Statnote 39: The binomial distribution: comparing two proportions

Many populations consist of two classes only, e.g., alive or dead, present or absent, clean or dirty, infected or non-infected, and it is the proportion or percentage of observations that fall into one of these classes that is of interest to an investigator. An observation that falls into one of the two classes is considered a ‘success’ (S), and ‘p’ is defined as the proportion of observations falling into that class. If a random sample of size ‘n’ is obtained from a population, the probability of obtaining 0, 1, 2, 3, etc., successes is then given by the binomial distribution. The binomial distribution can be used as the basis of a number of statistical tests but is most useful when comparing two proportions. This statnote describes two such scenarios in which the binomial distribution is used to compare: (1) two proportions when the samples are independent and (2) two proportions when the samples are paired.

Sums of a Random Number of Random Variables and their Approximations with ν- Accompanying Infinitely Divisible Laws

* Research supported by NATO GRANT CRG 900 798 and by Humboldt Award for U.S. Scientists.

Problems and Theorems in the Theory of Multiplier Sequences

The purpose of this paper is (1) to highlight some recent and heretofore unpublished results in the theory of multiplier sequences and (2) to survey some open problems in this area of research. For the sake of clarity of exposition, we have grouped the problems in three subsections, although several of the problems are interrelated. For the reader’s convenience, we have included the pertinent definitions, cited references and related results, and in several instances, elucidated the problems by examples.

On the Coherence Between Probability and Possibility Measures

* This paper is supported by CICYT (Spain) under Project TIN 2005-08943-C02-01.

The B-Terminal Busy Probability Prediction

In the teletraffic engineering of all the telecommunication networks, parameters characterizing the terminal traffic are used. One of the most important of them is the probability of finding the called (B-terminal) busy. This parameter is studied in some of the first and last papers in Teletraffic Theory. We propose a solution in this topic in the case of (virtual) channel systems, such as PSTN and GSM. We propose a detailed conceptual traffic model and, based on it, an analytical macro-state model of the system in stationary state, with: Bernoulli– Poisson–Pascal input flow; repeated calls; limited number of homogeneous terminals; losses due to abandoned and interrupted dialling, blocked and interrupted switching, not available intent terminal, blocked and abandoned ringing and abandoned conversation. Proposed in this paper approach may help in determination of many network traffic characteristics at session level, in performance evaluation of the next generation mobile networks.

Conditional probability calculations for the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with additive noise

The method for the computation of the conditional probability density function for the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with additive noise is developed. We present in a constructive form the conditional probability density function in the limit of small noise and analytically derive it in a weakly nonlinear case. The general theory results are illustrated using fiber-optic communications as a particular, albeit practically very important, example.

Credibility theory-based available transfer capability assessment

Since the development of large scale power grid interconnections and power markets, research on available transfer capability (ATC) has attracted great attention. The challenges for accurate assessment of ATC originate from the numerous uncertainties in electricity generation, transmission, distribution and utilization sectors. Power system uncertainties can be mainly described as two types: randomness and fuzziness. However, the traditional transmission reliability margin (TRM) approach only considers randomness. Based on credibility theory, this paper firstly built models of generators, transmission lines and loads according to their features of both randomness and fuzziness. Then a random fuzzy simulation is applied, along with a novel method proposed for ATC assessment, in which both randomness and fuzziness are considered. The bootstrap method and multi-core parallel computing technique are introduced to enhance the processing speed. By implementing simulation for the IEEE-30-bus system and a real-life system located in Northwest China, the viability of the models and the proposed method is verified.

Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

Mixed Negative Binomial Distribution by Weighted Gamma Mixing Distribution

Павел Т. Стойнов - В тази работа се разглежда отрицателно биномното разпределение, известно още като разпределение на Пойа. Предполагаме, че смесващото разпределение е претеглено гама разпределение. Изведени са вероятностите в някои частни случаи. Дадени са рекурентните формули на Панжер.

An Estimate of the Probability Pr(X

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 33C90, 62E99

Efficient computation of decoherent quantum walks through eigenvalue perturbation

A number of recent studies have investigated the introduction of decoherence in quantum walks and the resulting transition to classical random walks. Interestingly,it has been shown that algorithmic properties of quantum walks with decoherence such as the spreading rate are sometimes better than their purely quantum counterparts. Not only quantum walks with decoherence provide a generalization of quantum walks that naturally encompasses both the quantum and classical case, but they also give rise to new and different probability distribution. The application of quantum walks with decoherence to large graphs is limited by the necessity of evolving state vector whose sizes quadratic in the number of nodes of the graph, as opposed to the linear state vector of the purely quantum (or classical) case. In this technical report,we show how to use perturbation theory to reduce the computational complexity of evolving a continuous-time quantum walk subject to decoherence. More specifically, given a graph over n nodes, we show how to approximate the eigendecomposition of the n2×n2 Lindblad super-operator from the eigendecomposition of the n×n graph Hamiltonian.

Hybrid sampling on mutual information entropy-based clustering ensembles for optimizations

In this paper, we focus on the design of bivariate EDAs for discrete optimization problems and propose a new approach named HSMIEC. While the current EDAs require much time in the statistical learning process as the relationships among the variables are too complicated, we employ the Selfish gene theory (SG) in this approach, as well as a Mutual Information and Entropy based Cluster (MIEC) model is also set to optimize the probability distribution of the virtual population. This model uses a hybrid sampling method by considering both the clustering accuracy and clustering diversity and an incremental learning and resample scheme is also set to optimize the parameters of the correlations of the variables. Compared with several benchmark problems, our experimental results demonstrate that HSMIEC often performs better than some other EDAs, such as BMDA, COMIT, MIMIC and ECGA. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

One-dimensional optical wave turbulence:experiment and theory

We present a review of the latest developments in one-dimensional (1D) optical wave turbulence (OWT). Based on an original experimental setup that allows for the implementation of 1D OWT, we are able to show that an inverse cascade occurs through the spontaneous evolution of the nonlinear field up to the point when modulational instability leads to soliton formation. After solitons are formed, further interaction of the solitons among themselves and with incoherent waves leads to a final condensate state dominated by a single strong soliton. Motivated by the observations, we develop a theoretical description, showing that the inverse cascade develops through six-wave interaction, and that this is the basic mechanism of nonlinear wave coupling for 1D OWT. We describe theory, numerics and experimental observations while trying to incorporate all the different aspects into a consistent context. The experimental system is described by two coupled nonlinear equations, which we explore within two wave limits allowing for the expression of the evolution of the complex amplitude in a single dynamical equation. The long-wave limit corresponds to waves with wave numbers smaller than the electrical coherence length of the liquid crystal, and the opposite limit, when wave numbers are larger. We show that both of these systems are of a dual cascade type, analogous to two-dimensional (2D) turbulence, which can be described by wave turbulence (WT) theory, and conclude that the cascades are induced by a six-wave resonant interaction process. WT theory predicts several stationary solutions (non-equilibrium and thermodynamic) to both the long- and short-wave systems, and we investigate the necessary conditions required for their realization. Interestingly, the long-wave system is close to the integrable 1D nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) (which contains exact nonlinear soliton solutions), and as a result during the inverse cascade, nonlinearity of the system at low wave numbers becomes strong. Subsequently, due to the focusing nature of the nonlinearity, this leads to modulational instability (MI) of the condensate and the formation of solitons. Finally, with the aid of the probability density function (PDF) description of WT theory, we explain the coexistence and mutual interactions between solitons and the weakly nonlinear random wave background in the form of a wave turbulence life cycle (WTLC).

Why (and When) are Preferences Convex? Threshold Effects and Uncertain Quality

It is often assumed (for analytical convenience, but also in accordance with common intuition) that consumer preferences are convex. In this paper, we consider circumstances under which such preferences are (or are not) optimal. In particular, we investigate a setting in which goods possess some hidden quality with known distribution, and the consumer chooses a bundle of goods that maximizes the probability that he receives some threshold level of this quality. We show that if the threshold is small relative to consumption levels, preferences will tend to be convex; whereas the opposite holds if the threshold is large. Our theory helps explain a broad spectrum of economic behavior (including, in particular, certain common commercial advertising strategies), suggesting that sensitivity to information about thresholds is deeply rooted in human psychology.

Climate change in game theory

The study provides an overview of the application possibilities of game theory to climate change. The characteristics of games are adapted to the topics of climate and carbon. The importance of uncertainty, probability, marginal value of adaptation, common pool resources, etc. are tailored to the context of international relations and the challenge of global warming.