Learning from insurance data: Injuries to other road users in motorcyclist at-fault crashes

In multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes, the motorcycle rider is less likely to be at-fault but more commonly severely injured than the other road user. Therefore, not surprisingly, crashes in which motorcycle riders are at-fault and particularly the injuries to the other road users in these crashes have received little research attention. This paper aims to address this gap in the literature by investigating the factors influencing the severity of injury to other road users in motorcyclist-at-fault crashes. Five years of data from Queensland, Australia, were obtained from a database of claims against the compulsory third party (CTP) injury insurance of the at-fault motorcyclists. Analysis of the data using an ordered probit model shows higher injury severity for crashes involving young (under 25) and older (60+) at-fault motorcyclists. Among the not at-fault road users, the young, old, and males were found to be more severely injured than others. Injuries to vehicle occupants were less severe than those to pillions. Crashes that occurred between vehicles traveling in opposite directions resulted in more severe injuries than those involving vehicles traveling in the same direction. While most existing studies have analyzed police reported crash data, this study used CTP insurance data. Comparison of results indicates the potential of using CTP insurance data as an alternative to police reported crash data for gaining a better understanding of risk factors for motorcycle crashes and injury severity.

Screening Corymbia populations for resistance to Puccinia psidii

The exotic rust pathogen Puccinia psidii is now widespread along the east coast of Australia from temperate Victoria to tropical far north Queensland, with a current host range exceeding 200 species from 37 myrtaceous genera. To determine the threat P. psidii poses to plantation and native eucalypts, artificial inoculation was used to screen germplasm of spotted gum (Corymbia spp.) for resistance to the biotype of P. psidii that has become established in Australia. The objective was to characterize resistance to P. psidii within the Corymbia species complex so that management strategies for the deployment of germplasm from existing breeding programmes of these spotted gum species could be developed. Symptom development initiated 7 days after inoculation, with resistant and susceptible seedlings identified within all species, provenances and families. Inter- and intraspecific variability in rust resistance was observed among spotted gum species. There was no apparent relationship between climatic conditions at the provenance origin and disease resistance. The heritability estimates for all assessments are moderate to high and indicate a significant level of additive genetic variance for rust resistance within the populations. The results of this study clearly identify potential to select for resistance at the family level within the tested populations. While the potential for P. psidii to detrimentally impact upon Corymbia in the nursery and in young plantations was demonstrated, estimations of the heritability of resistance suggest that efforts to enhance this trait through breeding have reasonable prospects for success.

Developing standardized methods to assess cost of healthy and unhealthy (current) diets in Australia

Unhealthy diets contribute at least 14% to Australia's disease burden and are driven by ‘obesogenic’ food environments. Compliance with dietary recommendations is particularly poor amongst disadvantaged populations including low socioeconomic groups, those living in rural/remote areas and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. The perception that healthy foods are expensive is a key barrier to healthy choices and a major determinant of diet-related health inequities. Available state/regional/local data (limited and non-comparable) suggests that, despite basic healthy foods not incurring GST, the cost of healthy food is higher and has increased more rapidly than unhealthy food over the last 15 years in Australia. However, there were no nationally standardised tools or protocols to benchmark, compare or monitor food prices and affordability in Australia. Globally, we are leading work to develop and test approaches to assess the price differential of healthy and less-healthy (current) diets under the food price module of the International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases (NCDs) Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS). This presentation describes contextualization of the INFORMAS approach to develop standardised Australian tools, survey protocols and data collection and analysis systems. The ‘healthy diet basket’ was based on the Australian Foundation Diet, 1 The ‘current diet basket’ and specific items included in each basket, were based on recent national dietary survey data.2 Data collection methods were piloted. The final tools and protocols were then applied to measure the price and affordability of healthy and less healthy (current) diets of different household groups in diverse communities across the nation. We have compared results for different geographical locations/population subgroups in Australia and assessed these against international INFORMAS benchmarks. The results inform the development of policy and practice, including those relevant to mooted changes to the GST base, to promote nutrition and healthy weight and prevent chronic disease in Australia.

Targeting antigen to diverse APCs inactivates memory CD8+ T cells without eliciting tissue-destructive effector function

Memory T cells develop early during the preclinical stages of autoimmune diseases and have traditionally been considered resistant to tolerance induction. As such, they may represent a potent barrier to the successful immunotherapy of established autoimmune diseases. It was recently shown that memory CD8+ T cell responses are terminated when Ag is genetically targeted to steady-state dendritic cells. However, under these conditions, inactivation of memory CD8+ T cells is slow, allowing transiently expanded memory CD8+ T cells to exert tissue-destructive effector function. In this study, we compared different Ag-targeting strategies and show, using an MHC class II promoter to drive Ag expression in a diverse range of APCs, that CD8+ memory T cells can be rapidly inactivated by MHC class II+ hematopoietic APCs through a mechanism that involves a rapid and sustained downregulation of TCR, in which the effector response of CD8+ memory cells is rapidly truncated and Ag-expressing target tissue destruction is prevented. Our data provide the first demonstration that genetically targeting Ag to a broad range of MHC class II+ APC types is a highly efficient way to terminate memory CD8+ T cell responses to prevent tissue-destructive effector function and potentially established autoimmune diseases. Copyright © 2010 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

Drop impact on a solid surface comprising micro groove structure

Spreading and receding processes of water drops impacting on a stainless steel surface comprising rectangular shaped parallel grooves are studied experimentally. The study was confined to the impact of drops in inertia dominated flow regime with Weber number in the range 15 - 257. Measurements of spreading drop diameter and drop height were obtained during the impact process as function of time. Experimental measurements of spreading drop diameter and drop height obtained for the grooved surface were compared with those obtained for a smooth surface to elucidate the influence of surface grooves on the impact process. The grooves definitely influence both spreading and receding processes of impacting liquid drops. A more striking observation from this study is that the receding process of impacting liquid drops is dramatically changed by the groove structure for all droplet Weber number.

Minimising lateral impact derailment potential at level crossings through guard rails

Derailments due to lateral collisions between heavy road vehicles and passenger trains at level crossings (LCs) are serious safety issues. A variety of countermeasures in terms of traffic laws, communication technology and warning devices are used for minimising LC accidents; however, innovative civil infrastructure solution is rare. This paper presents a study of the efficacy of guard rail system (GRS) to minimise the derailment potential of trains laterally collided by heavy road vehicles at LCs. For this purpose, a three-dimensional dynamic model of a passenger train running on a ballasted track fitted with guard rail subject to lateral impact caused by a road truck is formulated. This model is capable of predicting the lateral collision-induced derailments with and without GRS. Based on dynamic simulations, derailment prevention mechanism of the GRS is illustrated. Sensitivities of key parameters of the GRS, such as the flange way width, the installation height and contact friction, to the efficacy of GRS are reported. It is shown that guard rails can enhance derailment safety against lateral impacts at LCs.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

Consumers' attitudes towards food prices

High food prices can be a barrier to healthy eating because some of the food products may be perceived as expensive. Understanding the role of price in food purchase situations is important, but only a few studies document attitudes towards expensiveness or cheapness in foods. In this thesis, the role of food price in food choice and consumers attitudes towards food prices were investigated and the aim was to measure the food price attitudes. Food price attitudes were hypothesized to have an impact on consumers willingness to pay judgements and their willingness to buy premium-priced food products. First, using qualitative data consisting of 40 thematic interviews the experiences of the expensiveness and cheapness in foods were explored by using functional food products as a target product category. Second, a Food Price Attitude Scale was developed using four quantitative surveys representing Finnish consumers (2001 N=1158; 2002 N=1156; 2004a N=1113; 2004b N=1027). Food price attitudes were confirmed to compose a multidimensional construct and consumers may perceive positive and negative attitudes towards both high and low food prices. Finnish consumers were clustered into four groups based on their food price attitudes. In the first group, 29% of respondents were negative towards high food prices and they were willing to seek low food prices, whereas respondents in another group (22%) were positive towards high food prices. Additionally, in the third group consumers (17%) were willing to pay for high quality but still looked for low food prices. In the fourth group, consumers (32%) were willing to look for low food prices, unwilling to pay for high quality, but high-priced food was appreciated if offered to others. It was found in qualitative data that consumers willingness to accept high prices in foods was connected to price fairness and to justifications. Feelings of fairness or unfairness might be a core element of food price attitudes. Using quantitative methods, it was confirmed that positive attitudes towards high food prices in terms of high quality enhanced consumers willingness to buy food products with certain benefits (e.g., a health claim). Additionally, the favourable attitude towards low food prices lowered the willingness to pay estimates. This type of tendency, however, can create a possible bias in small convenient samples. In the food price-related research, it is advisable to take into account food price attitudes as possible background variables. The Food Price Attitude Scale needs further development to increase construct validity even though, in the present study, it was shown to be a reliable measure with good predictive and discriminant validity. The theoretical and managerial implications of the results for a better understanding of the role of price in consumers food purchases are discussed.

Barrier crossing in one and three dimensions by a long chain

We consider the Kramers problem for a long chain polymer trapped in a biased double-well potential. Initially the polymer is in the less stable well and it can escape from this well to the other well by the motion of its N beads across the barrier to attain the configuration having lower free energy. In one dimension we simulate the crossing and show that the results are in agreement with the kink mechanism suggested earlier. In three dimensions, it has not been possible to get an analytical `kink solution' for an arbitrary potential; however, one can assume the form of the solution of the nonlinear equation as a kink solution and then find a double-well potential in three dimensions. To verify the kink mechanism, simulations of the dynamics of a discrete Rouse polymer model in a double well in three dimensions are carried out. We find that the time of crossing is proportional to the chain length, which is in agreement with the results for the kink mechanism. The shape of the kink solution is also in agreement with the analytical solution in both one and three dimensions.

Evaluation of damage in foam sandwich components of aircraft

Tn the current set of investigations foam sandwich panels and some components of an aircraft comprising of two layer Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic(GFRP) face sheets of thickness 1mm each with polyurethene foam as filler of thickness 8mm were examined for detection of debonds and defects. Known defects were introduced in the panels in the form of teflon insert, full foam removal,half foam removal and edge delamination by inserting a teflon and removing it after curing. Two such panels were subjected to acoustic impact and analysis was carried out in both time and frequency domains. These panels were ultrasonically scanned to obtain C-SCAN images as reference to evaluate Acoustic Impact Test (AIT) results. In addition both Fokker bond testing and AIT(woodpecker) were carried out on the same panels and also some critical joints on the actual component. The results obtained from these tests are presented and discussed in this paper.

Dynamical Evolution of Wear Particles in Nanocontacts

Nanoscale surface modification, by the interaction of sliding surfaces and mobile nanoparticles, is a critical parameter for controlling friction, wear and failure of surface structures. Here we demonstrate how nanoparticles form and interact in real-time at moving nanocontacts, with reciprocating wear tests imaged in situ at the nanoscale over > 300 cycles in a transmission electron microscope. Between sliding surfaces, friction-formed nanoparticles are observed with rolling, sliding and spinning motions, dependant on localised contact conditions and particle geometry. Over periods of many scratch cycles, nanoparticles dynamically agglomerate into elongated clusters, and dissociate into smaller particulates. We also show that the onset of rolling motion of these particles accompanies a reduction in measured friction. Introduction of nanoparticles with optimum shape and property can thus be used to control friction and wear in microdevices.

Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.

Unzipping Carbon Nanotubes at High Impact

The way nanostructures behave and mechanically respond to high impact collision is a topic of intrigue. For anisotropic nanostructures, such as carbon nanotubes, this response will be complicated based on the impact geometry. Here we report the result of hypervelocity impact of nanotubes against solid targets and show that impact produces a large number of defects in the nanotubes, as well as rapid atom evaporation, leading to their unzipping along the nanotube axis. Fully atomistic reactive molecular dynamics simulations are used to gain further insights of the pathways and deformation and fracture mechanisms of nanotubes under high energy mechanical impact. Carbon nanotubes have been unzipped into graphene nanoribbons before using chemical treatments but here the instability of nanotubes against formation, fracture, and unzipping is revealed purely through mechanical impact. defect

Nonlinear Differential Games-Based Impact-Angle-Constrained Guidance Law

The problem of intercepting a maneuvering target at a prespecified impact angle is posed in nonlinear zero-sum differential games framework. A feedback form solution is proposed by extending state-dependent Riccati equation method to nonlinear zero-sum differential games. An analytic solution is obtained for the state-dependent Riccati equation corresponding to the impact-angle-constrained guidance problem. The impact-angle-constrained guidance law is derived using the states line-of-sight rate and projected terminal impact angle error. Local asymptotic stability conditions for the closed-loop system corresponding to these states are studied. Time-to-go estimation is not explicitly required to derive and implement the proposed guidance law. Performance of the proposed guidance law is validated using two-dimensional simulation of the relative nonlinear kinematics as well as a thrust-driven realistic interceptor model.