La evolución de destinos turísticos litorales consolidados. Análisis comparado de Balneario Camnoriú (Brasil) y Benidorm (España)

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en estudiar la evolución de los destinos turísticos litorales consolidados a partir del análisis comparado entre Balneario Camboriú y Benidorm. Se trata de dos destinos localizados en contextos territoriales y turísticos diferentes, en los que se contrastan de manera empírica los indicadores de evolución de los destinos y se vinculan las dinámicas evolutivas con el modelo territorial-turístico resultante en cada destino. El análisis realizado permite contrastar los postulados de los modelos evolutivos clásicos (Butler, 1980) e incorporar los nuevos planteamientos de la geografía económica evolutiva. La investigación delimita cronológicamente los periodos de desarrollo de ambos destinos para identificar los factores con mayor incidencia en la evolución de los mismos. Una evolución marcada, fundamentalmente, por la ubicación geográfica, la planificación y gestión urbanoturística a diferentes escalas, la dependencia de determinados mercados emisores y la influencia de factores macroeconómicos. Un conjunto de factores interrelacionados que dibujan trayectorias dispares para los destinos analizados.

Wind generation output during cold weather-driven electricity demand peaks in Ireland

Recent cold winters and prolonged periods of low wind speeds have prompted concerns about the increasing penetration of wind generation in the Irish and other northern European power systems. On the combined Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland system there was in excess of 1.5 GW of installed wind power in January 2010. As the penetration of these variable, non-dispatchable generators increases, power systems are becoming more sensitive to weather events on the supply side as well as on the demand side. In the temperate climate of Ireland, sensitivity of supply to weather is mainly due to wind variability while demand sensitivity is driven by space heating or cooling loads. The interplay of these two weather-driven effects is of particular concern if demand spikes driven by low temperatures coincide with periods of low winds. In December 2009 and January 2010 Ireland experienced a prolonged spell of unusually cold conditions. During much of this time, wind generation output was low due to low wind speeds. The impacts of this event are presented as a case study of the effects of weather extremes on power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable generation.

Empleo y actividad económica en jóvenes: tendencias actuales en las economías avanzadas de Europa occidental”

This article describes the evolution of the labour market position of youth in European advanced economies in the last 3 decades, its main institutional determinants and policy instruments. In this period of time, we have witnessed the rise of the phenomenon of youth unemployment and, more recently, of joblessness. Still, youth fares quite differently across European countries. These differentials seem to be linked to institutional features of educational systems (school-to-work transitions) and labour markets (insiders-outsiders divide), and their interactions. Remedies have concentrated on the supply side of this equation (ALMP, minimum wages), leaving on the side the demand one (job creation). We conclude drawing some implications for the Chilean youth labour market concerning the necessity to develop active labour market measures to improve the transition to work processes, and to deal with the strong segmentation which still characterizes it.

An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Managing Future offshore wind power variability in a European Supergrid

The future European power system will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from a Supergrid via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the context of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called 'back-up generation' needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050. © 2013 IEEE.

Wind generation and electricity demand during the severe winter of 2009/10 in Ireland

Throughout the world the share of wind power in the generation mix is increasing. In the All Island Grid, of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland there is now over 1.5 GW of installed wind power. As the penetration of these variable, non-dispatchable generators increases, power systems are becoming more sensitive to weather events on the supply side as well as on the demand side. In the temperate climate of Ireland, sensitivity of supply to weather is mainly due to wind variability while demand sensitivity is driven by space heating or cooling loads. The interplay of these two weather-driven effects is of particular concern if demand spikes driven by low temperatures coincide with periods of low winds. In December 2009 and January 2010 Ireland experienced a prolonged spell of unusually cold conditions. During much of this time, wind generation output was low due to low wind speeds. The impacts of this event are presented as a case study of the effects of weather extremes on power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable generation.

Market Economies with an Endogenous Social Division of Labour

This paper considers a general equilibrium theory of a competitive market economy with an endogenous social division of labour. The theory is founded on the notion of a “consumer- producer”, who consumes as well as produces commodities. In this approach, the emergence of a meaningful social division of labour is guided by the property of increasing returns to specialisation and the process of trade among fully specialised individuals. All decisions of individual consumer-producers are based on a set of perfectly competitive market prices of the commodities in the economy.
We show that a perfectly competitive price mechanism supports a dichotomy of production and consumption at the level of the individual consumer-producer. In this context we show existence of competitive equilibria and characterise these equilibria under increasing returns to specialisation: Under certain well-described conditions, markets are equilibrated through adjustment of the social division of labour; therefore prices are fully determined by the supply side of the economy.

Gendered Candidate Selection and the Representation of Women in Northern Ireland

In an attempt to account for the exceptionally low levels of female representation in Northern Ireland, this paper provides an analysis of the contemporary candidate selection procedures of the region's five main political parties. Drawing on evidence gathered from 29 elite interviews, plus official internal party documents, the study finds that the localised nature of the parties' selection procedures may disadvantage women aspirants. Also important are ‘supply-side’ factors influencing legislative recruitment and female participation rates, namely the strongly embedded social norm of female domestic responsibility, a masculinised political culture and the lack of confidence of potential female candidates.

Holding the Door Half (?) Open: the EU and Turkey 10 years on

A decade of accession negotiations with the EU has not brought Turkey significantly closer to EU membership. In part the reasons lie with Turkey. This article, however, explores the position of the EU and the ‘supply-side’ of enlargement. It reflects on developments in how the EU has engaged with Turkey on the question of membership, situating Turkey’s candidacy and the EU’s position within the broader comparative context of how the process and politics of EU enlargement have evolved over the last ten years. It focuses on a set of supply-side variables that are key to determining the progress that applicants can make towards membership: member state preferences, the activism of supranational institutional actors, the EU’s integration capacity, public opinion in the EU towards enlargement, and the narratives deployed in justification of enlargement. The article also considers the state of Turkey’s accession negotiations and how they have been and potentially will be affected, assuming they are meaningfully revived, by the evolving nature and substance of EU accession negotiations more generally and EU’s approach to conditionality.

Seawater acidification by CO2 in a coastal lagoon environment: Effects on life history traits of juvenile mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis

The carbonate chemistry of seawater fromthe Ria Formosa lagoon was experimentallymanipulated, by diffusing pure CO2, to attain two reduced pH levels, by−0.3 and−0.6 pH units, relative to unmanipulated seawater. After 84 days of exposure, no differences were detected in terms of growth (somatic or shell) or mortality of juvenile mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis. The naturally elevated total alkalinity of the seawater (≈3550 μmol kg−1) prevented under-saturation of CaCO3, evenunder pCO2 values exceeding 4000 μatm, attenuating the detrimental effects on the carbonate supply-side. Even so, variations in shell weight showed that net calcification was reduced under elevated CO2 and reduced pH, although the magnitude and significance of this effect varied among size-classes. Most of the loss of shell material probably occurred as post-deposition dissolution in the internal aragonitic nacre layer. Our results show that, even when reared under extreme levels of CO2- induced acidification, juvenileM. galloprovincialis can continue to calcify and grow in this coastal lagoon environment. The complex responses of bivalves to ocean acidification suggest a large degree of interspecific and intraspecific variability in their sensitivity to this type of perturbation. Further research is needed to assess the generality of these patterns and to disentangle the relative contributions of acclimation to local variations in seawater chemistry and genetic adaptation.

Tourism in Timor Leste: contributions to a sustainable development

The main goal of this thesis is to analyse tourism as a contributor to sustainable development, from a supply and demand perspective, in Timor-Leste, a destination not only “young” but also framed in an early stage of touristic development. From the supply side, studies 1 and 2 present a literature review on the concept of sustainable development, in small islands destinations, its weaknesses and vulnerabilities, and whose attractiveness lies in an integrated set of natural resources (attractive beaches, biodiversity, the coral triangle, a rich fauna and flora), its geographic location, tropical climate, socio cultural tradition and a Luso-Timorense cultural mix, that can meet the needs of important segments of the tourist demand. In these studies, the focus is on the residents’ attitudes in relation to sustainable development and, in particular, on the perceptions of local leaders about the importance of the operationalization of the concept. As Timor-Leste is a “young” destination, it is travel industry is still faced with several problems in order to be able to satisfy the demand and to meet the tourists’ motivations, preferences and requirements. In this perspective, the study 3 examines diaspora tourism, while a niche market, allowing for not only the entry of Timor-Leste in the international tourism market, but also an articulation between the people of Timor-Leste in the diasporas and the development of sustainable tourism . In general, the results show that the development of sustainable tourism cannot be successfully implemented without the involvement of all stakeholders such as residents, public sector (local government, policy makers, planners), private sector (tourism operators), and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that include civil society, religious institutions, the academic community (the supply side), and Timorese diasporas tourists as consumers (the demand side).

From the Government to the Streets: Why the U.S. is a Policy Innovator in Disability Rights

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2012

Portuguese Citizens’ Support for Democracy: 40 Years after the Carnation Revolution

Forty years after the Carnation Revolution, the relatively young Portuguese democracy is experiencing dramatically low levels of public specific support for democracy. This article tests the leverage of demand-side and supply-side accounts to explain differentials in public satisfaction with democracy. Through ordinary least squares regression analyses that draw on the unique data of the ‘Barometer 40 Years of Democracy in Portugal (2014)’, this articles shows that age cohort, identification with extreme parties, evaluation of the country’s political past, and economic performance are strong correlates of citizens’ specific support for democracy

Is there really a value in entrepreneurship education?

This paper considers whether entrepreneurship education has a value outside of the education institutions in which it takes place. The paper takes an indirect form of enquiry and argues that entrepreneurship education is driven by three factors; the growing emphasis on supply side policy interventions in the economy; the emphasis placed on the agency of management in the growing literature on globalisation and international reforms to public sector organisations. The paper concludes that there is a tension between the activity as descriptive and the activity as promotion and until this tension is resolved it is unlikely that there will be clarity about the value of this form of education.

eHealth e a adoção da inovação em assisted living technologies : o caso das demências

RESUMO - Assistimos hoje a um contexto marcado (i) pelo progressivo envelhecimento das sociedades ocidentais, (ii) pelo aumento da prevalência das doenças crónicas, de que as demências são um exemplo, (iii) pelo significativo aumento dos custos associados a estas patologias, (iv) por orçamentos públicos fortemente pressionadas pelo controlo da despesa, (v) por uma vida moderna que dificulta o apoio intergeracional, tornando o suporte proporcionado pelos filhos particularmente difícil, (vi) por fortes expectativas relativamente à prestação de cuidados de saúde com qualidade. Teremos assim de ser capazes de conseguir melhorar os serviços de saúde, ao mesmo tempo que recorremos a menos recursos financeiros e humanos, pelo que a inovação parece ser crítica para a sustentabilidade do sistema. Contudo a difusão das Assistive Living Technologies, apesar do seu potencial, tem sido bastante baixa, nomeadamente em Portugal. Porquê? Hamer, Plochg e Moreira (2012), no editorial do International Journal of Healthcare Management, enquadram a Inovação como “podendo ser imprevisível e mesmo dolorosa, pelo que talvez possamos não ficar surpreendidos se surgirem resistências e que, inovações bastante necessárias, capazes de melhorar os indicadores de saúde, tenham sido de adoção lenta ou que tenham mesmo sido insustentáveis”. Em Portugal não há bibliografia que procure caracterizar o modelo de difusão da inovação em eHealth ou das tecnologias de vivência assistida. A bibliografia internacional é igualmente escassa. O presente projeto de investigação, de natureza exploratória, tem como objetivo principal, identificar barreiras e oportunidades para a implementação de tecnologias eHealth, aplicadas ao campo das demências. Como objetivos secundários pretendemse identificar as oportunidades e limitações em Portugal: mapa de competências nacionais, e propor medidas que possa acelerar a inovação em ALT, no contexto nacional. O projeto seguirá o modelo de um estudo qualitativo. Para o efeito foram conduzidas entrevistas em profundidade junto de experts em ALT, procurando obter a visão daqueles que participam do lado da Oferta- a Indústria; do lado da Procura- doentes, cuidadores e profissionais de saúde; bem como dos Reguladores. O instrumento utilizado para a recolha da informação pretendida foi o questionário não estruturado. A análise e interpretação da informação recolhida foram feitas através da técnica de Análise de Conteúdo. Os resultados da Análise de Conteúdo efetuada permitiram expressar a dicotomia barreira/oportunidade, nas seguintes categorias aqui descritas como contextos (i) Contexto Tecnológico, nas subcategorias de Acesso às Infraestruturas; Custo da Tecnologia; Interoperabilidade, (ii) Contexto do Valor Percecionado, nas subcategorias de Utilidade; Eficiência; Divulgação, (iii) Contexto Político, compreendendo a Liderança; Organização; Regulação; Recursos, (iv) Contexto Sociocultural, incluindo nomeadamente Idade; Literacia; Capacidade Económica, (v) Contexto Individual, incluindo como subcategorias, Capacidade de Adaptação a Novas tecnologias; Motivação; Acesso a equipamentos (vi) Contexto Específico da Doença, nomeadamente o Impacto Cognitivo; Tipologia Heterogénea e a Importância do Cuidador. Foi proposto um modelo exploratório, designado de Modelo de Contextos e Forças, que estudos subsequentes poderão validar. Neste modelo o Contexto Tecnológico é um Força Básica ou Fundamental; o Contexto do Valor Percecionado, constitui-se numa Força Crítica para a adoção de inovação, que assenta na sua capacidade para oferecer valor aos diversos stakeholders da cadeia de cuidados. Temos também o Contexto Político, com capacidade de modelar a adoção da inovação e nomeadamente com capacidade para o acelerar, se dele emitir um sinal de urgência para a mudança. O Contexto Sociocultural e Individual expressam uma Força Intrínseca, dado que elas são características internas, próprias e imutáveis no curto-prazo, das sociedade e das pessoas. Por fim há que considerar o Contexto Específico da Doença, nesta caso o das demências. Das conclusões do estudo parece evidente que as condições tecnológicas estão medianamente satisfeitas em Portugal, com evidentes progressos nos últimos anos (exceção para a interoperabilidade aonde há necessidade de maiores progressos), não constituindo portanto barreira à introdução de ALT. Aonde há necessidade de investir é nas áreas do valor percebido. Da análise feita, esta é uma área que constitui uma barreira à introdução e adoção das ALT em Portugal. A falta de perceção do valor que estas tecnologias trazem, por parte dos profissionais de saúde, doentes, cuidadores e decisores políticos, parece ser o principal entrave à sua adoção. São recomendadas estratégias de modelos colaborativos de Investigação e Desenvolvimento e de abordagens de cocriação com a contribuição de todos os intervenientes na cadeia de cuidados. Há também um papel que cabe ao estado no âmbito das prioridades e da mobilização de recursos, sendo-lhe requerida a expressão do sentido de urgência para que esta mudança aconteça. Foram também identificadas oportunidades em diversas áreas, como na prevenção, no diagnóstico, na compliance medicamentosa, na terapêutica, na monitorização, no apoio à vida diária e na integração social. O que é necessário é que as soluções encontradas constituam respostas àquilo que são as verdadeiras necessidades dos intervenientes e não uma imposição tecnológica que só por si nada resolve. Do estudo resultou também a perceção de que há que (i) continuar a trabalhar no sentido de aproximar a comunidade científica, da clínica e do doente, (ii) fomentar a colaboração entre centros, com vista à criação de escala a nível global. Essa colaboração já parece acontecer a nível empresarial, tendo sido identificadas empresas Portuguesas com vocação global. A qualidade individual das instituições de ensino, dos centros de investigação, das empresas, permite criar as condições para que Portugal possa ser país um piloto e um case-study internacional em ALT, desde que para tal pudéssemos contar com um trabalho colaborativo entre instituições e com decisões políticas arrojadas.