La estructura a plazos del riesgo interbancario

Este documento propone un modelo para la estructura a plazos del riesgo interbancario a partir del spread entre los Interest Rate Swap (IRS) y los Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS) en dólares durante la crisis financiera 2007-08 y la crisis del euro en 2010. Adicionalmente hace la descomposición del riesgo interbancario entre riesgo de default y no-default (liquidez). Los resultados sugieren que la crisis financiera tuvo importantes repercusiones en la estructura a plazos del riesgo interbancario y sus componentes: en los años previos a la crisis, el riesgo de no-default explicaba la mayor parte del riesgo interbancario; durante la crisis y posterior a ella, el riesgo de default conducía el comportamiento del riesgo interbancario. Adicionalmente, se encuentra que, a partir de la estructura a plazos de cada componente del riesgo interbancario, la crisis financiera se caracterizó por ser un problema más de corto que de largo plazo, en contraste con la crisis del euro de 2010. Estos resultados siguen lo propuesto por Filipovic & Trolle (2012) y dejan importantes implicaciones sobre el riesgo interbancario durante los periodos de stress financiero.

Reliability of GPS based traffic data: an experimental evaluation

GPS tracking of mobile objects provides spatial and temporal data for a broad range of applications including traffic management and control, transportation routing and planning. Previous transport research has focused on GPS tracking data as an appealing alternative to travel diaries. Moreover, the GPS based data are gradually becoming a cornerstone for real-time traffic management. Tracking data of vehicles from GPS devices are however susceptible to measurement errors – a neglected issue in transport research. By conducting a randomized experiment, we assess the reliability of GPS based traffic data on geographical position, velocity, and altitude for three types of vehicles; bike, car, and bus. We find the geographical positioning reliable, but with an error greater than postulated by the manufacturer and a non-negligible risk for aberrant positioning. Velocity is slightly underestimated, whereas altitude measurements are unreliable.

Um teste de paridade coberta de juros, ajustada por prêmio de risco, para a economia brasileira entre 2007 e 2010

O conceito de paridade coberta de juros sugere que, na ausência de barreiras para arbitragem entre mercados, o diferencial de juros entre dois ativos, idênticos em todos os pontos relevantes, com exceção da moeda de denominação, na ausência de risco de variação cambial deve ser igual a zero. Porém, uma vez que existam riscos não diversificáveis, representados pelo risco país, inerentes a economias emergentes, os investidores exigirão uma taxa de juros maior que a simples diferença entre as taxas de juros doméstica e externa. Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar se o ajustamento das condições de paridade coberta de juros por prêmios de risco é suficiente para a validação da relação de não-arbitragem para o mercado brasileiro, durante o período de 2007 a 2010. O risco país contamina todos os ativos financeiros emitidos em uma determinada economia e pode ser descrito como a somatória do risco de default (ou risco soberano) e do risco de conversibilidade percebidos pelo mercado. Para a estimação da equação de não arbitragem foram utilizadas regressões por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários, parâmetros variantes no tempo (TVP) e Mínimos Quadrados Recursivos, e os resultados obtidos não são conclusivos sobre a validação da relação de paridade coberta de juros, mesmo ajustando para prêmio de risco. Erros de medidas de dados, custo de transação e intervenções e políticas restritivas no mercado de câmbio podem ter contribuído para este resultado.

Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Hipertrofia ventricular esquerda e hipertensão arterial em renais crônicos submetidos a tratamento por hemodiálise: influência do nível de escolaridade

Pós-graduação em Bases Gerais da Cirurgia - FMB

Uma proposta de análise qualitativa de risco aplicada ao gerenciamento de resíduos de atenção animal

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Outpatient versus inpatient treatment for acute pulmonary embolism

Background: Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common life-threatening cardiovascular condition, with an incidence of 23 to 69 new cases per 100,000 people per year. Outpatient treatment instead of traditional inpatient treatment in selected non-high-risk patients with acute PE might provide several advantages, such as reduction of hospitalizations, substantial cost saving and an improvement in health-related quality of life. Objectives: To compare the efficacy and safety of outpatient versus inpatient treatment for acute PE for the outcomes of all-cause and PE-related mortality; bleeding; and adverse events such as hemodynamic instability, recurrence of PE and patients'satisfaction.Search methodsThe Cochrane Peripheral Vascular Diseases Group Trials Search Co-ordinator (TSC) searched the Specialised Register (last searched October 2014) and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2014, Issue 9). The TSC also searched clinical trials databases. The review authors searched LILACS (last searched November 2014). Selection criteria: Randomized controlled trials of outpatient versus inpatient treatment in people diagnosed with acute PE. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors selected relevant trials, assessed methodological quality, and extracted and analyzed data. Main results: We included one study, involving 339 participants. We ranked the quality of the evidence as very low due to not blinding the outcome assessors, the small number of events with imprecision in the confidential interval (CI), the small sample size and it was not possible to verify publication bias. For all outcomes, the CIs were wide and included clinically significant treatment effects in both directions: short-term mortality (30 days) (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.01 to 7.98, P = 0.49), long-term mortality (90 days) (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.06 to 15.58, P = 0.99), major bleeding at 14 days (RR 4.91, 95% CI 0.24 to 101.57, P = 0.30) and 90 days (RR 6.88, 95% CI 0.36 to 134.14, P = 0.20), recurrent PE within 90 days (RR 2.95, 95% CI 0.12 to 71.85, P = 0.51) and participant satisfaction (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.03, P = 0.30). PE-related mortality, minor bleeding, and adverse course such as hemodynamic instability and compliance were not assessed by the single included study. Authors' conclusions: Current very low quality evidence from one published randomized controlled trial did not provide sufficient evidence to assess the efficacy and safety of outpatient versus inpatient treatment for acute PE in overall mortality, bleeding and recurrence of PE adequately. Further well-conducted research is required before informed practice decisions can be made.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Rheumatoide Arthritis und Arteriosklerose : Bedeutung der zu Grunde liegenden chronisch entzündlichen Prozesse für die endotheliale Dysfunktion ; Wirkung der antiinflammatorischen Substanz Galiellalacton in murinen Arteriosklerosemodellen

Erhöhte arteriosklerotische und thrombotische Vorfälle sind ein Hauptgrund für die gesteigerten Zahlen kardiovaskulärer Todesfälle von Patienten mit chronisch entzündlichen Erkrankungen wie der rheumatoiden Arthritis (RA). Diese erhöhte Mortalität ist nicht auf die traditionellen Risikofaktoren, wie Alter, Geschlecht, Bluthochdruck oder Diabetes zurückzuführen. Man nimmt an, dass die systemische Entzündung einen nicht-traditionellen Risikofaktor für die erhöhten kardiovaskulären Todesfälle von RA-Patienten darstellt. Da die derzeitige Behandlung der RA zum Teil schwere Nebenwirkungen zur Folge haben kann, war es das Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit, die Zusammenhänge zwischen RA und Arteriosklerose (AS) näher zu untersuchen, sowie die neue antiinflammatorische Substanz Galiellalacton (Gal) für die Behandlung der AS zu charakterisieren.rnIn dem chronisch inflammatorischen Tiermodell der TTP-defizienten Mäuse, dessenrnPhänotyp dem einer humanen RA-Erkrankung ähnelt, konnte eine verschlechterternEndothelfunktion, die als ein erstes Symptom einer erworbenen AS gilt, nachgewiesen werden. Dies konnte auf eine erhöhte Stabilität der Nox2-mRNA zurückgeführt werden, die unabhängig von der erhöhten Expression des Entzündungsmarkers TNFα war. Diese gesteigerte Nox2-Menge führte wiederum zu einer erhöhten Bildung von reaktiven Sauerstoff- und Stickstoffspezies und somit zu einer verringerten Menge an bioaktivem Stickstoffmonoxid, welches die endotheliale Dysfunktion (eDF) bedingte.rnAls ein traditioneller Risikofaktor für das Auftreten von kardiovaskulären Ereignissen gilt unter anderem eine Diabeteserkrankung. Durch die Ausbildung einer Nitrattoleranz bei der Therapie mit organischen Nitraten wie NTG, ISMN oder ISDN kommt es zu der Entwicklung einer eDF. PETN, ein weiteres organisches Nitrat zeigt diese Nebenwirkung nicht. PETN, vermittelt seinen antioxidativen Effekt über die Nrf2-abhängige Induktion der HO-1-Promotoraktivität.rnDie Behandlung von arteriosklerotischen Mäusen (ApoE-/-- und ApoE-/-TFPI+/--Mäuse) mit dem antiinflammatorischen Pilzsekundärmetaboliten Gal zeigte eine verringerte mRNA-Expression von arteriosklerotischen und inflammatorischen Mediatoren, sowie eine reduzierte Thrombenbildung durch eine verringerte Plättchenadhäsion.rnZusammenfassend konnte gezeigt werden, dass inflammationsabhängiger oxidativerrnStress ein Hauptgrund für die entzündungsgetriebene Artheriogenese ist und Galrneine neue Leitsubstanz für die Behandlung dieser Erkrankung ist.

Safety and efficacy of thrombolysis with intravenous alteplase in older stroke patients.

Stroke is a common cause of death and persisting disability worldwide, and thrombolysis with intravenous alteplase is the only approved treatment for acute ischaemic stroke. Older age is the most important non-modifiable risk factor for stroke, and demographic changes are also resulting in an increasingly ageing population. However, clinical trial evidence for the use of intravenous alteplase is limited for the older age group where stroke incidence is highest. In this article, the current evidence regarding the safety and efficacy of intravenous thrombolytic therapy in stroke patients aged ≥80 years is critically analysed and the gap in current knowledge highlighted. In summary, intravenous thrombolysis in stroke patients aged ≥80 years seems to be associated with less favourable clinical outcomes and higher mortality than in younger patients, which is consistent with the natural course in untreated patients. The risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage does not appear to be significantly higher in the elderly group, suggesting that intracranial bleeding complications are unlikely to outweigh the potential benefit in this age group. Overall, withholding thrombolytic treatment in ischaemic stroke on the basis of advanced age alone is no longer justifiable.

Long-term outcome of patients with newly diagnosed chronic myeloid leukemia: a randomized comparison of stem cell transplantation with drug treatment.

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors represent today's treatment of choice in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is regarded as salvage therapy. This prospective randomized CML-study IIIA recruited 669 patients with newly diagnosed CML between July 1997 and January 2004 from 143 centers. Of these, 427 patients were considered eligible for HSCT and were randomized by availability of a matched family donor between primary HSCT (group A; N=166 patients) and best available drug treatment (group B; N=261). Primary end point was long-term survival. Survival probabilities were not different between groups A and B (10-year survival: 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69-0.82) vs 0.69 (95% CI: 0.61-0.76)), but influenced by disease and transplant risk. Patients with a low transplant risk showed superior survival compared with patients with high- (P<0.001) and non-high-risk disease (P=0.047) in group B; after entering blast crisis, survival was not different with or without HSCT. Significantly more patients in group A were in molecular remission (56% vs 39%; P=0.005) and free of drug treatment (56% vs 6%; P<0.001). Differences in symptoms and Karnofsky score were not significant. In the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, HSCT remains a valid option when both disease and transplant risk are considered.Leukemia advance online publication, 20 November 2015; doi:10.1038/leu.2015.281.

Interfaces between cardiovascular and kidney disease among Aboriginal Australians

Rates of kidney disease among several indigenous groups have been shown to be substantially higher than corresponding non-indigenous groups. This excess has been clearly shown among Aboriginal Australians with respect to both end-stage kidney disease and early kidney disease. Rates of cardiovascular disease among Aboriginal Australians are also very high, as are rates of diabetes, smoking, and possibly overweight and obesity. These factors have been traditionally linked with cardiovascular and renal disease as part of a broader metabolic syndrome. However, the links and interfaces between cardiovascular and kidney disease in this environment extend beyond these traditional factors. The factors associated with atherosclerosis have expanded in recent years to include markers of inflammation, some infection, antioxidants, and other non-traditional risk factors. Given the high rates of acute infection and poor living conditions endured by many indigenous people, one might expect these non-traditional risk factors to be highly prevalent. In this review, we explore the relationships between markers of inflammation, some serological markers of infection, and other selected markers and both cardiovascular and renal disease. In doing so, we demonstrate links between kidney and cardiovascular disease at a number of levels, beyond the traditional cardiovascular/renal risk factors. Many of these factors are beyond the control of the individual or even community; addressing these issues a broader focus and biopsychosocial model. (C) 2005 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

CYR61 and TAZ Upregulation and Focal Epithelial to Mesenchymal Transition May Be Early Predictors of Barrett’s Esophagus Malignant Progression

Barrett's esophagus is the major risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma. It has a low but non-neglectable risk, high surveillance costs and no reliable risk stratification markers. We sought to identify early biomarkers, predictive of Barrett's malignant progression, using a meta-analysis approach on gene expression data. This in silico strategy was followed by experimental validation in a cohort of patients with extended follow up from the Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa de Francisco Gentil EPE (Portugal). Bioinformatics and systems biology approaches singled out two candidate predictive markers for Barrett's progression, CYR61 and TAZ. Although previously implicated in other malignancies and in epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition phenotypes, our experimental validation shows for the first time that CYR61 and TAZ have the potential to be predictive biomarkers for cancer progression. Experimental validation by reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR and immunohistochemistry confirmed the up-regulation of both genes in Barrett's samples associated with high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma. In our cohort CYR61 and TAZ up-regulation ranged from one to ten years prior to progression to adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus index samples. Finally, we found that CYR61 and TAZ over-expression is correlated with early focal signs of epithelial to mesenchymal transition. Our results highlight both CYR61 and TAZ genes as potential predictive biomarkers for stratification of the risk for development of adenocarcinoma and suggest a potential mechanistic route for Barrett's esophagus neoplastic progression.

Introduction of African Swine Fever into the European Union through Illegal Importation of Pork and Pork Products

Transboundary animal diseases can have very severe socio-economic impacts when introduced into new regions. The history of disease incursions into the European Union suggests that initial outbreaks were often initiated by illegal importation of meat and derived products. The European Union would benefit from decision-support tools to evaluate the risk of disease introduction caused by illegal imports in order to inform its surveillance strategy. However, due to the difficulty in quantifying illegal movements of animal products, very few studies of this type have been conducted. Using African swine fever as an example, this work presents a novel risk assessment framework for disease introduction into the European Union through illegal importation of meat and products. It uses a semi-quantitative approach based on factors that likely influence the likelihood of release of contaminated smuggled meat and products, and subsequent exposure of the susceptible population. The results suggest that the European Union is at non-negligible risk of African swine fever.

The Controllership Relevance or Risk Management in non-Financial Companies: a study of risk managers` and controllers` perceptions

The purpose of this study is to analyze the Controllership relevance as support risk management in non-financial companies. Risk management is a widely discussed and disseminated subject amongst financial institutions. It is obvious that economic uncertainties and, consequently, prevention and. control must also exist in non-financial companies. To enable managers to take safe-decisions, it is essential for them to be able to count on instrumental support that provides timely and adequate information, to ensure lower levels of mistakes and risk exposure. However, discussion concerning risk management in non-financial companies is still in its early stages in Brazil. Considering this gap, this study aims at assessing how Controllership has been acting in? companies under the insight of risk and how it can contribute to risk management in non-financial companies. To achieve the proposed goal, a field research was. carried-out with non-financial companies that are located in the city Sao Paulo and listed in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The research was carried out using questionnaires, which were sent do Risk Officers and Controllers of those companies with the purpose of evaluating their perception on the subject. The results,of the research allow us to conclude that Controllership offers support to risk management, through information that contributes to the mitigation of the risks in non-financial companies.