Young children's statistical reasoning : a tale of two contexts

This thesis explored the knowledge and reasoning of young children in solving novel statistical problems, and the influence of problem context and design on their solutions. It found that young children's statistical competencies are underestimated, and that problem design and context facilitated children's application of a wide range of knowledge and reasoning skills, none of which had been taught. A qualitative design-based research method, informed by the Models and Modeling perspective (Lesh & Doerr, 2003) underpinned the study. Data modelling activities incorporating picture story books were used to contextualise the problems. Children applied real-world understanding to problem solving, including attribute identification, categorisation and classification skills. Intuitive and metarepresentational knowledge together with inductive and probabilistic reasoning was used to make sense of data, and beginning awareness of statistical variation and informal inference was visible.

Legal Reasoning in Environmental Law : a Study of Structure, Form and Language

This book analyses the structure, form and language of a selected number of international and national legal instruments and reviews how an illustrative range of international and national judicial institutions have responded to the issues before them and the processes of legal reasoning engaged by them in reaching their decisions. This involves a very detailed discussion of these primary sources of international and national environmental law with a view to determining their jurisprudential architecture and the processes of reasoning expected of those responsible for implementing these architectural arrangements. This book is concerned not with the effectiveness or the quality of an environmental legal system but only with its jurisprudential characteristics and their associated processes of legal reasoning.

Manifestations of preoperational reasoning on similar programming tasks

In this research paper, we study a simple programming problem that only requires knowledge of variables and assignment statements, and yet we found that some early novice programmers had difficulty solving the problem. We also present data from think aloud studies which demonstrate the nature of those difficulties. We interpret our data within a neo-Piagetian framework which describes cognitive developmental stages through which students pass as they learn to program. We describe in detail think aloud sessions with novices who reason at the neo-Piagetian preoperational level. Those students exhibit two problems. First, they focus on very small parts of the code and lose sight of the "big picture". Second, they are prone to focus on superficial aspects of the task that are not functionally central to the solution. It is not until the transition into the concrete operational stage that decentration of focus occurs, and they have the cognitive ability to reason about abstract quantities that are conserved, and are equipped to adapt skills to closely related tasks. Our results, and the neo-Piagetian framework on which they are based, suggest that changes are necessary in teaching practice to better support novices who have not reached the concrete operational stage.

Processing biases towards gain-framed messages may lead reward sensitive individuals to adopt safer driving behaviours

Using Gray and McNaughton’s revised RST, this study investigated the extent to which the Behavioural Approach System (BAS) and the Fight-Flight-Freeze System (FFFS) influence the processing of gain-framed and loss-framed road safety messages and subsequent message acceptance. It was predicted that stronger BAS sensitivity and FFFS sensitivity would be associated with greater processing and acceptance of the gain-framed messages and loss-framed messages, respectively. Young drivers (N = 80, aged 17–25 years) viewed one of four road safety messages and completed a lexical decision task to assess message processing. Both self-report (e.g., Corr-Cooper RST-PQ) and behavioural measures (i.e., CARROT and Q-Task) were used to assess BAS and FFFS traits. Message acceptance was measured via self-report ratings of message effectiveness, behavioural intentions, attitudes and subsequent driving behaviour. The results are discussed in the context of the effect that differences in reward and punishment sensitivities may have on message processing and message acceptance.

The IKBALS project: multi-modal reasoning in legal knowledge based systems

In attempting to build intelligent litigation support tools, we have moved beyond first generation, production rule legal expert systems. Our work integrates rule based and case based reasoning with intelligent information retrieval. When using the case based reasoning methodology, or in our case the specialisation of case based retrieval, we need to be aware of how to retrieve relevant experience. Our research, in the legal domain, specifies an approach to the retrieval problem which relies heavily on an extended object oriented/rule based system architecture that is supplemented with causal background information. We use a distributed agent architecture to help support the reasoning process of lawyers. Our approach to integrating rule based reasoning, case based reasoning and case based retrieval is contrasted to the CABARET and PROLEXS architectures which rely on a centralised blackboard architecture. We discuss in detail how our various cooperating agents interact, and provide examples of the system at work. The IKBALS system uses a specialised induction algorithm to induce rules from cases. These rules are then used as indices during the case based retrieval process. Because we aim to build legal support tools which can be modified to suit various domains rather than single purpose legal expert systems, we focus on principles behind developing legal knowledge based systems. The original domain chosen was theAccident Compensation Act 1989 (Victoria, Australia), which relates to the provision of benefits for employees injured at work. For various reasons, which are indicated in the paper, we changed our domain to that ofCredit Act 1984 (Victoria, Australia). This Act regulates the provision of loans by financial institutions. The rule based part of our system which provides advice on the Credit Act has been commercially developed in conjunction with a legal firm. We indicate how this work has lead to the development of a methodology for constructing rule based legal knowledge based systems. We explain the process of integrating this existing commercial rule based system with the case base reasoning and retrieval architecture.

Reasoning paradigms in legal decision support systems

In this paper we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of a range of artificial intelligence approaches used in legal domains. Symbolic reasoning systems which rely on deductive, inductive and analogical reasoning are described and reviewed. The role of statistical reasoning in law is examined, and the use of neural networks analysed. There is discussion of architectures for, and examples of, systems which combine a number of these reasoning strategies. We conclude that to build intelligent legal decision support systems requires a range of reasoning strategies.

Beyond rule based reasoning - the meaning and use of cases

Commercial legal expert systems are invariably rule based. Such systems are poor at dealing with open texture and the argumentation inherent in law. To overcome these problems we suggest supplementing rule based legal expert systems with case based reasoning or neural networks. Both case based reasoners and neural networks use cases-but in very different ways. We discuss these differences at length. In particular we examine the role of explanation in existing expert systems methodologies. Because neural networks provide poor explanation facilities, we consider the use of Toulmin argument structures to support explanation (S. Toulmin, 1958). We illustrate our ideas with regard to a number of systems built by the authors

Deductive, inductive and analogical reasoning in legal decision support systems

In this paper we provide an overview of a number of fundamental reasoning formalisms in artificial intelligence which can and have been used in modelling legal reasoning. We describe deduction, induction and analogical reasoning formalisms, and show how they can be used separately to model legal reasoning. We argue that these formalisms can be used together to model legal reasoning more accurately, and describe a number of attempts to integrate the approaches.

Non-monotonic Reasoning and the Reversibility of Belief Change

Traditional approaches to nonmonotonic reasoning fail to satisfy a number of plausible axioms for belief revision and suffer from conceptual difficulties as well. Recent work on ranked preferential models (RPMs) promises to overcome some of these difficulties. Here we show that RPMs are not adequate to handle iterated belief change. Specifically, we show that RPMs do not always allow for the reversibility of belief change. This result indicates the need for numerical strengths of belief.

Qualitative spatial reasoning about directions in a corridor containing a single turn

An experiment was conducted to investigate the process of reasoning about directions in an egocentric space. Each participant walked through a corridor containing an angular turn ranging in size from 0° to 90°, in 15° increments. A direction was given to participants at the entrance of the corridor and they were asked to answer this direction at the end of this corridor. Considering the fact that participants had to reason the direction in the featureless corridor, two hypotheses were proposed: (i) reasoning about directions falls into qualitative reasoning by using a small number of coarse angular categories (four 90° categories or eight 45° categories: 90° categories consist of front, back, left, right; 45° categories consist of 90° categories and the four intermediates) that reference axes generate; (ii) reasoning about directions would be done by recalling the rotation angle from the traveling direction to the direction that participants tried to answer. In addition, the configuration of reference axes that participants employed was examined. Both hypotheses were supported, and the data designated that reference axes consisted of eight directions: a pair of orthogonal axes and diagonals.

The Number Crunch game : a simple vehicle for building algebraic reasoning skills

A newspaper numbers game based on simple arithmetic relationships is discussed. Its potential to give students of elementary algebra practice in semi-ad hoc reasoning and to build general arithmetic reasoning skills is explored.

Measuring the biases in self-reported disability status : Evidence from aggregate data

Self-reported health status measures are generally used to analyse Social Security Disability Insurance's (SSDI) application and award decisions as well as the relationship between its generosity and labour force participation. Due to endogeneity and measurement error, the use of self-reported health and disability indicators as explanatory variables in economic models is problematic. We employ county-level aggregate data, instrumental variables and spatial econometric techniques to analyse the determinants of variation in SSDI rates and explicitly account for the endogeneity and measurement error of the self-reported disability measure. Two surprising results are found. First, it is shown that measurement error is the dominating source of the bias and that the main source of measurement error is sampling error. Second, results suggest that there may be synergies for applying for SSDI when the disabled population is larger. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.