Evaluación de modelos multivariados para la simulación estocástica de lluvia a escala diaria

La obtención de leyes de frecuencia de caudales de avenida mediante simulación hidrometeorológica requiere de la extensión de las series observadas de lluvia mediante series sintéticas que conserven sus propiedades extremales. Para cuencas pequeñas, cuya lluvia media pueda asimilarse a la registrada en un único pluviómetro, existen varios modelos puntuales que pueden realizar eficazmente la tarea. En el caso de cuencas medianas y grandes, deben utilizarse modelos multivariados, cuya calibración es más difícil que en el caso univariado. El objetivo de este trabajo es la simulación estocástica de lluvias a escala a través del empleo de un modelo multivariado en el tiempo y en el espacio. Para ello se ha empleado el programa Rainsim, que se basa en el modelo espacio-temporal de Neyman-Scott de pulsos rectangulares (e.g. Coperwait et al., 2002; Fowler et al., 2005; Burton et al., 2008). A partir de series históricas de lluvias se obtienen sus estadísticos, con los que se ajustan los parámetros del modelo para poder generar largas series de precipitaciones. En el trabajo se ha empleado el modelo Rainsim en un caso univariado y otro multivariado con tres pluviómetros, y se han comparado los resultados. El caso univariado es el embalse de Alloz, situado en la cuenca del Ebro, que cuenta con un pluviómetro con una serie histórica de 43 años con paso diario. En el caso multivariado se ha trabajado con el embalse de Fuensanta, situado en la cuenca del Segura, donde se escogieron tres pluviómetros (Gontar, Arguellite y Siles), que cuentan con series de datos de precipitación diaria de 31, 42 y 22 años. En los trabajos realizados se han obtenido resultados muy satisfactorios para el modelo puntual de un pluviómetro estudiado en la cuenca de Alloz, el comparar el comportamiento extremal de los datos observados y los datos simulados. En cuanto al modelo multivariado, los datos simulados presentan un comportamiento no tan acertado como en el caso univariado.

SONIA REGINA PRADO

A dissertação teve como objetivo principal estudar como uma Instituição de Ensino Superior Privada (IES) atuante no Brasil tem crescido pós Lei de Diretrizes e Bases (LDB) de 1996 até 2015, por meio da análise do curso de bacharelado em Administração de Empresas, nas modalidades: presencial, EAD e Flex (semipresencial). Para este fim, foi realizada uma pesquisa exploratória, de caráter qualitativo baseada no método do estudo de caso. Para coleta de evidências foram analisados relatórios corporativos (Annual Report, Relatórios Internos e outros documentos), entrevistas baseadas em roteiro semiestruturado com gestores da IES privada e observações. Dentre os principais achados, verificou-se que as principais estratégicas de crescimento da IES privada estudada se basearam em fusões e aquisições de outras IES, abertura de novos polos de EAD, na abertura de novas unidades próprias, bem como em inovações em várias dimensões da organização. Os programas governamentais de financiamento aos alunos também são fortes contribuintes para este crescimento, como o Fundo de Financiamento ao Estudante do Ensino Superior (FIES) e o Programa Universidade para Todos (Prouni). Com essa nova realidade, o ensino superior privado recebeu incentivo e facilitação para o seu crescimento, a um ritmo acelerado. Consequentemente pode-se concluir que a IES privada estudada adotou as seguintes estratégias de crescimento: Expansão orgânica com fusões/ aquisições de Instituições menores, com desenvolvimento de planos para todos os campi Brasil; Greenfield (por meio de solicitação de autorização de novas unidades e/ou cursos) em cidades sem possibilidades de aquisições/fusões, e aumentando o número de vagas/ matriculas nas unidades já existentes, aderiu aos programas do governo e também cuidou da evasão por meio de: Seguro educacional; gestão preparada para atender necessidades do discente; Sistema de Ensino com currículos integrados nacionalmente; Intercâmbio de alunos e professores entre as diversas unidades em todas as regiões do país e padronização dos processos.

Coexpression of factor VIII heavy and light chain adeno-associated viral vectors produces biologically active protein

We are interested in using recombinant adeno-associated viral vectors in the treatment of hemophilia A. Because of the size constraints of recombinant adeno-associated viral vectors, we delivered the heavy and light chains of the human factor 8 (hFVIII) cDNA independently by using two separate vectors. Recombinant AAV vectors were constructed that utilized the human elongation factor 1α promoter, a human growth factor polyadenylation signal, and the cDNA sequences encoding either the heavy or light chain of hFVIII. Portal vein injections of each vector alone, a combination of both vectors, or a hFIX control vector were performed in C57BL/6 mice. An ELISA specific for the light chain of hFVIII demonstrated very high levels (2–10 μg/ml) of protein expression in animals injected with the light chain vector alone or with both vectors. We utilized a chromogenic assay in combination with an antibody specific to hFVIII to determine the amount of biologically active hFVIII in mouse plasma. In animals injected with both the heavy and light chain vectors, greater than physiological levels (200–400 ng/ml) of biologically active hFVIII were produced. This suggests that coexpression of the heavy and light chains of hFVIII may be a feasible approach for treatment of hemophilia A.

Type II regulatory subunits are not required for the anchoring-dependent modulation of Ca2+ channel activity by cAMP-dependent protein kinase

Preferential phosphorylation of specific proteins by cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) may be mediated in part by the anchoring of PKA to a family of A-kinase anchor proteins (AKAPs) positioned in close proximity to target proteins. This interaction is thought to depend on binding of the type II regulatory (RII) subunits to AKAPs and is essential for PKA-dependent modulation of the α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid/kainate receptor, the L-type Ca2+ channel, and the KCa channel. We hypothesized that the targeted disruption of the gene for the ubiquitously expressed RIIα subunit would reveal those tissues and signaling events that require anchored PKA. RIIα knockout mice appear normal and healthy. In adult skeletal muscle, RIα protein levels increased to partially compensate for the loss of RIIα. Nonetheless, a reduction in both catalytic (C) subunit protein levels and total kinase activity was observed. Surprisingly, the anchored PKA-dependent potentiation of the L-type Ca2+ channel in RIIα knockout skeletal muscle was unchanged compared with wild type although it was more sensitive to inhibitors of PKA–AKAP interactions. The C subunit colocalized with the L-type Ca2+ channel in transverse tubules in wild-type skeletal muscle and retained this localization in knockout muscle. The RIα subunit was shown to bind AKAPs, although with a 500-fold lower affinity than the RIIα subunit. The potentiation of the L-type Ca2+ channel in RIIα knockout mouse skeletal muscle suggests that, despite a lower affinity for AKAP binding, RIα is capable of physiologically relevant anchoring interactions.

RAP74 induces promoter contacts by RNA polymerase II upstream and downstream of a DNA bend centered on the TATA box

RAP74, the large subunit of transcription factor IIF, associates with a preinitiation complex containing RNA polymerase II (pol II) and other general initiation factors. We have mapped the location of RAP74 in close proximity to promoter DNA at similar distances both upstream and downstream of a DNA bend centered on the TATA box. Binding of RAP74 induces a conformational change that affects the position of pol II relative to that of the DNA. This reorganization of the preinitiation complex minimally requires the N-terminal region of RAP74 containing both its RAP30-binding domain and another region necessary for accurate transcription in vitro. We propose a role for RAP74 in controlling the topological organization of the pol II preinitiation complex.

A second promoter provides an alternative target for therapeutic up-regulation of utrophin in Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an inherited muscle-wasting disease caused by the absence of a muscle cytoskeletal protein, dystrophin. We have previously shown that utrophin, the autosomal homologue of dystrophin, is able to compensate for the absence of dystrophin in a mouse model of DMD; we have therefore undertaken a detailed study of the transcriptional regulation of utrophin to identify means of effecting its up-regulation in DMD muscle. We have previously isolated a promoter element lying within the CpG island at the 5′ end of the gene and have shown it to be synaptically regulated in vivo. In this paper, we show that there is an alternative promoter lying within the large second intron of the utrophin gene, 50 kb 3′ to exon 2. The promoter is highly regulated and drives transcription of a widely expressed unique first exon that splices into a common full-length mRNA at exon 3. The two utrophin promoters are independently regulated, and we predict that they respond to discrete sets of cellular signals. These findings significantly contribute to understanding the molecular physiology of utrophin expression and are important because the promoter reported here provides an alternative target for transcriptional activation of utrophin in DMD muscle. This promoter does not contain synaptic regulatory elements and might, therefore, be a more suitable target for pharmacological manipulation than the previously described promoter.

Keratocytes Generate Traction Forces in Two PhasesV⃞

Forces generated by goldfish keratocytes and Swiss 3T3 fibroblasts have been measured with nanonewton precision and submicrometer spatial resolution. Differential interference contrast microscopy was used to visualize deformations produced by traction forces in elastic substrata, and interference reflection microscopy revealed sites of cell-substratum adhesions. Force ranged from a few nanonewtons at submicrometer spots under the lamellipodium to several hundred nanonewtons under the cell body. As cells moved forward, centripetal forces were applied by lamellipodia at sites that remained stationary on the substratum. Force increased and abruptly became lateral at the boundary of the lamellipodium and the cell body. When the cell retracted at its posterior margin, cell-substratum contact area decreased more rapidly than force, so that stress (force divided by area) increased as the cell pulled away. An increase in lateral force was associated with widening of the cell body. These mechanical data suggest an integrated, two-phase mechanism of cell motility: (1) low forces in the lamellipodium are applied in the direction of cortical flow and cause the cell body to be pulled forward; and (2) a component of force at the flanks pulls the rear margins forward toward the advancing cell body, whereas a large lateral component contributes to detachment of adhesions without greatly perturbing forward movement.

A recipe for randomness

Despite many diverse theories that address closely related themes—e.g., probability theory, algorithmic complexity, cryptoanalysis, and pseudorandom number generation—a near-void remains in constructive methods certified to yield the desired “random” output. Herein, we provide explicit techniques to produce broad sets of both highly irregular finite and normal infinite sequences, based on constructions and properties derived from approximate entropy (ApEn), a computable formulation of sequential irregularity. Furthermore, for infinite sequences, we considerably refine normality, by providing methods for constructing diverse classes of normal numbers, classified by the extent to which initial segments deviate from maximal irregularity.

The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

Anti-DNA antibodies are a major component of the intrathecal B cell response in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory demyelinating disease of unknown cause that afflicts the central nervous system. MS is typified by a highly clonally restricted antigen-driven antibody response that is confined largely to the central nervous system. The major antigenic targets of this response and the role of antibody in disease pathogenesis remain unclear. To help resolve these issues, we cloned the IgG repertoire directly from active plaque and periplaque regions in MS brain and from B cells recovered from the cerebrospinal fluid of a patient with MS with subacute disease. We found that high-affinity anti-DNA antibodies are a major component of the intrathecal IgG response in the patients with MS that we studied. Furthermore, we show DNA-specific monoclonal antibodies rescued from two subjects with MS as well as a DNA-specific antibody rescued from an individual suffering from systemic lupus erythematosus bound efficiently to the surface of neuronal cells and oligodendrocytes. For two of these antibodies, cell-surface recognition was DNA dependent. Our findings indicate that anti-DNA antibodies may promote important neuropathologic mechanisms in chronic inflammatory disorders, such as MS and systemic lupus erythematosus.