Two-agent cooperative search using game models with endurance-time constraints

In this article, the problem of two Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) cooperatively searching an unknown region is addressed. The search region is discretized into hexagonal cells and each cell is assumed to possess an uncertainty value. The UAVs have to cooperatively search these cells taking limited endurance, sensor and communication range constraints into account. Due to limited endurance, the UAVs need to return to the base station for refuelling and also need to select a base station when multiple base stations are present. This article proposes a route planning algorithm that takes endurance time constraints into account and uses game theoretical strategies to reduce the uncertainty. The route planning algorithm selects only those cells that ensure the agent will return to any one of the available bases. A set of paths are formed using these cells which the game theoretical strategies use to select a path that yields maximum uncertainty reduction. We explore non-cooperative Nash, cooperative and security strategies from game theory to enhance the search effectiveness. Monte-Carlo simulations are carried out which show the superiority of the game theoretical strategies over greedy strategy for different look ahead step length paths. Within the game theoretical strategies, non-cooperative Nash and cooperative strategy perform similarly in an ideal case, but Nash strategy performs better than the cooperative strategy when the perceived information is different. We also propose a heuristic based on partitioning of the search space into sectors to reduce computational overhead without performance degradation.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Self assessment schemes for multi-agent cooperative search

In this paper, we present self assessment schemes (SAS) for multiple agents performing a search mission on an unknown terrain. The agents are subjected to limited communication and sensor ranges. The agents communicate and coordinate with their neighbours to arrive at route decisions. The self assessment schemes proposed here have very low communication and computational overhead. The SAS also has attractive features like scalability to large number of agents and fast decision-making capability. SAS can be used with partial or complete information sharing schemes during the search mission. We validate the performance of SAS using simulation on a large search space consisting of 100 agents with different information structures and self assessment schemes. We also compare the results obtained using SAS with that of a previously proposed negotiation scheme. The simulation results show that the SAS is scalable to large number of agents and can perform as good as the negotiation schemes with reduced communication requirement (almost 20% of that required for negotiation).

A modified least squares algorithm to treat associations in liquid alloys

The associated model for binary systems has been modified to include volume effects and excess entropy arising from preferential interactions between the associate and the free atoms or between the free atoms. Equations for thermodynamic mixing functions have been derived. An optimization procedure using a modified conjugate gradient method has been used to evaluate the enthalpy and entropy interaction energies, the free energy of dissociation of the complex, its temperature dependance and the size of the associate. An expression for the concentration—concentration structure factor [Scc (0)] has been deduced from the modified associated solution model. The analysis has been applied to the thermodynamic mixing functions of liquid Ga-Te alloys at 1120 K, believed to contain Ga2Te3 associates. It is observed that the modified associated solution model incorporating volume effects and terms for the temperature dependance of interaction energies, describes the thermodynamic properties of Ga-Te system satisfactorily.

Assessment and mitigation of agricultural water pollution

Yhteenveto: Maatalouden aiheuttama vesistönkuormitus ja sen vähentäminen

Cooperative Replies to Unbelievable Assertions

We propose a dialogue protocol for situations in which an agent makes to another agent an assertion that the other agent finds impossible to believe. In this interaction, unbelievable assertions are rejected using explanations formed by logical interpolation and new assertions are being made such that all previous rebuttals are taken into account.

Relay Selection and Data Transmission Throughput Tradeoff in Cooperative Systems

A common and practical paradigm in cooperative communications is the use of a dynamically selected 'best' relay to decode and forward information from a source to a destination. Such a system consists of two core phases: a relay selection phase, in which the system expends resources to select the best relay, and a data transmission phase, in which it uses the selected relay to forward data to the destination. In this paper, we study and optimize the trade-off between the selection and data transmission phase durations. We derive closed-form expressions for the overall throughput of a non-adaptive system that includes the selection phase overhead, and then optimize the selection and data transmission phase durations. Corresponding results are also derived for an adaptive system in which the relays can vary their transmission rates. Our results show that the optimal selection phase overhead can be significant even for fast selection algorithms. Furthermore, the optimal selection phase duration depends on the number of relays and whether adaptation is used.

Temporal associations in fig-wasp-ant interactions: diel and phenological patterns

In a complex multitrophic plant-animal interaction system in which there are direct and indirect interactions between species, comprehending the dynamics of these multiple partners is very important for an understanding of how the system is structured. We investigated the plant Ficus racemosa L. (Moraceae) and its community of obligatory mutualistic and parasitic fig wasps (Hymenoptera: Chalcidoidea) that develop within the fig inflorescence or syconium, as well as their interaction with opportunistic ants. We focused on temporal resource partitioning among members of the fig wasp community over the development cycle of the fig syconia during which wasp oviposition and development occur and we studied the activity rhythm of the ants associated with this community. We found that the seven members of the wasp community partitioned their oviposition across fig syconium development phenology and showed interspecific variation in activity across the day-night cycle. The wasps presented a distinct sequence in their arrival at fig syconia for oviposition, with the parasitoid wasps following the galling wasps. Although fig wasps are known to be largely diurnal, we documented night oviposition in several fig wasp species for the first time. Ant activity on the fig syconia was correlated with wasp activity and was dependent on whether the ants were predatory or trophobiont-tending species; only numbers of predatory ants increased during peak arrivals of the wasps.

Associations of interleukin-1 (IL-1) gene variation and IL-1 receptor antagonist phenotypes with immunological responses, metabolic dysregulation and type 2 diabetes

The upstream proinflammatory interleukin-1 (IL-1) cytokines, together with a naturally occurring IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra), play a significant role in several diseases and physiologic conditions. The IL-1 proteins affect glucose homeostasis at multiple levels contributing to vascular injuries and metabolic dysregulations that precede diabetes. An association between IL-1 gene variations and IL-1Ra levels has been suggested, and genetic studies have reported associations with metabolic dysregulation and altered inflammatory responses. The principal aims of this study were to: 1) examine the associations of IL-1 gene variation and IL-1Ra expression in the development and persistence of thyroid antibodies in subacute thyroiditis; 2) investigate the associations of common variants in the IL-1 gene family with plasma glucose and insulin concentrations, glucose homeostasis measures and prevalent diabetes in a representative population sample; 3) investigate genetic and non-genetic determinants of IL-1Ra phenotypes in a cross-sectional setting in three independent study populations; 4) investigate in a prospective setting (a) whether variants of the IL-1 gene family are predictors for clinically incident diabetes in two population-based observational cohort studies; and (b) whether the IL-1Ra levels predict the progression of metabolic syndrome to overt diabetes during the median follow-up of 10.8 and 7.1 years. Results from on patients with subacte thyroiditis showed that the systemic IL-1Ra levels are elevated during a specific proinflammatory response and they correlated with C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Genetic variation in the IL-1 family seemed to have an association with the appearance of thyroid peroxidase antibodies and persisting local autoimmune responses during the follow-up. Analysis of patients suffering from diabetes and metabolic traits suggested that genetic IL-1 variation and IL-1Ra play a role in glucose homeostasis and in the development of type 2 diabetes. The coding IL-1 beta SNP rs1143634 was associated with traits related to insulin resistance in cross-sectional analyses. Two haplotype variants of the IL-1 beta gene were associated with prevalent diabetes or incident diabetes in a prospective setting and both of these haplotypes were tagged by rs1143634. Three variants of the IL-1Ra gene and one of the IL-1 beta gene were consistently identified as significant, independent determinants of the IL-1Ra phenotype in two or three populations. The proportion of the phenotypic variation explained by the genetic factors was modest however, while obesity and other metabolic traits explained a larger part. Body mass index was the strongest predictor of systemic IL-1Ra concentration overall. Furthermore, the age-adjusted IL-1Ra concentrations were elevated in individuals with metabolic syndrome or diabetes when compared to those free of metabolic dysregulation. In prospective analyses the systemic IL-1Ra levels were found as independent predictors for the development of diabetes in people with metabolic syndrome even after adjustment for multiple other factors, including plasma glucose and CRP levels. The predictive power of IL-1Ra was better than that of CRP. The prospective results also provided some evidence for a role of common IL-1 alpha promoter SNP rs1800587 in the development of type 2 diabetes among men and suggested that the role may be gender specific. Likewise, common variations in the IL-1 beta coding region may have a gender specific association with diabetes development. Further research on the potential benefits of IL-1Ra measurements in identifying individuals at high risk for diabetes, who then could be targeted for specific treatment interventions, is warranted. It has been reported in the recent literature that IL-1Ra secreted from adipose tissue has beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis. Furthermore, treatment with recombinant human IL-1Ra has been shown to have a substantial therapeutic potential. The genetic results from the prospective analyses performed in this study remain inconclusive, but together with the cross-sectional analyses they suggest gender-specific effects of the IL-1 variants on the risk of diabetes. Larger studies with more extensive genotyping and resequencing may help to pinpoint the exact variants responsible and to further elucidate the biological mechanisms for the observed associations. This would improve our understanding of the pathways linking inflammation and obesity with glucose and insulin metabolism.

Impact of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries : a comparative study of Kenya and Zambia

This research investigates the impacts of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries and it evaluates the supply perspective of food security. This research theme is applied on the agricultural sector in Kenya and in Zambia by studying the role policies played in the maize sub-sector. An evaluation of selected policies introduced at the beginning of the 1980s is made, as well as an assessment of whether those policies influenced maize output. A theoretical model of agricultural production is then formulated to reflect cereal production in a developing country setting. This study begins with a review of the general framework and the aims of the structural adjustment programs and proceeds to their application in the maize sector in Kenya and Zambia. A literature review of the supply and demand synthesis of food security is presented with examples from various developing countries. Contrary to previous studies on food security, this study assesses two countries with divergent economic orientations. Agricultural sector response to economic and institutional policies in different settings is also evaluated. Finally, a dynamic time series econometric model is applied to assess the effects of policy on maize output. The empirical findings suggest a weak policy influence on maize output, but the precipitation and acreage variables stand out as core determinants of maize output. The policy dimension of acreage and how markets influence it is not discussed at length in this study. Due to weak land rights and tenure structures in these countries, the direct impact of policy change on land markets cannot be precisely measured. Recurring government intervention during the structural policy implementation period impeded efficient functioning of input and output markets, particularly in Zambia. Input and output prices of maize and fertilizer responded more strongly in Kenya than in Zambia, where the state often ceded to public pressure by revoking pertinent policy measures. These policy interpretations are based on the response of policy variables which are more responsive in Kenya than in Zambia. According the obtained regression results, agricultural markets in general, and the maize sub-sector in particular, responded more positively to implemented policies in Kenya, than in Zambia, which supported a more socialist economic system. It is observed in these results that in order for policies to be effective, sector and regional dimensions need to be considered. The regional and sector dimensions were not taken into account in the formulation and implementation of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s. It can be noted that countries with vibrant economic structures and institutions fared better than those which had a firm, socially founded system.

Volume effects and associations in liquid alloys

The regular associated solution model for binary systems has been modified by incorporating the size of the complex as an explicit variable. The thermodynamic properties of the liquid alloy and the interactions between theA ?B type of complex and the unassociated atoms in anA-B binary have been evaluated as a function of relative size of the complex using the activity coefficients at infinite dilution and activity data at one other composition in the binary. The computational procedure adopted for determining the concentration of clusters and interaction energies in the associated liquid is similar to that proposed by Lele and Rao. The analysis has been applied to the thermodynamic mixing functions of liquid Al-Ca alloys believed to contain Al2Ca associates. It is found that the size of the cluster significantly affects the interaction energies between the complex and the unassociated atoms, while the equilibrium constant and enthalpy change for the association reaction exhibit only minor variation, when the equations are fitted to experimental data. The interaction energy between unassociated free atoms remains virtually unaltered as the size of the complex is varied between extreme values. Accurate data on free energy, enthalpy, and volume of mixing at the same temperature on alloy systems with compound forming tendency would permit a rigorous test of the proposed model.