Catalogue de tableaux modernes... / [expert] Bernheim-jeune

[Vente. Art. 1885-05-18. Paris]

Development and Implementation of an Expert System for Forecasting Fog on US Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, HR-357, 1996

Several accidents, some involving fatalities, have occurred on U.S. Highway 30 near the Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Corn Sweeteners plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A contributing factor to many of these accidents has been the large amounts of water (vapor and liquid) emitted from multiple sources at ADM's facility located along the south side of the highway. Weather and road closure data acquired from IDOT have been used to develop a database of meteorological conditions preceding and accompanying closure of Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids. An expert system and a FORTRAN program were developed as aids in decision making with regard to closure of Highway 30 near the plant. The computer programs were used for testing, evaluation, and final deployment. Reports indicate the decision tools have been successfully implemented and were judged to be helpful in forecasting road closures and in reducing costs and personnel time in monitoring the roadway.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Catalogue d'estampes anciennes et modernes... du cabinet de M. F. F... [Francis Foster] / [expert] Defer

[Vente. Estampes. 1858-01-18 - 1858-01-20. Paris]

Adapting football to the child: an application of the logistic regression model in observational mewthodology.

Logistic regression is included into the analysis techniques which are valid for observationalmethodology. However, its presence at the heart of thismethodology, and more specifically in physical activity and sports studies, is scarce. With a view to highlighting the possibilities this technique offers within the scope of observational methodology applied to physical activity and sports, an application of the logistic regression model is presented. The model is applied in the context of an observational design which aims to determine, from the analysis of use of the playing area, which football discipline (7 a side football, 9 a side football or 11 a side football) is best adapted to the child"s possibilities. A multiple logistic regression model can provide an effective prognosis regarding the probability of a move being successful (reaching the opposing goal area) depending on the sector in which the move commenced and the football discipline which is being played.

Appropriateness of therapy for active Crohn's disease: results of a multidisciplinary International Expert Panel (EPACT II)

Introduction: The development of novel therapies and the increasing number of trials testing management strategies for luminal Crohn's disease (CD) have not filled all the gaps in our knowledge. Thus, in clinical practice, many decisions for CD patients need to be taken without high quality evidence. For this reason, a multidisciplinary European expert panel followed the RAND method to develop explicit criteria for the management of individual patients with active, steroid-dependent (ST-D) and steroid-refractory (ST-R) CD. Methods: Twelve international experts convened in Geneva, Switzerland in December 2007, to rate explicit clinical scenarios, corresponding to real daily practice, on a 9-point scale according to the literature evidence and their own expertise. Median ratings were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6) and inappropriate (1-3). Results: Overall, panelists rated 296 indications pertaining to mild-to-moderate, severe, ST-D, and ST-R CD. In anti-TNF naïve patients, budesonide and prednisone were found appropriate for mildmoderate CD, and infliximab (IFX) when those had previously failed or had not been tolerated. In patients with prior success with IFX, this drug with or without co-administration of a thiopurine analog was favored. Other anti-TNFs were appropriate in case of intolerance or resistance to IFX. High doses steroids, IFX or adalimumab were appropriate in severe active CD. Among 105 indications for ST-D or ST-R disease, the panel considered appropriate the thiopurine analogs, methotrexate, IFX, adalimumab and surgery for limited resection, depending on the outcome of prior therapies. Anti-TNFs were generally considered appropriate in ST-R. Conclusion: Steroids, including budesonide for mild-to-moderate CD, remain first-line therapies in active luminal CD. Anti-TNFs, in particular IFX with respect to the amount of available evidence, remain second-line for most indications. Thiopurine analogs are preferred to anti-TNFs when steroids are not appropriate, except when anti-TNFs were previously successful. These recommendations are available online (www.epact.ch). A prospective evaluation of these criteria in a large database in Switzerland in underway to validate these criteria.

The INTERNORM Project: Bridging Two Worlds of Expert- and Lay-Knowledge in Standardization

This paper presents a pilot project to reinforce participatory practices in standardization. The INTERNORM project creates an interactive knowledge center based on the sharing of academic skills and experiences accumulated by the civil society, especially consumer associations, environmental associations and trade unions to strengthen the participatory process of standardization. The first objective of the project is action-oriented: INTERNORM provides a common knowledge pool supporting the participation of civil society actors to international standard-setting activities by bringing them together with academic experts in working groups and providing logistic and financial support to their participation in meetings of national and international technical committees. The second objective is analytical: the standardization action provides a research field for a better understanding of the participatory dynamics underpinning international standardization. This paper presents three incentives that explain civil society (non-)involvement in standardization that overcome conventional resource-based hypotheses: an operational incentive related to the use of standards in the selective goods provided by associations to their membership; a thematic incentive provided by the setting of priorities by strategic committees created in some standardization organization; and a rhetorical incentive related to the discursive resource that civil society concerns offers to the different stakeholders.

Compliance with the Swiss Society for Nutrition's dietary recommendations in the population of Geneva, Switzerland: a 10-year trend study (1999-2009).

The trends in compliance with the dietary recommendations of the Swiss Society for Nutrition in the Geneva population were assessed for the period from 1999 to 2009 using 10 cross-sectional, population-based surveys (Bus Santé study) with a total of 9,320 participants aged 35 to 75 years (50% women). Dietary intake was assessed using a self-administered, validated, semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Trends were assessed by logistic regression adjusting for age, smoking status, education, and nationality using survey year as the independent variable. After excluding participants with extreme intakes, the percentage of participants with a cholesterol intake of <300 mg/day increased from 40.8% in 1999 to 43.6% in 2009 for men (multivariate-adjusted P for trend=0.04) and from 57.8% to 61.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend=0.06). Calcium intake >1 g/day decreased from 53.3% to 46% in men and from 47.6% to 40.7% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend<0.001). Adequate iron intake decreased from 68.3% to 65.3% in men and from 13.3% to 8.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend<0.001). Conversely, no significant changes were observed for carbohydrates, protein, total fat (including saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), fiber, and vitamins D and A. We conclude that the quality of the Swiss diet did not improve between 1999 and 2009 and that intakes deviate substantially from expert recommendations for health promotion and chronic disease risk reduction.

Critères intervenant dans le choix de l'expert judiciaire, psychiatre ou psychologue, en France

Cet article interroge les critères de choix d'un expert judiciaire par les magistrats en charge d'un dossier, à partir d'une étude empirique. Après un détour par l'international afin de spécifier les positions de ces deux acteurs sur la scène judiciaire française, les principaux critères sont décrits. Parmi eux, la célérité , la confiance, la spécialité ou la discipline démontrent que le choix de l'expert s'effectue selon plusieurs dimensions, procédurales bien sûr, mais aussi axiologiques, d'une part, et expérientielles, d'autre part. Cop. 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS.

The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients.

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.

L'argument d'autorité : de sa structure à ses effets

L'argument d'autorité, schème argumentatif fréquent et occupant une place de choix dans toutes les typologies de types d'argument, est ici revu à l'aune des définitions qu'on lui donne. Partant d'une définition classique articulant une proposition P, un locuteur expert X et la conclusion Q «P est vrai», notre analyse suggère que la conclusion de l'argument d'autorité est moins une question de vérité que d'indubitabilité postulée. Cette force rhétorique de l'argument présenté, qui agit comme si toute mise en doute était exclue, est d'autant plus prégnante que la structure même de l'argument d'autorité ne permet pas de mettre en discussion le propos autorisé. En effet, l'immense majorité des exemples d'argument d'autorité dans les manuels d'argumentation montre que l'autorité est assurée au niveau d'une prémisse au sein d'une argumentation d'un autre type, ce qui sert la tentative d'imposer P à l'allocutaire comme allant de soi. Sans considérer le schème comme un sophisme, nous observerons s'il reste un schème identifiable en tant qu'argument d'autorité quand on lui retire les constituants classiques de ce type d'argumentation. Que se passe-t-il si l'expert cité n'est pas présenté comme tel ? Si le locuteur ne prend pas en charge le contenu référentiel de P ? Si P est un fait attesté par un expert et non une opinion ? Si, enfin, le locuteur compte sur sa propre autorité ou présuppose son autorité sans recourir à un tiers expert ou témoin ? Nous interrogeons ces différentes perspectives sur la base d'exemples tirés de la presse écrite, en insistant sur les effets rhétoriques de ce schème plutôt atypique dans son fonctionnement et en montrant l'importance de la modalité épistémique dans l'assertion autoritaire dont le schème de l'argument d'autorité serait une sous-catégorie.