Critical clusters and efficient dynamics for frustrated spin models

A general method to find, in a systematic way, efficient Monte Carlo cluster dynamics among the avast class of dynamics introduced by Kandel et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 65, 941 (1990)] is proposed. The method is successfully applied to a class of frustrated two-dimensional Ising systems. In the case of the fully frustrated model, we also find the intriguing result that critical clusters consist of self-avoiding walk at the theta point.

Estimation of the correlation structure of crustal velocity heterogeneity from seismic reflection data

Numerous sources of evidence point to the fact that heterogeneity within the Earth's deep crystalline crust is complex and hence may be best described through stochastic rather than deterministic approaches. As seismic reflection imaging arguably offers the best means of sampling deep crustal rocks in situ, much interest has been expressed in using such data to characterize the stochastic nature of crustal heterogeneity. Previous work on this problem has shown that the spatial statistics of seismic reflection data are indeed related to those of the underlying heterogeneous seismic velocity distribution. As of yet, however, the nature of this relationship has remained elusive due to the fact that most of the work was either strictly empirical or based on incorrect methodological approaches. Here, we introduce a conceptual model, based on the assumption of weak scattering, that allows us to quantitatively link the second-order statistics of a 2-D seismic velocity distribution with those of the corresponding processed and depth-migrated seismic reflection image. We then perform a sensitivity study in order to investigate what information regarding the stochastic model parameters describing crustal velocity heterogeneity might potentially be recovered from the statistics of a seismic reflection image using this model. Finally, we present a Monte Carlo inversion strategy to estimate these parameters and we show examples of its application at two different source frequencies and using two different sets of prior information. Our results indicate that the inverse problem is inherently non-unique and that many different combinations of the vertical and lateral correlation lengths describing the velocity heterogeneity can yield seismic images with the same 2-D autocorrelation structure. The ratio of all of these possible combinations of vertical and lateral correlation lengths, however, remains roughly constant which indicates that, without additional prior information, the aspect ratio is the only parameter describing the stochastic seismic velocity structure that can be reliably recovered.

Bio-electrical impedance analysis for estimation of fat-free mass and muscle mass in cystic fibrosis patients.

The nutritional status of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients has to be regularly evaluated and alimentary support instituted when indicated. Bio-electrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a recent method for determining body composition. The present study evaluates its use in CF patients without any clinical sign of malnutrition. Thirty-nine patients with CF and 39 healthy subjects aged 6-24 years were studied. Body density and mid-arm muscle circumference were determined by anthropometry and skinfold measurements. Fat-free mass was calculated taking into account the body density. Muscle mass was obtained from the urinary creatinine excretion rate. The resistance index was calculated by dividing the square of the subject's height by the body impedance. We show that fat-free mass, mid-arm muscle circumference and muscle mass are each linearly correlated to the resistance index and that the regression equations are similar for both CF patients and healthy subjects.

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

Osteoporotic fracture risk in elderly women: estimation with quantitative heel US and clinical risk factors

PURPOSE: To derive a prediction rule by using prospectively obtained clinical and bone ultrasonographic (US) data to identify elderly women at risk for osteoporotic fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was approved by the Swiss Ethics Committee. A prediction rule was computed by using data from a 3-year prospective multicenter study to assess the predictive value of heel-bone quantitative US in 6174 Swiss women aged 70-85 years. A quantitative US device to calculate the stiffness index at the heel was used. Baseline characteristics, known risk factors for osteoporosis and fall, and the quantitative US stiffness index were used to elaborate a predictive rule for osteoporotic fracture. Predictive values were determined by using a univariate Cox model and were adjusted with multivariate analysis. RESULTS: There were five risk factors for the incidence of osteoporotic fracture: older age (>75 years) (P < .001), low heel quantitative US stiffness index (<78%) (P < .001), history of fracture (P = .001), recent fall (P = .001), and a failed chair test (P = .029). The score points assigned to these risk factors were as follows: age, 2 (3 if age > 80 years); low quantitative US stiffness index, 5 (7.5 if stiffness index < 60%); history of fracture, 1; recent fall, 1.5; and failed chair test, 1. The cutoff value to obtain a high sensitivity (90%) was 4.5. With this cutoff, 1464 women were at lower risk (score, <4.5) and 4710 were at higher risk (score, >or=4.5) for fracture. Among the higher-risk women, 6.1% had an osteoporotic fracture, versus 1.8% of women at lower risk. Among the women who had a hip fracture, 90% were in the higher-risk group. CONCLUSION: A prediction rule obtained by using quantitative US stiffness index and four clinical risk factors helped discriminate, with high sensitivity, women at higher versus those at lower risk for osteoporotic fracture.

Validation of a wrist monitor for accurate estimation of RR intervals during sleep.

While the incidence of sleep disorders is continuously increasing in western societies, there is a clear demand for technologies to asses sleep-related parameters in ambulatory scenarios. The present study introduces a novel concept of accurate sensor to measure RR intervals via the analysis of photo-plethysmographic signals recorded at the wrist. In a cohort of 26 subjects undergoing full night polysomnography, the wrist device provided RR interval estimates in agreement with RR intervals as measured from standard electrocardiographic time series. The study showed an overall agreement between both approaches of 0.05 ± 18 ms. The novel wrist sensor opens the door towards a new generation of comfortable and easy-to-use sleep monitors.

Whole-rat protein content estimation: applicability of the Nx6.25 factor

The amino acid composition of the protein from three strains of rat (Wistar, Zucker lean and Zucker obese), subjected to reference and high-fat diets has been used to determine the mean empirical formula, molecular weight and N content of whole-rat protein. The combined whole protein of the rat was uniform for the six experimental groups, containing an estimate of 17.3% N and a mean aminoacyl residue molecular weight of 103.7. This suggests that the appropriate protein factor for the calculation of rat protein from its N content should be 5.77 instead of the classical 6.25. In addition, an estimate of the size of the non-protein N mass in the whole rat gave a figure in the range of 5.5 % of all N. The combination of the two calculations gives a protein factor of 5.5 for the conversion of total N into rat protein.

CPT-11 and concomitant hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy induce efficient local control in rectal cancer patients: results from a phase II.

Patients with rectal cancer are at high risk of disease recurrence despite neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy with 5-Fluorouracil (5FU), a regimen that is now widely applied. In order to develop a regimen with increased antitumour activity, we previously established the recommended dose of neoadjuvant CPT-11 (three times weekly 90 mg m(-2)) concomitant to hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy (HART) followed by surgery within 1 week. Thirty-three patients (20 men) with a locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the rectum were enrolled in this prospective phase II trial (1 cT2, 29 cT3, 3 cT4 and 21 cN+). Median age was 60 years (range 43-75 years). All patients received all three injections of CPT-11 and all but two patients completed radiotherapy as planned. Surgery with total mesorectal excision (TME) was performed within 1 week (range 2-15 days). The preoperative chemoradiotherapy was overall well tolerated, 24% of the patients experienced grade 3 diarrhoea that was easily manageable. At a median follow-up of 2 years no local recurrence occurred, however, nine patients developed distant metastases. The 2-year disease-free survival was 66% (95% confidence interval 0.48-0.83). Neoadjuvant CPT-11 and HART allow for excellent local control; however, distant relapse remains a concern in this patient population.

CpG are efficient adjuvants for specific CTL induction against tumor antigen-derived peptide.

The identification of CTL-defined tumor-associated Ags has allowed the development of new strategies for cancer immunotherapy. To potentiate the CTL responses, peptide-based vaccines require the coadministration of adjuvants. Because oligodeoxynucleotides (ODN) containing CpG motifs are strong immunostimulators, we analyzed the ability of CpG ODN to act as adjuvant of the CTL response against tumor-derived synthetic peptide in the absence or presence of IFA. Mice transgenic for a chimeric MHC class I molecule were immunized with a peptide analog of MART-1/Melan-A(26-35) in the presence of CpG ODN alone or CpG ODN emulsified in IFA. The CTL response was monitored ex vivo by tetramer staining of lymphocytes. In blood, spleen, and lymph nodes, peptide mixed with CpG ODN alone was able to elicit a stronger systemic CTL response as compared with peptide emulsified in IFA. Moreover, CpG ODN in combination with IFA further enhanced the CTL response in terms of the frequency of tetramer+CD8+ T cells ex vivo. The CTL induced in vivo against peptide analog in the presence of CpG ODN are functional, as they were able to recognize and kill melanoma cells in vitro. Overall, these results indicate that CpG ODN by itself is a good candidate adjuvant of CTL response and can also enhance the effect of classical adjuvant.

Is ultracision knife safe and efficient for breast capsulectomy? A preliminary study.

BACKGROUND: Silicone breast implants are used to a wide extent in the field of plastic surgery. However, capsular contracture remains a considerable concern. This study aimed to analyze the effectiveness and applicability of an ultracision knife for capsulectomy breast surgery. METHODS: A prospective, single-center, randomized study was performed in 2009. The inclusion criteria specified female patients 20-80 years of age with capsular contracture (Baker 3-4). Ventral capsulectomy was performed using an ultracision knife on one side and the conventional Metzenbaum-type scissors and surgical knife on the collateral side of the breast. Measurements of the resected capsular ventral fragment, operative time, remaining breast tissue, drainage time, seroma and hematoma formation, visual analog scale pain score, and sensory function of the nipple-areola complex were assessed. In addition, histologic analysis of the resected capsule was performed. RESULTS: Five patients (median age, 59.2 years) were included in this study with a mean follow-up period of 6 months. Three patients had Baker grade 3 capsular contracture, and two patients had Baker grade 4 capsular contracture. The ultracision knife was associated with a significantly lower pain score, shorter operative time, smaller drainage volume, and shorter drainage time and resulted in a larger amount of remaining breast tissue. Histologic analysis of the resected capsule showed no apoptotic cells in the study group or control group. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that ventral capsulectomy with Baker grade 3 or 4 contracture using the ultracision knife is feasible, safe, and more efficient than blunt dissection and monopolar cutting diathermy and has a short learning curve. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE II: This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors at www.springer.com/00266 .

Immediate hip spica is as effective as, but more efficient than, flexible intramedullary nailing for femoral shaft fractures in pre-school children.

Flexible intramedullary nailing (FIN) is the gold standard treatment for femur fracture in school-aged children. It has been performed successfully in younger children, although Spica cast immobilisation (SCI) has been the most widely used strategy to date. METHOD: A retrospective analysis was performed between two comparable groups of children aged 1-4 years with a femoral shaft fracture. Two University hospitals, each using specific treatment guidelines, participated in the study: SCI in Group I (Basel, Switzerland) and FIN in Group II (Lausanne, Switzerland). RESULTS: Group I included 19 children with a median age of 26 months (range 12-46 months). Median hospital stay was 1 day (range 0-5 days) and casts were retained for a median duration of 21 days (range 12-29 days). General anaesthesia was used in six children and sedation in four. Skin breakdown secondary to cast irritation occurred in two children (10.5%). The median follow-up was 114 months (range 37-171 months). No significant malunion was noted. Group II included 27 children with a median age of 38.4 months (range 18.7-46.7 months). Median hospital stay was 4 days (range 1-13 days). All children required general anaesthesia for insertion and removal of the nails. Free mobilisation and full weight bearing were allowed at a median of 2 days (range 1-10 days) and 7 days (range 1-30 days), respectively, postoperatively. Nail exteriorisation was noted in three children (11%). The median follow-up was 16.5 months (range 8-172 months). No significant malunion was reported. CONCLUSIONS: Young children with a femoral shaft fracture treated by SCI or FIN had similarly favourable outcomes and complication rates. FIN allowed earlier mobilisation and full weight bearing. Compared to SCI, a greater number of children required general anaesthesia. In a pre-school child with a femoral shaft fracture, immediate SCI applied by a paediatric orthopaedic team following specific guidelines allowed early discharge from hospital with few complications.

Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statins in primary prevention comparing different strategies

Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10-year CHD risk. It is unclear which risk algorithm and guidelines should be used in European populations. Using data from a population-based study in Switzerland, we first assessed 10-year CHD risk and eligibility for statins in 5,683 women and men 35 to 75 years of age without cardiovascular disease by comparing recommendations by the European Society of Cardiology without and with extrapolation of risk to age 60 years, the International Atherosclerosis Society, and the US Adult Treatment Panel III. The proportions of participants classified as high-risk for CHD were 12.5% (15.4% with extrapolation), 3.0%, and 5.8%, respectively. Proportions of participants eligible for statins were 9.2% (11.6% with extrapolation), 13.7%, and 16.7%, respectively. Assuming full compliance to each guideline, expected relative decreases in CHD deaths in Switzerland over a 10-year period would be 16.4% (17.5% with extrapolation), 18.7%, and 19.3%, respectively; the corresponding numbers needed to treat to prevent 1 CHD death would be 285 (340 with extrapolation), 380, and 440, respectively. In conclusion, the proportion of subjects classified as high risk for CHD varied over a fivefold range across recommendations. Following the International Atherosclerosis Society and the Adult Treatment Panel III recommendations might prevent more CHD deaths at the cost of higher numbers needed to treat compared with European Society of Cardiology guidelines.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Estimation of soil nitrate in the spring as a basis for adjustment of nitrogen fertiliser rates

Selostus: Maassa olevan nitraattitypen arviointi simulointimallin avulla