Modelling methodology and forecast failure

We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.

Human monstrosity: rape, ambiguity and performance in Rosemary’s Baby (Roman Polanski, 1968)

The narrative of Rosemary’s Baby hinges on a central hesitation between pregnancy induced madness and the existence of Satanism. Accordingly, the monstrous element is embodied in both the real and the supernatural: Rosemary’s husband Guy (John Cassavetes) is responsible for her victimisation through rape in either explanation. However, I will argue that the inherent ambiguity of the plot makes it difficult to place him as such a figure typical to the archetypal horror binaries of normality/monster, human/inhuman. By displacing generic convention the film complicates the issue of monstrosity, whilst simultaneously offering the possibility for the depiction of female experience of marriage to be at the centre of the narrative, for the real to be possibly of more significance than the supernatural. Previous writing has tended to concentrate on Rosemary and her pregnancy, so through detailed consideration of Cassavetes’ performance and its placement in the mise-en-scène this focus on Guy aims to demonstrate that he changes almost as much as Rosemary does. The chapter will focus on the film’s depiction of rape, during Rosemary’s nightmare and after it, in order to demonstrate how the notion of performance reveals Guy’s monstrousness and the difficulties this represents in our engagement with him.

Feminist approaches to sexuality and law scholarship

Sexuality and Law scholarship is a new and developing field but, like most legal scholarship, it is dominated by masculine concerns and methodologies. This article explains why research that ignores feminist concerns and methodologies will be incomplete and inaccurate, and suggests questions that should be asked of resources to ensure a complete and accurate coverage of the topic.

Adding a treatment arm to an ongoing clinical trial: a review of methodology and practice

Incorporating an emerging therapy as a new randomisation arm in a clinical trial that is open to recruitment would be desirable to researchers, regulators and patients to ensure that the trial remains current, new treatments are evaluated as quickly as possible, and the time and cost for determining optimal therapies is minimised. It may take many years to run a clinical trial from concept to reporting within a rapidly changing drug development environment; hence, in order for trials to be most useful to inform policy and practice, it is advantageous for them to be able to adapt to emerging therapeutic developments. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review on methodologies for, and practical examples of, amending an ongoing clinical trial by adding a new treatment arm. Relevant methodological literature describing statistical considerations required when making this specific type of amendment is identified, and the key statistical concepts when planning the addition of a new treatment arm are extracted, assessed and summarised. For completeness, this includes an assessment of statistical recommendations within general adaptive design guidance documents. Examples of confirmatory ongoing trials designed within the frequentist framework that have added an arm in practice are reported; and the details of the amendment are reviewed. An assessment is made as to how well the relevant statistical considerations were addressed in practice, and the related implications. The literature review confirmed that there is currently no clear methodological guidance on this topic, but that guidance would be advantageous to help this efficient design amendment to be used more frequently and appropriately in practice. Eight confirmatory trials were identified to have added a treatment arm, suggesting that trials can benefit from this amendment and that it can be practically feasible; however, the trials were not always able to address the key statistical considerations, often leading to uninterpretable or invalid outcomes. If the statistical concepts identified within this review are considered and addressed during the design of a trial amendment, it is possible to effectively assess a new treatment arm within an ongoing trial without compromising the original trial outcomes.

Collocating satellite-based radar and radiometer measurements — methodology and usage examples

Collocations between two satellite sensors are occasions where both sensors observe the same place at roughly the same time. We study collocations between the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) on-board NOAA-18 and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on-board CloudSat. First, a simple method is presented to obtain those collocations and this method is compared with a more complicated approach found in literature. We present the statistical properties of the collocations, with particular attention to the effects of the differences in footprint size. For 2007, we find approximately two and a half million MHS measurements with CPR pixels close to their centrepoints. Most of those collocations contain at least ten CloudSat pixels and image relatively homogeneous scenes. In the second part, we present three possible applications for the collocations. Firstly, we use the collocations to validate an operational Ice Water Path (IWP) product from MHS measurements, produced by the National Environment Satellite, Data and Information System (NESDIS) in the Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS). IWP values from the CloudSat CPR are found to be significantly larger than those from the MSPPS. Secondly, we compare the relation between IWP and MHS channel 5 (190.311 GHz) brightness temperature for two datasets: the collocated dataset, and an artificial dataset. We find a larger variability in the collocated dataset. Finally, we use the collocations to train an Artificial Neural Network and describe how we can use it to develop a new MHS-based IWP product. We also study the effect of adding measurements from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), channels 8 (11.11 μm) and 11 (8.33 μm). This shows a small improvement in the retrieval quality. The collocations described in the article are available for public use.

EULAR/PRINTO/PRES criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura, childhood polyarteritis nodosa, childhood Wegener granulomatosis and childhood Takayasu arteritis: Ankara 2008. Part I: Overall methodology and clinical characterisation

Objectives To report methodology and overall clinical, laboratory and radiographic characteristics for Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP), childhood polyarteritis nodosa (c-PAN), c-Wegener granulomatosis (c-WG) and c-Takayasu arteritis (c-TA) classification criteria.Methods The preliminary Vienna 2005 consensus conference, which proposed preliminary criteria for paediatric vasculitides, was followed by a EULAR/PRINTO/PRES-supported validation project divided into three main steps. Step 1: retrospective/prospective web-data collection for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA, with age at diagnosis <= 18 years. Step 2: blinded classification by consensus panel of a subgroup of 280 cases (128 difficult cases, 152 randomly selected) enabling expert diagnostic verification. Step 3: Ankara 2008 Consensus Conference and statistical evaluation (sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, kappa-agreement) using as 'gold standard' the final consensus classification or original treating physician diagnosis.Results A total of 1183/1398 (85%) samples collected were available for analysis: 827 HSP, 150 c-PAN, 60 c-WG, 87 c-TA and 59 c-other. Prevalence, signs/symptoms, laboratory, biopsy and imaging reports were consistent with the clinical picture of the four c-vasculitides. A representative subgroup of 280 patients was blinded to the treating physician diagnosis and classified by a consensus panel, with kappa-agreement of 0.96 for HSP (95% CI 0.84 to 1), 0.88 for c-WG (95% CI 0.76 to 0.99), 0.84 for c-TA (95% CI 0.73 to 0.96) and 0.73 for c-PAN (95% CI 0.62 to 0.84), with an overall. of 0.79 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.84).Conclusion EULAR/PRINTO/PRES propose validated classification criteria for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA, with substantial/almost perfect agreement with the final consensus classification or original treating physician diagnosis.

A methodology and a tool to design of mixed-signal technology

This paper presents a tool box developed to read files describing a SIMULINK® model and translates it into a structural VHDL-AMS description. In translation process, all files and directory structures to simulate the translated model on SystemVision™ environment is generate. The tool box named MS2SV was tested by three models of commercially available digital-to-analogue converters. All models use the R2R ladder network to conversion, but the functionality of these three components is different. The methodology of conversion of the model is presents together with sort theory about R-2R ladder network. In the evaluation of the translated models, we used a sine waveform input signal and the waveform generated by D/A conversion process was compared by FFT analysis. The results show the viability of this type of approach. This work considers some of challenges set by the electronic industry for the further development of simulation methodologies and tools in the field of mixed-signal technology. © 2007 IEEE.

TroCCiBras and its partner projects HIBISCUS and TROCCINOX: The 2004 field campaign in the state of São Paulo

This overview paper summarizes the objectives of the Tropical Convection and Cirrus Brasil project, as well as those of the European Commission sponsored HIBISCUS and TROCCINOX projects, which conducted a joint field campaign in the State of São Paulo from January to March 2004. Emphasis is given on the description of different types of lidars and their deployment for obtaining meteorological data during the joint field campaign in 2004. © Sociedad Española de Óptica.

Proposals for improvement of methodology and process of collecting and analyzing compatibility of power quality indicators in distribution systems

This article aims to present proposals for improvement of key standards and resolutions concerned about the methodology for calculating the indicator of total harmonic voltage distortion, and should contribute to the process of examining the compatibility of potentially disturbing loads in electric power quality in distribution systems. These proposals were drawn from the analysis of results from measurement campaigns conducted in a case study including analysis of the connection of a new induction furnace in a foundry served by a distributor of São Paulo state. A general historical situating the quality of electric energy in the electricity sector is presented, and methodological guidelines and procedures used in experimental trials are shown. The analysis and discussion of results are prepared to answer the main questions that arise during the implementation of standards, resolutions and procedures. © 2011 IEEE.

Structural budget balance: methodology and estimation for the Chilean central government 1987-2001

Includes bibliography

Evaluation of a propolis water extract using a reliable RP-HPLC methodology and in vitro and in vivo efficacy and safety characterisation

Since the beginning of propolis research, several groups have studied its antibacterial, antifungal, and antiviral properties. However, most of these studies have only employed propolis ethanolic extract (PEE) leading to little knowledge about the biological activities of propolis water extract (PWE). Based on this, in a previous study, we demonstrated the anti-inflammatory and immunomodulatory activities of PWE. In order to better understand the equilibrium between effectiveness and toxicity, which is essential for a new medicine, the characteristics of PWE were analyzed. We developed and validated an RP-HPLC method to chemically characterize PWE and PEE and evaluated the in vitro antioxidant/antimicrobial activity for both extracts and the safety of PWE via determining genotoxic potential using in vitro and in vivo mammalian micronucleus assays. We have concluded that the proposed analytical methodology was reliable, and both extracts showed similar chemical composition. The extracts presented antioxidant and antimicrobial effects, while PWE demonstrated higher antioxidant activity and more efficacious for the most of the microorganisms tested than PEE. Finally, PWE was shown to be safe using micronucleus assays. © 2013 Bruno Alves Rocha et al.

Report on Workshop on Disaster Valuation: ECLAC's methodology and preparation of a revised training manual

Includes bibliography