Optimal design for correlated processes with input-dependent noise

Optimal design for parameter estimation in Gaussian process regression models with input-dependent noise is examined. The motivation stems from the area of computer experiments, where computationally demanding simulators are approximated using Gaussian process emulators to act as statistical surrogates. In the case of stochastic simulators, which produce a random output for a given set of model inputs, repeated evaluations are useful, supporting the use of replicate observations in the experimental design. The findings are also applicable to the wider context of experimental design for Gaussian process regression and kriging. Designs are proposed with the aim of minimising the variance of the Gaussian process parameter estimates. A heteroscedastic Gaussian process model is presented which allows for an experimental design technique based on an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic models. It is empirically shown that the error of the approximation of the parameter variance by the inverse of the Fisher information is reduced as the number of replicated points is increased. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic data and a systems biology stochastic simulator, optimal designs with replicate observations are shown to outperform space-filling designs both with and without replicate observations. Guidance is provided on best practice for optimal experimental design for stochastic response models. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Classifying flexible measures in data envelopment analysis:a slack-based measure

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has gained a wide range of applications in measuring comparative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) with multiple incommensurate inputs and outputs. The standard DEA method requires that the status of all input and output variables be known exactly. However, in many real applications, the status of some measures is not clearly known as inputs or outputs. These measures are referred to as flexible measures. This paper proposes a flexible slacks-based measure (FSBM) of efficiency in which each flexible measure can play input role for some DMUs and output role for others to maximize the relative efficiency of the DMU under evaluation. Further, we will show that when an operational unit is efficient in a specific flexible measure, this measure can play both input and output roles for this unit. In this case, the optimal input/output designation for flexible measure is one that optimizes the efficiency of the artificial average unit. An application in assessing UK higher education institutions used to show the applicability of the proposed approach. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multimodal field data entry:performance and usability issues

Mobile technologies have yet to be widely adopted by the Architectural, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry despite being one of the major growth areas in computing in recent years. This lack of uptake in the AEC industry is likely due, in large part, to the combination of small screen size and inappropriate interaction demands of current mobile technologies. This paper discusses the scope for multimodal interaction design with a specific focus on speech-based interaction to enhance the suitability of mobile technology use within the AEC industry by broadening the field data input capabilities of such technologies. To investigate the appropriateness of using multimodal technology for field data collection in the AEC industry, we have developed a prototype Multimodal Field Data Entry (MFDE) application. This application, which allows concrete testing technicians to record quality control data in the field, has been designed to support two different modalities of data input speech-based data entry and stylus-based data entry. To compare the effectiveness or usability of, and user preference for, the different input options, we have designed a comprehensive lab-based evaluation of the application. To appropriately reflect the anticipated context of use within the study design, careful consideration had to be given to the key elements of a construction site that would potentially influence a test technician's ability to use the input techniques. These considerations and the resultant evaluation design are discussed in detail in this paper.

A paradigm shift:alternative interaction techniques for use with mobile & wearable devices

Desktop user interface design originates from the fact that users are stationary and can devote all of their visual resource to the application with which they are interacting. In contrast, users of mobile and wearable devices are typically in motion whilst using their device which means that they cannot devote all or any of their visual resource to interaction with the mobile application -- it must remain with the primary task, often for safety reasons. Additionally, such devices have limited screen real estate and traditional input and output capabilities are generally restricted. Consequently, if we are to develop effective applications for use on mobile or wearable technology, we must embrace a paradigm shift with respect to the interaction techniques we employ for communication with such devices.This paper discusses why it is necessary to embrace a paradigm shift in terms of interaction techniques for mobile technology and presents two novel multimodal interaction techniques which are effective alternatives to traditional, visual-centric interface designs on mobile devices as empirical examples of the potential to achieve this shift.

Multimodal 'Eyes-Free' interaction techniques for mobile devices

Mobile and wearable computers present input/output prob-lems due to limited screen space and interaction techniques. When mobile, users typically focus their visual attention on navigating their environment - making visually demanding interface designs hard to operate. This paper presents two multimodal interaction techniques designed to overcome these problems and allow truly mobile, 'eyes-free' device use. The first is a 3D audio radial pie menu that uses head gestures for selecting items. An evaluation of a range of different audio designs showed that egocentric sounds re-duced task completion time, perceived annoyance, and al-lowed users to walk closer to their preferred walking speed. The second is a sonically enhanced 2D gesture recognition system for use on a belt-mounted PDA. An evaluation of the system with and without audio feedback showed users' ges-tures were more accurate when dynamically guided by au-dio-feedback. These novel interaction techniques demon-strate effective alternatives to visual-centric interface de-signs on mobile devices.

Towards the Problems of an Evaluation of Data Uncertainty in Decision Support Systems

The question of forming aim-oriented description of an object domain of decision support process is outlined. Two main problems of an estimation and evaluation of data and knowledge uncertainty in decision support systems – straight and reverse, are formulated. Three conditions being the formalized criteria of aimoriented constructing of input, internal and output spaces of some decision support system are proposed. Definitions of appeared and hidden data uncertainties on some measuring scale are given.

Improving energy efficiency in a wireless sensor network by combining cooperative MIMO with data aggregation

In wireless sensor networks where nodes are powered by batteries, it is critical to prolong the network lifetime by minimizing the energy consumption of each node. In this paper, the cooperative multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) and data-aggregation techniques are jointly adopted to reduce the energy consumption per bit in wireless sensor networks by reducing the amount of data for transmission and better using network resources through cooperative communication. For this purpose, we derive a new energy model that considers the correlation between data generated by nodes and the distance between them for a cluster-based sensor network by employing the combined techniques. Using this model, the effect of the cluster size on the average energy consumption per node can be analyzed. It is shown that the energy efficiency of the network can significantly be enhanced in cooperative MIMO systems with data aggregation, compared with either cooperative MIMO systems without data aggregation or data-aggregation systems without cooperative MIMO, if sensor nodes are properly clusterized. Both centralized and distributed data-aggregation schemes for the cooperating nodes to exchange and compress their data are also proposed and appraised, which lead to diverse impacts of data correlation on the energy performance of the integrated cooperative MIMO and data-aggregation systems.

Essays on firm behavior and firm performance

This dissertation comprises three individual chapters in an effort to examine different explanatory variables that affect firm performance. Chapter Two proposes an additional determinant of firm survival. Based on a detailed examination of firm survival in the British automobile industry between 1895 and 1970, we conclude that a firm's selection of submarket (defined by quality level) influenced survival. In contrast to findings for the US automobile industry, there is no evidence of first-mover advantage in the market as a whole. However, we do find evidence of first-mover advantage after conditioning on submarket choice. Chapter Three examines the effects of product line expansion on firm performance in terms of survival time. Based on a detailed examination of firm survival time in the British automobile industry between 1895 and 1970, we find that diversification exerts a positive effect on firm survival. Furthermore, our findings support the literature with respect to the impacts of submarket types, pre-entry experience, and timing of entry on firm survival time. Chapter Four examines corporate diversification in U.S. manufacturing and service firms. We develop measures of how related a firm's diverse activities are using input-output data and the NAILS classification to construct indexes of "vertical relatedness" and "complementarity". Strong relationships between these two measures are found. We utilize profitability and excess value as the measure for firm performance. Econometric analysis reveals that there is no relationship between the degree of relatedness of diversification and firm performance for the study period.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on a Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Variable 360° Vector-Sum Phase Shifter With Coarse and Fine Vector Scaling

A CMOS vector-sum phase shifter covering the full 360° range is presented in this paper. Broadband operational transconductance amplifiers with variable transconductance provide coarse scaling of the quadrature vector amplitudes. Fine scaling of the amplitudes is accomplished using a passive resistive network. Expressions are derived to predict the maximum bit resolution of the phase shifter from the scaling factor of the coarse and fine vector-scaling stages. The phase shifter was designed and fabricated using the standard 130-nm CMOS process and was tested on-wafer over the frequency range of 4.9–5.9 GHz. The phase shifter delivers root mean square (rms) phase and amplitude errors of 1.25° and 0.7 dB, respectively, at the midband frequency of 5.4 GHz. The input and output return losses are both below 17 dB over the band, and the insertion loss is better than 4 dB over the band. The circuit uses an area of 0.303 mm2 excluding bonding pads and draws 28 mW from a 1.2 V supply.

Use of a Neural Network to Predict Strength and Optimum Compositions of Natural Alumina-Silica-Based Geopolymers

In order to predict compressive strength of geopolymers prepared from alumina-silica natural products, based on the effect of Al 2 O 3 /SiO 2, Na 2 O/Al 2 O 3, Na 2 O/H 2 O, and Na/[Na+K], more than 50 pieces of data were gathered from the literature. The data was utilized to train and test a multilayer artificial neural network (ANN). Therefore a multilayer feedforward network was designed with chemical compositions of alumina silicate and alkali activators as inputs and compressive strength as output. In this study, a feedforward network with various numbers of hidden layers and neurons were tested to select the optimum network architecture. The developed three-layer neural network simulator model used the feedforward back propagation architecture, demonstrated its ability in training the given input/output patterns. The cross-validation data was used to show the validity and high prediction accuracy of the network. This leads to the optimum chemical composition and the best paste can be made from activated alumina-silica natural products using alkaline hydroxide, and alkaline silicate. The research results are in agreement with mechanism of geopolymerization.


Read More: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)MT.1943-5533.0000829

Quantitative Comparison of SensibleThings and Dweet.io

The objective of this paper is to perform a quantitative comparison of Dweet.io and SensibleThings from different aspects. With the fast development of internet of things, the platforms for internet-of-things face bigger challenges. This paper will evaluate both systems in four parts. The first part shows the general comparison of input ways and output functions provided by the platforms. The second part shows the security comparison, which focuses on the protocol types of the packets and the stability during the communication. The third part shows the scalability comparison when the value becomes bigger. The fourth part shows the scalability comparison when speeding up the processes. After the comparisons, I concluded that Dweet.io is more easy to use on devices and supports more programming languages. Dweet.io realizes visualization and it can be shared. Dweet.io is safer and more stable than SensibleThings. SensibleThings provides more openness. SensibleThings has better scalability in handling big values and quick speed.

Tailoring Magnetic, Mechanical and Dielectric Properties of Magnetorheological Elastomers based on Natural Rubber and Iron by Magnetic Field Assisted Curing for Possible Applications

If magnetism is universal in nature, magnetic materials are ubiquitous. A life without magnetism is unthinkable and a day without the influence of a magnetic material is unimaginable. They find innumerable applications in the form of many passive and active devices namely, compass, electric motor, generator, microphone, loud speaker, maglev train, magnetic resonance imaging, data recording and reading, hadron collider etc. The list is endless. Such is the influence of magnetism and magnetic materials in ones day to day life. With the advent of nanoscience and nanotechnology, along with the emergence of new areas/fields such as spintronics, multiferroics and magnetic refrigeration, the importance of magnetism is ever increasing and attracting the attention of researchers worldwide. The search for a fluid which exhibits magnetism has been on for quite some time. However nature has not bestowed us with a magnetic fluid and hence it has been the dream of many researchers to synthesize a magnetic fluid which is thought to revolutionize many applications based on magnetism. The discovery of a magnetic fluid by Jacob Rabinow in the year 1952 paved the way for a new branch of Physics/Engineering which later became magnetic fluids. This gave birth to a new class of material called magnetorheological materials. Magnetorheological materials are considered superior to electrorheological materials in that magnetorheology is a contactless operation and often inexpensive.Most of the studies in the past on magnetorheological materials were based on magnetic fluids. Recently the focus has been on the solid state analogue of magnetic fluids which are called Magnetorheological Elastomers (MREs). The very word magnetorheological elastomer implies that the rheological properties of these materials can be altered by the influence of an external applied magnetic field and this process is reversible. If the application of an external magnetic field modifies the viscosity of a magnetic fluid, the effect of external magnetic stimuli on a magnetorheological elastomer is in the modification of its stiffness. They are reversible too. Magnetorheological materials exhibit variable stiffness and find applications in adaptive structures of aerospace, automotive civil and electrical engineering applications. The major advantage of MRE is that the particles are not able to settle with time and hence there is no need of a vessel to hold it. The possibility of hazardous waste leakage is no more with a solid MRE. Moreover, the particles in a solid MRE will not affect the performance and durability of the equipment. Usually MR solids work only in the pre yield region while MR fluids, typically work in the post yield state. The application of an external magnetic field modifies the stiffness constant, shear modulus and loss modulus which are complex quantities. In viscoelastic materials a part of the input energy is stored and released during each cycle and a part is dissipated as heat. The storage modulus G′ represents the capacity of the material to store energy of deformation, which contribute to material stiffness. The loss modulusG′′ represents the ability of the material to dissipate the energy of deformation. Such materials can find applications in the form of adaptive vibration absorbers (ATVAs), stiffness tunable mounts and variable impedance surfaces. MREs are an important material for automobile giants and became the focus of this research for eventual automatic vibration control, sound isolation, brakes, clutches and suspension systems