Cenários de impacto de uma eventual pandemia de gripe na população portuguesa : morbilidade, mortalidade e necessidade de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução — O presente estudo descreve os cenários de impacto que uma eventual pandemia de gripe poderá ter na população portuguesa e nos serviços de saúde. Trata-se de uma versão actualizada dos cenários preliminares que têm vindo a ser elaborados e discutidos desde 2005. Material e métodos — Os cenários assumem que a pandemia ocorrerá em duas ondas das quais a primeira (taxa de ataque: 10%) será menos intensa do que a segunda (taxas de ataque: 20%, 25% ou 30%). Neste trabalho são descritos apenas os cenários respeitantes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global = 10% + 30%). A elaboração dos cenários utilizou o método proposto por Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. e Fukuda, K. (1999) mas com quase todos os parâmetros adaptados à população portuguesa. Esta adaptação incidiu sobre: 1. duração da pandemia; 2. taxa de letalidade; 3. percentagem da população com risco elevado de complicações; 4. percentagem de doentes com suspeita de gripe que procurará consulta; 5. tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a procura de cuidados; 6. percentagem de doentes que terá acesso efectivo a antiviral; 7. taxa de hospitalização por gripe e tempo médio de hospitalização; 8. percentagem de doentes hospitalizados que necessitarão de cuidados intensivos (CI) e tempo de internamento em CI; 9. efectividade de oseltamivir para evitar complicações e morte. Resultados — Os cenários correspondentes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global: 10% + 30%) são apresentados sem qualquer intervenção e, também, com utilização de oseltamivir para fins terapêuticos. Os resultados sem intervenção para o cenário «provável» indicam: • número total de casos — 4 142 447; • número total de indivíduos a necessitar de consulta — 5 799 426; • número total de hospitalizações — 113 712; • número total de internamentos em cuidados intensivos — 17 057; • número total de óbitos — 32 051; • número total de óbitos, nas semanas com valor máximo — 1.a onda: 2551, 2.a onda: 7651. Quando os cenários foram simulados entrando em linha de conta com a utilização de oseltamivir (considerando uma efectividade de 10% e 30%), verificou-se uma redução dos valores dos óbitos e hospitalizações calculados. O presente artigo também apresenta a distribuição semanal, no período de desenvolvimento da pandemia, dos vários resultados obtidos. Discussão — Os resultados apresentados devem ser interpretados como «cenários» e não como «previsões». De facto, as incertezas existentes em relação à doença e ao seu agente não permitem prever com rigor suficiente os seus impactos sobre a população e sobre os serviços de saúde. Por isso, os cenários agora apresentados servem, sobretudo, para fins de planeamento. Assim, a preparação da resposta à eventual pandemia pode ser apoiada em valores cujas ordens de grandeza correspondem às situações de mais elevada gravidade. Desta forma, a sua utilização para outros fins é inadequada e é vivamente desencorajada pelos autores.

A Prova por reconhecimento de pessoas produzida ex novo em sede de audiência de julgamento: fiabilidade e impacto na descoberta da verdade material

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito Judiciário (Direitos Processuais e Organização Judiciária)

Preliminary study of cooperation in hybrid ad-hoc networks

In this paper, we present a first approach to evolve a cooperative behavior in ad hoc networks. Since wireless nodes are energy constrained, it may not be in the best interest of a node to always accept relay requests. On the other hand, if all nodes decide not to expend energy in relaying, then network throughput will drop dramatically. Both these extreme scenarios are unfavorable to the interests of a user. In this paper we deal with the issue of user cooperation in ad hoc networks by developing the algorithm called Generous Tit-For-Tat. We assume that nodes are rational, i.e., their actions are strictly determined by self-interest, and that each node is associated with a minimum lifetime constraint. Given these lifetime constraints and the assumption of rational behavior, we study the added behavior of the network.

The biophysical perspective of a middle income economy: material flows in Mexico

We analyse natural resource use dynamics in the Mexican economy during the last three decades. Despite low and uneven economic growth, the extraction and use of materials in the Mexican economy has continuously increased during the last 30 years. In this period, population growth rather than economic growth was the main driving force for biophysical growth. In addition, fundamental changes have taken place in the primary sectors, in manufacturing, and in household consumption and these are reflected in an increasing emphasis on the use of fossil fuels and construction materials. Mexico’s economy has been strongly influenced by international trade since the country commenced competing in international markets. In the 1970s, Mexico mainly exported primary resources. This pattern has changed and manufactured goods now have a much greater importance due to a boom in assembling industries. In contrast with other Latin American countries, Mexico has achieved a diversification of production, moving towards technology-intensive products and a better mix in its export portfolio. However, crude oil exports still represent the single most important export good. Mexico’s material consumption is still well below the OECD average but is growing fast and the current resource use patterns may well present serious social and environmental problems to the medium and long term sustainability of Mexico’s economy and community. Information on natural resource use and resource productivity could provide valuable guidance for economic policy planning in Mexico.

The Impact of democratization: a preliminary investigation on social policies and political violence in Latin America

The recent strides of democracy in Latin America have been associated to conflicting outcomes. The expectation that democracy would bring about peace and prosperity have been only partly satisfied. While political violence has been by and large eradicated from the sub-continent, poverty and social injustice still prevail and hold sway. Our study argues that democracy matters for inequality through the growing strength of center left and left parties and by making political leaders in general more responsive to the underprivileged. Furthermore, although the pension reforms recently enacted in the region generated overall regressive outcomes on income distribution, democratic countries still benefit from their political past: where democratic tradition was stronger, such outcomes have been milder. Democratic tradition and the specific ideological connotations of the parties in power, on the other hand, did not play an equally crucial role in securing lower levels of political violence: during the last wave of democratizations in Latin America, domestic peace was rather an outcome of political and social concessions to those in distress. In sum, together with other factors and especially economic ones, the reason why recent democratizations have provided domestic peace in most cases, but have been unable so far to solve the problem of poverty and inequality, is that democratic traditions in the subcontinent have been relatively weak and, more specifically, that this weakness has undermined the growth of left and progressive parties, acting as an obstacle to redistribution. Such weakness, on the other hand, has not prevented the drastic reduction of domestic political violence, since what mattered in this case was a combination of symbolic or material concessions and political agreements among powerful élites and counter-élites.

A Preliminary Investigation on the Chemical Composition of the Cell Surface of Five Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli Serotypes

The cell surfaces of five enteropathogenic Escherichia coli serotypes (O111:H2; O111:H12; O125:H9; O119:H6; O26:H11) were assayed by chemical methods, lectin agglutination tests and spectroscopy associated to transmission electron microscopy. Results of lectin agglutination assays showed that all strains reacted with mannosebinding lectins. Strains belonging to serotype O125:H9 also agglutinated with lectins which recognize galactose and Nacetylgalactosamine residues. The bacterial cells were treated with 0.01M phosphate buffered saline (pH 7.0) at 100oC for 2 hr and the extracts were submitted to precipitation and fractionated by Cetavlon. Phosphate, total sugar and protein contents were determined. Gas liquid chomatography-mass spectrometry analysis of alditol acetates showed the presence of galactose, mannose, fucose, glucose and traces of ribose. Spectroscopic analysis of intact cells showed the presence of a capsule-like structure which was not totally preserved after extraction. Some cells were still surrounded by an amorphous capsular-like material after polysaccharide extraction.

Helical tomotherapy (HT) for the treatment of anal canal cancer: preliminary clinical results, and dosimetric comparison between HT and intensity-modulated or 3D conformal radiotherapy

Background: To report a single-center experience in 19 patients (pts) with anal canal cancer treated with helical tomotherapy (HT) and concurrent chemotherapy, and compare the dosimetric results with fixed-field intensitymodulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and 3D conformal radiotherapy (3D RT). Materials and Methods: Between 2007 and 2008, 19 consecutive pts were treated with HT and concurrent CT for anal canal cancer. Median age was 59 years (range, 38−83), and female/male ratio was 14/5. The majority of the pts had T2 or T3 tumours (68.4%), and 52.6% had positive lymph nodes. In all 19 pts, pelvic and inguinal nodes, and tumour irradiation was given using HT upto a median dose of 36 Gy (1.8 Gy/fr) followed by a 1-week gap. A boost dose of 23.4 Gy (1.8 Gy/fr) was delivered to the tumour and involved nodes using 3DRT (n = 12), HT (n = 6), or IMRT (n = 1). Simultaneous integrated boost was used in none of the pts. All but one patient with a T1N0 tumour received concomitant mitomycin/5- fluorouracil (n = 12) or mitomycin/capecitabin (n = 7) CT. Toxicity was scored according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (NCICTCAE v3.0). HT plans and treatments were generated using Tomotherapy, Inc., software and hardware; and 3D or IMRT boost plans with the CMS treatment planning system (TPS), using 6−18 MV photons from a Siemens Primus accelerator. For dosimetric comparison, computed tomography data sets of 10 pts were imported into the TPS, and 3D and 5-field step-andshoot IMRT plans were generated for each case. Plans were optimized with the aim of assessing organs at risk (OAR) and healthy-tissue sparing while enforcing highly conformal target coverage, and evaluated by dose-volume histograms (DVH) of planning target volumes (PTV) and OAR. Results: With a median follow-up of 13 months (range, 3−18), all pts are alive and well; except one patient developing local recurrence at 12 months. No patient developed grade 3 or more acute toxicity. No unplanned treatment interruption was necessary because of toxicity. With 360-degree-of-freedom beam projection, HT showed an advantage over 3D or IMRT plans in terms of dose conformity around the PTV, and dose gradients were steeper outside the PTV, resulting in reduced doses to OARs. Using HT, acute toxicity was acceptable, and seemed to be better than historical standards. Conclusion: We conclude that HT combined with concurrent chemotherapy for anal canal cancer is effective and tolerable. Compared to 3DRT or 5-field IMRT, there is better conformity around the PTV, and OAR sparing.

Dummy run and conformity indices in the ongoing EORTC low-grade glioma trial 22033-26033: First evaluation of quality of radiotherapy planning.

PURPOSE: Early assessment of radiotherapy (RT) quality in the ongoing EORTC trial comparing primary temozolomide versus RT in low-grade gliomas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: RT plans provided for dummy cases were evaluated and compared against expert plans. We analysed: (1) tumour and organs-at-risk delineation, (2) geometric and dosimetric characteristics, (3) planning parameters, compliance with dose prescription and Dmax for OAR (4) indices: RTOG conformity index (CI), coverage factor (CF), tissue protection factor (PF); conformity number (CN = PF x CF); dose homogeneity in PTV (U). RESULTS: Forty-one RT plans were evaluated. Only two (5%) centres were requested to repeat CTV-PTV delineations. Three (7%) plans had a significant under-dosage and dose homogeneity in one deviated > 10%. Dose distribution was good with mean values of 1.5, 1, 0.68, and 0.68 (ideal values = 1) for CI, CF, PF, and CN, respectively. CI and CN strongly correlated with PF and they correlated with PTV. Planning with more beams seems to increase PTV(Dmin), improving CF. U correlated with PTV(Dmax). CONCLUSION: Preliminary results of the dummy run procedure indicate that most centres conformed to protocol requirements. To quantify plan quality we recommend systematic calculation of U and either CI or CN, both of which measure the amount of irradiated normal brain tissue.

Guiding students through competence-based educational material

Student guidance is an always desired characteristic in any educational system, butit represents special difficulty if it has to be deployed in an automated way to fulfilsuch needs in a computer supported educational tool. In this paper we explorepossible avenues relying on machine learning techniques, to be included in a nearfuture -in the form of a tutoring navigational tool- in a teleeducation platform -InterMediActor- currently under development. Since no data from that platform isavailable yet, the preliminary experiments presented in this paper are builtinterpreting every subject in the Telecommunications Degree at Universidad CarlosIII de Madrid as an aggregated macro-competence (following the methodologicalconsiderations in InterMediActor), such that marks achieved by students can beused as data for the models, to be replaced in a near future by real data directlymeasured inside InterMediActor. We evaluate the predictability of students qualifications, and we deploy a preventive early detection system -failure alert-, toidentify those students more prone to fail a certain subject such that correctivemeans can be deployed with sufficient anticipation.

Detection of fat embolism in cases with postmortem angiography (PMA) - Preliminary results

Introduction: Pulmonary fat embolism (PFE) can be a cause of death in cases with trauma, during orthopedic surgery and also in non-traumatic conditions, such as burns, pancreatitis, fatty liver or sickle cell disease. As PMA becomes more widespread, it is important to determine how it affects the diagnosis of PFE. Aims: The aim of this study was to determine if the oily contrast liquid used in PMA induces artefactual PFE, if such artefacts differ from original PFE and if PFE can be detected and graded before PMA. Material and methods: Cases of adults without signs of postmortem change and for which an autopsy with angiography was performed were selected for this study. Pulmonary biopsies of each lung were taken before and after the angiography as were fragments of each lung with a twin-edged knife during the autopsy. The samples were examined under the microscope without fixation or staining and after an Oil-Red O staining. PFE was graded according to Falci et al. Results: Non-artefactual (original) PFE was diagnosed in 4 cases on pre-PMA biopsies. As expected, structures with the aspect of PFE were present in all cases after angiography. The microscopical aspect of original and PMA induced PFE was identical. Grading of the PFE according to Falci et al. was depending on the quality of the biopsies. Conclusions: PMA with oily contrast induces artefactual PFE that cannot be visually differentiated from original PFE. Original PFE can however be diagnosed with pre-angiography biopsies. In order to assure the diagnosis and correct grading of PFE, the quality of the biopsy should be checked before PMA with oily contrast.

Preliminary slope mass movement susceptibility mapping using DEM and LiDAR DEM

Hazard mapping in mountainous areas at the regional scale has greatly changed since the 1990s thanks to improved digital elevation models (DEM). It is now possible to model slope mass movement and floods with a high level of detail in order to improve geomorphologic mapping. We present examples of regional multi-hazard susceptibility mapping through two Swiss case studies, including landslides, rockfall, debris flows, snow avalanches and floods, in addition to several original methods and software tools. The aim of these recent developments is to take advantage of the availability of high resolution DEM (HRDEM) for better mass movement modeling. Our results indicate a good correspondence between inventories of hazardous zones based on historical events and model predictions. This paper demonstrates that by adapting tools and methods issued from modern technologies, it is possible to obtain reliable documents for land planning purposes over large areas.

Model-based Segmentation and Fusion of 3D Computed Tomography and 3D Ultrasound of the Eye for Radiotherapy Planning

Computed Tomography (CT) represents the standard imaging modality for tumor volume delineation for radiotherapy treatment planning of retinoblastoma despite some inherent limitations. CT scan is very useful in providing information on physical density for dose calculation and morphological volumetric information but presents a low sensitivity in assessing the tumor viability. On the other hand, 3D ultrasound (US) allows a highly accurate definition of the tumor volume thanks to its high spatial resolution but it is not currently integrated in the treatment planning but used only for diagnosis and follow-up. Our ultimate goal is an automatic segmentation of gross tumor volume (GTV) in the 3D US, the segmentation of the organs at risk (OAR) in the CT and the registration of both modalities. In this paper, we present some preliminary results in this direction. We present 3D active contour-based segmentation of the eye ball and the lens in CT images; the presented approach incorporates the prior knowledge of the anatomy by using a 3D geometrical eye model. The automated segmentation results are validated by comparing with manual segmentations. Then, we present two approaches for the fusion of 3D CT and US images: (i) landmark-based transformation, and (ii) object-based transformation that makes use of eye ball contour information on CT and US images.

A participatory approach to tactical forest planning

Jyrki Kangas ... [et al.]

Preliminary evaluation of acid mine drainage in Minas Gerais State, Brazil

Mining in the State of Minas Gerais-Brazil is one of the activities with the strongest impact on the environment, in spite of its economical importance. Amongst mining activities, acid drainage poses a serious environmental problem due to its widespread practice in gold-extracting areas. It originates from metal-sulfide oxidation, which causes water acidification, increasing the risk of toxic element mobilization and water resource pollution. This research aimed to evaluate the acid drainage problem in Minas Gerais State. The study began with a bibliographic survey at FEAM (Environment Foundation of Minas Gerais State) to identify mining sites where sulfides occur. Substrate samples were collected from these sites to determine AP (acidity potential) and NP (neutralization potential). The AP was evaluated by the procedure of the total sulfide content and by oxygen peroxide oxidation, followed by acidity titration. The NP was evaluated by the calcium carbonate equivalent. Petrographic thin sections were also mounted and described with a special view to sulfides and carbonates. Based on the chemical analysis, the acid-base accounting (ABA) was determined by the difference of AP and NP, and the acid drainage potential obtained by the ABA value and the total volume of material at each site. Results allowed the identification of substrates with potential to generate acid drainage in Minas Gerais state. Altogether these activities represent a potential to produce between 3.1 to 10.4 billions of m³ of water at pH 2 or 31.4 to 103.7 billions of m³ of water at pH 3. This, in turn, would imply in costs of US$ 7.8 to 25.9 millions to neutralize the acidity with commercial limestone. These figures are probably underestimated because some mines were not surveyed, whereas, in other cases, surface samples may not represent reality. A more reliable state-wide evaluation of the acid drainage potential would require further studies, including a larger number of samples. Such investigations should consider other mining operations beyond the scope of this study as well as the kinetics of the acid generation by simulated weathering procedures.