Ag Decision Maker, March 2016, Vol. 20, no. 5

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Evaluation of the multicriteria approval method for timber-harvesting group decision support

Abstract

Decision-theoretic reflections on processing a fingermark

A recent publication in this journal [Neumann et al., Forensic Sci. Int. 212 (2011) 32-46] presented the results of a field study that revealed the data provided by the fingermarks not processed in a forensic science laboratory. In their study, the authors were interested in the usefulness of this additional data in order to determine whether such fingermarks would have been worth submitting to the fingermark processing workflow. Taking these ideas as a starting point, this communication here places the fingermark in its context of a case brought before a court, and examines the question of processing or not processing a fingermark from a decision-theoretic point of view. The decision-theoretic framework presented provides an answer to this question in the form of a quantified expression of the expected value of information (EVOI) associated with the processed fingermark, which can then be compared with the cost of processing the mark.

Ag Decision Maker, April 2016, Vol. 20, no. 6

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Ag Decision Maker, May 2016, Vol. 20, no. 7

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

The timing of exploratory decision-making revealed by single-trial topographic EEGanalyses.

Decision-making in an uncertain environment is driven by two major needs: exploring the environment to gather information or exploiting acquired knowledge to maximize reward. The neural processes underlying exploratory decision-making have been mainly studied by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging, overlooking any information about the time when decisions are made. Here, we carried out an electroencephalography (EEG) experiment, in order to detect the time when the brain generators responsible for these decisions have been sufficiently activated to lead to the next decision. Our analyses, based on a classification scheme, extract time-unlocked voltage topographies during reward presentation and use them to predict the type of decisions made on the subsequent trial. Classification accuracy, measured as the area under the Receiver Operator's Characteristic curve was on average 0.65 across 7 subjects. Classification accuracy was above chance levels already after 516 ms on average, across subjects. We speculate that decisions were already made before this critical period, as confirmed by a positive correlation with reaction times across subjects. On an individual subject basis, distributed source estimations were performed on the extracted topographies to statistically evaluate the neural correlates of decision-making. For trials leading to exploration, there was significantly higher activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the right supramarginal gyrus; areas responsible for modulating behavior under risk and deduction. No area was more active during exploitation. We show for the first time the temporal evolution of differential patterns of brain activation in an exploratory decision-making task on a single-trial basis.

Coordination and collaboration in European research towards healthy and safe nanomaterials

Nanotechnology is becoming part of our daily life in a wide range of products such as computers, bicycles, sunscreens or nanomedicines. While these applications already become reality, considerable work awaits scientists, engineers, and policy makers, who want such nanotechnological products to yield a maximum of benefit at a minimum of social, environmental, economic and (occupational) health cost. Considerable efforts for coordination and collaboration in research are needed if one wants to reach these goals in a reasonable time frame and an affordable price tag. This is recognized in Europe by the European Commission which funds not only research projects but also supports the coordination of research efforts. One of these coordination efforts is NanoImpactNet, a researcher-operated network, which started in 2008 promote scientific cross-talk across all disciplines on the health and environmental impact of nanomaterials. Stakeholders contribute to these activities, notably the definition of research and knowledge needs. Initial discussions in this domain focused on finding an agreement on common metrics, and which elements are needed for standardized approaches for hazard and exposure identification. There are many nanomaterial properties that may play a role. Hence, to gain the time needed to study this complex matter full of uncertainties, researchers and stakeholders unanimously called for simple, easy and fast risk assessment tools that can support decision making in this rapidly moving and growing domain. Today, several projects are starting or already running that will develop such assessment tools. At the same time, other projects investigate in depth which factors and material properties can lead to unwanted toxicity or exposure, what mechanisms are involved and how such responses can be predicted and modelled. A vision for the future is that once these factors, properties and mechanisms are understood, they can and will be accounted for in the development of new products and production processes following the idea of "Safety by Design". The promise of all these efforts is a future with nanomaterials where most of their risks are recognized and addressed before they even reach the market.

Tapping the innovation potential of corporate engagement with stakeholders

Summary This dissertation explores how stakeholder dialogue influences corporate processes, and speculates about the potential of this phenomenon - particularly with actors, like non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other representatives of civil society, which have received growing attention against a backdrop of increasing globalisation and which have often been cast in an adversarial light by firms - as a source of teaming and a spark for innovation in the firm. The study is set within the context of the introduction of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in Europe. Its significance lies in the fact that scientific developments and new technologies are being generated at an unprecedented rate in an era where civil society is becoming more informed, more reflexive, and more active in facilitating or blocking such new developments, which could have the potential to trigger widespread changes in economies, attitudes, and lifestyles, and address global problems like poverty, hunger, climate change, and environmental degradation. In the 1990s, companies using biotechnology to develop and offer novel products began to experience increasing pressure from civil society to disclose information about the risks associated with the use of biotechnology and GMOs, in particular. Although no harmful effects for humans or the environment have been factually demonstrated even to date (2008), this technology remains highly-contested and its introduction in Europe catalysed major companies to invest significant financial and human resources in stakeholder dialogue. A relatively new phenomenon at the time, with little theoretical backing, dialogue was seen to reflect a move towards greater engagement with stakeholders, commonly defined as those "individuals or groups with which. business interacts who have a 'stake', or vested interest in the firm" (Carroll, 1993:22) with whom firms are seen to be inextricably embedded (Andriof & Waddock, 2002). Regarding the organisation of this dissertation, Chapter 1 (Introduction) describes the context of the study, elaborates its significance for academics and business practitioners as an empirical work embedded in a sector at the heart of the debate on corporate social responsibility (CSR). Chapter 2 (Literature Review) traces the roots and evolution of CSR, drawing on Stakeholder Theory, Institutional Theory, Resource Dependence Theory, and Organisational Learning to establish what has already been developed in the literature regarding the stakeholder concept, motivations for engagement with stakeholders, the corporate response to external constituencies, and outcomes for the firm in terms of organisational learning and change. I used this review of the literature to guide my inquiry and to develop the key constructs through which I viewed the empirical data that was gathered. In this respect, concepts related to how the firm views itself (as a victim, follower, leader), how stakeholders are viewed (as a source of pressure and/or threat; as an asset: current and future), corporate responses (in the form of buffering, bridging, boundary redefinition), and types of organisational teaming (single-loop, double-loop, triple-loop) and change (first order, second order, third order) were particularly important in building the key constructs of the conceptual model that emerged from the analysis of the data. Chapter 3 (Methodology) describes the methodology that was used to conduct the study, affirms the appropriateness of the case study method in addressing the research question, and describes the procedures for collecting and analysing the data. Data collection took place in two phases -extending from August 1999 to October 2000, and from May to December 2001, which functioned as `snapshots' in time of the three companies under study. The data was systematically analysed and coded using ATLAS/ti, a qualitative data analysis tool, which enabled me to sort, organise, and reduce the data into a manageable form. Chapter 4 (Data Analysis) contains the three cases that were developed (anonymised as Pioneer, Helvetica, and Viking). Each case is presented in its entirety (constituting a `within case' analysis), followed by a 'cross-case' analysis, backed up by extensive verbatim evidence. Chapter 5 presents the research findings, outlines the study's limitations, describes managerial implications, and offers suggestions for where more research could elaborate the conceptual model developed through this study, as well as suggestions for additional research in areas where managerial implications were outlined. References and Appendices are included at the end. This dissertation results in the construction and description of a conceptual model, grounded in the empirical data and tied to existing literature, which portrays a set of elements and relationships deemed important for understanding the impact of stakeholder engagement for firms in terms of organisational learning and change. This model suggests that corporate perceptions about the nature of stakeholder influence the perceived value of stakeholder contributions. When stakeholders are primarily viewed as a source of pressure or threat, firms tend to adopt a reactive/defensive posture in an effort to manage stakeholders and protect the firm from sources of outside pressure -behaviour consistent with Resource Dependence Theory, which suggests that firms try to get control over extemal threats by focussing on the relevant stakeholders on whom they depend for critical resources, and try to reverse the control potentially exerted by extemal constituencies by trying to influence and manipulate these valuable stakeholders. In situations where stakeholders are viewed as a current strategic asset, firms tend to adopt a proactive/offensive posture in an effort to tap stakeholder contributions and connect the organisation to its environment - behaviour consistent with Institutional Theory, which suggests that firms try to ensure the continuing license to operate by internalising external expectations. In instances where stakeholders are viewed as a source of future value, firms tend to adopt an interactive/innovative posture in an effort to reduce or widen the embedded system and bring stakeholders into systems of innovation and feedback -behaviour consistent with the literature on Organisational Learning, which suggests that firms can learn how to optimize their performance as they develop systems and structures that are more adaptable and responsive to change The conceptual model moreover suggests that the perceived value of stakeholder contribution drives corporate aims for engagement, which can be usefully categorised as dialogue intentions spanning a continuum running from low-level to high-level to very-high level. This study suggests that activities aimed at disarming critical stakeholders (`manipulation') providing guidance and correcting misinformation (`education'), being transparent about corporate activities and policies (`information'), alleviating stakeholder concerns (`placation'), and accessing stakeholder opinion ('consultation') represent low-level dialogue intentions and are experienced by stakeholders as asymmetrical, persuasive, compliance-gaining activities that are not in line with `true' dialogue. This study also finds evidence that activities aimed at redistributing power ('partnership'), involving stakeholders in internal corporate processes (`participation'), and demonstrating corporate responsibility (`stewardship') reflect high-level dialogue intentions. This study additionally finds evidence that building and sustaining high-quality, trusted relationships which can meaningfully influence organisational policies incline a firm towards the type of interactive, proactive processes that underpin the development of sustainable corporate strategies. Dialogue intentions are related to type of corporate response: low-level intentions can lead to buffering strategies; high-level intentions can underpin bridging strategies; very high-level intentions can incline a firm towards boundary redefinition. The nature of corporate response (which encapsulates a firm's posture towards stakeholders, demonstrated by the level of dialogue intention and the firm's strategy for dealing with stakeholders) favours the type of learning and change experienced by the organisation. This study indicates that buffering strategies, where the firm attempts to protect itself against external influences and cant' out its existing strategy, typically lead to single-loop learning, whereby the firm teams how to perform better within its existing paradigm and at most, improves the performance of the established system - an outcome associated with first-order change. Bridging responses, where the firm adapts organisational activities to meet external expectations, typically leads a firm to acquire new behavioural capacities characteristic of double-loop learning, whereby insights and understanding are uncovered that are fundamentally different from existing knowledge and where stakeholders are brought into problem-solving conversations that enable them to influence corporate decision-making to address shortcomings in the system - an outcome associated with second-order change. Boundary redefinition suggests that the firm engages in triple-loop learning, where the firm changes relations with stakeholders in profound ways, considers problems from a whole-system perspective, examining the deep structures that sustain the system, producing innovation to address chronic problems and develop new opportunities - an outcome associated with third-order change. This study supports earlier theoretical and empirical studies {e.g. Weick's (1979, 1985) work on self-enactment; Maitlis & Lawrence's (2007) and Maitlis' (2005) work and Weick et al's (2005) work on sensegiving and sensemaking in organisations; Brickson's (2005, 2007) and Scott & Lane's (2000) work on organisational identity orientation}, which indicate that corporate self-perception is a key underlying factor driving the dynamics of organisational teaming and change. Such theorizing has important implications for managerial practice; namely, that a company which perceives itself as a 'victim' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of negative influence, and would therefore be potentially unable to benefit from the positive influence of engagement. Such a selfperception can blind the firm from seeing stakeholders in a more positive, contributing light, which suggests that such firms may not be inclined to embrace external sources of innovation and teaming, as they are focussed on protecting the firm against disturbing environmental influences (through buffering), and remain more likely to perform better within an existing paradigm (single-loop teaming). By contrast, a company that perceives itself as a 'leader' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of positive influence. On the downside, such a firm might have difficulty distinguishing when stakeholder contributions are less pertinent as it is deliberately more open to elements in operating environment (including stakeholders) as potential sources of learning and change, as the firm is oriented towards creating space for fundamental change (through boundary redefinition), opening issues to entirely new ways of thinking and addressing issues from whole-system perspective. A significant implication of this study is that potentially only those companies who see themselves as a leader are ultimately able to tap the innovation potential of stakeholder dialogue.

A decision support system for selective cleaning

[Abstract]

Automatic Decision-Oriented Mapping of Pollution Data

The paper deals with the development and application of the methodology for automatic mapping of pollution/contamination data. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is considered in detail and is proposed as an efficient tool to solve this problem. The automatic tuning of isotropic and an anisotropic GRNN model using cross-validation procedure is presented. Results are compared with k-nearest-neighbours interpolation algorithm using independent validation data set. Quality of mapping is controlled by the analysis of raw data and the residuals using variography. Maps of probabilities of exceeding a given decision level and ?thick? isoline visualization of the uncertainties are presented as examples of decision-oriented mapping. Real case study is based on mapping of radioactively contaminated territories.

Offering planning with support of roadmapping in project business

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia kuinka roadmapping-tekniikkaa voidaan käyttää tarjonnan suunnittelun tukena uusien tuotteiden valmistamisen yhteydessä. Työ koostuu teoreettisesta ja käytännönläheisestä osasta. Teoreettinen runko on luotu selventämään kuinka tämän hetkisen tutkimus- ja kehitys projektit lopulta muodostavat tulevaisuuden tarjoaman. Menestyksekkään tuotetarjoaman luominen vaatii, sekä uusien teknologioiden kehittämistä, että markkinoilla olevien asiakkaiden tarpeiden ymmärtämistä. Asiakassuuntaisten tuotteiden kehittäminen vaatii toimintaympäristöstä ja asiakasrajapinnasta tulevien signaalien tunnistamista ja niiden ohjaamista tuote- ja teknologia platformeille. Strategia luodaan tukemaan päätöksentekoa prosessin eri vaiheissa. Yrityskohtainen osio koostuu analyysistä, joka on tehty teetetyn kyselyn ja haas-tattelujen pohjalta. Osana analyysia ovat Major project-yksikön tämänhetkinen tarjonnansuunnitteluprosessi, strategian soveltaminen, informaation kerääminen ja priorisointi, portfolionhallinta ja roadmap-tekniikan käyttö. Ratkaisussa on esitet-ty tarjonnan suunnitteluprosessi ja siihen liittyvät kriittiset komponentit. Roadmapping-tekniikkaaon luotu yhdistämään toimintaympäristö, tuotteet ja teknologia toisiinsa. Toimintaympäristö ja tuotteet on yhdistetty myös linked-grids-tekniikan avulla.

Forensic processing of false identity and travel documents to produce intelligence: a novel approach to assist in fighting organized crime

The production and use of false identity and travel documents in organized crime represent a serious and evolving threat. However, a case-by-case perspective, thus suffering from linkage blindness and a limited analysis capacity, essentially drives the present-day fight against this criminal problem. To assist in overcoming these limitations, a process model was developed using a forensic perspective. It guides the systematic analysis and management of seized false documents to generate forensic intelligence that supports strategic and tactical decision-making in an intelligence-led policing approach. The model is articulated on a three-level architecture that aims to assist in detecting and following-up on general trends, production methods and links between cases or series. Using analyses of a large dataset of counterfeit and forged identity and travel documents, it is possible to illustrate the model, its three levels and their contribution. Examples will point out how the proposed approach assists in detecting emerging trends, in evaluating the black market's degree of structure, in uncovering criminal networks, in monitoring the quality of false documents, and in identifying their weaknesses to orient the conception of more secured travel and identity documents. The process model proposed is thought to have a general application in forensic science and can readily be transposed to other fields of study.

Tuoteturvallisuusriskien hallinta suorituskyvyn johtamisen tukena sähkö- ja elektroniikkateollisuudessa

Eurooppalaisia ja suomalaisia markkinavalvontatilastoja tutkimalla havaitaan, ettei tuoteturvallisuuden hallinta ole itsestään selvää sähkö- ja elektroniikka-alalla. Vuodesta 2000 maaliskuuhun 2006Euroopan markkinoilla havaittiin 3040 vaarallista kuluttajien käyttöön tarkoitettua sähkötuotetta. Työn päätavoitteena on selvittää, miten tuoteturvallisuusriskien hallinta kytkeytyy yrityksen suorituskyvyn johtamiseen. Työssä on käytetty konstruktiivista tutkimusotetta. Aineistopohjaisen analyysin avulla kartoitetaan suorituskyvyn johtamisen teoriaa, suorituskyvyn käytännön mittaamista pienissä ja keskisuurissa yrityksissä sekä tuoteturvallisuusriskejä jariskienhallinnan periaatteita. Lisäksi kartoitetaan lainsäädännön vaatimuksia, tuotesuunnittelua, valmistusta ja osaamista sekä tarkastellaan tuoteturvallisuuden viranomaisvalvonnan tuloksia. Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan kirjallisuutta ja tilastoja etsien tuoteriskien hallinnan ja suorituskyvyn johtamisen välistä yhteyttä. Analyysiä täydennetään tutkimuksen tekijän kokemuksella tuoteturvallisuuden testauksesta ja sertifioinnista, standardisoimistyöstä sekä tuoteturvallisuuden viranomaisvalvonnasta. Riskienhallinta muodostaa parhaimmillaan osan yrityksen johtamis- ja hallintakäytäntöä. Tuoteturvallisuusriskien hallinta on yrityksen strateginen päätös, joka tukee suorituskyvyn johtamista. Työssämallinnetaan kolme toimintatapaa, joilla eri kehitysvaiheessa olevat sähkö- ja elektroniikkateollisuuden valmistajat voivat hallita tuoteturvallisuusriskejään.Työssä kootaan yhteen tuoteturvallisuuden tekijöitä, jotka suorituskyvyn mittareissa monitoroivat tuoteriskien tilaa. Lisäksi kootaan yhteen riskienhallinnan kustannuksia, joilla yritys voi arvioida etukäteen kokonaiskustannuksia.