Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

La chaîne des secours: le modèle vaudois [An efficient example of a Swiss pre-hospital chain of survival: the state of Vaud model].

The state of Vaud model of the pre-hospital chain of survival is an example of an efficient way to deal with pre-hospital emergencies. It revolves around a centrally located dispatch center managing emergencies according to specific key words, allowing dispatchers to send out resources among which we find general practitioners, ambulances, physician staffed fast response cars or physician staffed helicopters and specific equipment. The Vaud pre-hospital chain of survival has been tailored according to geographical, demographical and political necessities. It undergoes constant reassessment and needs continuous adaptations to the ever changing demographics and epidemiology of pre-hospital medicine.

Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

A mouse model for improving cell survival of bisected cattle embryos

Selostus: Hiiren alkio mallina solukestävyyden parantamiseksi naudan alkioiden halkaisussa

Tc-99m-MAA SPECT-derived tumor-to-normal liver ratios for partition model dosimetry in selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT)

Aim: When planning SIRT using 90Y microspheres, the partition model is used to refine the activity calculated by the body surface area (BSA) method to potentially improve the safety and efficacy of treatment. For this partition model dosimetry, accurate determination of mean tumor-to-normal liver ratio (TNR) is critical since it directly impacts absorbed dose estimates. This work aimed at developing and assessing a reliable methodology for the calculation of 99mTc-MAA SPECT/CT-derived TNR ratios based on phantom studies. Materials and methods: IQ NEMA (6 hot spheres) and Kyoto liver phantoms with different hot/background activity concentration ratios were imaged on a SPECT/CT (GE Infinia Hawkeye 4). For each reconstruction with the IQ phantom, TNR quantification was assessed in terms of relative recovery coefficients (RC) and image noise was evaluated in terms of coefficient of variation (COV) in the filled background. RCs were compared using OSEM with Hann, Butterworth and Gaussian filters, as well as FBP reconstruction algorithms. Regarding OSEM, RCs were assessed by varying different parameters independently, such as the number of iterations (i) and subsets (s) and the cut-off frequency of the filter (fc). The influence of the attenuation and diffusion corrections was also investigated. Furthermore, both 2D-ROIs and 3D-VOIs contouring were compared. For this purpose, dedicated Matlab© routines were developed in-house for automatic 2D-ROI/3D-VOI determination to reduce intra-user and intra-slice variability. Best reconstruction parameters and RCs obtained with the IQ phantom were used to recover corrected TNR in case of the Kyoto phantom for arbitrary hot-lesion size. In addition, we computed TNR volume histograms to better assess uptake heterogeneityResults: The highest RCs were obtained with OSEM (i=2, s=10) coupled with the Butterworth filter (fc=0.8). Indeed, we observed a global 20% RC improvement over other OSEM settings and a 50% increase as compared to the best FBP reconstruction. In any case, both attenuation and diffusion corrections must be applied, thus improving RC while preserving good image noise (COV<10%). Both 2D-ROI and 3D-VOI analysis lead to similar results. Nevertheless, we recommend using 3D-VOI since tumor uptake regions are intrinsically 3D. RC-corrected TNR values lie within 17% around the true value, substantially improving the evaluation of small volume (<15 mL) regions. Conclusions: This study reports the multi-parameter optimization of 99mTc MAA SPECT/CT images reconstruction in planning 90Y dosimetry for SIRT. In phantoms, accurate quantification of TNR was obtained using OSEM coupled with Butterworth and RC correction.

Deleterious Actions Of Vegf On The Blood Retinal Barrier And Photoreceptor Survival In The Light-damage Model

Purpose: The retinal balance between pro- and anti-angiogenic factors is critical for angiogenesis control, but is also involved in cell survival. We previously reported upregulation of VEGF and photoreceptor (PR) cell death in the Light-damage (LD) model. Preliminary results showed that anti-VEGF can rescue PR from cell death. Thus, we investigated the role of VEGF on the retina and we herein described the effect of anti-VEGF antibody delivered by lentiviral gene transfer in this model.Methods: To characterize the action of VEGF during the LD, we exposed Balb/c mice subretinally injected with LV-anti-VEGF, or not, to 5'000 lux for 1h. We next evaluated the retinal function, PR survival and protein expression (VEGF, VEGFR1/2, Src, PEDF, p38MAPK, Akt, Peripherin, SWL-opsin) after LD. We analyzed Blood retinal barrier (BRB) integrity on flat-mounted RPE and cryosections stained with β-catenin, ZO-1, N-cadherin and albumin.Results: Results indicate that the VEGF pathway is modulated after LD. LD leads to extravascular albumin leakage and BRB breakdown: β-catenin, ZO-1 and N-cadherin translocate to the cytoplasm of RPE cells showing loss of cell cohesion. This phenomenon is in adequacy with the VEGF time-course expression. Assessment of the retinal function reveals that PR rescue correlates with the level of LV-anti-VEGF expression. Rhodopsin content was higher in the LV-anti-VEGF group than in controls and measures of the ONL thickness indicate that LV-anti-VEGF preserves by 82% the outer nuclear layer from degeneration. Outer segments (OS) appeared well organized with an appropriate length in the LV-anti-VEGF group compared to controls, and the expression of SWL-opsin is maintained in the OS without being mislocalized as in the LV-GFP group. Finally, LV-anti-VEGF treatment prevents BRB breakdown and maintained RPE cell integrity.Conclusions: This study involves VEGF in LD and highlights the prime importance of the BRB integrity for PR survival. Taken together, these results show that anti-VEGF is neuroprotective in this model and maintains functional PR layer in LD-treated mice.

Anti-VEGFA therapy reduces tumor growth and extends survival in a murine model of ovarian granulosa cell tumor

Les tumeurs des cellules de la granulosa (GCTs) sont des tumeurs avec un potentiel malin ayant tendance à récidiver, provoquant ainsi la mort dans 80% des cas de stade avancé consécutif à une rechute. Bien que les GCTs représentent 5% des tumeurs ovariennes, peu d’études ont évalué les protocoles de traitement adjuvant pour la maladie avancée ou récurrente. Notre but était d’évaluer l’efficacité de la voie de signalisation du facteur de croissance de l’endothélium vasculaire A (VEGFA) comme cible pour le traitement de la GCT utilisant le modèle murin transgénique Ptentm1Hwu/tm1Hwu; Ctnnb1tm1Mmt/+; Amhr2tm3(cre)Bhr/+ (PCA) qui reproduit le stade avancé de la maladie humaine. Un anticorps anti-VEGFA a été administré une fois par semaine par voie intrapéritonéale (IP) à partir de 3 semaines d’âge. La thérapie anti-VEGFA a permis une réduction de la taille des tumeurs à 6 semaines d’âge (p<0.05) et une prolongation de la survie des animaux traités, lorsque comparé aux animaux contrôles. L’analyse des GCTs a montré une réduction significative de la prolifération cellulaire (p<0.05) et de la densité microvasculaire (p<0.01) mais aucune différence significative n’a été détectée dans l’apoptose cellulaire. p44/p42 MAPK, un effecteur de la signalisation pour le récepteur 2 de VEGFA (VEGFR2) associé à la prolifération cellulaire, était moins activé dans les tumeurs traitées (p<0.05). Par contre, l’activation d’AKT, un effecteur impliqué dans la survie cellulaire, était similaire d’un groupe à l’autre. Ces résultats suggèrent que l’anticorps anti-VEGFA réduit la prolifération cellulaire et la densité microvasculaire chez les souris PCA par inhibition de la voie de signalisation VEGFR2-MAPK, inhibant ainsi la croissance tumorale. En conclusion, l’efficacité de la thérapie anti- VEGFA mérite d’être évaluée en essais contrôlés randomisés pour le traitement des GCTs chez l’homme.

An integrated mathematical model to evaluate nutrient partition in dairy cattle between the animal and its environment

In the past decade, a number of mechanistic, dynamic simulation models of several components of the dairy production system have become available. However their use has been limited due to the detailed technical knowledge and special software required to run them, and the lack of compatibility between models in predicting various metabolic processes in the animal. The first objective of the current study was to integrate the dynamic models of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 679] on rumen function, [J. Anim. Sci. 79 (2001) 1584] on methane production, [J. Anim. Sci. 80 (2002) 2481 on N partition, and a new model of P partition. The second objective was to construct a decision support system to analyse nutrient partition between animal and environment. The integrated model combines key environmental pollutants such as N, P and methane within a nutrient-based feed evaluation system. The model was run under different scenarios and the sensitivity of various parameters analysed. A comparison of predictions from the integrated model with the original simulation models showed an improvement in N excretion since the integrated model uses the dynamic model of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 6791 to predict microbial N, which was not represented in detail in the original model. The integrated model can be used to investigate the degree to which production and environmental objectives are antagonistic, and it may help to explain and understand the complex mechanisms involved at the ruminal and metabolic levels. A part of the integrated model outputs were the forms of N and P in excreta and methane, which can be used as indices of environmental pollution. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

A parametric model for the interval censored survival times of Acacia mangium plantation in a spacing trial

Survival times for the Acacia mangium plantation in the Segaliud Lokan Project, Sabah, East Malaysia were analysed based on 20 permanent sample plots (PSPs) established in 1988 as a spacing experiment. The PSPs were established following a complete randomized block design with five levels of spacing randomly assigned to units within four blocks at different sites. The survival times of trees in years are of interest. Since the inventories were only conducted annually, the actual survival time for each tree was not observed. Hence, the data set comprises censored survival times. Initial analysis of the survival of the Acacia mangium plantation suggested there is block by spacing interaction; a Weibull model gives a reasonable fit to the replicate survival times within each PSP; but a standard Weibull regression model is inappropriate because the shape parameter differs between PSPs. In this paper we investigate the form of the non-constant Weibull shape parameter. Parsimonious models for the Weibull survival times have been derived using maximum likelihood methods. The factor selection for the parameters is based on a backward elimination procedure. The models are compared using likelihood ratio statistics. The results suggest that both Weibull parameters depend on spacing and block.

Survival of Lactobacillus plantarum in model solutions and fruit juices

The aim of the work was to study the survival of Lactobacillus plantarum NCIMB 8826 in model solutions and develop a mathematical model describing its dependence on pH, citric acid and ascorbic acid. A Central Composite Design (CCD) was developed studying each of the three factors at five levels within the following ranges, i.e., pH (3.0-4.2), citric acid (6-40 g/L), and ascorbic acid (100-1000 mg/L). In total, 17 experimental runs were carried out. The initial cell concentration in the model solutions was approximately 1 × 10(8)CFU/mL; the solutions were stored at 4°C for 6 weeks. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the stepwise regression demonstrated that a second order polynomial model fits well the data. The results demonstrated that high pH and citric acid concentration enhanced cell survival; one the other hand, ascorbic acid did not have an effect. Cell survival during storage was also investigated in various types of juices, including orange, grapefruit, blackcurrant, pineapple, pomegranate, cranberry and lemon juice. The model predicted well the cell survival in orange, blackcurrant and pineapple, however it failed to predict cell survival in grapefruit and pomegranate, indicating the influence of additional factors, besides pH and citric acid, on cell survival. Very good cell survival (less than 0.4 log decrease) was observed after 6 weeks of storage in orange, blackcurrant and pineapple juice, all of which had a pH of about 3.8. Cell survival in cranberry and pomegranate decreased very quickly, whereas in the case of lemon juice, the cell concentration decreased approximately 1.1 logs after 6 weeks of storage, albeit the fact that lemon juice had the lowest pH (pH~2.5) among all the juices tested. Taking into account the results from the compositional analysis of the juices and the model, it was deduced that in certain juices, other compounds seemed to protect the cells during storage; these were likely to be proteins and dietary fibre In contrast, in certain juices, such as pomegranate, cell survival was much lower than expected; this could be due to the presence of antimicrobial compounds, such as phenolic compounds.

Investigation of the factors influencing the survival of Bifidobacterium longum in model acidic solutions and fruit juices

The survival of Bifidobacterium longum NCIMB 8809 was studied during refrigerated storage for 6 weeks in model solutions, based on which a mathematical model was constructed describing cell survival as a function of pH, citric acid, protein and dietary fibre. A Central Composite Design (CCD) was developed studying the influence of four factors at three levels, i.e., pH (3.2–4), citric acid (2–15 g/l), protein (0–10 g/l), and dietary fibre (0–8 g/l). In total, 31 experimental runs were carried out. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the regression model demonstrated that the model fitted well the data. From the regression coefficients it was deduced that all four factors had a statistically significant (P < 0.05) negative effect on the log decrease [log10N0 week−log10N6 week], with the pH and citric acid being the most influential ones. Cell survival during storage was also investigated in various types of juices, including orange, grapefruit, blackcurrant, pineapple, pomegranate and strawberry. The highest cell survival (less than 0.4 log decrease) after 6 weeks of storage was observed in orange and pineapple, both of which had a pH of about 3.8. Although the pH of grapefruit and blackcurrant was similar (pH ∼3.2), the log decrease of the former was ∼0.5 log, whereas of the latter was ∼0.7 log. One reason for this could be the fact that grapefruit contained a high amount of citric acid (15.3 g/l). The log decrease in pomegranate and strawberry juices was extremely high (∼8 logs). The mathematical model was able to predict adequately the cell survival in orange, grapefruit, blackcurrant, and pineapple juices. However, the model failed to predict the cell survival in pomegranate and strawberry, most likely due to the very high levels of phenolic compounds in these two juices.

A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: a Bayesian approach

In this paper we deal with a Bayesian analysis for right-censored survival data suitable for populations with a cure rate. We consider a cure rate model based on the negative binomial distribution, encompassing as a special case the promotion time cure model. Bayesian analysis is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also present some discussion on model selection and an illustration with a real dataset.

A bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data: local influence and residual analysis

The use of bivariate distributions plays a fundamental role in survival and reliability studies. In this paper, we consider a location scale model for bivariate survival times based on the proposal of a copula to model the dependence of bivariate survival data. For the proposed model, we consider inferential procedures based on maximum likelihood. Gains in efficiency from bivariate models are also examined in the censored data setting. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data. Sensitivity analysis methods such as local and total influence are presented and derived under three perturbation schemes. The martingale marginal and the deviance marginal residual measures are used to check the adequacy of the model. Furthermore, we propose a new measure which we call modified deviance component residual. The methodology in the paper is illustrated on a lifetime data set for kidney patients.