Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models

We advance the proposition that dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models should not only be estimated and evaluated with full information methods. These require that the complete system of equations be specified properly. Some limited information analysis, which focuses upon specific equations, is therefore likely to be a useful complement to full system analysis. Two major problems occur when implementing limited information methods. These are the presence of forward-looking expectations in the system as well as unobservable non-stationary variables. We present methods for dealing with both of these difficulties, and illustrate the interaction between full and limited information methods using a well-known model.

Sustainability performance of construction : conceptual models of satisfaction levels in construction projects

In general, the performance of construction projects, including their sustainability performance, does not meet optimal expectations. One aspect of this is the performance of the participants who are independent and make a significance impact on overall project outcomes. Of these participants, the client is traditionally the owner of the project, the architect or engineer is engaged as the lead designer and a contractor is selected to construct the facilities. Generally, the performance of the participants is gauged by considering three main factors, namely, time, cost and quality. As the level of satisfaction is a subjective issue, it is rarely used in the performance evaluation of construction work. Recently, various approaches to the measurement of satisfaction have been made in an attempt to determine the performance of construction project outcomes - for instance, client satisfaction, customer satisfaction, contractor satisfaction, occupant satisfaction and home buyer satisfaction. These not only identify the performance of the construction project but are also used to improve and maintain relationships. In addition, these assessments are necessary for the continuous improvement and enhanced cooperation of participants. The measurement of satisfaction levels primarily involves expectations and perceptions. An expectation can be regarded as a comparative standard of different needs, motives and beliefs, while a perception is a subjective interpretation that is influenced by moods, experiences and values. This suggests that the disparity between perceptions and expectations may possibly be used to represent different levels of satisfaction. However, this concept is rather new and in need of further investigation. This chapter examines the methods commonly practised in measuring satisfaction levels today and the advantages of promoting these methods. The results provide a preliminary review of the advantages of satisfaction measurement in the construction industry and recommendations are made concerning the most appropriate methods to use in identifying the performance of project outcomes.

China's Creative Industries : Copyright, Social Network Markets and the Business of Culture in a Digital Age

China’s Creative Industries explores the role of new technologies, globalization and higher levels of connectivity in re-defining relationships between ‘producers’ and ‘consumers’ in 21st century China. The evolution of new business models, the impact of state regulation, the rise of entrepreneurial consumers and the role of intellectual property rights are traced through China’s film, music and fashion industries. The book argues that social network markets, consumer entrepreneurship and business model evolution are driving forces in the production and commercialization of cultural commodities. In doing so it raises important questions about copyright’s role in the business of culture, particularly in a digital age.

Generation evolution in GA application on railway traffic control

This paper presents a Genetic Algorithms (GA) approach to resolve traffic conflicts at a railway junction. The formulation of the problem for the suitable application of GA will be discussed and three neighborhoods have been proposed for generation evolution. The performance of the GA is evaluated by computer simulation. This study paves the way for more applications of artificial intelligence techniques on a rather conservative industry.

Wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods for complex process models

Many industrial processes and systems can be modelled mathematically by a set of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Finding a solution to such a PDF model is essential for system design, simulation, and process control purpose. However, major difficulties appear when solving PDEs with singularity. Traditional numerical methods, such as finite difference, finite element, and polynomial based orthogonal collocation, not only have limitations to fully capture the process dynamics but also demand enormous computation power due to the large number of elements or mesh points for accommodation of sharp variations. To tackle this challenging problem, wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have been recently developed with successful applications to a fixedbed adsorption column model. Our investigation has shown that recent advances in wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have the potential to be adopted for solving more complicated dynamic system models. This chapter will highlight the successful applications of these new methods in solving complex models of simulated-moving-bed (SMB) chromatographic processes. A SMB process is a distributed parameter system and can be mathematically described by a set of partial/ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations. These equations are highly coupled; experience wave propagations with steep front, and require significant numerical effort to solve. To demonstrate the numerical computing power of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods, a single column chromatographic process modelled by a Transport-Dispersive-Equilibrium linear model is investigated first. Numerical solutions from the upwind-1 finite difference, wavelet-collocation, and high resolution methods are evaluated by quantitative comparisons with the analytical solution for a range of Peclet numbers. After that, the advantages of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are further demonstrated through applications to a dynamic SMB model for an enantiomers separation process. This research has revealed that for a PDE system with a low Peclet number, all existing numerical methods work well, but the upwind finite difference method consumes the most time for the same degree of accuracy of the numerical solution. The high resolution method provides an accurate numerical solution for a PDE system with a medium Peclet number. The wavelet collocation method is capable of catching up steep changes in the solution, and thus can be used for solving PDE models with high singularity. For the complex SMB system models under consideration, both the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are good candidates in terms of computation demand and prediction accuracy on the steep front. The high resolution methods have shown better stability in achieving steady state in the specific case studied in this Chapter.

Letting go of Neo-Liberalism (with some help from Michel Foucault)

Neo-liberalism has become one of the boom concepts of our time. From its original reference point as a descriptor of the economics of the “Chicago School” such as Milton Friedman, or authors such as Friedrich von Hayek, neo-liberalism has become an all-purpose descriptor and explanatory device for phenomena as diverse as Bollywood weddings, standardized testing in schools, violence in Australian cinema, and the digitization of content in public libraries. Moreover, it has become an entirely pejorative term: no-one refers to their own views as “neo-liberal”, but it rather refers to the erroneous views held by others, whether they acknowledge this or not. Neo-liberalism as it has come to be used, then, bears many of the hallmarks of a dominant ideology theory in the classical Marxist sense, even if it is often not explored in these terms. This presentation will take the opportunity provided by the English language publication of Michel Foucault’s 1978-79 lectures, under the title of The Birth of Biopolitics, to consider how he used the term neo-liberalism, and how this equates with its current uses in critical social and cultural theory. It will be argued that Foucault did not understand neo-liberalism as a dominant ideology in these lectures, but rather as marking a point of inflection in the historical evolution of liberal political philosophies of government. It will also be argued that his interpretation of neo-liberalism was more nuanced and more comparative than the more recent uses of Foucault in the literature on neo-liberalism. It will also look at how Foucault develops comparative historical models of liberal capitalism in The Birth of Biopolitics, arguing that this dimension of his work has been lost in more recent interpretations, which tend to retro-fit Foucault to contemporary critiques of either U.S. neo-conservatism or the “Third Way” of Tony Blair’s New Labour in the UK.

GVS : A flexible, low-end, 3D visualisation framework for enhancing conceptual groundwater models for community, management and simulations

In this paper we discuss an advanced, 3D groundwater visualisation and animation system that allows scientists, government agencies and community groups to better understand the groundwater processes that effect community planning and decision-making. The system is unique in that it has been designed to optimise community engagement. Although it incorporates a powerful visualisation engine, this open-source system can be freely distributed and boasts a simple user interface allowing individuals to run and investigate the models on their own PCs and gain intimate knowledge of the groundwater systems. The initial version of the Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS v1.0), was developed from a coastal delta setting (Bundaberg, QLD), and then applied to a basalt catchment area (Obi Obi Creek, Maleny, QLD). Several major enhancements have been developed to produce higher quality visualisations, including display of more types of data, support for larger models and improved user interaction. The graphics and animation capabilities have also been enhanced, notably the display of boreholes, depth logs and time-series water level surfaces. The GVS software remains under continual development and improvement

A 'conceptual models' approach to organisational resilience

Gibson and Tarrant discuss the range of inter-dependant factors needed to manage organisational resilience. Over the last few years there has been considerable interest in the idea of resilience across all areas of society. Like any new area or field this has produced a vast array of definitions, processes, management systems and measurement tools which together have clouded the concept of resilience. Many of us have forgotten that ultimately resilience is not just about ‘bouncing back from adversity’ but is more broadly concerned with adaptive capacity and how we better understand and address uncertainty in our internal and external environments. The basis of organisational resilience is a fundamental understanding and treatment of risk, particularly non-routine or disruption related risk. This paper presents a number of conceptual models of organisational resilience that we have developed to demonstrate the range of inter-dependant factors that need to be considered in the management of such risk. These conceptual models illustrate that effective resilience is built upon a range of different strategies that enhance both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ organisational capabilities . They emphasise the concept that there is no quick fix, no single process, management system or software application that will create resilience.

Forecasting negative effects of monotony and sensation seeking on performance during a vigilance task

The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create hypovigilance and impair performance towards critical events. Identifying such impairment in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict it in real-time. This pilot study aims to show that performance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling taking into account sensation seeking levels. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants‟ performance. The framework for prediction developed on this task could be extended to a monotonous driving task. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants‟ lapses in alertness. Driver‟s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to a surrogate measure: the participant‟s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important decline in performance in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

Clone Detection in Repositories of Business Process Models

Business process model repositories capture precious knowledge about an organization or a business domain. In many cases, these repositories contain hundreds or even thousands of models and they represent several man-years of effort. Over time, process model repositories tend to accumulate duplicate fragments, as new process models are created by copying and merging fragments from other models. This calls for methods to detect duplicate fragments in process models that can be refactored as separate subprocesses in order to increase readability and maintainability. This paper presents an indexing structure to support the fast detection of clones in large process model repositories. Experiments show that the algorithm scales to repositories with hundreds of models. The experimental results also show that a significant number of non-trivial clones can be found in process model repositories taken from industrial practice.

Online service delivery models : an international comparison in the public sector

Governments around the world are facing the challenge of responding to increased expectations by their customers with regard to public service delivery. Citizens, for example, expect governments to provide better and more efficient electronic services on the Web in an integrated way. Online portals have become the approach of choice in online service delivery to meet these requirements and become more customer-focussed. This study describes and analyses existing variants of online service delivery models based upon an empirical study and provides valuable insights for researchers and practitioners in government. For this study, we have conducted interviews with senior management representatives from five international governments. Based on our findings, we distinguish three different classes of service delivery models. We describe and characterise each of these models in detail and provide an in-depth discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches.

Fragment-based version management for repositories of business process models

As organizations reach higher levels of Business Process Management maturity, they tend to accumulate large collections of process models. These repositories may contain thousands of activities and be managed by different stakeholders with varying skills and responsibilities. However, while being of great value, these repositories induce high management costs. Thus, it becomes essential to keep track of the various model versions as they may mutually overlap, supersede one another and evolve over time. We propose an innovative versioning model and associated storage structure, specifically designed to maximize sharing across process model versions, and to automatically handle change propagation. The focal point of this technique is to version single process model fragments, rather than entire process models. Indeed empirical evidence shows that real-life process model repositories have numerous duplicate fragments. Experiments on two industrial datasets confirm the usefulness of our technique.

Estimation of parameters for macroparasite population evolution using approximate Bayesian computation

We estimate the parameters of a stochastic process model for a macroparasite population within a host using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The immunity of the host is an unobserved model variable and only mature macroparasites at sacrifice of the host are counted. With very limited data, process rates are inferred reasonably precisely. Modeling involves a three variable Markov process for which the observed data likelihood is computationally intractable. ABC methods are particularly useful when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. The ABC algorithm we present is based on sequential Monte Carlo, is adaptive in nature, and overcomes some drawbacks of previous approaches to ABC. The algorithm is validated on a test example involving simulated data from an autologistic model before being used to infer parameters of the Markov process model for experimental data. The fitted model explains the observed extra-binomial variation in terms of a zero-one immunity variable, which has a short-lived presence in the host.

Models of collective cell spreading with variable cell aspect ratio : a motivation for degenerate diffusion models

Continuum diffusion models are often used to represent the collective motion of cell populations. Most previous studies have simply used linear diffusion to represent collective cell spreading, while others found that degenerate nonlinear diffusion provides a better match to experimental cell density profiles. In the cell modeling literature there is no guidance available with regard to which approach is more appropriate for representing the spreading of cell populations. Furthermore, there is no knowledge of particular experimental measurements that can be made to distinguish between situations where these two models are appropriate. Here we provide a link between individual-based and continuum models using a multi-scale approach in which we analyze the collective motion of a population of interacting agents in a generalized lattice-based exclusion process. For round agents that occupy a single lattice site, we find that the relevant continuum description of the system is a linear diffusion equation, whereas for elongated rod-shaped agents that occupy L adjacent lattice sites we find that the relevant continuum description is connected to the porous media equation (pme). The exponent in the nonlinear diffusivity function is related to the aspect ratio of the agents. Our work provides a physical connection between modeling collective cell spreading and the use of either the linear diffusion equation or the pme to represent cell density profiles. Results suggest that when using continuum models to represent cell population spreading, we should take care to account for variations in the cell aspect ratio because different aspect ratios lead to different continuum models.

American public journalism versus other international media models

Chapter 2 of 'International Journalism and Democracy' provides examples of what the author dubs "deliberative journalism". Following a definition of deliberative journalism in Chapter 1, the book's second chapter examines major models of deliberative journalism that are in operation around the world. These models include public journalism, citizen journalism, community and alternative media, development journalism and peace journalism. The author argues that when these new forms of journalism are practiced well, they extend people's ability to identify, express, understand and respond to politics and issues affecting their communities. However, the main models of deliberative journalism all have contentious elements. Many deliberative journalism practioners have been subjected to criticism for lack of objectivity and poor professional standards. Many of their activities have clearly been ill-conceived. The author also finds that neither professional nor citizen journalists have a strong understanding of what constitutes "good practice" in deliberative journalism. Furthermore, there is much debate as to whether the type of "citizen journalism" that is posted intermittently on Facebook, Twitter, blogs and other social media can even be defined as "journalism". The practice of deliberative journalism can potentially contribute to public deliberation, but it does not always do so in any immediate or obvious way. The author finds that even so, deliberative journalism indirectly strengthens the environments that support fertile deliberation and decision making. (See the Extended Abstract for further details.)