Prediction of multiple infections after severe burn trauma: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive models for early triage of burn patients based on hypersusceptibility to repeated infections. BACKGROUND: Infection remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity after severe trauma, demanding new strategies to combat infections. Models for infection prediction are lacking. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 459 burn patients (≥16 years old) with 20% or more total body surface area burns recruited from 6 US burn centers. We compared blood transcriptomes with a 180-hour cutoff on the injury-to-transcriptome interval of 47 patients (≤1 infection episode) to those of 66 hypersusceptible patients [multiple (≥2) infection episodes (MIE)]. We used LASSO regression to select biomarkers and multivariate logistic regression to built models, accuracy of which were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Three predictive models were developed using covariates of (1) clinical characteristics; (2) expression profiles of 14 genomic probes; (3) combining (1) and (2). The genomic and clinical models were highly predictive of MIE status [AUROCGenomic = 0.946 (95% CI: 0.906-0.986); AUROCClinical = 0.864 (CI: 0.794-0.933); AUROCGenomic/AUROCClinical P = 0.044]. Combined model has an increased AUROCCombined of 0.967 (CI: 0.940-0.993) compared with the individual models (AUROCCombined/AUROCClinical P = 0.0069). Hypersusceptible patients show early alterations in immune-related signaling pathways, epigenetic modulation, and chromatin remodeling. CONCLUSIONS: Early triage of burn patients more susceptible to infections can be made using clinical characteristics and/or genomic signatures. Genomic signature suggests new insights into the pathophysiology of hypersusceptibility to infection may lead to novel potential therapeutic or prophylactic targets.

Impact of early valve surgery on outcome of Staphylococcus aureus prosthetic valve infective endocarditis: analysis in the International Collaboration of Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of early valve surgery (EVS) on the outcome of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) prosthetic valve infective endocarditis (PVIE) is unresolved. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between EVS, performed within the first 60 days of hospitalization, and outcome of SA PVIE within the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study. METHODS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006. Cox proportional hazards modeling that included surgery as a time-dependent covariate and propensity adjustment for likelihood to receive cardiac surgery was used to evaluate the impact of EVS and 1-year all-cause mortality on patients with definite left-sided S. aureus PVIE and no history of injection drug use. RESULTS: EVS was performed in 74 of the 168 (44.3%) patients. One-year mortality was significantly higher among patients with S. aureus PVIE than in patients with non-S. aureus PVIE (48.2% vs 32.9%; P = .003). Staphylococcus aureus PVIE patients who underwent EVS had a significantly lower 1-year mortality rate (33.8% vs 59.1%; P = .001). In multivariate, propensity-adjusted models, EVS was not associated with 1-year mortality (risk ratio, 0.67 [95% confidence interval, .39-1.15]; P = .15). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective, multinational cohort of patients with S. aureus PVIE, EVS was not associated with reduced 1-year mortality. The decision to pursue EVS should be individualized for each patient, based upon infection-specific characteristics rather than solely upon the microbiology of the infection causing PVIE.

Life situations and the care burden for stroke pa­tients and their informal caregivers in a prospective cohort study

Background. The purpose of this study was to analyse whether the parallel life situation between stroke patients and their informal caregivers (dyads) shown in cross-sectional studies prevails also in a longitudinal perspective. Methods. A total of 377 Swedish stroke patients, aged ‡65 years, and their 268 informal caregivers were followed from hospital admission and one year on. Analyses were based on patient interviews, functional ability (MMSE) score, Nottingham Health Profile (NHP) score, Hospital Anxiety and Depression (HAD) score, self-rated health score, and the Gothenburg Quality of Life (GQL) activity score. Similar information was obtained by postal questionnaires from informal caregivers, also including information on the nature and amount of assistance provided and on Caregiver Burden (CB) score. Results. Before index admission informal caregivers provided care on average 5 h per week and after discharge 11 h per week (P < 0.0001). Support volume was associated with patient sex (more for men), low patient’s functional ability, low received municipal social service support, closeness of patient–caregiver relation, and short distance to patient’s home. Significant positive associations within the dyads were found for HAD anxiety score (P < 0.0001), total NHP score (P < 0.0001), and GQL activity score (P < 0.0001) after adjustment for patient’s age, sex, functional ability, and patient–caregiver relationship. CB score increased with amount of informal caregiver support, patient’s age, and with low functional ability and low amount of municipal social service support. All these associations were constant across time. Conclusions. There was an association within the dyads regarding anxiety score, NHP score, and activity score. CB score was generally high.

Increase in severity of molar-incisor hypomineralization and its relationship with the colour of enamel opacity: a prospective cohort study

Background. Predicting risk of posteruptive enamel breakdown (PEB) of molar-incisor hypomineralization (MIH) opacity is a difficult but important clinical task. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate these aspects through longitudinal studies.Objective. The aim of this longitudinal study was to analyse the relationship between colours of MIH opacity of children aged 6-12 (baseline) and other clinical and demographic variables involved in the increase in severity of MIH.Materials and methods. A blinded prospective 18-month follow-up was conducted with 147 individuals presenting mild MIH. Tooth-based incidence of increase in severity of MIH (PEB or atypical restorations) was used as dependent measurement. Enamel opacities were recorded according to colour shades of white, yellow and brown, allowing assessment of susceptibility to structural loss over time, according to colour of MIH opacity. Poisson regression models were used to adjust the results for demographic and clinical variables.Results. Brown and yellow MIH opacities were at higher risk for PEB and atypical restorations than those of white ones, even after adjustment for clinical and demographic variables.Conclusion. Teeth presenting mild MIH severity associated with yellow and brown enamel opacities were at high risk for increase in severity of MIH than lighter ones. This result could help clinicians determine a risk-based treatment for children with MIH.

Response to Treatment in a Prospective Cohort of Patients with Large Ulcerated Lesions Suspected to Be Buruli Ulcer (Mycobacterium ulcerans Disease)

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) advises treatment of Mycobacterium ulcerans disease, also called Buruli ulcer'' (BU), with a combination of the antibiotics rifampicin and streptomycin (R+S), whether followed by surgery or not. In endemic areas, a clinical case definition is recommended. We evaluated the effectiveness of this strategy in a series of patients with large ulcers of >= 10 cm in longest diameter in a rural health zone of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).Methods: A cohort of 92 patients with large ulcerated lesions suspected to be BU was enrolled between October 2006 and September 2007 and treated according to WHO recommendations. The following microbiologic data were obtained: Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) stained smear, culture and PCR. Histopathology was performed on a sub-sample. Directly observed treatment with R+S was administered daily for 12 weeks and surgery was performed after 4 weeks. Patients were followed up for two years after treatment.Findings: Out of 92 treated patients, 61 tested positive for M. ulcerans by PCR. PCR negative patients had better clinical improvement than PCR positive patients after 4 weeks of antibiotics (54.8% versus 14.8%). For PCR positive patients, the outcome after 4 weeks of antibiotic treatment was related to the ZN positivity at the start. Deterioration of the ulcers was observed in 87.8% (36/41) of the ZN positive and in 12.2% (5/41) of the ZN negative patients. Deterioration due to paradoxical reaction seemed unlikely. After surgery and an additional 8 weeks of antibiotics, 98.4% of PCR positive patients and 83.3% of PCR negative patients were considered cured. The overall recurrence rate was very low (1.1%).Interpretation: Positive predictive value of the WHO clinical case definition was low. Low relapse rate confirms the efficacy of antibiotics. However, the need for and the best time for surgery for large Buruli ulcers requires clarification. We recommend confirmation by ZN stain at the rural health centers, since surgical intervention without delay may be necessary on the ZN positive cases to avoid progression of the disease. PCR negative patients were most likely not BU cases. Correct diagnosis and specific management of these non-BU ulcers cases are urgently needed.

HIV-1 tropism and CD4 T lymphocyte recovery in a prospective cohort of patients initiating HAART in Ribeirao Preto, Brazil

While human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 chemokine co-receptors 5 tropism and the GWGR motif in the envelope third variable region (V3 loop) have been associated with a slower disease progression, their influence on antiretroviral response remains unclear. The impact of baseline V3 characteristics on treatment response was evaluated in a randomised, double blind, prospective cohort study with patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy with lopinavir or efavirenz plus azithothymidine/3TC (1:1) over 48 weeks. Similar virological and immunological responses were observed for both treatment regimens. The 43 individuals had a mean baseline CD4 T cell count of 119 cells/mm(3) [standard deviation (SD) = 99] and a mean viral load of 5.09 log(10) copies/mL (SD = 0.49). The GWGR motif was not associated with a CD4 T cell response, but predicted R5 tropism by the geno2pheno([clinical20%]) algorithm correlated with higher CD4 T cell levels at all monitoring points (p < 0.05). Moreover, higher false-positive rates (FPR) values from this analysis revealed a strong correlation with CD4 T cell recovery (p < 0.0001). Transmitted drug resistance mutations, documented in 3/41 (7.3%) cases, were unrelated to the assigned antiretroviral regimen and had no impact on patient outcomes. In conclusion, naive HIV-1 R5 infected patients exhibited higher CD4 T cell counts at baseline; this difference was sustained throughout therapy. The geno2pheno[clinical] option FPR positively correlated with CD4 T cell gain and may be useful in predicting CD4 T cell recovery.

Incidence and Predictors of Adverse Drug Reactions Caused by Drug-Drug Interactions in Elderly Outpatients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the incidence of drug-drug interactions (DDIs) related to adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in elderly outpatients who attended public primary healthcare units in a southeastern region of Brazil. The secondary objective was to investigate the possible predictors of DDI-related ADRs. Methods. A prospective cohort study was conducted between November 1, 2010, and November 31, 2011, in the primary public healthcare system in the Ourinhos micro-region in Brazil. Patients who were at least 60 years old, with at least one potential DDI, were eligible for inclusion in the study. Eligible patients were assessed by clinical pharmacists for DDI-related ADRs for 4 months. The causality of DDI-related ADRs was assessed independently by four clinicians using three decisional algorithms. The incidence of DDI-related ADRs during the study period was calculated. Logistic regression analysis was used to study DDI-related ADR predictors. Results. A total of 433 patients completed the study. The incidence of DDI-related ADRs was 6.5%. A multivariate analysis indicated that the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) rose from 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.75-1.12, p = 0.06) in patients aged 65-69 years to 4.40 (95% CI = 3.00-6.12, p < 0.01) in patients aged 80 years or older. Patients who presented two to three diagnosed diseases presented lower adjusted ORs (OR = 0.93 [95% CI = 0.68-1.18, p = 0.08]) than patients who presented six or more diseases (OR = 1.12 [95% CI = 1.02-2.01, p < 0.01]). Elderly patients who took five or more drugs had a significantly higher risk of DDI-related ADRs (OR = 2.72 [95% CI = 1.92-3.12, p < 0.01]) than patients who took three to four drugs (OR = 0.93 [95% CI = 0.74-1.11, p = 0.06]). No significant difference was found with regard to sex (OR = 1.08 [95% CI 0.48-2.02, p = 0.44]). Conclusion. The incidence of DDI-related ADRs in elderly outpatients was significant, and most of the events presented important clinical consequences. Because clinicians still have difficulty managing this problem, highlighting the factors that increase the risk of DDI-related ADRs is essential. Polypharmacy was found to be a significant predictor of DDI-related ADRs in our sample.

Adverse drug reactions caused by drug-drug interactions in elderly outpatients: a prospective cohort study

Although the prevalence of drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in elderly outpatients is high, many potential DDIs do not have any actual clinical effect, and data on the occurrence of DDI-related adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in elderly outpatients are scarce. This study aimed to determine the incidence and characteristics of DDI-related ADRs among elderly outpatients as well as the factors associated with these reactions. A prospective cohort study was conducted between 1 November 2010 and 31 November 2011 in the primary public health system of the Ourinhos micro-region, Brazil. Patients aged a parts per thousand yen60 years with at least one potential DDI were eligible for inclusion. Causality, severity, and preventability of the DDI-related ADRs were assessed independently by four clinicians using validated methods; data were analysed using descriptive analysis and multiple logistic regression. A total of 433 patients completed the study. The incidence of DDI-related ADRs was 6 % (n = 30). Warfarin was the most commonly involved drug (37 % cases), followed by acetylsalicylic acid (17 %), digoxin (17 %), and spironolactone (17 %). Gastrointestinal bleeding occurred in 37 % of the DDI-related ADR cases, followed by hyperkalemia (17 %) and myopathy (13 %). The multiple logistic regression showed that age a parts per thousand yen80 years [odds ratio (OR) 4.4; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 3.0-6.1, p < 0.01], a Charlson comorbidity index a parts per thousand yen4 (OR 1.3; 95 % CI 1.1-1.8, p < 0.01), consumption of five or more drugs (OR 2.7; 95 % CI 1.9-3.1, p < 0.01), and the use of warfarin (OR 1.7; 95 % CI1.1-1.9, p < 0.01) were associated with the occurrence of DDI-related ADRs. With regard to severity, approximately 37 % of the DDI-related ADRs detected in our cohort necessitated hospital admission. All DDI-related ADRs could have been avoided (87 % were ameliorable and 13 % were preventable). The incidence of ADRs not related to DDIs was 10 % (n = 44). The incidence of DDI-related ADRs in elderly outpatients is high; most events presented important clinical consequences and were preventable or ameliorable.

Septic shock in older people: a prospective cohort study

Abstract Background Septic shock is the first cause of death in Intensive Care Units. Despite experimental data showing increased inflammatory response of aged animals following infection, the current accepted hypothesis claims that aged patients are immunocompromised, when compared to young individuals. Results Here, we describe a prospective cohort study designed to analyze the immune profile of this population. Conclusion Older people are as immunocompetent as the young individual, regarding the cytokines, chemokines and growth factors response to devastating infection.

HIV-1 tropism and CD4 T lymphocyte recovery in a prospective cohort of patients initiating HAART in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil

While human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 chemokine co-receptors 5 tropism and the GWGR motif in the envelope third variable region (V3 loop) have been associated with a slower disease progression, their influence on antiretroviral response remains unclear. The impact of baseline V3 characteristics on treatment response was evaluated in a randomised, double blind, prospective cohort study with patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy with lopinavir or efavirenz plus azithothymidine/3TC (1:1) over 48 weeks. Similar virological and immunological responses were observed for both treatment regimens. The 43 individuals had a mean baseline CD4 T cell count of 119 cells/mm³ [standard deviation (SD) = 99] and a mean viral load of 5.09 log10 copies/mL (SD = 0.49). The GWGR motif was not associated with a CD4 T cell response, but predicted R5 tropism by the geno2pheno[clinical20%] algorithm correlated with higher CD4 T cell levels at all monitoring points (p < 0.05). Moreover, higher false-positive rates (FPR) values from this analysis revealed a strong correlation with CD4 T cell recovery (p < 0.0001). Transmitted drug resistance mutations, documented in 3/41 (7.3%) cases, were unrelated to the assigned antiretroviral regimen and had no impact on patient outcomes. In conclusion, naÏve HIV-1 R5 infected patients exhibited higher CD4 T cell counts at baseline; this difference was sustained throughout therapy. The geno2pheno[clinical] option FPR positively correlated with CD4 T cell gain and may be useful in predicting CD4 T cell recovery.

Relationship between body image disturbance and incidence of depression: the SUN prospective cohort

[EN] Background: Body image disturbance is an increasing problem in Western societies and is associated with a number of mental health outcomes including anorexia, bulimia, body dysmorphia, and depression. The aim of this study was to assess the association between body image disturbance and the incidence of depression. Methods: This study included 10,286 participants from a dynamic prospective cohort of Spanish university graduates, who were followed-up for a median period of 4.2 years (Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra – the SUN study). The key characteristic of the study is the permanently open recruitment that started in 1999. The baseline questionnaire included information about body mass index (BMI) and the nine figure schemes that were used to assess body size perception. These variables were grouped according to recommended classifications and the difference between BMI and body size perception was considered as a proxy of body image disturbance. A subject was classified as an incident case of depression if he/she was initially free of depression and reported a physician-made diagnosis of depression and/or the use of antidepressant medication in at least one of the follow-up questionnaires. The association between body image disturbance and the incidence of depression was estimated by calculating the multivariable adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) and its 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI), using logistic regression models. Results: The cumulative incidence of depression during follow-up in the cohort was 4.8%. Men who underestimated their body size had a high percentage of overweight and obesity (50.1% and 12.6%, respectively), whereas women who overestimated their body size had a high percentage of underweight (87.6%). The underestimation exhibited a negative association with the incidence of depression among women (OR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.54 – 0.95), but this effect disappeared after adjusting for possible confounding variables. The proportion of participants who correctly perceived their body size was high (53.3%) and gross misperception was seldom found, with most cases selecting only one silhouette below (42.7%) or above (2.6%) their actual BMI. Conclusion: We found no association between body image disturbance and subsequent depression in a cohort of university graduates in Spain.

Ten-year results of a three-arm prospective cohort study on implants in periodontally compromised patients. Part 1: implant loss and radiographic bone loss

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare the long-term outcomes of implants placed in patients treated for periodontitis periodontally compromised patients (PCP) and in periodontally healthy patients (PHP) in relation to adhesion to supportive periodontal therapy (SPT). MATERIAL AND METHODS: One hundred and twelve partially edentulous patients were consecutively enrolled in private specialist practice and divided into three groups according to their initial periodontal condition: PHP, moderate PCP and severe PCP. Perio and implant treatment was carried out as needed. Solid screws (S), hollow screws (HS) and hollow cylinders (HC) were installed to support fixed prostheses, after successful completion of initial periodontal therapy (full-mouth plaque score <25% and full-mouth bleeding score <25%). At the end of treatment, patients were asked to follow an individualized SPT program. At 10 years, clinical measures and radiographic bone changes were recorded by two calibrated operators, blinded to the initial patient classification. RESULTS: Eleven patients were lost to follow-up. During the period of observation, 18 implants were removed because of biological complications. The implant survival rate was 96.6%, 92.8% and 90% for all implants and 98%, 94.2% and 90% for S-implants only, respectively, for PHP, moderate PCP and severe PCP. The mean bone loss was 0.75 (+/- 0.88) mm in PHP, 1.14 (+/- 1.11) mm in moderate PCP and 0.98 (+/- 1.22) mm in severe PCP, without any statistically significant difference. The percentage of sites, with bone loss > or =3 mm, was, respectively, 4.7% for PHP, 11.2% for moderate PCP and 15.1% for severe PCP, with a statistically significant difference between PHP and severe PCP (P<0.05). Lack of adhesion to SPT was correlated with a higher incidence of bone loss and implant loss. CONCLUSION: Patients with a history of periodontitis presented a lower survival rate and a statistically significantly higher number of sites with peri-implant bone loss. Furthermore, PCP, who did not completely adhere to the SPT, were found to present a higher implant failure rate. This underlines the value of the SPT in enhancing the long-term outcomes of implant therapy, particularly in subjects affected by periodontitis, in order to control reinfection and limit biological complications.

(99m)Tc-DPD-SPECT/CT predicts the outcome of imaging-guided diagnostic anaesthetic injections: A prospective cohort study

We hypothesized that bone SPECT combined with multiplanar reconstructed CT can identify and target the pain-inducing focus in the foot and can be used to successfully guide anaesthetic infiltrations. Therefore we prospectively investigated feasibility and predictive value of bone SPECT/CT for image guided diagnostic infiltrations in patients with chronic foot pain.

Risk assessment in the first fifteen minutes: a prospective cohort study of a simple physiological scoring system in the emergency department

Introduction The survival of patients admitted to an emergency department is determined by the severity of acute illness and the quality of care provided. The high number and the wide spectrum of severity of illness of admitted patients make an immediate assessment of all patients unrealistic. The aim of this study is to evaluate a scoring system based on readily available physiological parameters immediately after admission to an emergency department (ED) for the purpose of identification of at-risk patients. Methods This prospective observational cohort study includes 4,388 consecutive adult patients admitted via the ED of a 960-bed tertiary referral hospital over a period of six months. Occurrence of each of seven potential vital sign abnormalities (threat to airway, abnormal respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, low Glasgow Coma Scale and seizures) was collected and added up to generate the vital sign score (VSS). VSSinitial was defined as the VSS in the first 15 minutes after admission, VSSmax as the maximum VSS throughout the stay in ED. Occurrence of single vital sign abnormalities in the first 15 minutes and VSSinitial and VSSmax were evaluated as potential predictors of hospital mortality. Results Logistic regression analysis identified all evaluated single vital sign abnormalities except seizures and abnormal respiratory rate to be independent predictors of hospital mortality. Increasing VSSinitial and VSSmax were significantly correlated to hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) 2.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.50 to 3.14, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial; OR 2.36, 95% CI 2.15 to 2.60, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). The predictive power of VSS was highest if collected in the first 15 minutes after ED admission (log rank Chi-square 468.1, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial;,log rank Chi square 361.5, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). Conclusions Vital sign abnormalities and VSS collected in the first minutes after ED admission can identify patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Differences in access and patient outcomes across antiretroviral treatment clinics in the Free State province: a prospective cohort study

Objective. To assess differences in access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and patient outcomes across public sector treatment facilities in the Free State province, South Africa. Design. Prospective cohort study with retrospective database linkage. We analysed data on patients enrolled in the treatment programme across 36 facilities between May 2004 and December 2007, and assessed percentage initiating ART and percentage dead at 1 year after enrolment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate associations of facility-level and patient-level characteristics with both mortality and treatment status. Results. Of 44 866 patients enrolled, 15 219 initiated treatment within 1 year; 8 778 died within 1 year, 7 286 before accessing ART. Outcomes at 1 year varied greatly across facilities and more variability was explained by facility-level factors than by patient-level factors. The odds of starting treatment within 1 year improved over calendar time. Patients enrolled in facilities with treatment initiation available on site had higher odds of starting treatment and lower odds of death at 1 year compared with those enrolled in facilities that did not offer treatment initiation. Patients were less likely to start treatment if they were male, severely immunosuppressed (CD4 count ≤50 cells/μl), or underweight (<50 kg). Men were also more likely to die in the first year after enrolment. Conclusions. Although increasing numbers of patients started ART between 2004 and 2007, many patients died before accessing ART. Patient outcomes could be improved by decentralisation of treatment services, fast-tracking the most immunodeficient patients and improving access, especially for men.