The Putin doctrine: The formation of a conceptual framework for Russian dominance in the post-Soviet area. OSW Commentary No. 131, 28.03.2014

The statements made in recent weeks by Russian officials, and especially President Vladimir Putin, in connection with Moscow’s policy towards Ukraine, may suggest that the emergence of a certain doctrine of Russian foreign and security policy is at hand, especially in relation to the post-Soviet area. Most of the arguments at the core of this doctrine are not new, but recently they have been formulated more openly and in more radical terms. Those arguments concern the role of Russia as the defender of Russian-speaking communities abroad and the guarantor of their rights, as well as specifically understood good neighbourly relations (meaning in fact limited sovereignty) as a precondition that must be met in order for Moscow to recognise the independence and territorial integrity of post-Soviet states. However, the new doctrine also includes arguments which have not been raised before, or have hitherto only been formulated on rare occasions, and which may indicate the future evolution of Russia’s policy. Specifically, this refers to Russia’s use of extralegal categories, such as national interest, truth and justice, to justify its policy, and its recognition of military force as a legitimate instrument to defend its compatriots abroad. This doctrine is effectively an outline of the conceptual foundation for Russian dominance in the post-Soviet area. It offers a justification for the efforts to restore the unity of the ‘Russian nation’ (or more broadly, the Russian-speaking community), within a bloc pursuing close integration (the Eurasian Economic Union), or even within a single state encompassing at least parts of that area. As such, it poses a challenge for the West, which Moscow sees as the main opponent of Russia’s plans to build a new order in Europe (Eurasia) that would undermine the post-Cold War order.

Age model of sediment core V20-120 (Table 2)

Time series analyses of atmospheric and oceanic variables in a late Pleistocene record from the northwest Pacific show the complex relationship of the response of various segments of the climate system to changes in the earth's orbit. Most variance spectra of time series from this subarctic record contain frequency peaks with periods corresponding to at least one of the major orbital components of eccentricity, obliquity, or precession. Although the radiolarian faunal (water mass) assemblages have prominent spectral peaks with 41,000-year periods which are coherent with obliquity at this frequency, only the Transitional faunal assemblage contains variance focused at a frequency corresponding to the 100,000-year period of eccentricity. Three of these faunal time series also show variance concentrated at a frequency with a 20,000-year period. These three time series are not coherent at a 20,000-year frequency with either of the dominant spectral peaks of precession. They are coherent, however, with variations in the second harmonic of the obliquity cycle. Changes in obliquity apparently affect siliceous faunal abundances in the northwest Pacific region of this high-latitude site more than variations in eccentricity or precession. Maxima in the time series of quartz abundance occur during low values of eccentricity and high glacial ice volume. Because atmospheric winds serve as the major source of supply of quartz to the sediments at this site, these high quartz values reflect increased aridity at the source region. Except for short periods during interglacials, the characteristics of the surface waters in this region of the subarctic Pacific during much of the last 460,000 years were similar to those which exist today in the Sea of Okhotsk. The spectrum of winter sea surface temperature estimates, derived from siliceous microfaunal abundances, contains dominant frequency peaks at periods of 100,000, 41,000, and 23,000 years which are coherent with eccentricity, obliquity, and precession, respectively. Based upon the relationship of the Subarctic Front with the dominance of specific faunal asemblages, the front was positioned south of its present-day location throughout much of the late Pleistocene.

Geochemistry, grain sizes and radiocarbon age of sediment core Lz1005 from Amery Oasis, East Antarctica

The clay mineralogical composition of a 552 cm long sediment core from Lake Terrasovoje in Amery Oasis, East Antarctica, was analysed and compared with that in surface sediments from other locations in the vicinity. The lower part of the sediment core is formed by sub- and proglacial sediments with a dominance of smectite and illite, and lower amounts of kaolinite and chlorite. The upper part of the core is deposited after 12 500 cal yr bp and mainly composed of illite and kaolinite, with low amounts of smectite and chlorite, such as found in samples from rock outcrops and covering sediments throughout Amery Oasis. The clay composition in the lower section of core Lz1005 suggest that the basin of Lake Terrasovoje was filled by a 150-200 m thickened Nemesis Glacier prior to 12 500 cal yr bp rather than by local ice caps.

Petrographical classification and mineral assemblage of basement clasts from the Quaternary and Miocene sections of sediment core CRP-1 (Table 1)

Petrographical and mineral chemistry data are described for the mist representative basement lithologies occurring as clasts (pebble grain-size class) from the CRP-1 drillhole. Most pebbles consits of either undeformed or foliated biotite with or without hornblende monzogranites. Other rock types include biotite with or without garnet syenogranitr, biotite-hornblende granodiorite, tonalite, monzogranitic porphyries, haplogranite, quartz-monzonite (restricted to the Quaternary section), Ca-silicate rocks and biotite amphibolite (restricted to the Miocene strata). The common and ubiquitous occurence of biotite with or without hornblende monzogranite pebbles, in both the Quaternary and Miocene sections, apparently mirrors the dominance of these rock types in the granitoid assemblages which are presently exposed in the upper Precambrian-lower Paleozoic basement of the south Victoria Land. The other CRP-1 pebble lithologies show petrographical features which consitently support a dominant supply from areas of the Transantarctic Mountains located to the west and south-west of the CRP-1 site, and they thus furthercorroborate a model of local provenance for the supply of basement clasts to the CRP-1 sedimentary strata.

Table 1. Radiocarbon dates from TPC522 and box core surface samples from BC521 and BC523

Recent intensification of wind-driven upwelling of warm upper circumpolar deep water (UCDW) has been linked to accelerated melting of West Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers. To better assess the long term relationship between UCDWupwelling and the stability of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet, we present a multi-proxy reconstruction of surface and bottom water conditions in Marguerite Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), through the Holocene. A combination of sedimentological, diatom and foraminiferal records are, for the first time, presented together to infer a decline in UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay through the early to mid Holocene and the dominance of cyclic forcing in the late Holocene. Extensive glacial melt, limited sea ice and enhanced primary productivity between 9.7 and 7.0 ka BP is considered to be most consistent with persistent incursions of UCDW through Marguerite Trough. From 7.0 ka BP sea ice seasons increased and productivity decreased, suggesting that UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay waned, coincident with the equatorward migration of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW). UCDW influence continued through the mid Holocene, and by 4.2 ka BP lengthy sea ice seasons persisted within Marguerite Bay. Intermittent melting and reforming of this sea ice within the late Holocene may be indicative of episodic incursions of UCDW into Marguerite Bay during this period. The cyclical changes in the oceanography within Marguerite Bay during the late Holocene is consistent with enhanced sensitively to ENSO forcing as opposed to the SWW-forcing that appears to have dominated the early to mid Holocene. Current measurements of the oceanography of the WAP continental shelf suggest that the system has now returned to the early Holocene-like oceanographic configuration reported here, which in both cases has been associated with rapid deglaciation.

Drying processess in the United Kingdom:assessment of industrial energy utilisation and efficiency of drying systems and the modelling of drying characters using neural networks (BL)

Drying is an important unit operation in process industry. Results have suggested that the energy used for drying has increased from 12% in 1978 to 18% of the total energy used in 1990. A literature survey of previous studies regarding overall drying energy consumption has demonstrated that there is little continuity of methods and energy trends could not be established. In the ceramics, timber and paper industrial sectors specific energy consumption and energy trends have been investigated by auditing drying equipment. Ceramic products examined have included tableware, tiles, sanitaryware, electrical ceramics, plasterboard, refractories, bricks and abrasives. Data from industry has shown that drying energy has not varied significantly in the ceramics sector over the last decade, representing about 31% of the total energy consumed. Information from the timber industry has established that radical changes have occurred over the last 20 years, both in terms of equipment and energy utilisation. The energy efficiency of hardwood drying has improved by 15% since the 1970s, although no significant savings have been realised for softwood. A survey estimating the energy efficiency and operating characteristics of 192 paper dryer sections has been conducted. Drying energy was found to increase to nearly 60% of the total energy used in the early 1980s, but has fallen over the last decade, representing 23% of the total in 1993. These results have demonstrated that effective energy saving measures, such as improved pressing and heat recovery, have been successfully implemented since the 1970s. Artificial neural networks have successfully been applied to model process characteristics of microwave and convective drying of paper coated gypsum cove. Parameters modelled have included product moisture loss, core gypsum temperature and quality factors relating to paper burning and bubbling defects. Evaluation of thermal and dielectric properties have highlighted gypsum's heat sensitive characteristics in convective and electromagnetic regimes. Modelling experimental data has shown that the networks were capable of simulating drying process characteristics to a high degree of accuracy. Product weight and temperature were predicted to within 0.5% and 5C of the target data respectively. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the underlying properties of the data could be predicted through a high level of input noise.

Pollen and dinoflagellate cyst counts on sediment core M72/5_628-1 (MD72/5-25-GC1) from the Black Sea

High-resolution pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from sediment core M72/5-25-GC1 were used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in northern Anatolia and surface conditions of the Black Sea between 64 and 20 ka BP. During this period, the dominance of Artemisia in the pollen record indicates a steppe landscape and arid climate conditions. However, the concomitant presence of temperate arboreal pollen suggests the existence of glacial refugia in northern Anatolia. Long-term glacial vegetation dynamics reveal two major arid phases ~64-55 and 40-32 ka BP, and two major humid phases ~54-45 and 28-20 ka BP, correlating with higher and lower summer insolation, respectively. Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles are clearly indicated by the 25-GC1 pollen record. Greenland interstadials are characterized by a marked increase in temperate tree pollen, indicating a spread of forests due to warm/wet conditions in northern Anatolia, whereas Greenland stadials reveal cold and arid conditions as indicated by spread of xerophytic biomes. There is evidence for a phase lag of ~500 to 1500 yr between initial warming and forest expansion, possibly due to successive changes in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic sector. The dominance of Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis in the dinocyst record indicates brackish Black Sea conditions during the entire glacial period. The decrease of marine indicators (marine dinocysts, acritarchs) at ~54 ka BP and increase of freshwater algae (Pediastrum, Botryococcus) from 32 to 25 ka BP reveals freshening of the Black Sea surface water. This freshening is possibly related to humid phases in the region, to connection between Caspian Sea and Black Sea, to seasonal freshening by floating ice, and/or to closer position of river mouths due to low sea level. In the southern Black Sea, Greenland interstadials are clearly indicated by high dinocyst concentrations and calcium carbonate content, as a result of an increase in primary productivity. Heinrich events show a similar impact on the environment in the northern Anatolia/Black Sea region as Greenland stadials.

Estimation of sea surface temperature from sediment core PS1768-8

The quantitative diatom analysis of 218 surface sediment samples recovered in the Atlantic and western Indian sector of the Southern Ocean is used to define a base of reference data for paleotemperature estimations from diatom assemblages using the Imbrie and Kipp transfer function method. The criteria which justify the exclusion of samples and species out of the raw data set in order to define a reference database are outlined and discussed. Sensitivity tests with eight data sets were achieved evaluating the effects of overall dominance of single species, different methods of species abundance ranking, and no-analog conditions (e.g., Eucampia Antarctica) on the estimated paleotemperatures. The defined transfer functions were applied on a sediment core from the northern Antarctic zone. Overall dominance of Fragilariopsis kerguelensis in the diatom assemblages resulted in a close affinity between paleotemperature curve and relative abundance pattern of this species downcore. Logarithmic conversion of counting data applied with other ranking methods in order to compensate the dominance of F. kerguelensis revealed the best statistical results. A reliable diatom transfer function for future paleotemperature estimations is presented.

Radiocarbon ages and pollen record of a sediment core from Lake Lyadhej-To

An 1180-cm long core recovered from Lake Lyadhej-To (68°15'N, 65°45'E, 150 m a.s.l.) at the NW rim of the Polar Urals Mountains reflects the Holocene environmental history from ca. 11,000 cal. yr BP. Pollen assemblages from the diamicton (ca. 11,000-10,700 cal. yr BP) are dominated by Pre-Quaternary spores and redeposited Pinaceae pollen, pointing to a high terrestrial input. Turbid and nutrient-poor conditions existed in the lake ca. 10,700-10,550 cal. yr BP. The chironomid-inferred reconstructions suggest that mean July temperature increased rapidly from 10.0 to 11.8 °C during this period. Sparse, treeless vegetation dominated on the disturbed and denuded soils in the catchment area. A distinct dominance of planktonic diatoms ca. 10,500-8800 cal. yr BP points to the lowest lake-ice coverage, the longest growing season and the highest bioproductivity during the lake history. Birch forest with some shrub alder grew around the lake reflecting the warmest climate conditions during the Holocene. Mean July temperature was likely 11-13 °C and annual precipitation-400-500 mm. The period ca. 8800-5500 cal. yr BP is characterized by a gradual deterioration of environmental conditions in the lake and lake catchment. The pollen- and chironomid-inferred temperatures reflect a warm period (ca. 6500-6000 cal. BP) with a mean July temperature at least 1-2 °C higher than today. Birch forests disappeared from the lake vicinity after 6000 cal. yr BP. The vegetation in the Lyadhej-To region became similar to the modern one. Shrub (Betula nana, Salix) and herb tundra have dominated the lake catchment since ca. 5500 cal. yr BP. All proxies suggest rather harsh environmental conditions. Diatom assemblages reflect relatively short growing seasons and a longer persistence of lake-ice ca. 5500-2500 cal. yr BP. Pollen-based climate reconstructions suggest significant cooling between ca. 5500 and 3500 cal. yr BP with a mean July temperature 8-10 °C and annual precipitation-300-400 mm. The bioproductivity in the lake remained low after 2500 cal. yr BP, but biogeochemical proxies reflect a higher terrestrial influx. Changes in the diatom content may indicate warmer water temperatures and a reduced ice cover on the lake. However, chironomid-based reconstructions reflect a period with minimal temperatures during the lake history.

Pollen profile and age determination for sediment core M72/5_619-1 (22-GC3)

Sediments from the Black Sea, a region historically dominated by forests and steppe landscapes, are a valuable source of detailed information on the changes in regional terrestrial and aquatic environments at decadal to millennial scales. Here we present multi-proxy environmental records (pollen, dinoflagellate cysts, Ca, Ti and oxygen isotope data) from the uppermost 305 cm of the core 22-GC3 (42°13.53' N, 36°29.55' E) collected from a water depth of 838 m in the southern part of the Black Sea in 2007. The records span the last ~ 18 kyr (all ages are given in cal kyr BP). The pollen data reveal the dominance of the Artemisia-steppe in the region, suggesting rather dry/cold environments ~ 18-14.5 kyr BP. Warming/humidity increase during melt-water pulses (~ 16.1-14.5 kyr BP), indicated by d18O records from the 22-GC3 core sediment and from the Sofular Cave stalagmite, is expressed in more negative d13C values from the Sofular Cave, usually interpreted as the spreading of C3 plants. The records representing the interstadial complex (~ 14.5-12.9 kyr BP) show an increase in temperature and moisture, indicated by forest development, increased primary productivity and reduced surface run-off, whereas the switch from primary terrigenous to primary authigenic Ca origin occurs ~ 500 yr later. The Younger Dryas cooling is clearly demonstrated by more negative d13C values from the Sofular Cave and a reduction of pines. The early Holocene (11.7-8.5 kyr BP) interval reveals relatively dry conditions compared to the mostly moist and warm middle Holocene (8.5-5 kyr BP), which is characterized by the establishment of the species-rich warm mixed and temperate deciduous forests in the low elevation belt, temperate deciduous beech-hornbeam forests in the middle and cool conifer forest in upper mountain belt. The border between the early and middle Holocene in the vegetation records coincides with the opening of the Mediterranean corridor at ~ 8.3 kyr BP, as indicated by a marked change in the dinocyst assemblages and in the sediment lithology. Changes in the pollen assemblages indicate a reduction in forest cover after ~ 5 kyr BP, which was likely caused by increased anthropogenic pressure on the regional vegetation.

Dinocyst-derived sea-surface characteristics, palynomorph abundances, ice-rafted debris, and planktonic foraminifera abundances and d18O of the 35-41 ka BP interval of core MD99-2285

The last glacial millennial climatic events (i.e. Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events) constitute outstanding case studies of coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere interactions. Here, we investigate the evolution of sea-surface and subsurface conditions, in terms of temperature, salinity and sea ice cover, at very high-resolution (mean resolution between 55 and 155 years depending on proxies) during the 35-41 ka cal BP interval covering three Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and including Heinrich event 4, in a new unpublished marine record, i.e. the MD99-2285 core (62.69°N; -3.57s°E). We use a large panel of complementary tools, which notably includes dinocyst-derived sea-ice cover duration quantifications. The high temporal resolution and multiproxy approach of this work allows us to identify the sequence of processes and to assess ocean-cryosphere interactions occurring during these periodic ice-sheet collapse events. Our results evidence a paradoxical hydrological scheme where (i) Greenland interstadials are marked by a homogeneous and cold upper water column, with intensive winter sea ice formation and summer sea ice melting, and (ii) Greenland and Heinrich stadials are characterized by a very warm and low saline surface layer with iceberg calving and reduced sea ice formation, separated by a strong halocline from a less warm and saltier subsurface layer. Our work also suggests that this stadial surface/subsurface warming started before massive iceberg release, in relation with warm Atlantic water advection. These findings thus support the theory that upper ocean warming might have triggered European ice-sheet destabilization. Besides, previous paleoceanographic studies conducted along the Atlantic inflow pathways close to the edge of European ice-sheets suggest that such a feature might have occurred in this whole area. Nonetheless, additional high resolution paleoreconstructions are required to confirm such a regional scheme.

10Be and barium concentrations of sediment core GeoB1008-3

Particle reactive elements are scavenged to a higher degree at ocean margins than in the open ocean due to higher fluxes of biogenic and terrigenous particles. In order to determine the influence of these processes on the depositional fluxes of 10Be and barium we have performed high-resolution measurements on sediment core GeoB1008-3 from the Congo Fan. Because the core is dominated by terrigenous matter supplied by the Congo River, it has a high average mass accumulation rate of 6.5 cm/kyr. Biogenic 10Be and Ba concentrations were calculated from total concentrations by subtracting the terrigenous components of10Be and Ba, which are assumed to be proportional to the flux of Al2O3. The mean Ba/Al weight ratio of the terrigenous component was determined to be 0.0045. The unusualy high terrigenous 10Be concentrations of 9.1 * 10**9 atoms/g Al2O3 are either due to input of particles with high10Be content by the Congo River or due to scavenging of oceanic 10Be by riverine particles. The maxima of biogenic 10Be and Ba concentrations coincide with maxima of the paleoproductivity rates. Time series analysis of the 10Be and of Ba concentration profiles reveals a strong dominance of the precessional period of 24 kyr, which also controls the rates of paleoproductivity in this core. During the maxima of productivity the flux of biogenic Ba is enhanced to a larger extent than that of biogenic 10Be. Applying a model for coastal scavenging, we ascribe the observed higher sensitivity of Ba to biogenic particle fluxes to the fact that the ocean residence time of Ba is approximately 10 times longer than that of 10Be.