998 resultados para Forecast methods


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Six models (Simulators) are formulated and developed with all possible combinations of pressure and saturation of the phases as primary variables. A comparative study between six simulators with two numerical methods, conventional simultaneous and modified sequential methods are carried out. The results of the numerical models are compared with the laboratory experimental results to study the accuracy of the model especially in heterogeneous porous media. From the study it is observed that the simulator using pressure and saturation of the wetting fluid (PW, SW formulation) is the best among the models tested. Many simulators with nonwetting phase as one of the primary variables did not converge when used along with simultaneous method. Based on simulator 1 (PW, SW formulation), a comparison of different solution methods such as simultaneous method, modified sequential and adaptive solution modified sequential method are carried out on 4 test problems including heterogeneous and randomly heterogeneous problems. It is found that the modified sequential and adaptive solution modified sequential methods could save the memory by half and as also the CPU time required by these methods is very less when compared with that using simultaneous method. It is also found that the simulator with PNW and PW as the primary variable which had problem of convergence using the simultaneous method, converged using both the modified sequential method and also using adaptive solution modified sequential method. The present study indicates that pressure and saturation formulation along with adaptive solution modified sequential method is the best among the different simulators and methods tested.

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In order to evaluate the influence of ambient aerosol particles on cloud formation, climate and human health, detailed information about the concentration and composition of ambient aerosol particles is needed. The dura-tion of aerosol formation, growth and removal processes in the atmosphere range from minutes to hours, which highlights the need for high-time-resolution data in order to understand the underlying processes. This thesis focuses on characterization of ambient levels, size distributions and sources of water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) in ambient aerosols. The results show that in the location of this study typically 50-60 % of organic carbon in fine particles is water-soluble. The amount of WSOC was observed to increase as aerosols age, likely due to further oxidation of organic compounds. In the boreal region the main sources of WSOC were biomass burning during the winter and secondary aerosol formation during the summer. WSOC was mainly attributed to a fine particle mode between 0.1 - 1 μm, although different size distributions were measured for different sources. The WSOC concentrations and size distributions had a clear seasonal variation. Another main focus of this thesis was to test and further develop the high-time-resolution methods for chemical characterization of ambient aerosol particles. The concentrations of the main chemical components (ions, OC, EC) of ambient aerosol particles were measured online during a year-long intensive measurement campaign conducted on the SMEAR III station in Southern Finland. The results were compared to the results of traditional filter collections in order to study sampling artifacts and limitations related to each method. To achieve better a time resolution for the WSOC and ion measurements, a particle-into-liquid sampler (PILS) was coupled with a total organic carbon analyzer (TOC) and two ion chromatographs (IC). The PILS-TOC-IC provided important data about diurnal variations and short-time plumes, which cannot be resolved from the filter samples. In summary, the measurements made for this thesis provide new information on the concentrations, size distribu-tions and sources of WSOC in ambient aerosol particles in the boreal region. The analytical and collection me-thods needed for the online characterization of aerosol chemical composition were further developed in order to provide more reliable high-time-resolution measurements.

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Positron emission tomography (PET) is a molecular imaging technique that utilises radiopharmaceuticals (radiotracers) labelled with a positron-emitting radionuclide, such as fluorine-18 (18F). Development of a new radiotracer requires an appropriate radiosynthesis method: the most common of which with 18F is nucleophilic substitution with [18F]fluoride ion. The success of the labelling reaction is dependent on various factors such as the reactivity of [18F]fluoride, the structure of the target compound in addition to the chosen solvent. The overall radiosynthesis procedure must be optimised in terms of radiochemical yield and quality of the final product. Therefore, both quantitative and qualitative radioanalytical methods are essential in developing radiosynthesis methods. Furthermore, biological properties of the tracer candidate need to be evaluated by various pre-clinical studies in animal models. In this work, the feasibility of various nucleophilic 18F-fluorination strategies were studied and a labelling method for a novel radiotracer, N-3-[18F]fluoropropyl-2beta-carbomethoxy-3beta-4-fluorophenyl)nortropane ([18F]beta-CFT-FP), was optimised. The effect of solvent was studied by labelling a series of model compounds, 4-(R1-methyl)benzyl R2-benzoates. 18F-Fluorination reactions were carried out both in polar aprotic and protic solvents (tertiary alcohols). Assessment of the 18F-fluorinated products was studied by mass spectrometry (MS) in addition to conventional radiochromatographic methods, using radiosynthesis of 4-[18F]fluoro-N-[2-[1-(2-methoxyphenyl)-1-piperazinyl]ethyl-N-2-pyridinyl-benzamide (p-[18F]MPPF) as a model reaction. Labelling of [18F]beta-CFT-FP was studied using two 18F-fluoroalkylation reagents, [18F]fluoropropyl bromide and [18F]fluoropropyl tosylate, as well as by direct 18F-fluorination of sulfonate ester precursor. Subsequently, the suitability of [18F]beta-CFT-FP for imaging dopamine transporter (DAT) was evaluated by determining its biodistribution in rats. The results showed that protic solvents can be useful co-solvents in aliphatic 18F-fluorinations, especially in the labelling of sulfonate esters. Aromatic 18F-fluorination was not promoted in tert-alcohols. Sensitivity of the ion trap MS was sufficient for the qualitative analysis of the 18F-labelled products; p-[18F]MPPF was identified from the isolated product fraction with a mass-to-charge (m/z) ratio of 435 (i.e. protonated molecule [M+H]+). [18F]beta-CFT-FP was produced most efficiently via [18F]fluoropropyl tosylate, leading to sufficient radiochemical yield and specific radioactivity for PET studies. The ex vivo studies in rats showed fast kinetics as well as the specific uptake of [18F]beta-CFT-FP to the DAT rich brain regions. Thus, it was concluded that [18F]beta-CFT-FP has potential as a radiotracer for imaging DAT by PET.

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Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Streptococcus pneumoniae are major health problems worldwide, both found in symptomless carriage but also causing even life-threatening infections. The aim of this thesis was to characterise MRSA and S. pneumoniae in detail by using several molecular typing methods for various epidemiological purposes: clonality analysis, epidemiological surveillance, outbreak investigation, and virulence factor analysis. The characteristics of MRSA isolates from the strain collection of the Finnish National Infectious Disease Register (NIDR) and pneumococcal isolates collected from military recruits and children with acute otitis media (AOM) were analysed using various typing techniques. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), multilocus sequence typing (MLST), spa typing, staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) typing, and the detection of Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) genes were performed for MRSA isolates. Pneumococcal isolates were analysed using antimicrobial susceptibility testing, serotyping, MLST, and by detecting pilus islet 1 (PI-1) and 2 (PI-2) genes. Several international community- and hospital-associated MRSA clones were recognised in Finland. The genetic diversity among MRSA FIN-4 isolates and among FIN-16 isolates was low. Overall, MRSA blood isolates from 1997 to 2006 were genetically diverse. spa typing was found to be a highly discriminatory, rapid and accurate typing method and it also qualifies as the primary typing method in countries with a long history of PFGE-based MRSA strain nomenclature. However, additional typing by another method, e.g. PFGE, is needed in certain situations to be able to provide adequate discrimination for epidemiological surveillance and outbreak investigation. An outbreak of pneumonia was associated with one pneumococcal strain among military recruits, previously healthy young men living in a crowded setting. The pneumococcal carriage rate after the outbreak was found to be exceptionally high. PI-1 genes were detected at a rather low prevalence among pneumococcal isolates from children with AOM. However, the study demonstrated that PI-1 has existed among pneumococcal isolates prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and the increased antimicrobial resistance era. Moreover, PI-1 was found to associate with the serotype rather than the genotype. This study adds to our understanding of the molecular epidemiology of MRSA strains in Finland and the importance of an appropriate genotyping method to be able to perform high-level laboratory-based surveillance of MRSA. Epidemiological and molecular analyses of S. pneumoniae add to our knowledge of the characteristics of pneumococcal strains in Finland.

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NDDO-based (AM1) configuration interaction (CI) calculations have been used to calculate the wavelength and oscillator strengths of electronic absorptions in organic molecules and the results used in a sum-over-states treatment to calculate second-order-hyperpolarizabilities. The results for both spectra and hyperpolarizabilities are of acceptable quality as long as a suitable CI-expansion is used. We have found that using an active space of eight electrons in eight orbitals and including all single and pair-double excitations in the CI leads to results that agree well with experiment and that do not change significantly with increasing active space for most organic molecules. Calculated second-order hyperpolarizabilities using this type of CI within a sum-over-states calculation appear to be of useful accuracy.

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Finite-state methods have been adopted widely in computational morphology and related linguistic applications. To enable efficient development of finite-state based linguistic descriptions, these methods should be a freely available resource for academic language research and the language technology industry. The following needs can be identified: (i) a registry that maps the existing approaches, implementations and descriptions, (ii) managing the incompatibilities of the existing tools, (iii) increasing synergy and complementary functionality of the tools, (iv) persistent availability of the tools used to manipulate the archived descriptions, (v) an archive for free finite-state based tools and linguistic descriptions. Addressing these challenges contributes to building a common research infrastructure for advanced language technology.

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Graphenes with varying number of layers can be synthesized by using different strategies. Thus, single-layer graphene is prepared by micromechanical cleavage, reduction of single-layer graphene oxide, chemical vapor deposition and other methods. Few-layer graphenes are synthesized by conversion of nanodiamond, arc discharge of graphite and other methods. In this article, we briefly overview the various synthetic methods and the surface, magnetic and electrical properties of the produced graphenes. Few-layer graphenes exhibit ferromagnetic features along with antiferromagnetic properties, independent of the method of preparation. Aside from the data on electrical conductivity of graphenes and graphene-polymer composites, we also present the field-effect transistor characteristics of graphenes. Only single-layer reduced graphene oxide exhibits ambipolar properties. The interaction of electron donor and acceptor molecules with few-layer graphene samples is examined in detail.

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The effect of using a spatially smoothed forward-backward covariance matrix on the performance of weighted eigen-based state space methods/ESPRIT, and weighted MUSIC for direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation is analyzed. Expressions for the mean-squared error in the estimates of the signal zeros and the DOA estimates, along with some general properties of the estimates and optimal weighting matrices, are derived. A key result is that optimally weighted MUSIC and weighted state-space methods/ESPRIT have identical asymptotic performance. Moreover, by properly choosing the number of subarrays, the performance of unweighted state space methods can be significantly improved. It is also shown that the mean-squared error in the DOA estimates is independent of the exact distribution of the source amplitudes. This results in a unified framework for dealing with DOA estimation using a uniformly spaced linear sensor array and the time series frequency estimation problems.

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In the direction of arrival (DOA) estimation problem, we encounter both finite data and insufficient knowledge of array characterization. It is therefore important to study how subspace-based methods perform in such conditions. We analyze the finite data performance of the multiple signal classification (MUSIC) and minimum norm (min. norm) methods in the presence of sensor gain and phase errors, and derive expressions for the mean square error (MSE) in the DOA estimates. These expressions are first derived assuming an arbitrary array and then simplified for the special case of an uniform linear array with isotropic sensors. When they are further simplified for the case of finite data only and sensor errors only, they reduce to the recent results given in [9-12]. Computer simulations are used to verify the closeness between the predicted and simulated values of the MSE.

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A new throttling system far SI engines is examined. The SMD of the fuel droplets in the induction system is measured to evaluate the performance of the new device with respect to the conventional throttle plate arrangement. The measurements are conducted at steady now conditions. A forward angular scattering technique with a He-Ne laser beam is used for droplet size measurement. The experiments are carried out with different mixture strength, stream velocity and throttle positions. It is observed that A/F ratio has no effect on SMD. However, stream velocity and throttle position have a significant influence on SMD. The new throttling method is found to be more effective in reducing the SMD, particularly at low throttle opening and high stream velocity compared to the conventional throttle plate.

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The magnitude and stability of the induced dipolar orientation of 2-methyl-4-nitroaniline (MNA)/poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) guest/host system is investigated. The chromophores are aligned using both the corona discharge and contact electrode poling techniques. The magnitude of order parameter (also an indicator for the second order nonlinear susceptibility) is measured by recording absorbances of the poled (by the two different techniques) and unpoled PMMA films at different concentrations of MNA. Under the same conditions the corona poling technique creates a higher alignment of molecules along the field direction. The time dependence of the second harmonic intensity of the MNA/PMMA film prepared by the two techniques can be described by a Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts stretched exponential. The temperature dependence of the decay time constant is found to generally follow a modified Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) or Vogel-Tamann-Fulcher (VTF) equation. The glass transition temperature seems to be the single most important parameter for determining the relaxation time tau(T).

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Floquet analysis is widely used for small-order systems (say, order M < 100) to find trim results of control inputs and periodic responses, and stability results of damping levels and frequencies, Presently, however, it is practical neither for design applications nor for comprehensive analysis models that lead to large systems (M > 100); the run time on a sequential computer is simply prohibitive, Accordingly, a massively parallel Floquet analysis is developed with emphasis on large systems, and it is implemented on two SIMD or single-instruction, multiple-data computers with 4096 and 8192 processors, The focus of this development is a parallel shooting method with damped Newton iteration to generate trim results; the Floquet transition matrix (FTM) comes out as a byproduct, The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the FTM are computed by a parallel QR method, and thereby stability results are generated, For illustration, flap and flap-lag stability of isolated rotors are treated by the parallel analysis and by a corresponding sequential analysis with the conventional shooting and QR methods; linear quasisteady airfoil aerodynamics and a finite-state three-dimensional wake model are used, Computational reliability is quantified by the condition numbers of the Jacobian matrices in Newton iteration, the condition numbers of the eigenvalues and the residual errors of the eigenpairs, and reliability figures are comparable in both the parallel and sequential analyses, Compared to the sequential analysis, the parallel analysis reduces the run time of large systems dramatically, and the reduction increases with increasing system order; this finding offers considerable promise for design and comprehensive-analysis applications.

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The various techniques available for the analysis of nonlinear systems subjected to random excitations are briefly introduced and an overview of the progress which has been made in this area of research is presented. The discussion is mainly focused on the basis, scope and limitations of the solution techniques and not on specific applications.