association with viral clearance. This analysis was used to compare the effects of IL-28B variation in the two cohorts. Haplotypes characterized by carriage of the major alleles at IL-28B single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were highly overrepresented in individuals with spontaneous clearance versus those with chronic HCV infections (66.1% versus 38.6%, P = 6 × 10(-9) ). The odds ratios for clearance were 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-3.0] and 3.9 (95% CI = 1.5-10.2) in the multiple- and single-source cohorts, respectively. Protective haplotypes were in perfect linkage (r(2) = 1.0) with a nonsynonymous coding variant (rs8103142). Copy number variants were not detected. CONCLUSION: We identified IL-28B haplotypes highly predictive of spontaneous HCV clearance. The high linkage disequilibrium between IL-28B SNPs indicates that association studies need to be complemented by functional experiments to identify single causal variants. The point estimate for the genetic effect was higher in the single-source cohort, which was used to effectively control for viral diversity, sex, and coinfections and, therefore, offered a precise estimate of the net host genetic contribution.

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Canine and human atopic dermatitis are multifaceted diseases whose clinical development may be influenced by several factors, such as genetic background, environment, secondary infections, food and psychological effects. The role of the environment has been extensively examined in humans but remains unclear in dogs. The aim of this study was to examine environmental factors in two genetically close breeds, Labrador and golden retrievers. Using standard criteria, atopic dogs in Switzerland and Germany were selected and compared with healthy individuals. Information on environmental factors was collected using a 46-question survey encompassing date and place of birth, way of life at the breeder's and owner's home, food and treatments. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to assess the association between potential risk factors and disease status. The following parameters were associated with an increased risk of disease development: living in a shed during puppyhood, adoption at the age of 8-12 weeks and washing the dog regularly. In contrast, the following factors were associated with a lower risk: living in a rural environment, living in a household with other animals and walking in a forest. These associations do not prove causality but support the primary hypothesis that certain environmental factors may influence the development of canine atopic dermatitis. Further studies are warranted to confirm these results and conclusions.

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Arachnomelia is a monogenic recessive defect of skeletal development in cattle. The causative mutation was previously mapped to a approximately 7 Mb interval on chromosome 5. Here we show that array-based sequence capture and massively parallel sequencing technology, combined with the typical family structure in livestock populations, facilitates the identification of the causative mutation. We re-sequenced the entire critical interval in a healthy partially inbred cow carrying one copy of the critical chromosome segment in its ancestral state and one copy of the same segment with the arachnomelia mutation, and we detected a single heterozygous position. The genetic makeup of several partially inbred cattle provides extremely strong support for the causality of this mutation. The mutation represents a single base insertion leading to a premature stop codon in the coding sequence of the SUOX gene and is perfectly associated with the arachnomelia phenotype. Our findings suggest an important role for sulfite oxidase in bone development.

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Many meta-analyses of comparative outcome studies found a substantial association of researcher allegiance (RA) and relative treatment effects. Therefore, RA is regarded as a biasing factor in comparative outcome research (RA bias hypothesis). However, the RA bias hypothesis has been criticized as causality might be reversed. That is, RA might be a reflection of true efficacy differences between treatments (true efficacy hypothesis). Consequently, the RA-outcome association would not be indicative of bias but an epiphenomenon of true efficacy differences. This meta-analysis tested the validity of the true efficacy hypothesis. This was done by controlling the RA-outcome association for true efficacy differences by restricting analysis to direct comparisons of treatments with equivalent efficacy. We included direct comparisons of different versions of trauma-focused therapy (TFT) in the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). RA was measured from the research reports. Relative effect sizes for symptoms of PTSD were calculated. Random effects meta-regression was conducted. Twenty-nine comparisons of TFTs from 20 studies were identified. Initial heterogeneity among relative effect sizes was low. RA was a significant predictor of outcome and explained 12% of the variance in outcomes. The true efficacy hypothesis predicted the RA-outcome association to be zero; however, a substantial association was found. Thus, this study does not support the true efficacy hypothesis. Given findings from psychotherapy research and other fields that support a biasing influence of researcher preferences, RA should be regarded as a causal factor and conceptualized as a threat to the validity of conclusions from comparative outcome studies.