Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Kemian ylioppilaskokeen tehtävät summatiivisen arvioinnin välineenä

The main purpose of the research was to illustrate chemistry matriculation examination questions as a summative assessment tool, and represent how the questions have evolved over the years. Summative assessment and its various test item classifications, Finnish goal-oriented curriculum model, and Bloom’s Revised Taxonomy of Cognitive Objectives formed the theoretical framework for the research. The research data consisted of 257 chemistry questions from 28 matriculation examinations between 1996 and 2009. The analysed test questions were formulated according to the national upper secondary school chemistry curricula 1994, and 2003. Qualitative approach and theory-driven content analysis method were employed in the research. Peer review was used to guarantee the reliability of the results. The research was guided by the following questions: (a) What kinds of test item formats are used in chemistry matriculation examinations? (b) How the fundamentals of chemistry are included in the chemistry matriculation examination questions? (c) What kinds of cognitive knowledge and skills do the chemistry matriculation examination questions require? The research indicates that summative assessment was used diversely in chemistry matriculation examinations. The tests included various test item formats, and their combinations. The majority of the test questions were constructed-response items that were either verbal, quantitative, or experimental questions, symbol questions, or combinations of the aforementioned. The studied chemistry matriculation examinations seldom included selected-response items that can be either multiple-choice, alternate choice, or matching items. The relative emphasis of the test item formats differed slightly depending on whether the test was a part of an extensive general studies battery of tests in sciences and humanities, or a subject-specific test. The classification framework developed in the research can be applied in chemistry and science education, and also in educational research. Chemistry matriculation examinations are based on the goal-oriented curriculum model, and cover relatively well the fundamentals of chemistry included in the national curriculum. Most of the test questions related to the symbolism of chemical equation, inorganic and organic reaction types and applications, the bonding and spatial structure in organic compounds, and stoichiometry problems. Only a few questions related to electrolysis, polymers, or buffer solutions. None of the test questions related to composites. There were not any significant differences in the emphasis between the tests formulated according to the national curriculum 1994 or 2003. Chemistry matriculation examinations are cognitively demanding. The research shows that the majority of the test questions require higher-order cognitive skills. Most of the questions required analysis of procedural knowledge. The questions that only required remembering or processing metacognitive knowledge, were not included in the research data. The required knowledge and skill level varied slightly between the test questions in the extensive general studies battery of tests in sciences and humanities, and subject-specific tests administered since 2006. The proportion of the Finnish chemistry matriculation examination questions requiring higher-order cognitive knowledge and skills is very large compared to what is discussed in the research literature.

Topographical, structural and geophysical characterization of fracture zones: implications for groundwater flow and vulnerability

The main objective of this study is to evaluate selected geophysical, structural and topographic methods on regional, local, and tunnel and borehole scales, as indicators of the properties of fracture zones or fractures relevant to groundwater flow. Such information serves, for example, groundwater exploration and prediction of the risk of groundwater inflow in underground construction. This study aims to address how the features detected by these methods link to groundwater flow in qualitative and semi-quantitative terms and how well the methods reveal properties of fracturing affecting groundwater flow in the studied sites. The investigated areas are: (1) the Päijänne Tunnel for water-conveyance whose study serves as a verification of structures identified on regional and local scales; (2) the Oitti fuel spill site, to telescope across scales and compare geometries of structural assessment; and (3) Leppävirta, where fracturing and hydrogeological environment have been studied on the scale of a drilled well. The methods applied in this study include: the interpretation of lineaments from topographic data and their comparison with aeromagnetic data; the analysis of geological structures mapped in the Päijänne Tunnel; borehole video surveying; groundwater inflow measurements; groundwater level observations; and information on the tunnel s deterioration as demonstrated by block falls. The study combined geological and geotechnical information on relevant factors governing groundwater inflow into a tunnel and indicators of fracturing, as well as environmental datasets as overlays for spatial analysis using GIS. Geophysical borehole logging and fluid logging were used in Leppävirta to compare the responses of different methods to fracturing and other geological features on the scale of a drilled well. Results from some of the geophysical measurements of boreholes were affected by the large diameter (gamma radiation) or uneven surface (caliper) of these structures. However, different anomalies indicating more fractured upper part of the bedrock traversed by well HN4 in Leppävirta suggest that several methods can be used for detecting fracturing. Fracture trends appear to align similarly on different scales in the zone of the Päijänne Tunnel. For example, similarities of patterns were found between the regional magnetic trends, correlating with orientations of topographic lineaments interpreted as expressions of fracture zones. The same structural orientations as those of the larger structures on local or regional scales were observed in the tunnel, even though a match could not be made in every case. The size and orientation of the observation space (patch of terrain at the surface, tunnel section, or borehole), the characterization method, with its typical sensitivity, and the characteristics of the location, influence the identification of the fracture pattern. Through due consideration of the influence of the sampling geometry and by utilizing complementary fracture characterization methods in tandem, some of the complexities of the relationship between fracturing and groundwater flow can be addressed. The flow connections demonstrated by the response of the groundwater level in monitoring wells to pressure decrease in the tunnel and the transport of MTBE through fractures in bedrock in Oitti, highlight the importance of protecting the tunnel water from a risk of contamination. In general, the largest values of drawdown occurred in monitoring wells closest to the tunnel and/or close to the topographically interpreted fracture zones. It seems that, to some degree, the rate of inflow shows a positive correlation with the level of reinforcement, as both are connected with the fracturing in the bedrock. The following geological features increased the vulnerability of tunnel sections to pollution, especially when several factors affected the same locations: (1) fractured bedrock, particularly with associated groundwater inflow; (2) thin or permeable overburden above fractured rock; (3) a hydraulically conductive layer underneath the surface soil; and (4) a relatively thin bedrock roof above the tunnel. The observed anisotropy of the geological media should ideally be taken into account in the assessment of vulnerability of tunnel sections and eventually for directing protective measures.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Scrum-prosessimallin käyttöliittymäriskien minimointi simulointipohjaisella GDD-käyttöliittymäsuunnittelumenetelmällä

Scrum-prosessimalli jättää menettelyt ohjelmiston käyttöliittymän tuottamiseen auki ja käyttöliittymä syntyy pahimmillaan toimintolistan pohjalta ohjelmoinnin sivutuotteena. Näin syntynyt järjestelmä soveltuu suurella riskillä huonosti käyttötarkoitukseensa. Tässä tutkielmassa analysoitiin Scrum-prosessimallin käyttöliittymäriskikohtia, joita löytyi kolme: asiakkaan toivomat ominaisuudet päätyvät sellaisinaan ohjelmiston vaatimuksiksi, toimintolistan pohjalta syntyy käytettävyydeltään heikkoja käyttöliittymäratkaisuja ja käyttöliittymän arviointi sprintin katselmoinnissa tuottaa epäluotettavia tuloksia. Tutkielmassa käsitellään Scrum-prosessimallin käyttöliittymäriskien minimointia simulointipohjaisella GDD-käyttöliittymäsuunnittelulla. Riskien minimointia tarkastellaan esimerkkitapauksen avulla, jossa ohjelmistoyritys Reaktor toteutti ammattikorkeakoulun toiminnansuunnittelujärjestelmän vuosisuunnitteluosion. Esimerkkitapauksessa Scrumin käyttöliittymäriskit saatiin minimoitua selvittämällä loppukäyttäjien käyttötilanteet kontekstuaalisilla haastatteluilla, suunnittelemalla käyttöliittymä GDD-menetelmällä ja arvioimalla käyttöliittymää hyödyllisyysläpikäynneillä. Alkuperäisessä Scrumissa liiketoiminnallisesta kannattavuudesta vastaava tuotteen omistaja ja toteutustiimi ottavat vastuulleen myös käyttöliittymän toimintalogiikan. GDD:n myötä vastuu toimintalogiikasta siirretään käyttöliittymäsuunnittelijalle, jolloin Scrumin roolit muuttuvat. Tässä työssä käsitellään GDD-käyttöliittymäsuunnittelun tuomat muutokset Scrumin rooleihin ja käytäntöihin. Scrumin käyttöliittymäriskien minimoinnin jälkeen toteutusvaiheeseen jää vielä Scrumista riippumattomia käyttöliittymäriskejä. Tämän työn esimerkkitapauksessa keskeisin näistä oli käyttöliittymätoteutukseen päätyneet puutteelliset interaktiot. Riski eliminoitiin hyväksymismenettelyllä, jossa ohjelmoija antaa toteutetun ominaisuuden käyttöliittymäsuunnittelijalle tarkistettavaksi. Hyväksymismenettelyn avulla projektin työnjako selkiytyi, toteutustyön laatu parani ja toteutustiimin ja käyttöliittymäsuunnittelijoiden välinen kommunikaatio tehostui.

Korkean käytettävyyden klusterointiteknologioiden vertailu

Tutkielma käsittelee korkean käytettävyyden klustereita. Tavoitteena on vertailla eri klusteriteknologioiden eroja ja arvioida tulosten perusteella sopivia käyttökohteita eri klusterituotteille. Samoja funktioita tarjoavat eri klusterituotteet asetetaan paremmuusjärjestykseen. Arviointi perustuu erilaisiin määrällisiin arvoihin, kuten solmulaitteiden maksimilukumäärä, sekä laadullisiin arvoihin, kuten käyttöönoton ja hallinnoinnin helppous. Erityisesti tavoitteena on tuoda esille eri tuotteiden vahvuuksia ja heikkouksia. Vertailtavia tuotteita ovat Microsoft Cluster Service (MSCS), TruCluster Server for Tru64 UNIX, Steeleye Lifekeeper for Windows ja Sun Cluster. ACM Computing Classification System (CSS): D.4 OPERATING SYSTEMS (C) D.4.5 Reliability

Turvetuotannon luvallistaminen muuttuvassa ympäristössä

Työssä tutkitaan turvetuotannon luvallistamiskysymyksiä luonnonsuojelullisten ja luonnonvarojen käyttöä korostavien tavoitteiden kohtauspinnassa. Tutkielman metodiksi on valikoitunut avoin, keskustelukeskeinen lähestymistapa, joka osoittautui sopivan hyvin tieteellisen tutkimuksen välineeksi. Erityisiä oikeuslähdeopillisia kysymyksiä tarkastellaan tutkimuksessa vain niiltä osin kuin työn muut osat sitä vaativat. Siksi yksittäisiä oikeuslähdeopillisia kysymyksiä ei oteta esille tutkimuksessa kattavasti. Ensimmäisessä varsinaisessa tutkimusjaksossa keskistytään lainsäädäntöhistoriaan. Lainsäädäntöhistoriasta oli löydettävissä sekä luonnonsuojelua että luonnonvarojen käyttämistä tukevia argumentteja, joiden sisältö voidaan melkein suoraan siirtää nykyiseen keskusteluun. Ennen kuin työssä siirrytään varsinaiseen tuotannon luvallistamisen käsittelyyn, siinä luodaan lyhyt katsaus ympäristövaikutusten arviointimenettelyn asemaan. Menettelyllä ei ole laajaa käyttöä turveteollisuudessa. Turveteollisuuden luvallistamiskysymyksiä käsitellään tutkimuksessa kolmessa eri kokonaisuudessa. Ensimmäisessä näistä hahmotetaan luvallistamista alueellisena ja ajallisena kokonaisuutena. Hahmotustapa osoittautui käyttökelpoiseksi ja hyvin turveteollisuuden todellisia oikeudellisia ongelmakohtia vastaavaksi. Keskimmäisessä luvallistamiskysymyksiä tarkastelevista jaksoista keskitytään ajankohtaiseen ongelmaan ilmaston lämpenemisestä. Jaksossa tarkastellaan teoreettista mahdollisuutta huomioida lupamenettelyssä toiminnan vaikutukset ilmastonmuutokselle. Erityisesti tässä jaksossa painottuu tutkimuksen metodin soveltaminen, jonka avulla voidaan ratkaista suhtautuminen tuotannosta esitettyihin, jopa vastakohtaisiin luonnontieteellisiin väitteisiin. Tarkastelussa päädytään siihen, että yksi mahdollinen tulkinta voimassaolevan oikeuden sisällöstä on toiminnan ilmastovaikutusten huomioiminen ympäristölupaharkinnassa. Viimeisimmässä tuotannon luvallistamista käsittelevässä jaksossa tutkimuskohteena on joitain toiminnan osia, joille edellytetään vesilain mukaista lupaa. Tässä jaksossa tutkimuskohteen rajaaminen osoittautui erityisen tärkeäksi, koska vaihtoehtoja tutkimuskohteiksi oli tarjolla runsaasti. Tutkimusalueeseen kuuluvat luvallistamiskysymykset, jotka tulivat vahvimmin esille työn aluksi tehdyissä haastatteluissa. Rajaamalla tutkimuskohde tällä perusteella pysytellään mahdollisimman tiiviisti alkuperäisessä tutkimusasetelmassa. Työn lopuksi käsitellään luvallistamisen suhdetta kaavoitukseen, nimenomaan maakuntakaavoihin ja valtakunnallisiin alueidenkäyttötavoitteisiin, joilla pyritään sääntelemään tuotantoa. Lyhyen katsauksen perusteella päätelmänä on instrumenttien vähäinen tosiasiallinen merkitys.

How terrorist campaigns end : The Rode Jeugd in the Netherlands and the Symbionese Liberation Army in the United States

This study explores the decline of terrorism by conducting source-based case studies on two left-wing terrorist campaigns in the 1970s, those of the Rode Jeugd in the Netherlands and the Symbionese Liberation Army in the United States. The purpose of the case studies is to bring more light into the interplay of different external and internal factors in the development of terrorist campaigns. This is done by presenting the history of the two chosen campaigns as narratives from the participants’ points of view, based on interviews with participants and extensive archival material. Organizational resources and dynamics clearly influenced the course of the two campaigns, but in different ways. This divergence derives at least partly from dissimilarities in organizational design and the incentive structure. Comparison of even these two cases shows that organizations using terrorism as a strategy can differ significantly, even when they share ideological orientation, are of the same size and operate in the same time period. Theories on the dynamics of terrorist campaigns would benefit from being more sensitive to this. The study also highlights that the demise of a terrorist organization does not necessarily lead to the decline of the terrorist campaign. Therefore, research should look at the development of terrorist activity beyond the lifespan of a single organization. The collective ideological beliefs and goals functioned primarily as a sustaining force, a lens through which the participants interpreted all developments. On the other hand, it appears that the role of ideology should not be overstated. Namely, not all participants in the campaigns under study fully internalized the radical ideology. Rather, their participation was mainly based on their friendship with other participants. Instead of ideology per se, it is more instructive to look at how those involved described their organization, themselves and their role in the revolutionary struggle. In both cases under study, the choice of the terrorist strategy was not merely a result of a cost-benefit calculation, but an important part of the participants’ self-image. Indeed, the way the groups portrayed themselves corresponded closely with the forms of action that they got involved in. Countermeasures and the lack of support were major reasons for the decline of the campaigns. However, what is noteworthy is that the countermeasures would not have had the same kind of impact had it not been for certain weaknesses of the groups themselves. Moreover, besides the direct impact the countermeasures had on the campaign, equally important was how they affected the attitudes of the larger left-wing community and the public in general. In this context, both the attitudes towards the terrorist campaign and the authorities were relevant to the outcome of the campaigns.

Environmental effects of thermal and radioactive discharges from nuclear power plants in the boreal brackish-water conditions of the northern Baltic Sea

During recent decades, thermal and radioactive discharges from nuclear power plants into the aquatic environment have become the subject of lively debate as an ecological concern. The target of this thesis was to summarize the large quantity of results obtained in extensive monitoring programmes and studies carried out in recipient sea areas off the Finnish nuclear power plants at Loviisa and Olkiluoto during more than four decades. The Loviisa NPP is located on the coast of the Gulf of Finland and Olkiluoto NPP on that of the Bothnian Sea. The state of the Gulf of Finland is clearly more eutrophic; the nutrient concentrations in the surface water are about 1½ 2 times higher at Loviisa than at Olkiluoto, and the total phosphorus concentrations still increased in both areas (even doubled at Loviisa) between the early 1970s and 2000. Thus, it is a challenge to distinguish the local effects of thermal discharges from the general eutrophication process of the Gulf of Finland. The salinity is generally low in the brackish-water conditions of the northern Baltic Sea, being however about 1 higher at Olkiluoto than at Loviisa (the salinity of surface water varying at the latter from near to 0 in early spring to 4 6 in late autumn). Thus, many marine and fresh-water organisms live in the Loviisa area close to their limit of existence, which makes the biota sensitive to any additional stress. The characteristics of the discharge areas of the two sites differ from each other in many respects: the discharge area at Loviisa is a semi-enclosed bay in the inner archipelago, where the exchange of water is limited, while the discharge area at Olkiluoto is more open, and the exchange of water with the open Bothnian Sea is more effective. The effects of the cooling water discharged from the power plants on the temperatures in the sea were most obvious in winter. The formation of a permanent ice cover in the discharge areas has been delayed in early winter, and the break-up of the ice occurs earlier in spring. The prolonging of the growing season and the disturbance of the overwintering time, in conditions where the biota has adjusted to a distinct rest period in winter, have been the most significant biological effects of the thermal pollution. The soft-bottom macrofauna at Loviisa has deteriorated to the point of almost total extinction at many sampling stations during the past 40 years. A similar decline has been reported for the whole eastern Gulf of Finland. However, the local eutrophication process seems to have contributed into the decline of the zoobenthos in the discharge area at Loviisa. Thermal discharges have increased the production of organic matter, which again has led to more organic bottom deposits. These have in turn increased the tendency of the isolated deeps to a depletion of oxygen, and this has further caused strong remobilization of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. Phytoplankton primary production and primary production capacity doubled in the whole area between the late 1960s and the late 1990s, but started to decrease a little at the beginning of this century. The focus of the production shifted from spring to mid- and late summer. The general rise in the level of primary production was mainly due to the increase in nutrient concentrations over the whole Gulf of Finland, but the thermal discharge contributed to a stronger increase of production in the discharge area compared to that in the intake area. The eutrophication of littoral vegetation in the discharge area has been the most obvious, unambiguous and significant biological effect of the heated water. Myriophyllum spicatum, Potamogeton perfoliatus and Potamogeton pectinatus, and vigorous growths of numerous filamentous algae as their epiphytes have strongly increased in the vicinity of the cooling water outlet, where they have formed dense populations in the littoral zone in late summer. However, the strongest increase of phytobenthos has extended only to a distance of about 1 km from the outlet, i.e., the changes in vegetation have been largest in those areas that remain ice-free in winter. Similar trends were also discernible at Olkiluoto, but to a clearly smaller extent, which was due to the definitely weaker level of background eutrophy and nutrient concentrations in the Bothnian Sea, and the differing local hydrographical and biological factors prevailing in the Olkiluoto area. The level of primary production has also increased at Olkiluoto, but has remained at a clearly lower level than at Loviisa. In spite of the analogous changes observed in the macrozoobenthos, the benthic fauna has remained strong and diversified in the Olkiluoto area. Small amounts of local discharge nuclides were regularly detected in environmental samples taken from the discharge areas: tritium in seawater samples, and activation products, such as 60Co, 58Co, 54Mn, 110mAg, 51Cr, in suspended particulate matter, bottom sediments and in several indicator organisms (e.g., periphyton and Fucus vesiculosus) that effectively accumulate radioactive substances from the medium. The tritium discharges and the consequent detection frequency and concentrations of tritium in seawater were higher at Loviisa, but the concentrations of the activation products were higher at Olkiluoto, where traces of local discharge nuclides were also observed over a clearly wider area, due to the better exchange of water than at Loviisa, where local discharge nuclides were only detected outside Hästholmsfjärden Bay quite rarely and in smaller amounts. At the farthest, an insignificant trace amount (0.2 Bq kg-1 d.w.) of 60Co originating from Olkiluoto was detected in Fucus at a distance of 137 km from the power plant. Discharge nuclides from the local nuclear power plants were almost exclusively detected at the lower trophic levels of the ecosystems. Traces of local discharge nuclides were very seldom detected in fish, and even then only in very low quantities. As a consequence of the reduced discharges, the concentrations of local discharge nuclides in the environment have decreased noticeably in recent years at both Loviisa and Olkiluoto. Although the concentrations in environmental samples, and above all, the discharge data, are presented as seemingly large numbers, the radiation doses caused by them to the population and to the biota are very low, practically insignificant. The effects of the thermal discharges have been more significant, at least to the wildlife in the discharge areas of the cooling water, although the area of impact has been relatively small. The results show that the nutrient level and the exchange of water in the discharge area of a nuclear power plant are of crucial importance.

Study of sleep and evaluation of sumatriptan and rizatriptan in the acute treatment of migraine in children and adolescents

Migraine is a common disease in children and adolescents, affecting roughly 10% of school-aged children. Recent studies have revealed an increasing incidence of childhood migraine, but migraine remains an underrecognized and undertreated condition in the pediatric population. Migraine attacks are painful and disabling and can affect a child´s life in many ways. Effective drug treatment is usually needed. The new migraine drugs, triptans, were introduced at the beginning of the 1990s and have since been shown to be very effective in the treatment of migraine attacks in adults. Although they are widely used in adults, the acute treatment of migraine in children and adolescents is still based on paracetamol and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Some children can control their attacks satisfactorily with simple analgesics, but at least one-third need more powerful treatments. When this thesis work commenced, hardly any information existed on the efficacy and safety of triptans in children. The study aim of the thesis was to identify more efficient treatments of migraine for children and adolescents by investigating the efficacy of sumatriptan nasal spray and oral rizatriptan compared with placebo in them. Sleep has an impact on migraine in many aspects. Despite the clinical relevance and common manifestation of sleep in the context of migraine in children, very little research data on the true frequency of sleep exist. As sleeping is so often related to childhood migraine, it can be a confounding factor in clinical drug trials of migraine treatments in children and adolescents. How the results of a sleeping child should be analyzed is under continual debate. The aim of the thesis was also to clarify this as well as to evaluate the frequency of sleeping during migraine attacks in children and factors affecting frequency. Both nasal sumatriptan and oral rizatriptan were effective (superior to placebo), and well tolerated in treatment of migraine attacks in children and adolescents aged 8-17 and 6-17 years, respectively. No serous adverse effects were observed. The results of this work suggest that nasal sumatriptan 20 mg and rizatriptan 10 mg can be effectively and safely used to treat migraine attacks in adolescents aged over 12 years if more effective drugs than NSAIDs are needed. No difference was observed in efficacy or safety of nasal sumatriptan and rizatriptan between children aged younger than 12 years and older children, but because the treated number of patients under 12 years is still small, more studies are needed before sumatriptan or rizatriptan can be recommended for use in this population. Sleeping during migraine attacks was very common, and most children at least occasionally slept during an attack. Falling asleep was especially common in children under eight years of age and during the first hour after the onset of attack. Children who were able to sleep soon after attack onset were more likely pain-free at two hours. Sleeping probably both improves recovery from a migraine attack and is a sign of headache relief. Falling asleep should be classified as a sign of headache relief in clinical drug trials when studying migraine treatments in children and adolescents.

Novel surgical and imaging methods of the middle ear and temporal bone

Välikorvaleikkauksiin usein liittyvän välikorvan ja kuuloluuketjun kirurgisen rekonstruktion tavoitteena on luoda olosuhteet, jotka mahdollistavat hyvän kuulon sekä välikorvan säilymisen tulehduksettomana ja ilmapitoisena. Välikorvan rekonstruktiossa on käytetty implanttimateriaaleina perinteisesti potilaan omia kudoksia sekä tarvittaessa erilaisia hajoamattomia biomateriaaleja, mm. titaania ja silikonia. Ongelmana biomateriaalien käytössä voi olla bakteerien adherenssi eli tarttuminen vieraan materiaalin pintaan, mikä saattaa johtaa biofilmin muodostumiseen. Tämä voi aiheuttaa kroonisen, huonosti antibiootteihin reagoivan infektion kudoksessa, mikä usein käytännössä johtaa uusintaleikkaukseen ja implantin poistoon. Maitohappo- ja glykolihappopohjaiset biologisesti hajoavat polymeerit ovat olleet kliinisessä käytössä jo vuosikymmeniä. Niitä on käytetty erityisesti tukimateriaaleina mm. ortopediassa sekä kasvo- ja leukakirurgiassa. Niitä ei ole toistaiseksi käytetty välikorvakirurgiassa. Korvan kuvantamiseen käytetään ensisijaisesti tietokonetomografiaa (TT). TT-tutkimuksen ongelmana on potilaan altistuminen suhteellisen korkealle sädeannokselle, joka kasvaa kumulatiivisesti, jos kuvaus joudutaan toistamaan. Väitöskirjatyö selvittää uuden, aiemmin kliinisessä työssä rutiinisti lähinnä hampaiston ja kasvojen alueen kuvantamiseen käytetyn rajoitetun kartiokeila-TT:n soveltuvuutta korvan alueen kuvantamiseen. Väitöskirjan kahdessa ensimmäisessä osatyössä tutkittiin ja verrattiin kahden kroonisia ja postoperatiivisia korvainfektioita aiheuttavan bakteerin, Staphylococcus aureuksen ja Pseudomonas aeruginosan, in vitro adherenssia titaanin, silikonin ja kahden eri biohajoavan polymeerin (PLGA) pintaan. Lisäksi tutkittiin materiaalien albumiinipinnoituksen vaikutusta adherenssiin. Kolmannessa osatyössä tutkittiin eläinmallissa PLGA:n biokompatibiliteettia eli kudosyhteensopivuutta kokeellisessa välikorvakirurgiassa. Chinchillojen välikorviin istutettiin PLGA-materiaalia, eläimiä seurattiin, ja ne lopetettiin 6 kk:n kuluttua operaatiosta. Biokompatibiliteetin arviointi perustui kliinisiin havaintoihin sekä kudosnäytteisiin. Neljännessä osatyössä tutkittiin kartiokeila-TT:n soveltuvuutta korvan alueen kuvantamiseen vertaamalla sen tarkkuutta perinteisen spiraali-TT:n tarkkuuteen. Molemmilla laitteilla kuvattiin ohimo- eli temporaaliluita korvan alueen kliinisesti ja kirurgisesti tärkeiden rakenteiden kuvantumisen tarkkuuden arvioimiseksi. Viidennessä osatyössä arvioitiin myös operoitujen temporaaliluiden kuvantumista kartiokeila-TT:ssa. Bakteeritutkimuksissa PLGA-materiaalin pintaan tarttui keskimäärin korkeintaan saman verran tai vähemmän bakteereita kuin silikonin tai titaanin. Albumiinipinnoitus vähensi bakteeriadherenssia merkitsevästi kaikilla materiaaleilla. Eläinkokeiden perusteella PLGA todettiin hyvin siedetyksi välikorvassa. Korvakäytävissä tai välikorvissa ei todettu infektioita, tärykalvon perforaatioita tai materiaalin esiin työntymistä. Kudosnäytteissä näkyi lievää tulehdusreaktiota ja fibroosia implantin ympärillä. Temporaaliluutöissä rajoitettu kartiokeila-TT todettiin vähintään yhtä tarkaksi menetelmäksi kuin spiraali-TT välikorvan ja sisäkorvan rakenteiden kuvantamisessa, ja sen aiheuttama kertasäderasitus todettiin spiraali-TT:n vastaavaa huomattavasti vähäisemmäksi. Kartiokeila-TT soveltui hyvin välikorvaimplanttien ja postoperatiivisen korvan kuvantamiseen. Tulokset osoittavat, että PLGA on välikorvakirurgiaan soveltuva, turvallinen ja kudosyhteensopiva biomateriaali. Biomateriaalien pinnoittaminen albumiinilla vähentää merkittävästi bakteeriadherenssia niihin, mikä puoltaa pinnoituksen soveltamista implanttikirurgiassa. Kartiokeila-TT soveltuu korvan alueen kuvantamiseen. Sen tarkkuus kliinisesti tärkeiden rakenteiden osoittamisessa on vähintään yhtä hyvä ja sen potilaalle aiheuttama sädeannos pienempi kuin nykyisen korva-spiraali-TT:n. Tämä tekee menetelmästä spiraali-TT:aa potilasturvallisemman vaihtoehdon erityisesti, jos potilaan tilanne vaatii seurantaa ja useampia kuvauksia, ja jos halutaan kuvata rajoitettuja alueita uni- tai bilateraalisesti.

Determinants of outcome in critically ill patients

Assessment of the outcome of critical illness is complex. Severity scoring systems and organ dysfunction scores are traditional tools in mortality and morbidity prediction in intensive care. Their ability to explain risk of death is impressive for large cohorts of patients, but insufficient for an individual patient. Although events before intensive care unit (ICU) admission are prognostically important, the prediction models utilize data collected at and just after ICU admission. In addition, several biomarkers have been evaluated to predict mortality, but none has proven entirely useful in clinical practice. Therefore, new prognostic markers of critical illness are vital when evaluating the intensive care outcome. The aim of this dissertation was to investigate new measures and biological markers of critical illness and to evaluate their predictive value and association with mortality and disease severity. The impact of delay in emergency department (ED) on intensive care outcome, measured as hospital mortality and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 6 months, was assessed in 1537 consecutive patients admitted to medical ICU. Two new biological markers were investigated in two separate patient populations: in 231 ICU patients and 255 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. Cell-free plasma DNA is a surrogate marker of apoptosis. Its association with disease severity and mortality rate was evaluated in ICU patients. Next, the predictive value of plasma DNA regarding mortality and its association with the degree of organ dysfunction and disease severity was evaluated in severe sepsis or septic shock. Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) is a potential regulator of apoptosis. Finally, HO-1 plasma concentrations and HO-1 gene polymorphisms and their association with outcome were evaluated in ICU patients. The length of ED stay was not associated with outcome of intensive care. The hospital mortality rate was significantly lower in patients admitted to the medical ICU from the ED than from the non-ED, and the HRQoL in the critically ill at 6 months was significantly lower than in the age- and sex-matched general population. In the ICU patient population, the maximum plasma DNA concentration measured during the first 96 hours in intensive care correlated significantly with disease severity and degree of organ failure and was independently associated with hospital mortality. In patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, the cell-free plasma DNA concentrations were significantly higher in ICU and hospital nonsurvivors than in survivors and showed a moderate discriminative power regarding ICU mortality. Plasma DNA was an independent predictor for ICU mortality, but not for hospital mortality. The degree of organ dysfunction correlated independently with plasma DNA concentration in severe sepsis and plasma HO-1 concentration in ICU patients. The HO-1 -413T/GT(L)/+99C haplotype was associated with HO-1 plasma levels and frequency of multiple organ dysfunction. Plasma DNA and HO-1 concentrations may support the assessment of outcome or organ failure development in critically ill patients, although their value is limited and requires further evaluation.

Randomised Evaluation of New Technologies within the Population‐Based Cervical Cancer Screening Programme in Finland: Cross‐Sectional Performance and Validity

A randomised and population-based screening design with new technologies has been applied to the organised cervical cancer screening programme in Finland. In this experiment the women invited to routine five-yearly screening are individually randomised to be screened with automation-assisted cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) test or conventional cytology. By using the randomised design, the ultimate aim is to assess and compare the long-term outcomes of the different screening regimens. The primary aim of the current study was to evaluate, based on the material collected during the implementation phase of the Finnish randomised screening experiment, the cross-sectional performance and validity of automation-assisted cytology (Papnet system) and primary HPV DNA testing (Hybrid Capture II assay for 13 oncogenic HPV types) within service screening, in comparison to conventional cytology. The parameters of interest were test positivity rate, histological detection rate, relative sensitivity, relative specificity and positive predictive value. Also, the effect of variation in performance by screening laboratory on age-adjusted cervical cancer incidence was assessed. Based on the cross-sectional results, almost no differences were observed in the performance of conventional and automation-assisted screening. Instead, primary HPV screening found 58% (95% confidence interval 19-109%) more cervical lesions than conventional screening. However, this was mainly due to overrepresentation of mild- and moderate-grade lesions and, thus, is likely to result in overtreatment since a great deal of these lesions would never progress to invasive cancer. Primary screening with an HPV DNA test alone caused substantial loss in specificity in comparison to cytological screening. With the use of cytology triage test, the specificity of HPV screening improved close to the level of conventional cytology. The specificity of primary HPV screening was also increased by increasing the test positivity cutoff from the level recommended for clinical use, but the increase was more modest than the one gained with the use of cytology triage. The performance of the cervical cancer screening programme varied widely between the screening laboratories, but the variation in overall programme effectiveness between respective populations was more marginal from the very beginning of the organised screening activity. Thus, conclusive interpretations on the quality or success of screening should not be based on performance parameters only. In the evaluation of cervical cancer screening the outcome should be selected as closely as possible to the true measure of programme effectiveness, which is the number of invasive cervical cancers and subsequent deaths prevented in the target population. The evaluation of benefits and adverse effects of each new suggested screening technology should be performed before the technology becomes an accepted routine in the existing screening programme. At best, the evaluation is performed randomised, within the population and screening programme in question, which makes the results directly applicable to routine use.