Räumliche Modellierung der Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen und ihrer Wirkung auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung - Entwicklung eines GIS-basierten Modellsystems

Die gegenwärtige Entwicklung der internationalen Klimapolitik verlangt von Deutschland eine Reduktion seiner Treibhausgasemissionen. Wichtigstes Treibhausgas ist Kohlendioxid, das durch die Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger in die Atmosphäre freigesetzt wird. Die Reduktionsziele können prinzipiell durch eine Verminderung der Emissionen sowie durch die Schaffung von Kohlenstoffsenken erreicht werden. Senken beschreiben dabei die biologische Speicherung von Kohlenstoff in Böden und Wäldern. Eine wichtige Einflussgröße auf diese Prozesse stellt die räumliche Dynamik der Landnutzung einer Region dar. In dieser Arbeit wird das Modellsystem HILLS entwickelt und zur Simulation dieser komplexen Wirkbeziehungen im Bundesland Hessen genutzt. Ziel ist es, mit HILLS über eine Analyse des aktuellen Zustands hinaus auch Szenarien über Wege der zukünftigen regionalen Entwicklung von Landnutzung und ihrer Wirkung auf den Kohlenstoffhaushalt bis 2020 zu untersuchen. Für die Abbildung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen wird das Modell LUCHesse entwickelt. Seine Aufgabe ist die Simulation der relevanten Prozesse auf einem 1 km2 Raster, wobei die Raten der Änderung exogen als Flächentrends auf Ebene der hessischen Landkreise vorgegeben werden. LUCHesse besteht aus Teilmodellen für die Prozesse: (A) Ausbreitung von Siedlungs- und Gewerbefläche, (B) Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor sowie (C) Neuanlage von Waldflächen (Aufforstung). Jedes Teilmodell umfasst Methoden zur Bewertung der Standorteignung der Rasterzellen für unterschiedliche Landnutzungsklassen und zur Zuordnung der Trendvorgaben zu solchen Rasterzellen, die jeweils am besten für eine Landnutzungsklasse geeignet sind. Eine Validierung der Teilmodelle erfolgt anhand von statistischen Daten für den Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2000. Als Ergebnis eines Simulationslaufs werden für diskrete Zeitschritte digitale Karten der Landnutzugsverteilung in Hessen erzeugt. Zur Simulation der Kohlenstoffspeicherung wird eine modifizierte Version des Ökosystemmodells Century entwickelt (GIS-Century). Sie erlaubt einen gesteuerten Simulationslauf in Jahresschritten und unterstützt die Integration des Modells als Komponente in das HILLS Modellsystem. Es werden verschiedene Anwendungsschemata für GIS-Century entwickelt, mit denen die Wirkung der Stilllegung von Ackerflächen, der Aufforstung sowie der Bewirtschaftung bereits bestehender Wälder auf die Kohlenstoffspeicherung untersucht werden kann. Eine Validierung des Modells und der Anwendungsschemata erfolgt anhand von Feld- und Literaturdaten. HILLS implementiert eine sequentielle Kopplung von LUCHesse mit GIS-Century. Die räumliche Kopplung geschieht dabei auf dem 1 km2 Raster, die zeitliche Kopplung über die Einführung eines Landnutzungsvektors, der die Beschreibung der Landnutzungsänderung einer Rasterzelle während des Simulationszeitraums enthält. Außerdem integriert HILLS beide Modelle über ein dienste- und datenbankorientiertes Konzept in ein Geografisches Informationssystem (GIS). Auf diesem Wege können die GIS-Funktionen zur räumlichen Datenhaltung und Datenverarbeitung genutzt werden. Als Anwendung des Modellsystems wird ein Referenzszenario für Hessen mit dem Zeithorizont 2020 berechnet. Das Szenario setzt im Agrarsektor eine Umsetzung der AGENDA 2000 Politik voraus, die in großem Maße zu Stilllegung von Ackerflächen führt, während für den Bereich Siedlung und Gewerbe sowie Aufforstung die aktuellen Trends der Flächenausdehnung fortgeschrieben werden. Mit HILLS ist es nun möglich, die Wirkung dieser Landnutzungsänderungen auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung zu quantifizieren. Während die Ausdehnung von Siedlungsflächen als Kohlenstoffquelle identifiziert werden kann (37 kt C/a), findet sich die wichtigste Senke in der Bewirtschaftung bestehender Waldflächen (794 kt C/a). Weiterhin führen die Stilllegung von Ackerfläche (26 kt C/a) sowie Aufforstung (29 kt C/a) zu einer zusätzlichen Speicherung von Kohlenstoff. Für die Kohlenstoffspeicherung in Böden zeigen die Simulationsexperimente sehr klar, dass diese Senke nur von beschränkter Dauer ist.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Configurando a cidade contemporânea em Natal : os processos espaciais em Ponta Negra

This dissertation is about the spatial configuration in Natal and processes in the Ponta Negra neighborhood today. Ponta Negra has undergone a number of critical social and spatial changes due to tourism development after the 1990s. It is of special interest to consider the intensification of real estate investment after 2000, when the new airport terminal, located in the neighboring municipality of Parnamirim, was in use. Ponta Negra is the place where most tourists go to, so attracting considerable public investments. New agents of transformation have produced change in the neighborhood as well. The present study aims at analysing the spatial processes in this part of the city. Here, the spatial configuration that resulted from extended real estate investments, both public and private, in recent years, is analysed in detail. The study identifies the multually differentiated, however internally homogenous areas. The concepts of production of space, contemporanean urban development and spatial dynamics are discussed. The research is based on document analysis and field work. Results were plotted to maps and tables. A detailed analysis of the spatial processes in the Ponta Negra neighborhood is undertaken as a conclusion, considering the contemporanean global scenario

Distribuição Espacial da Lagarta-do-Cartucho, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), na Cultura do Milho

O estudo da distribuição espacial da lagarta-do-cartucho, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), na cultura do milho é fundamental para garantir a utilização de estratégias de controle, otimização de técnicas de amostragem, determinação de danos econômicos e incorporação da dinâmica espacial dentro do modelo populacional. O experimento foi conduzido em três campos contendo 100 parcelas cada, sendo amostradas 10 plantas ao acaso por parcela, num total de 1000 plantas por campo em cinco datas de amostragem. Foram contados o número de lagartas pequenas (menor que 10 mm) e grandes (maior que 10 mm) por planta. As lagartas pequenas apresentaram um ajuste muito bom à distribuição binomial negativa e não à Poisson, indicando que esta categoria larval encontra-se agregada no campo. Os números de lagartas grandes por planta ajustaram-se razoavelmente à distribuição binomial negativa, com algumas datas ajustando-se à distribuição de Poisson. Portanto, as lagartas pequenas (alta densidade populacional) têm distribuição agregada no campo, enquanto que as lagartas grandes (baixa densidade populacional) podem ser mais dispersas no campo, tendendo à aleatoriedade.

Feira livre de Macaíba/RN : um estudo das modificações na dinâmica socioespacial (1960/2006)

The objective of the current piece of research is to reflect upon the diverse changes that have occurred in the social and spatial dynamics of the Macaíba fair in the period between 1960 and 2006. During the second half of the 19th century, Macaíba had in the commerce one of this principle economic base a contribution for which the city became one of the main commercial warehouses of the East coast of the Rio Grande do Norte region. This helped lead to the growth of Macaíba s fair, which proved to be one of the most important existing in the state until the 1970 s. In the last two decades of the 20th century, certain elements represented challenges to the fair at Macaíba. These challenges stimulated substantial changes in the fair s dynamics which include the growth and expansion of the commercial and service sector, primarily though supermarkets; consolidation among the commercial and distribution networks, represented by the Central Office of Supply of the Rio Grande do Norte S/A (Ceasa/RN), by the wholesale and refrigeration companies; and the modernization of transportation methods, which permitted an expanded reach for these networks. Even with all these changes, the fair continues to be one of the strongest aspects of the city being the center of resistance against the surge of new forms of commerce and consumption in the city (notable the supermarkets) and the diffusion of other aspects of globalization. The fair has economic importance, as it offers a popular marketplace for the commercialization of very different products and a means for supplying goods to the residents of the city and the rural communities of Macaíba and the surrounding municipalities; and socio-cultural importance in that the fair is a place where popular tradition is expressed, a place where a great number of parallel activities occur, a place for meeting again and again, of conversations, of manifestations of culture and art, and of socialization in all of its dimensions

De baixo para cima: implicações socioespaciais da transferência da feira livre na (re)produção do espaço urbano de Nova Cruz-RN (1991-2010)

The present work is about the reproduction of the urban area of Nova Cruz RN, with the objective of analyzing the social and spatial implications of the relocation of the main street market in the city from 1991 on. Nowadays, the city of Nova Cruz takes over importance in the potiguar social and spatial scenario due to its condition of central city which is practiced for decades in Potiguar Agreste Microregion. Beginning with its formation process connected with traveler‟s hostel which assisted the activity of cattle transportation, further in time by the golden era of cotton production in its territory, it was noticed that its importance in relation with the nearby towns has been happening differently throughout time. From the year 1991 on, the town of Nova Cruz has gone through a territory restructuring of its urban area due to the relocation of the open market from Downtown neighborhood to São Sebastião neighborhood. Such territorial movement resulted in a reformation of the town‟s urban space, promoting in both neighborhoods urban growth and the expansion of commercial activity associated with the migration of the commercial center of the city. The transference of the commercial area has caused these processes through the new uses of the land towards the São Sebastião region, it has also caused a decrease in market value of the downtown area as a result of the breakdown of previous existing business activities, their service contribution and the citizen migration, establishing a space and socioeconomic portrait in the neighborhood. From this context, our analysis seeks to understand the social and spatial impacts occurred in Downtown neighborhood, the way in which the production and reproduction of the urban space in São Sebastião neighborhood and the implications resulted from the actions of the administrative power in restructuring of the urban space of Nova Cruz. In order to do so, a bibliographical research was used to compose our theoretic-conceptual mark, discussing the matter with authors such as Roberto Lobato Corrêa, Ana Fani, Milton Santos, Manuel Castells e Heri Lefvbre, among others, discussing on the subject of urban analysis, the concepts of urban space and the process of reproduction of the urban space. A field research was utilized in our area of study by means of primary data gathering through interviews, questionnaire and photographic register. Secondary data gathering was also obtained by means of bibliographical and documental research related to our study object. By these means, it was sought to contribute to the understanding of the urban space through its production and reproduction based upon the discovery of social and spatial practices

A expansão do mercado imobiliário em Mossoró: acumulação capitalista e o aprofundamento das contradições socioespaciais

The housing market in Mossoró Rio Grande do Norte (RN) - Brazil have expanded at present moment, causing important changes in the economy and altering the configuration of urban space in the city. However, the effects of this process adversely affect the poor population of the city, creating a series of social problems. This process becomes still more contradictory with the presence of the Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida Program My House My Life (PMCMV). Although this program has to a central purpose (at least in theory) of solve part of the problem of housing scarcity in the country, in the practice its closely links to the logic of capital, stimulates the housing market, cooperating to increased speculation, contributing thus for the more expensive valor of urban land and buildings, putting up as an impediment to the poor population to access to homeownership and decent housing. In this perspective, this paper investigates the nature of the current process of expanding of housing market, animated largely by funds from the PMCMV, and its implications on the social and spatial dynamics of Mossoró, focusing especially the deepening of urban crisis and the contradictions of urban space in this city

Integrodifference model for blowfly invasion

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Body size and flight distance in stingless bees (Hymenoptera: Meliponini): inference of flight range and possible ecological implications

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Current status, uncertainty and future needs in soil organic carbon monitoring

Increasing human demands on soil-derived ecosystem services requires reliable data on global soil resources for sustainable development. The soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is a key indicator of soil quality as it affects essential biological, chemical and physical soil functions such as nutrient cycling, pesticide and water retention, and soil structure maintenance. However, information on the SOC pool, and its temporal and spatial dynamics is unbalanced. Even in well-studied regions with a pronounced interest in environmental issues information on soil carbon (C) is inconsistent. Several activities for the compilation of global soil C data are under way. However, different approaches for soil sampling and chemical analyses make even regional comparisons highly uncertain. Often, the procedures used so far have not allowed the reliable estimation of the total SOC pool, partly because the available knowledge is focused on not clearly defined upper soil horizons and the contribution of subsoil to SOC stocks has been less considered. Even more difficult is quantifying SOC pool changes over time. SOC consists of variable amounts of labile and recalcitrant molecules of plant, and microbial and animal origin that are often operationally defined. A comprehensively active soil expert community needs to agree on protocols of soil surveying and lab procedures towards reliable SOC pool estimates. Already established long-term ecological research sites, where SOC changes are quantified and the underlying mechanisms are investigated, are potentially the backbones for regional, national, and international SOC monitoring programs. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

O processo de reestruturação produtiva nas indústrias de Catanduva – SP

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Organização comunitária e desenvolvimento territorial: o contexto ribeirinho em uma ilha da Amazônia

Este trabalho é um estudo de caso sobre comunidades ribeirinhas do estuário amazônico em que se analisam as dinâmicas sócio-espaciais e a organização comunitária da população que reside na ilha do Combu. Trata-se de averiguar a organização espacial e territorialidade das comunidades, ou seja, a produção e reprodução da vida material e econômica buscando nessas experiências aportes que venham servir de referência para outras localidades rurais tendo em vista o debate sobre o desenvolvimento regional. Servem como amostra da pesquisa 54 unidades familiares distribuídas em quatro comunidades: Igarapé Combu, Beira do Rio, Piriquitaquara e Furo do Benedito. Por ser um estudo de natureza interdisciplinar adota a perspectiva sócio-econõmica, política e cultural tendo como foco as questões: a) Como as comunidades da ilha do Combu têm se adaptado às interferências exógenas e quais as estratégias de sobrevivência; c) Quais as diferenciações, inter-relação entre os grupos e suas formas de organização e articulação; d) O que gera maior envolvimento comunitário. Os resultados mostram que a desarticulação é um fator desfavorável na organização comunitária o que implica menor possibilidade de se inserirem na sociedade como cidadãos participantes do processo de desenvolvimento e direcionadores de seu destino. A manutenção do ambiente e do bem-estar das comunidades está relacionada a aspectos que levem em conta informação e conhecimento formal, aliado à manutenção de práticas segundo as especificidades locais, pois quanto maior o grau de conhecimento e permanência no local, maior a identificação, valorização e cooperação dos ribeirinhos. A ausência desses aspectos aponta para um baixo grau de desenvolvimento ou para práticas pontuais onde eles são fracamente percebidos. Não obstante as comunidades não serem capazes de sozinhas produzirem dinâmicas que promovam seu bem-estar destaca-se o manejo florestal desenvolvido por aqueles ribeirinhos que tem servido de suporte para um maior incremento na economia uma vez que essa prática potencializa a produção de açaí, principal fonte de renda local favorecendo maior poder de compra às famílias. Isso reforça o argumento de se estabelecerem parcerias entre as instituições e a comunidade local no sentido de promover a sustentabilidade ambiental e social.

Modelo matemático para estimativa do tempo de fertirrigação

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O espaço público em cidades médias: análise da dinâmica socioespacial de praças e parques de Limeira - SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

A organização do espaço sob o olhar das ruralidades: estudo da paisagem e lugar no município de São João do Polêsine, Rio Grande do Sul

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)