Myopia and pensions in general equilibrium

The US social security tax rate has doubled in the last half century.

Does the degree of myopic behavior that we observe in the US justify the size of the social security program? To study this question we build a computable general equilibrium model that is composed of life-cycle permanent-income consumers who save optimally and “hand-to-mouth” consumers who just consume their disposable income. Our model is a continuous-time, general equilibrium extension of the model by Cremer et al. (Int Tax Public Financ 15(5):547–562, 2008), though we abstract from the redistributive function of social security to focus on myopia. Retirement is a choice variable in our model and the social security program is designed to mimic the US program in which the annuity value of benefits increases with the retirement age. Also, we allow for delayed claiming beyond the date of retirement. The model matches a variety of important data targets relating to saving and retirement. We find that small reductions in the social security tax rate provide significant welfare gains to both groups of consumers.

Método AHP como instrumento de apoio à decisão para a manutenção da qualidade da água do reservatório de Ilha Solteira

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Desenvolvimento e avaliação de um modelo de assistência contínuo, paliativo e domiciliar a pacientes com câncer mamário ou ginecológico fora de possibilidade de cura

Pós-graduação em Ginecologia, Obstetrícia e Mastologia - FMB

Software Application That Evaluates the Diagnostic Accuracy of Nursing Students

PURPOSE: Apply the educational software Fuzzy Kitten with undergraduate Brazilian nursing students. METHODS: This software, based on fuzzy logic, generates performance scores that evaluate the ability to identify defining characteristics/risk factors present in clinical cases, relate them with nursing diagnoses, and determine the diagnoses freely or using a decision support model. FINDINGS: There were differences in student performance compared to the year of the course. The time to perform the activity did not present a significant relation to the performance. The students' scores in the diagnoses indicated by the model was superior (p = .01). CONCLUSIONS: The software was able to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of students. IMPLICATIONS: The software enables an objective evaluation of diagnostic accuracy.

Development of control-oriented models of Dual Clutch Transmission systems

A control-oriented model of a Dual Clutch Transmission was developed for real-time Hardware In the Loop (HIL) applications, to support model-based development of the DCT controller. The model is an innovative attempt to reproduce the fast dynamics of the actuation system while maintaining a step size large enough for real-time applications. The model comprehends a detailed physical description of hydraulic circuit, clutches, synchronizers and gears, and simplified vehicle and internal combustion engine sub-models. As the oil circulating in the system has a large bulk modulus, the pressure dynamics are very fast, possibly causing instability in a real-time simulation; the same challenge involves the servo valves dynamics, due to the very small masses of the moving elements. Therefore, the hydraulic circuit model has been modified and simplified without losing physical validity, in order to adapt it to the real-time simulation requirements. The results of offline simulations have been compared to on-board measurements to verify the validity of the developed model, that was then implemented in a HIL system and connected to the TCU (Transmission Control Unit). Several tests have been performed: electrical failure tests on sensors and actuators, hydraulic and mechanical failure tests on hydraulic valves, clutches and synchronizers, and application tests comprehending all the main features of the control performed by the TCU. Being based on physical laws, in every condition the model simulates a plausible reaction of the system. The first intensive use of the HIL application led to the validation of the new safety strategies implemented inside the TCU software. A test automation procedure has been developed to permit the execution of a pattern of tests without the interaction of the user; fully repeatable tests can be performed for non-regression verification, allowing the testing of new software releases in fully automatic mode.

Evaluating the usefulness of soil moisture (forecasts) in streamflow prediction for central Texas

The past decade has brought significant advancements in seasonal climate forecasting. However, water resources decision support and management continues to be based almost entirely on historical observations and does not take advantage of climate forecasts. This study builds on previous work that conditioned streamflow ensemble forecasts on observable climate indicators, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for use in a decision support model for the Highland Lakes multi-reservoir system in central Texas operated by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA). In the current study, seasonal soil moisture is explored as a climate indicator and predictor of annual streamflow for the LCRA region. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation of fractional soil moisture with streamflow using the 1950-2000 Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Retrospective Land Surface Data Set over the LCRA region. Correlations were determined by examining different annual and seasonal combinations of VIC modeled fractional soil moisture and observed streamflow. The applicability of the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set as a data source for this study is tested along with establishing and analyzing patterns of climatology for the watershed study area using the selected data source (VIC model) and historical data. Correlation results showed potential for the use of soil moisture as a predictor of streamflow over the LCRA region. This was evident by the good correlations found between seasonal soil moisture and seasonal streamflow during coincident seasons as well as between seasonal and annual soil moisture with annual streamflow during coincident years. With the findings of good correlation between seasonal soil moisture from the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set with observed annual streamflow presented in this study, future research would evaluate the application of NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of soil moisture in predicting annual streamflow for use in the decision support model for the LCRA.

Subjective well-being and exercise in the second halt of life: a critical review of theoretical approaches

Research has shown repeatedly that the “feeling better” effect of exercise is far more moderate than generally claimed. Examinations of subgroups in secondary analyses also indicate that numerous further variables influence this relationship. One reason for inconsistencies in this research field is the lack of adequate theoretical analyses. Well-being output variables frequently possess no construct definition, and little attention is paid to moderating and mediating variables. This article integrates the main models in an overview and analyzes how secondary analyses define well-being and which areas of the construct they focus on. It then applies a moderator and/or mediator framework to examine which person and environmental variables can be found in the existing explanatory approaches in sport science and how they specify the influence of these moderating and mediating variables. Results show that the broad understanding of well-being in many secondary analyses makes findings difficult to interpret. Moreover, physiological explanatory approaches focus more on affective changes in well-being, whereas psychological approaches also include cognitive changes. The approaches focus mostly on either physical or psychological person variables and rarely combine the two, as in, for example, the dual-mode model. Whereas environmental variables specifying the treatment more closely (e.g., its intensity) are comparatively frequent, only the social support model formulates variables such as the framework in which exercise is presented. The majority of explanatory approaches use simple moderator and/or mediator models such as the basic mediated (e.g., distraction hypothesis) or multiple mediated (e.g., monoamine hypotheses) model. The discussion draws conclusions for future research.

Long-term effectiveness of supported employment: 5-year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial

Objective The individual placement and support model of supported employment has been shown to be more effective than other vocational approaches in improving competitive work over 1-2 years in persons with severe mental illness. The authors evaluated the longer-term effects of the model compared with traditional vocational rehabilitation over 5 years. Method A randomized controlled trial compared supported employment to traditional vocational rehabilitation in 100 unemployed persons with severe mental illness. Competitive work and hospital admissions were tracked for 5 years, and interviews were conducted at 2 and 5 years to assess recovery attitudes and quality of life. A cost-benefit analysis compared program and total treatment costs to earnings from competitive employment. Results The beneficial effects of supported employment on work at 2 years were sustained over the 5-year follow-up period. Participants in supported employment were more likely to obtain competitive work than those in traditional vocational rehabilitation (65% compared with 33%), worked more hours and weeks, earned more wages, and had longer job tenures. Reliance on supported employment services for retaining competitive work decreased from 2 years to 5 years for participants in supported employment. Participants were also significantly less likely to be hospitalized, had fewer psychiatric hospital admissions, and spent fewer days in the hospital. The social return on investment was higher for supported employment participants, whether calculated as the ratio of work earnings to vocational program costs or of work earnings to total vocational program and mental health treatment costs. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the greater effectiveness of supported employment in improving competitive work outcomes is sustained beyond 2 years and suggest that supported employment programs contribute to reduced hospitalizations and produce a higher social return on investment.

El modelo de apoyo a las personas con capacidades modificadas judicialmente según Naciones Unidas

Este artículo se basa en una investigación social sobre el sistema de protección jurídica de las personas con algún tipo de discapacidad o en situación de dependencia que se encuentran sometidas a las figuras de tutela o curatela, en aplicación de lo previsto y establecido en el Código Civil Español, en sus artículos 199 y 200, así como en la Ley de Enjuiciamiento Civil. La investigación se plantea como un estudio comparado entre diferentes países de la Unión Europea para ver su adecuación a lo establecido en el artículo 12 de la Convención de Naciones Unidas sobre derechos de las Personas con Discapacidad (en adelante, CDPD) en los procedimientos de incapacitación. Los resultados se analizan sobre la base de modelos técnico-sociales de intervención, los análisis jurídicos y la experiencia adquirida por las Fundación Tutelares de Castilla y León. Se proponen y diseñan algunas alternativas y servicios que pueden mejorar la calidad de vida de las personas adultas incapacitadas judicialmente y el tipo de apoyos que se les puede prestar, de acuerdo a lo establecido en la Convención de Naciones Unidas.

Characterization of heat-treated porous carbons using argon adsorption

The microstructural variation of Norit RI Extra activated carbon, progressively heated at 1373 K, was explored in terms of pore size and pore wall thickness distributions, for various periods of heating time, determined by argon adsorption at 87 K, both using an infinite as well as and finite wall thickness model. The latter approach has recently been developed in our laboratory and has been applied to several virgin carbons. The current results show significant variations in small pore size regions (< 7 angstrom) in association with strong growth of thick walls having at least three carbon sheets, as a result of heat treatment. In particular, shrinkage of the smallest pores due to strong interaction between their opposite walls as well as smoothening of carbon wall surfaces due to an increase in graphitization degree under thermal treatment have been found. Further, the results of pore wall thickness distribution are well corroborated by X-ray diffraction. The results of pore size and pore wall thickness distributions are also shown to be consistent with transmission electron microscopy analyses. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introducing uncertainty into pattern discovery in temporal event sequences

Pattern discovery in temporal event sequences is of great importance in many application domains, such as telecommunication network fault analysis. In reality, not every type of event has an accurate timestamp. Some of them, defined as inaccurate events may only have an interval as possible time of occurrence. The existence of inaccurate events may cause uncertainty in event ordering. The traditional support model cannot deal with this uncertainty, which would cause some interesting patterns to be missing. A new concept, precise support, is introduced to evaluate the probability of a pattern contained in a sequence. Based on this new metric, we define the uncertainty model and present an algorithm to discover interesting patterns in the sequence database that has one type of inaccurate event. In our model, the number of types of inaccurate events can be extended to k readily, however, at a cost of increasing computational complexity.

Psychosoziale Merkmale der Arbeit, Überforderungserleben und Depressivität

Die vorliegende Studie untersuchte die im Job-Demand-Control-Support-Modell und Effort-Reward-Imbalance-Modell beschriebenen Tätigkeitsmerkmale in Bezug auf Depressivität in einer Stichprobe von 265 Erwerbstätigen. Anhand konfirmatorischer Faktorenanalysen wurden Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede beider Modelle geprüft. Anschließend wurde die Bedeutung der nachweisbaren Tätigkeitsmerkmale für die Vorhersage von Depressivität getestet und untersucht, inwieweit die Effekte durch Überforderungserleben mediiert werden. Die Analysen zeigten, dass die Modelle sowohl gemeinsame (Arbeitsintensität bzw. berufliche Anforderungen) als auch distinkte Arbeitsmerkmale (Tätigkeitsspielraum, Arbeitsplatzsicherheit, beruflicher Status, soziale Anerkennung) erfassen. Hohe Arbeitsintensität, geringe Arbeitsplatzsicherheit und fehlende soziale Anerkennung standen in signifikantem Zusammenhang mit Depressivität. Anders als erwartet war der berufliche Status positiv mit Depressivität assoziiert, während für den Tätigkeitsspielraum keine signifikanten Effekte nachweisbar waren. Das Pfadmodell bestätigte sowohl direkte als auch durch Überforderungserleben vermittelte Zusammenhänge zwischen den Tätigkeitsmerkmalen und Depressivität (39 % Varianzaufklärung). Die Ergebnisse bieten eine Grundlage für die Identifizierung potenzieller Risikofaktoren für das Auftreten depressiver Symptome am Arbeitsplatz. This study examined the job characteristics in the Job-Demand-Control-Support Model and in the Effort-Reward Imbalance Model with regard to depression in a sample of 265 employees. First, we tested by means of confirmatory factor analysis similarities and differences of the two models. Secondly, job characteristics were introduced as predictors in a path model to test their relation with depression. Furthermore, we examined whether the associations were mediated by the experience of excessive demands. Our analyses showed the demand/effort component to be one common factor, while decision latitude and reward (subdivided into the three facets of job security, social recognition, and status-related reward) remained distinctive components. Employees with high job demands/effort, low job security, low social recognition, but high status-related rewards reported higher depression scores. Unexpectedly, status-related rewards were positively associated with depression, while we found no significant effects for decision latitude. The path models confirmed direct as well as mediation effects (through experienced excessive demands) between job characteristics and depression (39 % explained variance in depression). Our results could be useful to identify possible job-related risk factors for depression.

Sex timmars arbetsdag –ett modigt beslut : För att bli en attraktiv arbetsgivare

I studien undersöks hur arbetstagarnas arbetstillfredsställelse förändrats vis en arbetstidsförkortning. Arbetstidsförkortningens art är i form av en övergång ifrån åtta timmars arbetsdag till sex timmars arbetsdag med bibehållen heltidslön. Studien har genomförts vid ett mindre privat tjänsteföretag. Studiens syfte är att undersöka hur denna typ av arbetstidsförkortning förhåller sig till arbetstagarnas arbetstillfredsställelse och därmed öka förståelsen för de båda fenomenen. Det framkommer att arbetstagarnas arbetstillfredsställelse har förändrats sedan arbetstidsförkortningen. Gällande enskilda faktorer i arbetet har somliga faktorer minskat medan somliga faktorer ökat. I diskussionen framkommer att det föreligger en risk för ohälsa för arbetstagarna då det råder brist på stöd, minskad kontroll och ökade krav sedan arbetstidsförkortningen införts. Den föreliggande risken för ohälsa kan dock ses som acceptabel med tanke på den varierande arbetsbelastningen vilket innebär att arbetstagarna under perioder får tid för återhämtning. Trots omständigheterna råder en hög global arbetstillfredsställelse vilket i sin tur borde innebära att teorierna som brukats innehåller vissa brister då hänsyn till svängningar i arbetsbelastningen inte tagits. I resultatanalysen framkom tre teman vilka sågs relevanta för arbetstagarna och dess arbetstillfredsställelse. Dessa teman bestod av förändringar i relationer, förändringar i arbetet och förändringar i belöningar. Den teoretiska referensramen för studien innehåller förväntningsteorin, tvåfaktor teorin, kravkontroll- stödmodellen samt ansträngning- belöning- obalansmodellen. Datainsamling har skett med hjälp av fyra semistrukturerade intervjuer då respondenterna bestått av arbetstagare på det valda fallet som studerats. Studien är uppbyggt efter kvalitativ metod och har en fenomenologisk ansats. Studien har utformats i form av en fallstudie.

Enquadramento legal e estudo económico de parques eólicos

Portugal, no intuito de alcançar metas ambientais e económicas a que se propôs, e de reduzir a dependência das importações de energia, tem aumentado o investimento em eletricidade produzida a partir de energias renováveis (FER-E). Apesar do consenso em torno da sua utilização, as energias renováveis deparam-se com barreiras de várias ordens que dificultam a sua difusão no mercado. A atuação do Estado neste enquadramento passa por criar modelos de promoção da FER-E. A maioria dos países da União Europeia, incluindo Portugal, aplica as tarifas feed-in (FIT) como instrumento central de suporte à FER-E, inserido num modelo de apoio que contempla outros parâmetros de construção considerados críticos para o seu sucesso. No seguimento do estágio realizado na empresa Senvion Portugal a presente tese explora os programas e modelos de apoio às FER-E em Portugal, nomeadamente as que se referem à energia eólica. Bem como os trabalhos realizados com as equipas de O&M e a realização de um estudo de viabilidade económica da substituição de aerogeradores no parque eólico de Picos Verdes II.

Fully smart cities: Analysis of the city to Smart City transformation process

Ever since the birth of the Smart City paradigm, a wide variety of initiatives have sprung up involving this phenomenon: best practices, projects, pilot projects, transformation plans, models, standards, indicators, measuring systems, etc. The question to ask, applicable to any government official, city planner or researcher, is whether this effect is being felt in how cities are transforming, or whether, in contrast, it is not very realistic to speak of cities imbued with this level of intelligence. Many cities are eager to define themselves as smart, but the variety, complexity and scope of the projects needed for this transformation indicate that the change process is longer than it seems. If our goal is to carry out a comparative analysis of this progress among cities by using the number of projects executed and their scope as a reference for the transformation, we could find such a task inconsequential due to the huge differences and characteristics that define a city. We believe that the subject needs simplification (simpler, more practical models) and a new approach. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the smart city transformation process in Spain and provides a support model that helps us understand the changes and the speed at which they are being implemented. To this end we define a set of elements of change called "transformation factors" that group a city's smartness into one of three levels (Low/Medium/Fully) and more homogeneously identify the level of advancement of this process. © 2016 IEEE.