An extension of the continual reassessment method using decision theory

The primary goal of a phase I trial is to find the maximally tolerated dose (MTD) of a treatment. The MTD is usually defined in terms of a tolerable probability, q*, of toxicity. Our objective is to find the highest dose with toxicity risk that does not exceed q*, a criterion that is often desired in designing phase I trials. This criterion differs from that of finding the dose with toxicity risk closest to q*, that is used in methods such as the continual reassessment method. We use the theory of decision processes to find optimal sequential designs that maximize the expected number of patients within the trial allocated to the highest dose with toxicity not exceeding q*, among the doses under consideration. The proposed method is very general in the sense that criteria other than the one considered here can be optimized and that optimal dose assignment can be defined in terms of patients within or outside the trial. It includes as an important special case the continual reassessment method. Numerical study indicates the strategy compares favourably with other phase I designs.

The Homeless Etiquette : Social Interaction and Behavior Among the Homeless in Taito Ward, Tokyo

The thesis focuses on the social interaction and behavior of the homeless living in Tokyo's Taito Ward. The study is based on the author's own ethnographic field research carried out in the autumn 2003. The chosen methodologies were based on the methodology called "participant observation", and they were used depending on the context. The ethnographic field research was carried out from the mid-August to the beginning of the October in 2003. The most important targets of the research were three separate loosely knit groups placed in certain parts of Taito Ward. One of these groups was based in proximity to the Ueno train station, one group gathered every morning around a homeless support organization called San'yûkai, and one was based in Tamahime Park located in the old San'ya area of Tokyo. The analysis is based on the aspects of Takie Sugiyama Lebra's theory of "social relativism". Lebra's theory consists of the following, arguably universal aspects: belongingness, empathy, dependence, place in the society, and reciprocity. In addition, all the interaction and behavior is tied to the context and the situation. According to Lebra, ritual and intimate situations produce similar action, which is socially relative. Of these, the norms of the ritual behavior are more regulated, while the intimate bahavior is less spontaneous. On the contrary, an anomic situation produces anomic behavior, which is not socially relative. Lebra's theory is critically reviewed by the author of the thesis, and the author has attempted to modify the theory to make it more adaptable to the present-day society and to the analysis. Erving Goffman's views of the social interaction and Anthony Giddens' theories about the social structures have been used as complementary thoretical basis. The aim of the thesis is to clarify, how and why the interaction and the behavior of some homeless individuals in some situations follow the aspects of Lebra's "social relativism", and on the other hand, why in some situations they do not. In the latter cases the answers can be sought from regional and individual differences, or from the inaptness of the theory to analyze the presented situation. Here, a significant factor is the major finding of the field study: the so called "homeless etiquette", which is an abstract set of norms and values that influences the social interaction and behavior of the homeless, and with which many homeless individuals presented in the study complied. The fundamental goal of the thesis is to reach profound understanding about the daily life of the homeless, whose lives were studied. The author argues that this kind of profound understanding is necessary in looking for sustainable solutions in the areas of social and housing policy to improve the position of the homeless and the qualitative functioning of the society.

Bias reduction using stochastic approximation

The paper studies stochastic approximation as a technique for bias reduction. The proposed method does not require approximating the bias explicitly, nor does it rely on having independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. The method always removes the leading bias term, under very mild conditions, as long as auxiliary samples from distributions with given parameters are available. Expectation and variance of the bias-corrected estimate are given. Examples in sequential clinical trials (non-i.i.d. case), curved exponential models (i.i.d. case) and length-biased sampling (where the estimates are inconsistent) are used to illustrate the applications of the proposed method and its small sample properties.

Governance and regional variation of homicide rates: Evidence from cross-national data

Criminological theories of cross-national studies of homicide have underestimated the effects of quality governance of liberal democracy and region. Data sets from several sources are combined and a comprehensive model of homicide is proposed. Results of the spatial regression model, which controls for the effect of spatial autocorrelation, show that quality governance, human development, economic inequality, and ethnic heterogeneity are statistically significant in predicting homicide. In addition, regions of Latin America and non-Muslim Sub-Saharan Africa have significantly higher rates of homicides ceteris paribus while the effects of East Asian countries and Islamic societies are not statistically significant. These findings are consistent with the expectation of the new modernization and regional theories.

Steel–concrete–steel sandwich system in Arctic offshore structure: Materials, experiments, and design

The gravity based structure (GBS) with external Steel–Concrete–Steel (SCS) sandwich ice-resistant wall has been developed for the Arctic oil and gas drilling. This paper firstly reported the experimental studies on the mechanical properties of steel and concretes under Arctic low temperature. With the test data, design equations were developed to incorporate the influences of the low temperature on these mechanical properties. Two types of Arctic GBS structure with flower-conical SCS sandwich shell type and plate type of ice-resistant wall have been developed for the Arctic offshore structure. Besides the studies on the materials, two SCS sandwich prototype shells and plates were, respectively, prepared and tested under patch loading that simulated the localized ice-contact pressure. The structural behaviors of the SCS sandwich structure under patch loading were reported and discussions were made on the influences of different parameters on the structural behavior of the structure. Analytical models were developed to predict the punching shear resistances of the SCS sandwich structure through modifying the code provisions. The accuracies of the developed analytical models were checked through validations against 27 tests in the literature. Corresponding design procedures on resistances of SCS sandwich structure were recommended based on these discussions and validations.

Calculations of helium separation via uniform pores of stanene-based membranes

The development of low energy cost membranes to separate He from noble gas mixtures is highly desired. In this work, we studied He purification using recently experimentally realized, two-dimensional stanene (2D Sn) and decorated 2D Sn (SnH and SnF) honeycomb lattices by density functional theory calculations. To increase the permeability of noble gases through pristine 2D Sn at room temperature (298 K), two practical strategies (i.e., the application of strain and functionalization) are proposed. With their high concentration of large pores, 2D Sn-based membrane materials demonstrate excellent helium purification and can serve as a superior membrane over traditionally used, porous materials. In addition, the separation performance of these 2D Sn-based membrane materials can be significantly tuned by application of strain to optimize the He purification properties by taking both diffusion and selectivity into account. Our results are the first calculations of He separation in a defect-free honeycomb lattice, highlighting new interesting materials for helium separation for future experimental validation.

Collation of health literature for tropical and exotic fruits and extracts

This report collates data on the nutrient and phytochemical content of tropical exotic fruits, the evidence for health effects from consumption of these fruit and the use of extracts from edible and non-edible parts of these plants. The knowledge of Australian fruit compared with that grown overseas is presented together with opportunities for future work by Australian researchers. Opportunities for developing commercial extracts for use as food or nutraceutical uses are also presented.

Solutions for archiving data in long-term studies: A reply to Whitlock et al.

In our recent paper [1], we discussed some potential undesirable consequences of public data archiving (PDA) with specific reference to long-term studies and proposed solutions to manage these issues. We reaffirm our commitment to data sharing and collaboration, both of which have been common and fruitful practices supported for many decades by researchers involved in long-term studies. We acknowledge the potential benefits of PDA (e.g., [2]), but believe that several potential negative consequences for science have been underestimated [1] (see also 3 and 4). The objective of our recent paper [1] was to define practices to simultaneously maximize the benefits and minimize the potential unwanted consequences of PDA.

ACIAR Strengthening the Fiji Papaya Industry

Strengthening the Fiji Papaya Industry through applied research and information dissemination.

Distribution of ocular biometry in 7- and 14-year-old Chinese children

Purpose: To describe distributions of ocular biometry and their associations with refraction in 7- and 14-year-old children in urban areas of Anyang, central China. Methods: A total of 2271 grade 1 students aged 7.1 ± 0.4 years and 1786 grade 8 students aged 13.7 ± 0.5 years were measured with ocular biometry and cycloplegic refraction. A parental myopia questionnaire was administered to parents. Results: Mean axial length, anterior chamber depth, lens thickness, central corneal thickness, corneal diameter, corneal radius of curvature, axial length/corneal radius of curvature ratio, and spherical equivalent refraction were 22.72 ± 0.76 mm, 2.89 ± 0.24 mm, 3.61 ± 0.19 mm, 540.5 ± 31 μm, 12.06 ± 0.44 mm, 7.80 ± 0.25 mm, 2.91 ± 0.08, and +0.95 ± 1.05 diopters (D), respectively, in 7-year-old children. They were 24.39 ± 1.13 mm, 3.42 ± 0.41 mm, 3.18 ± 0.24 mm, 548.9 ± 33 μm, 12.03 ± 0.43 mm, 7.80 ± 0.26 mm, 3.13 ± 0.14, and −2.06 ± 2.20 D, respectively, in 14-year-old children. Compared with 7-year-old children, the older group had significantly more myopia (−3.0 D), longer axial length (1.7 mm), deeper anterior chamber depth (0.3 mm), thinner lens thickness (−0.2 mm), thicker central corneal thickness (10 μm), and greater axial length/corneal radius of curvature ratio (0.22) (all p < 0.001), as well as smaller corneal diameter (−0.03 mm, p = 0.02) and similar corneal radius of curvature. Sex differences were similar in both age groups, with boys having longer axial length (0.5 mm), deeper anterior chamber depth (0.1 mm), shorter lens thickness (0.03 mm), greater central corneal thickness (5 μm), greater corneal diameter (0.15 mm), and greater corneal radius of curvature (0.14 mm) than girls (all p < 0.01). The most important variables related to spherical equivalent refraction were vitreous length, corneal radius of curvature, and lens thickness. Conclusions: The 14-year-old group had larger parameter dimensions than the 7-year-old group except for corneal radius of curvature (unchanged) and lens thickness and corneal diameter (both smaller). Boys had large parameter dimensions than girls except for lens thickness (smaller). Axial length, corneal radius of curvature, and lens thickness were the most important determinants of refraction.

Peripheral refraction in 7- and 14-year-old children in central China: The Anyang Childhood Eye Study

Purpose: To determine the distribution of peripheral refraction, including astigmatism, in 7- and 14-year-old Chinese children. Methods: 2134 7-year-old and 1780 14-year-old children were measured with cycloplegic central and horizontal peripheral refraction (15° and 30° at temporal and nasal visual fields). Results: 7- and 14-year-old children included 9 and 594, respectively, with moderate and high myopia (≤−3.0 D), 259 and 831 with low myopia (−2.99 to −0.5 D), 1207 and 305 with emmetropia (−0.49 to +1.0 D), and 659 and 50 with hyperopia (>1.0 D), respectively. Myopic children had relative peripheral hyperopia while hyperopic and emmetropic children had relative peripheral myopia, with greater changes in relative peripheral refraction occurring in the nasal than the temporal visual field. The older group had the greater relative peripheral hyperopia and higher peripheral J180. Both age groups showed positive slopes of J45 across the visual field, with greater slopes in the older group. Conclusions: Myopic children in mainland China have relative peripheral hyperopia while hyperopic and emmetropic children have relative peripheral myopia. Significant differences exist between 7- and 14-year-old children, with the latter showing more relative peripheral hyperopia, greater rate of change in J45 across the visual field, and higher peripheral J180.

Paraxial schematic eye models for 7- and 14-year-old Chinese children

Purpose.: To develop three-surface paraxial schematic eyes with different ages and sexes based on data for 7- and 14-year-old Chinese children from the Anyang Childhood Eye Study. Methods.: Six sets of paraxial schematic eyes, including 7-year-old eyes, 7-year-old male eyes, 7-year-old female eyes, 14-year-old eyes, 14-year-old male eyes, and 14-year-old female eyes, were developed. Both refraction-dependent and emmetropic eye models were developed, with the former using linear dependence of ocular parameters on refraction. Results.: A total of 2059 grade 1 children (boys 58%) and 1536 grade 8 children (boys 49%) were included, with mean age of 7.1 ± 0.4 and 13.7 ± 0.5 years, respectively. Changes in these schematic eyes with aging are increased anterior chamber depth, decreased lens thickness, increased vitreous chamber depth, increased axial length, and decreased lens equivalent power. Male schematic eyes have deeper anterior chamber depth, longer vitreous chamber depth, longer axial length, and lower lens equivalent power than female schematic eyes. Changes in the schematic eyes with positive increase in refraction are decreased anterior chamber depth, increased lens thickness, decreased vitreous chamber depth, decreased axial length, increased corneal radius of curvature, and increased lens power. In general, the emmetropic schematic eyes have biometric parameters similar to those arising from regression fits for the refraction-dependent schematic eyes. Conclusions.: The paraxial schematic eyes of Chinese children may be useful for myopia research and for facilitating comparison with other children with the same or different racial backgrounds and living in different places.

Rapid increase in scrub typhus incidence in Mainland China, 2006-2014

Scrub typhus is a vector-borne disease, which has recently reemerged in China. In this study, we describe the distribution and incidence of scrub typhus cases in China from 2006 to 2014 and quantify differences in scrub typhus cases with respect to sex, age, and occupation. The results of our study indicate that the annual incidence of scrub typhus has increased during the study period. The number of cases peaked in 2014, which was 12.8 times greater than the number of cases reported in 2006. Most (77.97%) of the cases were reported in five provinces (Guangdong, Yunnan, Anhui, Fujian, and Shandong). Our study also demonstrates that the incidence rate of scrub typhus was significantly higher in females compared to males (P < 0.001) and was highest in the 60–69 year age group, and that farmers had a higher incidence rate than non farmers (P < 0.001). Different seasonal trends were identified in the number of reported cases between the northern and southern provinces of China. These findings not only demonstrate that China has experienced a large increase in scrub typhus incidence, but also document an expansion in the geographic distribution throughout the country.

Spatiotemporal clustering analysis and risk assessments of human cutaneous anthrax in China, 2005–2012

Objective To investigate the epidemic characteristics of human cutaneous anthrax (CA) in China, detect the spatiotemporal clusters at the county level for preemptive public health interventions, and evaluate the differences in the epidemiological characteristics within and outside clusters. Methods CA cases reported during 2005–2012 from the national surveillance system were evaluated at the county level using space-time scan statistic. Comparative analysis of the epidemic characteristics within and outside identified clusters was performed using using the χ2 test or Kruskal-Wallis test. Results The group of 30–39 years had the highest incidence of CA, and the fatality rate increased with age, with persons ≥70 years showing a fatality rate of 4.04%. Seasonality analysis showed that most of CA cases occurred between May/June and September/October of each year. The primary spatiotemporal cluster contained 19 counties from June 2006 to May 2010, and it was mainly located straddling the borders of Sichuan, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces. In these high-risk areas, CA cases were predominantly found among younger, local, males, shepherds, who were living on agriculture and stockbreeding and characterized with high morbidity, low mortality and a shorter period from illness onset to diagnosis. Conclusion CA was geographically and persistently clustered in the Southwestern China during 2005–2012, with notable differences in the epidemic characteristics within and outside spatiotemporal clusters; this demonstrates the necessity for CA interventions such as enhanced surveillance, health education, mandatory and standard decontamination or disinfection procedures to be geographically targeted to the areas identified in this study.

Relative peripheral hyperopia does not predict development and progression of myopia in children

Purpose To test the hypothesis that relative peripheral hyperopia predicts development and progression of myopia. Methods Refraction along the horizontal visual field was measured under cycloplegia at visual field angles of 0°, ±15°, and ±30° at baseline, 1 and 2 years in over 1700 initially 7-year-old Chinese children, and at baseline and 1 year in over 1000 initially 14-year olds. One refraction classification for central refraction was “nonmyopia, myopia” (nM, M), consisting of nM greater than −0.50 diopters (D; spherical equivalent) and M less than or equal to −0.50 D. A second classification was “hyperopia, emmetropia, low myopia, and moderate/high myopia” (H, E, LM, MM) with H greater than or equal to +1.00 D, E, −0.49 to +0.99 D, LM, −2.99 to −0.50 D, and MM less than or equal to −3.00 D. Subclassifications were made on the basis of development and progression of myopia over the 2 years. Changes in central refraction over time were determined for different groups, and relative peripheral refraction over time was compared between different subgroups. Results Simple linear regression of central refraction as a function of relative peripheral refraction did not predict myopia progression as relative peripheral refraction became more hyperopic: relative peripheral hyperopia and relative peripheral myopia predicted significant myopia progression for 0% and 35% of group/visual field angle combinations, respectively. Subgroups who developed myopia did not have more initial relative peripheral hyperopia than subgroups who did not develop myopia. Conclusions Relative peripheral hyperopia does not predict development nor progression of myopia in children. This calls into question the efficacy of treatments that aim to slow progression of myopia in children by “treating” relative peripheral hyperopia.