Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle

The time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is studied using a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC3). The concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs are prescribed for the past (1860–1990) and projected into the future according to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a. In addition, the space–time distribution of tropospheric ozone is prescribed, and the tropospheric sulfur cycle is calculated within the coupled model using sulfur emissions of the past and projected into the future (IS92a). The radiative impact of the aerosols is considered via both the direct and the indirect (i.e., through cloud albedo) effect. It is shown that the simulated trend in sulfate deposition since the end of the last century is broadly consistent with ice core measurements, and the calculated radiative forcings from preindustrial to present time are within the uncertainty range estimated by IPCC. Three climate perturbation experiments are performed, applying different forcing mechanisms, and the results are compared with those obtained from a 300-yr unforced control experiment. As in previous experiments, the climate response is similar, but weaker, if aerosol effects are included in addition to greenhouse gases. One notable difference to previous experiments is that the strength of the Indian summer monsoon is not fundamentally affected by the inclusion of aerosol effects. Although the monsoon is damped compared to a greenhouse gas only experiment, it is still more vigorous than in the control experiment. This different behavior, compared to previous studies, is the result of the different land–sea distribution of aerosol forcing. Somewhat unexpected, the intensity of the global hydrological cycle becomes weaker in a warmer climate if both direct and indirect aerosol effects are included in addition to the greenhouse gases. This can be related to anomalous net radiative cooling of the earth’s surface through aerosols, which is balanced by reduced turbulent transfer of both sensible and latent heat from the surface to the atmosphere.

Extracting planetary waves from geomagnetic time series using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Empirical Mode Decomposition is presented as an alternative to traditional analysis methods to decompose geomagnetic time series into spectral components. Important comments on the algorithm and its variations will be given. Using this technique, planetary wave modes of 5-, 10-, and 16-day mean periods can be extracted from magnetic field components of three different stations in Germany. In a second step, the amplitude modulation functions of these wave modes can be shown to contain significant contribution from solar cycle variation through correlation with smoothed sunspot numbers. Additionally, the data indicate connections with geomagnetic jerk occurrences, supported by a second set of data providing reconstructed near-Earth magnetic field for 150 years. Usually attributed to internal dynamo processes within the Earth's outer core, the question of who is impacting whom will be briefly discussed here.

Common trends and common cycles in per capita GDP : the case of the G7 Countries, 1870-2001

In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis.

Decomposition properties of PVA/graphene composites during melting-crystallization

Abstract The thermal decomposition of PVA and PVA composites during the melting-crystallization process is still unclear due to indistinct changes in chemical compositions. Using graphene as a model, the decomposition properties of PVA and PVA-graphene composites were systematically analyzed under multiple melting-crystallization cycles. And a series of isothermal decomposition experiments around the melting-crystallization temperature were carried out to simulate the corresponding decomposition kinetics. Based on multiple cycle melting-crystallization, the weight loss of PVA and PVA/graphene composites was successfully quantified. Further morphology investigation and chemical structure analysis indicated that the decomposition was non-uniformly distributed, rendering the possibility of crystallization for PVA and PVA/graphene composites after multiple heating-cooling cycles. In addition, isothermal decomposition analysis based on reduced time plot approach and model-free iso-conversional method indicated that Avrami-Eroffev model could well match the decomposition process of the neat PVA and PG-0.3 composite, while the Avrami-Eroffev and first order models could precisely forecast the decomposition of PG-0.9 composite. Both analyses during multiple cycle melting-crystallization and isothermal decomposition demonstrated that graphene served as decomposition accelerator in the whole thermal decomposition process, and particularly the decomposition of neat PVA and PVA/graphene composites was highly related to the band area ratios of C-H and O-H vibrations in Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrum.

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

Lucas (1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-áedged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0:9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era - about $175.00 a year per-capita in the U.S. We also computed the marginal welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty using this same technique. It is about twice as large as the welfare cost ñ$350.00 a year per-capita.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

The Araguaia fold belt, Brazil: A reactivated Brasiliano-Pan-African cycle (550 Ma) geosuture

The Araguaia-Tocantins geosuture, which separates the Araguaia Fold Belt (AFB) from the Archean Amazonian Craton, was active in the late Middle Proterozoic. The Baixo Araguaia Supergroup was deposited, consisting of the Estrondo Group (lower quartzites with intercalated schists), Xambioá Formation (schists), and Canto da Vazante Formation (upper feldspathic schists); and the Tocantins Group consisting of the Couto Magalhaës Formation (phyllites, quartzites, slates, limestones, and metacherts) and Pequizeiro Formation (upper chlorite schists); and associated mafic-ultramafic bodies. The deformational history includes four regional phases of deformation within this supracrustal sequence: recumbent folds with vergence to the west; refolding with a N-S trend; an intense crenulation episode; and late thrusting from east to west. Metamorphism is of intermediate or intermediate-high pressure type with garnet, biotite, chlorite, and sericite isograds succeeded by a slightly or non-metamorphosed zone, from east to west. Rocks surrounding sparse gneissic-cored domes contain isograds of staurolite, kyanite, and fibrolite. These isograds are believed to be associated with the 1100 Ma Uruaçuano event. The Brasiliano Orogeny strongly affected the AFB with displacements due to transcurrent reactivation of great and old faults of the basement, slight folding in the supracrustal sequence, intrusion of small granite bodies, and development of domes with associated normal faults. The area underlain by the Estrondo Group was uplifted at this time, causing the deposition of the Rio das Barreiras polymictic conglomerate of the central area. K-Ar and Rb-Sr analyses date this thermo-tectonic event at 550 ± 100 Ma. The Archean basement is exposed in the cores of domes as a granite-gneiss association, the Colméia complex, which shows thermo-tectonic features that may be interpreted as polycyclic imprints (Jequié, Transamazonian?, Uruaçuano, and Brasiliano Events). © 1989.

Weak expansions: a distinctive feature of the business cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean

Using two standard cycle methodologies (Classical and Deviation Cycle) and a comprehensive sample of 83 countries worldwide, including all developing regions, we show that the Latin American and Caribbean cycle exhibits two distinctive features. First, and most importantly, its expansion performance is shorter and for the most par less imtense than that of the rest of the regions considered, and in particular than that of East Asia and the Pacific, East Asia and the Pacific's expansions last five years longer than those of LAC, and its output gain is 50% greater than that of LAC. Second, LAC tends to exhibit contractions that are not significantly different in terms of duration and amplitude than t those of other regions. Both these features imply that the complete Latin American and Caribbean cycle has, overall, the shortest duration and smallest amplitude in relation to other regions. The specificities of the Latin American and Caribbean cycle are not confined to the short run. These are also reflected in variables such as productivity and investment, which are linked to long-run growth. East Asia and the Pacific's cumulative gain in labor productivity during the expansionary phase is twice that of LAC. Moreover, the evidence also shows that the effects of the contraction in public investment surpass those of the expansion leading to a declining trend over the entire cycle. In this sense we suggest that policy analysis needs to increase its focus on the expansionary phase of the cycle. Improving our knowledge of the differences in the expansionary dynamics of countries and regions, can further our understanding of the differences in their rates of growth and levels of development. We also suggest that while, the management of the cycle affects the short-run fluctuations of economic activity and hence volatility, it is not trend neutral. Hence, the effects of aggregate demand management policies may be more persistent over time and less transitory than currently thought.

Defibrotide Interferes With Several Steps of the Coagulation-Inflammation Cycle and Exhibits Therapeutic Potential to Treat Severe Malaria

Objective-The coagulation-inflammation cycle has been implicated as a critical component in malaria pathogenesis. Defibrotide (DF), a mixture of DNA aptamers, displays anticoagulant, anti-inflammatory, and endothelial cell (EC)-protective activities and has been successfully used to treat comatose children with veno-occlusive disease. DF was investigated here as a drug to treat cerebral malaria. Methods and Results-DF blocks tissue factor expression by ECs incubated with parasitized red blood cells and attenuates prothrombinase activity, platelet aggregation, and complement activation. In contrast, it does not affect nitric oxide bioavailability. We also demonstrated that Plasmodium falciparum glycosylphosphatidylinositol (Pf-GPI) induces tissue factor expression in ECs and cytokine production by dendritic cells. Notably, dendritic cells, known to modulate coagulation and inflammation systemically, were identified as a novel target for DF. Accordingly, DF inhibits Toll-like receptor ligand-dependent dendritic cells activation by a mechanism that is blocked by adenosine receptor antagonist (8-p-sulfophenyltheophylline) but not reproduced by synthetic poly-A, -C, -T, and -G. These results imply that aptameric sequences and adenosine receptor mediate dendritic cells responses to the drug. DF also prevents rosetting formation, red blood cells invasion by P. falciparum and abolishes oocysts development in Anopheles gambiae. In a murine model of cerebral malaria, DF affected parasitemia, decreased IFN-gamma levels, and ameliorated clinical score (day 5) with a trend for increased survival. Conclusion-Therapeutic use of DF in malaria is proposed. (Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol. 2012; 32:786-798.)

Essential steps to providing reliable results using the Analytical Quality Assurance Cycle

Considering how demand for quality assurance (QA) has grown in analytical laboratories, we show the trends in analytical science, illustrated through international standard ISO/IEC 17025, validation, measurements of uncertainty, and quality-control (QC) measures. A detailed review of the history of analytical chemistry indicates that these concepts are consistently used in laboratories to demonstrate their traceabilities and competences to provide reliable results. We propose a new approach for laboratory QA, which also develops a diagram to support routine laboratories (which generally apply a quality system, such as ISO/IEC 17025) or research laboratories (that have some difficult applying this international standard). This approach, called the Analytical Quality Assurance Cycle (AQAC), presents the major QA concepts and the relationships between these concepts in order to provide traceability and reliable results. The AQAC is a practical tool to support the trend towards QA in analytical laboratories. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Revision of Singlet Quantum Yields in the Catalyzed Decomposition of Cyclic Peroxides

The chemiluminescence of cyclic peroxides activated by oxidizable fluorescent dyes is an example of chemically initiated electron exchange luminescence (CIEEL), which has been used also to explain the efficient bioluminescence of fireflies. Diphenoyl peroxide and dimethyl-1,2-dioxetanone were used as model compounds for the development of this CIEEL mechanism. However, the chemiexcitation efficiency of diphenoyl peroxide was found to be much lower than originally described. In this work, we redetermine the chemiexcitation quantum efficiency of dimethyl-1,2-dioxetanone, a more adequate model for firefly bioluminescence, and found a singlet quantum yield (Phi(s)) of 0.1%, a value at least 2 orders of magnitude lower than previously reported. Furthermore, we synthesized two other 1,2-dioxetanone derivatives and confirm the low chemiexcitation efficiency (Phi(s) < 0.1%) of the intermolecular CIEEL-activated decomposition of this class of cyclic. peroxides. These results are compared with other chemiluminescent reactions, supporting the general trend that intermolecular CIEEL systems are much less efficient in generating singlet excited states than analogous intramolecular processes (Phi(s) approximate to 50%), with the notable exception of the peroxyoxalate reaction (Phi(s) approximate to 60%).

Integration of MFA and LCA methodologies: the anthropogenic aluminium cycle in Italy

MFA and LCA methodologies were applied to analyse the anthropogenic aluminium cycle in Italy with focus on historical evolution of stocks and flows of the metal, embodied GHG emissions, and potentials from recycling to provide key features to Italy for prioritizing industrial policy toward low-carbon technologies and materials. Historical trend series were collected from 1947 to 2009 and balanced with data from production, manufacturing and waste management of aluminium-containing products, using a ‘top-down’ approach to quantify the contemporary in-use stock of the metal, and helping to identify ‘applications where aluminium is not yet being recycled to its full potential and to identify present and future recycling flows’. The MFA results were used as a basis for the LCA aimed at evaluating the carbon footprint evolution, from primary and electrical energy, the smelting process and the transportation, embodied in the Italian aluminium. A discussion about how the main factors, according to the Kaya Identity equation, they did influence the Italian GHG emissions pattern over time, and which are the levers to mitigate it, it has been also reported. The contemporary anthropogenic reservoirs of aluminium was estimated at about 320 kg per capita, mainly embedded within the transportation and building and construction sectors. Cumulative in-use stock represents approximately 11 years of supply at current usage rates (about 20 Mt versus 1.7 Mt/year), and it would imply a potential of about 160 Mt of CO2eq emissions savings. A discussion of criticality related to aluminium waste recovery from the transportation and the containers and packaging sectors was also included in the study, providing an example for how MFA and LCA may support decision-making at sectorial or regional level. The research constitutes the first attempt of an integrated approach between MFA and LCA applied to the aluminium cycle in Italy.

The nitrogen cycle of tropical montane forest in Ecuador turns inorganic under environmental change

Water-bound nitrogen (N) cycling in temperate terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere is today mainly inorganic because of anthropogenic release of reactive N to the environment. In little-industrialized and remote areas, in contrast, a larger part of N cycling occurs as dissolved organic N (DON). In a north Andean tropical montane forest in Ecuador, the N cycle changed markedly during 1998–2010 along with increasing N deposition and reduced soil moisture. The DON concentrations and the fractional contribution of DON to total N significantly decreased in rainfall, throughfall, and soil solutions. This inorganic turn of the N cycle was most pronounced in rainfall and became weaker along the flow path of water through the system until it disappeared in stream water. Decreasing organic contributions to N cycling were caused not only by increasing inorganic N input but also by reduced DON production and/or enhanced DON decomposition. Accelerated DON decomposition might be attributable to less waterlogging and higher nutrient availability. Significantly increasing NO3-N concentrations and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios in throughfall and litter leachate below the thick organic layers indicated increasing nitrification. In mineral soil solutions, in contrast, NH4-N concentrations increased and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios decreased significantly, suggesting increasing net ammonification. Our results demonstrate that the remote tropical montane forests on the rim of the Amazon basin experienced a pronounced change of the N cycle in only one decade. This change likely parallels a similar change which followed industrialization in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere more than a century ago.

Daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere: global, regional and seasonal behaviour modelled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is utilised to study the daily ozone cycle and underlying photochemical and dynamical processes. The analysis is focused on the daily ozone cycle in the middle stratosphere at 5 hPa where satellite-based trend estimates of stratospheric ozone are most biased by diurnal sampling effects and drifting satellite orbits. The simulated ozone cycle shows a minimum after sunrise and a maximum in the late afternoon. Further, a seasonal variation of the daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere was found. Depending on season and latitude, the peak-to-valley difference of the daily ozone cycle varies mostly between 3 and 5% (0.4 ppmv) with respect to the midnight ozone volume mixing ratio. The maximal variation of 15% (0.8 ppmv) is found at the polar circle in summer. The global pattern of the strength of the daily ozone cycle is mainly governed by the solar zenith angle and the sunshine duration. In addition, we find synoptic-scale variations in the strength of the daily ozone cycle. These variations are often anti-correlated to regional temperature anomalies and are due to the temperature dependence of the rate coefficients k2 and k3 of the Chapman cycle reactions. Further, the NOx catalytic cycle counteracts the accumulation of ozone during daytime and leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in NOx and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. Similarly, ozone recombines with atomic oxygen which leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in ozone abundance and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. At higher latitudes, an increase of the westerly (easterly) wind cause a decrease (increase) in the sunshine duration of an air parcel leading to a weaker (stronger) daily ozone cycle.

Biogeochemical investigation of the benthic nitrogen cycle in the Arabian Sea off Pakistan

A pronounced deficit of nitrogen (N) in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the Arabian Sea suggests the occurrence of heavy N-loss that is commonly attributed to pelagic processes. However, the OMZ water is in direct contact with sediments on three sides of the basin. Contribution from benthic N-loss to the total N-loss in the Arabian Sea remains largely unassessed. In October 2007, we sampled the water column and surface sediments along a transect cross-cutting the Arabian Sea OMZ at the Pakistan continental margin, covering a range of station depths from 360 to 1430 m. Benthic denitrification and anammox rates were determined by using 15N-stable isotope pairing experiments. Intact core incubations showed declining rates of total benthic N-loss with water depth from 0.55 to 0.18 mmol N m**-2 day**-1. While denitrification rates measured in slurry incubations decreased from 2.73 to 1.46 mmol N m**-2 day**-1 with water depth, anammox rates increased from 0.21 to 0.89 mmol N m**-2 day**-1. Hence, the contribution from anammox to total benthic N-loss increased from 7% at 360 m to 40% at 1430 m. This trend is further supported by the quantification of cd1-containing nitrite reductase (nirS), the biomarker functional gene encoding for cytochrome cd1-Nir of microorganisms involved in both N-loss processes. Anammox-like nirS genes within the sediments increased in proportion to total nirS gene copies with water depth. Moreover, phylogenetic analyses of NirS revealed different communities of both denitrifying and anammox bacteria between shallow and deep stations. Together, rate measurement and nirS analyses showed that anammox, determined for the first time in the Arabian Sea sediments, is an important benthic N-loss process at the continental margin off Pakistan, especially in the sediments at deeper water depths. Extrapolation from the measured benthic N-loss to all shelf sediments within the basin suggests that benthic N-loss may be responsible for about half of the overall N-loss in the Arabian Sea.