Estimation of a Regression Function on a Point Process and its Application to Financial Ruin Risk Forecast

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60G55; secondary 60G25.

Mitigating congestion by integrating time forecasting and realtime information aggregation in cellular networks

An iterative travel time forecasting scheme, named the Advanced Multilane Prediction based Real-time Fastest Path (AMPRFP) algorithm, is presented in this dissertation. This scheme is derived from the conventional kernel estimator based prediction model by the association of real-time nonlinear impacts that caused by neighboring arcs’ traffic patterns with the historical traffic behaviors. The AMPRFP algorithm is evaluated by prediction of the travel time of congested arcs in the urban area of Jacksonville City. Experiment results illustrate that the proposed scheme is able to significantly reduce both the relative mean error (RME) and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the predicted travel time. To obtain high quality real-time traffic information, which is essential to the performance of the AMPRFP algorithm, a data clean scheme enhanced empirical learning (DCSEEL) algorithm is also introduced. This novel method investigates the correlation between distance and direction in the geometrical map, which is not considered in existing fingerprint localization methods. Specifically, empirical learning methods are applied to minimize the error that exists in the estimated distance. A direction filter is developed to clean joints that have negative influence to the localization accuracy. Synthetic experiments in urban, suburban and rural environments are designed to evaluate the performance of DCSEEL algorithm in determining the cellular probe’s position. The results show that the cellular probe’s localization accuracy can be notably improved by the DCSEEL algorithm. Additionally, a new fast correlation technique for overcoming the time efficiency problem of the existing correlation algorithm based floating car data (FCD) technique is developed. The matching process is transformed into a 1-dimensional (1-D) curve matching problem and the Fast Normalized Cross-Correlation (FNCC) algorithm is introduced to supersede the Pearson product Moment Correlation Co-efficient (PMCC) algorithm in order to achieve the real-time requirement of the FCD method. The fast correlation technique shows a significant improvement in reducing the computational cost without affecting the accuracy of the matching process.

Semi-parametric geolocation estimation in NLOS environments

The position of a stationary target can be determined using triangulation in combination with time of arrival measurements at several sensors. In urban environments, none-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation leads to biased time estimation and thus to inaccurate position estimates. Here, a semi-parametric approach is proposed to mitigate the effects of NLOS propagation. The degree of contamination by NLOS components in the observations, which result in asymmetric noise statistics, is determined and incorporated into the estimator. The proposed method is adequate for environments where the NLOS error plays a dominant role and outperforms previous approaches that assume a symmetric noise statistic.

Highway Performance and Time-Sensitive Industries, 1998

This report addresses delays to freight shippers. Although the focus is on just-in-time (JIT) businesses, the authors also note that non JIT businesses also suffer delays that impact their productivity. The table of contents lists the following headings: chapter 1 - introduction - a trial application: the Des Moines metropolitan area; structure of the report; chapter 2 - reliability at the forefront of freight transport demand - manufacturing and inventory; just-in-time operations in the U.S.; transportation consequences; summary; chapter 3 - JIT operations in Iowa - survey and sample; trucking activity and service; just-in-time truck transportation in Iowa; assessment of factors affecting truck transportation service; summary and conclusions; chapter 4 - travel time uncertainty induced by incidents - a probabilistic model for incident occurrences and durations; calculation of delay; trial application; conclusions; and chapter 5 - conclusions and recommendations - conclusions; recommendations.

Modelo matemático para planejamento da circulação de trens em uma ferrovia de linha singela

Diversos fatores têm contribuído para o aumento da demanda por transporte ferroviário no Brasil. Dentre eles, citam-se: o aumento das exportações brasileiras nos últimos anos e a aprovação do novo marco regulatório para o setor ferroviário brasileiro que permitiu o uso da capacidade ociosa das ferrovias e o compartilhamento da malha por diversos operadores. Investimentos para construção de novas ferrovias e melhorias nas já existentes são muito elevados, o que dificulta a implantação de novos projetos. Assim, faz-se necessário melhorar o planejamento da circulação de trens visando o aumento de capacidade sem a necessidade de novos investimentos, otimizando o uso da estrutura já existente. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo propor um modelo matemático para realizar o planejamento da circulação de trens em uma ferrovia de linha singela, que minimize o transit time, isto é, o tempo total de viagem de todos os trens e consequentemente reduza o tempo parado em pátios de cruzamento. O modelo proposto permite que os trens sejam atrasados ou adiantados na partida visando reduzir o tempo parado em pátios de cruzamento. O modelo é resolvido de forma ótima usando o solver CPLEX 12.6. Foram realizados testes com dados reais da Ferrovia Centro Atlântica (FCA) e os resultados alcançados pelo CPLEX foram comparados com os resultados do planejamento manual da FCA. O modelo obteve redução do tempo de viagem dos trens em todos os cenários testados.

Remediation of sandy soils contaminated with hydrocarbons and halogenated hydrocarbons by soil vapour extraction

This paper presents the study of the remediation of sandy soils containing six of the most common contaminants (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, trichloroethylene and perchloroethylene) using soil vapour extraction (SVE). The influence of soil water content on the process efficiency was evaluated considering the soil type and the contaminant. For artificially contaminated soils with negligible clay contents and natural organic matter it was concluded that: (i) all the remediation processes presented efficiencies above 92%; (ii) an increase of the soil water content led to a more time-consuming remediation; (iii) longer remediation periods were observed for contaminants with lower vapour pressures and lower water solubilities due to mass transfer limitations. Based on these results an easy and relatively fast procedure was developed for the prediction of the remediation times of real soils; 83% of the remediation times were predicted with relative deviations below 14%.

Soluções de transporte ferroviário: simulação de marcha e de tráfego de veículos de tração diesel e elétrica

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Sistema de suporte à negociação numa empresa de prestação de serviços médicos

Nesta dissertação foram estudados métodos de apoio à negociação com o objectivo de encontrar o melhor modelo de negociação para uma empresa prestadora de serviços médicos. O modelo utilizado foi o WinWin e para testar o modelo foi desenvolvido um sistema de apoio à negociação com os clientes. A aplicação foi desenvolvida com o objectivo de conseguir optimizar percursos e reduzir custos, dentro de certas condições, da forma mais eficiente possível, e que fosse de acordo aos interesses do processo de negociação e do contrato com o cliente. Com isto, a aplicação foi testada com 70 contratos, tendo conseguido simular vários grafos que conseguiam alocar todas as consultas dos contratos de forma a respeitar os objectivos impostos por este, e sendo eficientes no sentido de reduzir os custos e tempo de deslocação, diminuindo consequentemente os custos do contrato para o cliente. A redução dos custos para o cliente permite à empresa prestadora de serviços médicos ser mais competitiva face aos seus concorrentes, assim como possuir uma maior margem de manobra face ao processo de negociação, pois também através das simulações conseguem ter uma noção mais precisa dos custos totais de um contrato, diminuindo assim possíveis riscos de um contrato mal estimado.

Design and construction of tunnels in zones subjected to high convergences

The economic development of a region depends on the speed that people and goods can travel. The reduction of people and goods travel time can be achieved by planning smooth road layouts, which are obtained by crossing natural obstacles such as hills, by tunneling at great depths, and allowing the reduction of the road alignment length. The stress state in rock masses at such depths, either because of the overburden or due to the tectonic conditions of the rock mass induces high convergences of the tunnel walls. These high convergence values are incompatible with the supports structural performance installed in the excavation stabilization. In this article it is intended to evaluate and analyze some of the solutions already implemented in several similar geological and geotechnical situations, in order to establish a methodological principle for the design of the tunnels included in a highway section under construction in the region influenced by the Himalayas, in the state of Himachal Pradesh (India) and referenced by "four laning of Kiratpur to Ner Chowk section".

Geological and geotechnical surveys in tectonically active rock masses

The economic development of a region depends on the speed that people and goods can travel. The reduction of people and goods travel time can be achieved by planning smooth road layouts, which are obtained by crossing natural obstacles such as hills, by tunneling at great depths, and allowing the reduction of the road alignment length. The stress state in rock masses at such depths, either because of the overburden or due to the tectonic conditions of the rock mass induces high convergences of the tunnel walls. These high convergence values are incompatible with the supports structural performance installed in the excavation stabilization. In this article it is intended to evaluate and analyze some of the solutions already implemented in several similar geological and geotechnical situations, in order to establish a methodological principle for the design of the tunnels included in a highway section under construction in the region influenced by the Himalayas, in the state of Himachal Pradesh (India) and referenced by "four laning of Kiratpur to Ner Chowk section".

Estudo das vias de acesso aos cuidados psiquiátricos na equipa de Sintra

Resumo: O estudo das vias de acesso à consulta de Psiquiatria permite identificar os parceiros mais importantes no acesso dos utentes aos serviços psiquiátricos. O modelo de Goldberg-Huxley considera que o acesso às consultas de Psiquiatria se faz principalmente através dos cuidados de saúde primários. Material e Métodos: Para estudar as vias de acesso aos cuidados psiquiátricos utilizamos a Encounter Form, questionário desenvolvido por Gater. Foi também avaliada a classe social dos utentes utilizando a Escala de Graffar. Este inquérito foi passado na Consulta de Psiquiatria de Sintra a utentes de primeira consulta. A amostra estudada foi de 93 utentes. O objectivo do estudo foi conhecer a trajectória do utente desde que teve necessidade de ser consultado até chegar à consulta de Psiquiatria, os sintomas que determinaram a decisão de procurar ajuda e a influência da classe social no tempo de percurso. Resultados: Observa-se que os utentes passam pela Medicina Geral e Familiar em 71 % dos casos, pela Urgência Psiquiátrica em 16,1 % dos casos, pela Medicina Especializada Hospitalar em 10,7 % dos casos e pela Urgência Geral em 1,1 % dos casos. Na escala de Graffar a classe social prevalente é a média (Classe III). O tempo de percurso foi maior que em estudo similar realizado em 1991. A classe Social III foi a que teve tempo de percurso maior. Conclusões: O estudo conclui que o acesso a esta consulta de Psiquiatria se faz principalmente através da Medicina Geral e Familiar. O tempo de percurso é maior que o desejável por falta de recursos humanos.------- ABSTRACT: Introduction: The study of the Pathways to Psychiatric Care identifies the most important partners in accessing psychiatric services. The Goldberg- Huxley model believes that access to Psychiatric consultation is done preferably through the primary health care. Material and Methods: This survey included 93 first-time users of the Psychiatric Consultation of Sintra. The aim was to study the trajectory of the user since he had felt a need to be consulted until the consultation of Psychiatry, the symptoms that led to the decision to seek help and influence of social class in time spent in pathways. This study used the Encounter Form, a questionnaire developed by Gater. Social class of users was also assessed using the Scale of Graffar. Results: We observed that users have contact with General Practitionaires in 71% of cases, the Psychiatric Urgency in 16.1% of cases, the Hospital Medical Specialist in 10.7% of cases and the General Urgency in 1,1% of cases. On the Graffar scale middle class (Class III) was the most prevalent. The travel time spend in pathways was reater than that obtained in a similar study carried out in 1991. Social Class III group had a greater time spent on pathways. Conclusions: The study concludes that access to this Psychiatric consultation is principally through general practice. The time spent in pathways is greater than desirable due to lack of resources.

Structure du temps de travail des infirmières de santé publique: effets de l'âge des patients, de la nature des prestations fournies et du lieu du contact. [Structure of work times of public health nurses: effect of the age of patients, nature of care given and location of contact].

In the framework of health services research sponsored by the Swiss National Science Foundation, a research was undertaken of the activity of the large majority of the public health nurses working in the Swiss cantons of Vaud and Fribourg (total population 700,000). During one week, 130 nurses gathered, with a specially devised instrument, data on 4165 patient visits. Studying the duration of the contacts, one has distinguished contact duration per se (DC), duration of the travel time preceding the contact (DD), and total duration in relation with the contact (DTC-addition of the first two). It was noted that the three durations increased significantly with patient age (as regard travel time, this is explained by the higher proportion of home visits in higher age groups, as compared with visits at a health center). Examined according to location of the visit, contact duration per se (without travel) is higher for visits at home and in nursing homes than for those taking place at a health center. Looked at in respect to the care given (technical care, or basic nursing care, or both simultaneously), our data show that the provision of basic nursing care (alone or with technical care) doubles contact duration (from 20 to 42-45'). The analyses according to patient age shows that, at an advanced age (beyond 80 years particularly), there is an important increase of the visits where both types of care are given. However, contact duration per se shows a significant raise with age only for the group "technical care only"; it can be demonstrated that this is due to the fact that older patients require more complex technical acts (e.g., bladder care, as compared with simpler acts such as injection). A model of the relationships between patient age and contact duration is proposed: it is because of the increase in the proportions of home visits, of visits including basic nursing care, and of more complex technical acts that older persons require more of the working time of public health nurses.

The impact of agglomeration effects and accessibility on wages

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the effects of agglomeration and road accessibility on productivity of firms by looking at the case of Spain. We approach productivity indirectly by using individual wages allocated at the NUTS III level. We use a repeated cross-section of individual micro-data for the years 1995, 2002 and 2006. The availability of interprovincial travel time data for each of the three years allows controlling for transport improvements over the period by using a market potential variable. Additionally, agglomeration is approached by employment density and we control for localization economies, human capital externalities and a large set of individual and workplace characteristics. Estimating by instrumental variables, our results show a positive and significant effect of market accessibility on wages and non linear effect for employment density.

Driving competition in local gasoline markets

Relevant market definition is still a key element of economic analysis of competition in the gasoline market. It is particularly difficult to handle when competition is local and market power is geographically constrained like is the case in the gasoline market. We analyse how the application of the hypothetical monopolist or Small but Significant Non-Transitory Increase in Prices (SSNIP) test performs for defining isochrones using only information on prices and distance among competitors. We conclude that geographic information systems can be very successfully used to define more precisely relevant geographic market in the gasoline retailing. The application to the Spanish gasoline market concludes that geographic relevant market is composed by 5-6 minutes of travel time. Localised market power should be taken into account when analysing the adverse effects of mergers and entry regulations in gasoline retailing. Only drawing small enough isochrones will drive competition in local markets because it is just close rivals that compete effectively with each other.

Phylogeny of subtribe Gentianinae (Gentianaceae): biogeographic inferences despite limitations in temporal calibration points

The subtribe Gentianinae comprises ca. 425 species, most of them within the well-studied genus Gentiana and mainly distributed over the Eurasian continent. Phylogenetic relationships between Gentiana and its closest relatives, the climbing gentians (Crawfurdia, Tripterospermum) and the new genus Metagentiana, remain unclear. All three genera were recently found to be polyphyletic, possibly because of poor sampling of Tripterospermum and Crawfurdia. Highest diversity of Gentianinae occurs in the western Himalaya, but the absence of uncontroversial fossil evidence limits our understanding of its biogeography. In the present study, we generated ITS and atpB-rbcL sequences for 19 species of Tripterospermum, 9 of Crawfurdia and 11 of Metagentiana, together representing about 60 percent of the species diversity of these genera. Our results show that only Metagentiana is polyphyletic and divided into three monophyletic entities. No unambiguous synapomorphies were associated with the three Metagentiana entities. Different combinations of three approximate calibration points were used to generate three divergence time estimation scenarios. Although dating hypotheses were mostly inconsistent, they concurred in associating radiation of Gentiana to an orogenic phase of the Himalaya between 15 and 10 million years ago. Our study illustrates the conceptual difficulties in addressing the time frame of diversification in a group lacking sufficient fossil number and quality.